4 minute read
Video Poker
by LINDA BOYD
Linda Boyd, a long-time table game player before turning to video poker, writes for “Southern & Midwest Gaming and Destinations”, “Arizona Player” and you can see her videos on YouTube find her book, “The Video Poker Edge” on Amazon and other book outlets.
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VIDEO POKER: “Good Luck Everyone”
Years ago, my sister Eileen and I took my mom to a Vegas casino where she purchased and quickly lost a $10 roll of quarters. That was her first, last and only venture into a gilded gambling hall, but not the last we heard of it. Every time she played her beloved bingo and the caller said “Good Luck Everyone” she responded with “How can everyone have good luck? My daughters took me to a Vegas casino and I lost my shirt!”
Lady Luck: My friend Ralph, an avid craps player, liked to say, “Lady Luck comes to visit, never to stay.” So true. I can honestly say I’ve had dealt RF’s (odds of being dealt a royal flush are1 in 650,000) and have had several royals in a day (the odds of a RF in 9/6 Jacks or Better are 1 in 40,391) but prior to the deal the odds remain a constant. (Note that being dealt a RF is a constant, 1 in 650,000, while getting a RF as a final hand varies depending on the VP game along with the game’s correct strategy.) The bottom line is that there’s no way of knowing whether you’re “walking around lucky” so relying on intuition, hunches or ‘luck’ is a waste of time.
Short Term: I use this to refer to a playing session and that varies between players. Some players erroneously use hunches and superstitions to deviate from computer-perfect play because they notice their short-term results are different from long term expectations. This is a potentially costly mistake and should be avoided.
Long Run: A large number of hands that must be played in order for the actual results of a game to closely resemble the ER (expected return). Some use several royal cycles which is the approximate number of hands to get a RF, around 40,000. So, if you use five royal cycles, for example, that would be around 200,000 hands. The more royal cycles, assuming accurate play, the greater the probability that actual results will resemble statistical expectations. This means that, although you can play incorrectly and win, the odds are against you if you do so.
House or Player Advantage: You may think that the casino always has the advantage and, mostly, they do. However, given that progressive games have a higher ER as the progressive meters grow along with the increased ER on multiple points days you can have either even odds or an advantage over the House. Volatility: The likelihood that, while playing the game, the session results will vary from the expected return. In high volatility games, both video poker and traditional slots, there is an increased likelihood that short term results will vary from long-term expectations. In lower volatility games the shortterm results have a greater likelihood of resembling long-term expectations. Variance: A measure of the game’s volatility and assigns a number to the likelihood that short-term results will differ from long-term expectations. Game Expectations: Table 1.1 shows two games with similar theoretical expectations but session results may widely vary. Table 1.1: 9/6 JOB Versus 9/6 DDB
Game Name 9/6 Jacks or Better (9/6 JOB) Expected Return 99.5439% Variance 19.51468
Game Name 9/6 Double Double Bonus (DDB) Expected Return 99.4061% Variance 51.93752
*Note that a 9/6 label here indicates the payout for a full house is nine times your wager and for a flush it’s six times your wager. All other hands with the same game name pay the same. Analyzing Table 1.1: Notice that the theoretical returns for both games are similar and, in fact, 9/6JOB has a slightly higher ER. However, there is a big difference in the variance of the two games, with 9/6 DDB having over double the variance of 9/6 JOB. This means the risk in 9/6 DDB is much higher and the short-term results are more likely to vary from long-term expectations. So, by choosing 9/6DDB you are relying more on Lady Luck in the short-term and realize that failure to get infrequent hands like 4 of-a-kinds and royals will adversely impact your return. Final Thoughts: My mom was absolutely right when, following the “Good Luck Everybody” statement, she shook her head in disbelief. If you choose a game with a high variance, say 9/6DDB be prepared for a high-speed roller coaster ride. Guess that’s why even bad versions of the game, like 8/5 DDB, are still popular on the gaming floor.
