PLAYER HORSERACING TIP: You Get What You Pay For

The longer I live, the more I subscribe to the adage, “You get what you pay for.” From larger purchases like houses and cars to smaller expenditures like food and wine, I truly believe that if you go cheap, you’ll regret what you reap. Proportionately, the aforementioned proverb positively proves true when we’re talking about thoroughbred horse racing.

I will be the first to admit there’s no guarantee attached to high priced horseflesh (take the Green Monkey for example, a $16 million dollar two year-old purchase back in 2006 who ultimately retired 0 for 3). Conversely, it is common knowledge that Medina Spirit (your 2021 Kentucky Derby Champion) was originally picked up at auction for a grand total of $1,000 (See what I did there?). Alas, I have followed the “Sport of Kings” long enough to know that the aforementioned “inverse instances” are certainly exceptions rather than the rule.

All told, the price an equine typically costs at auction can be a very valuable piece of information when it comes to handicapping a thoroughbred horse race. For example, in the minutes leading up to this year’s 1 3/16 mile Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, I noticed the Todd Pletcher trained Kingsbarns (who had easily won last time out in a 75k Optional Claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs) had been “bet down” a bit from his 6-1 morning line odds. At first glance, I thought the inflow of “action” on Kingsbarns was exclusively tied to the presence of his top tier trainer (Todd Pletcher) and rider (Flavien Prat). That was until I read the Racing Form’s fine print.

Assuming a thoroughbred was sold at auction, their sale price will usually be listed directly above their “past performance” (or running) lines. In this case, Kingsbarns (a son of the prolific sire Uncle Mo) was sold at Fasig-Tipton’s 2022 Gulfstream sale for (cue drum roll…) a whopping $800,000! When considered in conjunction with Kingsbarns’accomplishments, this key economic data “put me over the top” concerning my conviction that I had indeed bumped into a horse that could handle his forthcoming “step up” into Graded Stakes company.

Upon breaking clean from post #6, Kingsbarns proceeded to set sensible fractions as he led the Louisiana Derby field around the first turn and into the backstretch. Subsequent to being “shaken up” by Flavien Prat midway through the lane, Todd Pletcher’s latest protégé proceeded to power home by a comfortable 3 1/2 lengths. Truly the “easiest of winners” at day’s end, Kingsbarns returned $11.00 (or a 450% profit) for every $2 wagered.

Believe it or not, a very similar situation to the one I just described played out inside of this year’s edition of the Tampa Bay Derby. When the Racing Form came out, I noticed the #6 horse, Tapit Trice, (again trained by Todd Pletcher) was “stepping up” into Tampa Bay Downs’ 1 1/16 mile Grade 3 feature contest off of an effortless 8 length victory in a $75K Optional Claiming race. Already assuming this racer was “live” (since Todd Pletcher at the time owned a record five Tampa Bay Derby titles), my suspicions were affirmed when I noticed Tapit Trice had sold for $1.3 million at Keenland’s 2021 September yearling sale. The eventual winner of the Tampa Bay Derby by 2 widening lengths, Tapit Trice is thus another recent racer that lived up to their pecuniary hype.

As we start to wind down, I feel that I am obligated to make something abundantly clear. I am by no means saying that you should ever risk your entire bankroll on a horse simply because they sold at auction for seven figures. Rather, the angle we have outlined in this column should be employed primarily in those situations where a pricey pony has already demolished lesser foes and is now facing Stakes Company for the first time.

In summation, remember that at day’s end; the sort of people who have $1 million dollars to spend on a thoroughbred racehorse are the same individuals who have a team of proven industry experts working for them that can spot future Champions from a mile away. Each armed with a proven track record of multiplying their clients’ cash; these specialists are also forever augmenting their IQ when it comes to those vital nuances like pedigree, conformation, and equine body-language. Hence, the next time you see a “sales-topper” strut into the winners’ enclosure, know that for those who bet said beast, it wasn’t as hard as splitting an atom. It’s just that in horse racing (typically), “You get what you pay for”.

by ERIC FLOYD