Improving Safe Driving Conditions on Oregon’s Highways
Advice for Travelers From a Traveler Klamath The Undiscovered County $50 Million Awarded To Make Schools Safer
Growing Wings:
How Angels Are Widening The Investment Pool
A Few Words From Greg: The differences in Oregon’s landscape are truly amazing. Consider the incredible 363 miles of coastline and then imagine the waterfalls in the middle stripe of Oregon, and move your mind’s eye to the eastern side of the mountains where arid stretches of land put the beauty of near-desert on display. How we can be fortunate enough to have all of this in our state causes us to pause. But, there’s more. We also have colleges and universities, manufacturers and inventors, fishermen, farmers and white collar business people, doctors and health care professionals and hundreds of entrepreneurs to make it whole. Even more amazing is that all of that can be found in the six counties of Southwest Oregon. You will find in this issue of the Southern Oregon Business Journal a variety of subjects reflecting that array of the possible. It is inspirational enough to keep the effort for improvement in all we do in full throttle. Let’s tell the world about our home. Take care, Greg Henderson, Publisher greg@southernoregonbusiness.com
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Southern Oregon Business Journal, 703 Divot Loop, Sutherlin, Oregon 97479 www.southernoregonbusiness.com
Contents
May 15, 2016
cover story 19 Growing Wings: How Angels Are Widening The Investment Pool | Jonathan Ortmans
features 3 $50 Million Awarded to Make Schools Safer | Senator Peter Courtney 5 Improving Safe Driving Conditions on Oregon's Highways
Barry Robinson General Manager •••••
barry@amerititle.com (541) 672-6651 Fax: (541) 672-5793
7 Klamath: The Undiscovered County
AmeriTitle is proud to announce the 10 The Miracle Minute: Inch by Inch | Dick Warn availability of ACH capabilities for both our Borrowers and 11 Down to Business | Arlene M. Soto Lenders. ACH payment handling 13 News & Research Communications - OSU Receives Grant to will eliminate delays in mail and lost checks allowing us to Expand Research in Computational Sustainability provide a more efficient service to you. 14 New OSU Slug Expert Will Help Oregon Farmers Combat The Slimy Pests | Gail Wells 16 Advice for Travelers From a Traveler | Wendy E. Simmons
1495 NW Garden Valley Blvd Roseburg, OR 97471
22 Moving to Moville | Shari Burke 24 On Credibility | Timothy Duy 27 The Best of All Worlds
advertisers 2 AmeriTitle 10 Cardinal Services, Inc. 29 Gary Leif
www.SouthernOregonBusiness.com
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$50 Million Awarded to Make Schools Safer Oregon took a big step Thursday toward making more school children safe in an earthquake. A total of $50.3 million in grants was awarded to fund seismic safety upgrades at 41 schools from Baker City to Tillamook and Medford to Hood River. In the first six years of the grant program a total of just $34 million had been awarded to fund fixes at 37 schools. In the Mid-Valley, Turner Elementary School, Whitworth Elementary in Dallas, Jefferson Elementary, Victor Point School in the Silver Falls District and St. Paul Elementary will all get major safety upgrades. Thursday was a big day, but we’re not finished. We’re not even close. Too many schools remain unsafe. Too many children remain at risk. A 2007 survey conducted by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries listed more than 1,000 school buildings in Oregon at high or very high risk of collapse in a major earthquake.
So many of Oregon’s schools are at risk because until the early 1990’s, geologists did not consider Oregon a likely site for major earthquake activity and buildings weren’t constructed in a manner to survive earthquakes. The discovery of the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the Oregon Coast changed that perception. Seismologists now conclude that a major earthquake has taken place off the Oregon Coast an average of every 300 years for the past 10,000 years. The last such quake took place in January 1700. That was 316 years ago. We are overdue for the next really big one. The good news is that we have momentum. In 2015, the Legislature approved a record $175 million investment in seismic safety grants for schools. Last fall, Business Oregon, the agency that oversees the grant program, received 107 applications seeking $123.3 million. The $50 million awarded Thursday is just the beginning. Unfunded applications will be rolled over into the second round – expected to total $125 million in grants – and considered with new applications which will be accepted over the summer. As you can see, interest in the program is at an all-time high. We have to keep it that way. In the 2017 session, I will ask my fellow lawmakers to approve $200 million for the program in the next biennium. We made more progress Thursday than we made in the last decade, but we’re on borrowed time. We can’t lose our momentum. We still have a lot of work to do.
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-Senator Peter Courtney Senate President
Two Contrasting Models of Lithospheric Structure The subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath North America changes markedly along the length of the subduction zone, notably in the angle of subduction, distribution of earthquakes, volcanism, geologic and seismic structure of the upper plate, and regional horizontal stress. To investigate these characteristics, we conducted detailed density modeling experiments of the crust and mantle along two transects across the Cascadia subduction zone. One crosses Vancouver Island and the Canadian margin, and the other crosses the margin of central Oregon. Both density models were constructed independently to a depth of approximately 50 km. We gathered all possible geologic, geophysical, and borehole data to constrain the density calculations. The final densities for the Oregon and Vancouver lithosphere models were obtained from gravity inversions. Our results confirm that the downgoing slab of the Cascadia subduction zone dips significantly steeper beneath Oregon than beneath Vancouver Island, lending support to the idea that the Juan de Fuca plate is segmented from north to south. In addition, our gravity models indicate that the mantle wedge beneath western Oregon (i.e., below the western Cascades) is lighter than the mantle beneath the Canadian continental crust. This low density agrees with the low mantle velocities observed in the mantle and the present day extensional regime of the Pacific Northwest.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/crust/cascadia.php
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Improving Safe Driving Conditions on Oregon’s Highways U.S. 97 Milepost 190 Wildlife Crossing Project Components: • Construct a wildlife crossing in the vicinity of milepost (MP) 190 on U.S. 97. • Install fencing on either side of the crossing structure to direct wildlife to the Why this project is needed: U.S. Highway 97 is a critical part of the State’s transportation system and is a major north-south corridor between California and Washington, and is designated a statewide freight route. Keeping highways in good condition and providing a safe, efficient transportation system that supports economic opportunity is a critical part of the Oregon Department of Transportation's mission. The problem of deer-vehicle collisions on U.S. 97 has long been recognized as a public safety issue. Mule deer herds typically move across the highway to winter east of U.S. 97 and move west toward their summer range in the spring. Although not as commonly struck during road crossings, the highway also bisects important elk habitat. The proposed project involves installing a wildlife crossing to improve highway safety and habitat connectivity. This project is within a section U.S. 97 with high incidents of deer-vehicle collisions, an ODOT statewide high priority wildlife collision hot spot, a statewide high priority wildlife linkage zone, and a known mule deer migration corridor. The project proposal is to construct a wildlife crossing on U.S. 97 at MP 190, located approximately four miles south of Crescent, Oregon. The proposed location is situated where the highway fill is so deep that it functions as a barrier to wildlife movement across U.S. 97. The most recent deer carcass count identified 35 road-kill deer and elk (mostly deer) in a two mile section (MP 189-191) over the last four years (2010-2014). The current average daily traffic for this section of U.S. 97 is 4000 and this is projected to increase to 5000 by 2033. Wildlife-vehicle collisions are expected to increase as traffic increases. 5
What ODOT is proposing: In collaboration with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, ODOT studied two different wildlife crossings: an undercrossing and an overcrossing. The team made an assumption that either crossing would need to accommodate four lanes of traffic on U.S. 97 (there is currently only one lane in each direction at the potential location) and meet freight mobility standards (lane widths and height restrictions). The undercrossing would be located 150 feet north of the 190 mile marker on U.S. 97 in a deep highway fill. Both a bridge and a culvert (box and arch) were considered. This location is in a natural drainage that wildlife would typical use for movement. From a wildlife perspective, a bridge on U.S. 97 over the drainage would be the preferable structure for the undercrossing as it is less confining and easier for wildlife to see from one side to the other, which would lead to a higher probability of use. Two bridges built for wildlife undercrossings near Lava Butte on U.S. 97 are functioning very well. The overcrossing would be located at the 189.8 mile marker in between two cut slopes. The current design is a buried arch bridge that is 130’ wide and 85’6” between foundation centerlines. The length of the bridge was determined by how wide the crossing on top needed to be to make wildlife comfortable using it. The top of the structure would be native surfacing to mimic the surrounding terrain.
maker. Biologists felt either option would work for wildlife, assuming a bridge was selected as the preferred structure for the undercrossing. Even though the cost of building each structure (between $1.5-2 million) was about the same, the additional roadwork (detour) needed to construct the bridge would make the overall cost higher. The impact on traffic would be less constructing the overcrossing.
Current Status: Although conceptual design is complete, this project is on hold until funding can be identified.
Both options would require fencing on each side of the highway to direct wildlife to the structures. The location of the fence ends is a critical component of any wildlife passage project because they are likely to result in increased animal crossings (“hot spots”) at those points. Therefore, It is important for driver safety to locate the ends of the fence where road, topography, and vegetation conditions provide drivers the greatest opportunity to see animals as they approach and cross the highway. For either structure, the current plan is to end of the fencing approximately one half mile south and 2.2 miles north of the structure locations in order to meet the above criteria. After analyzing the two options, the team recommended constructing the overcrossing at the 189.8 mile 6
Klamath:
The Undiscovered County
Educated Workforce Advantage
• Workers’ compensation premium index rates are under $1.50, among the best in the nation. Oregon is one of only 10 states with rates below $1.50.
Our Educated Workforce is Ready to Work for You Educated Workforce Our labor force is 30,000 strong and growing. Klamath County’s work ethic is rooted in agriculture and diversified through 3100 employers, and 60+ academic programs offered by Oregon Tech and Klamath Community College. More than 700 local college graduates are ready for work each year. Nearly 60% of our population is between the ages of 20 and 64, with an even split male/female. Best of all, Klamath County workers are not tied up by just one or two big employers. More than 3,100 establishments make up our job market. One-third of these employers have between 5 and 49 employees, while 63% have 1 to 4 employees. Approximately 30 employers in Klamath County have more than 50 people. This means our residents have diverse skills, experiences and aspirations. 7
• Klamath County’s average hourly wage across all occupations is $18.22. • 88% of the population in Klamath County has at least a high school diploma. • 30% of the population in Klamath County has a college degree. • Klamath County has a desirable mix of 64% blue collar workers and 35% white collar.
Experienced Workforce
Klamath Community College
Local economic sectors that significantly contribute to our workforce’s experience include agriculture, aviation/defense, construction, distribution, education, energy, forestry, health care, manufacturing, recreation, real estate, services, and technology. We’re proud to be home to: Kingsley Field and the 173rd Fighter Wing of the Air National Guard; energy establishments like Eco Solar, Geo-Heat Center at OIT, Pacific Power, and Iberdrola; technology companies like Asurion and ESI; wood products companies such as Borror Cabinets, Collins Products, Columbia Forest Products, JELD-WEN, and Sturdi-Craft; agricultural businesses such as Wong’s Potatoes, Malin Potato Co-op, Cerule extracts, and Gone Fishing aquaculture; inventive fabrication companies such as Bell Hardware, Carriage Works, and Production Metal Forming, Inc.
KCC offers more than 20 two-year programs, one-year programs and certificates tailored for today’s marketplace. Accredited through the Northwest Commission on Colleges and Universities, KCC provides essential workforce training tailored to workers in specific regional businesses and industries. With its new 21,750 square foot Work Skills Technology Center, the college is offering 5 more technical programs: Aviation Airframe, Business Technology, Computer Engineering Technology, Media Marketing/Web Development, Health Information Management, and Advanced Manufacturing. KCC also has designated space for customized contract training for local businesses.
The collaborative relationship between Boeing Company and Oregon Tech is a prime example of how valuable Oregon Tech is to industry. Every year, Boeing recruits heavily from the college’s various engineering and management programs. To employees of Boeing in the Seattle area, Oregon Tech offers Mechanical Engineering and several other degrees, professional association review classes, and certificates. It’s a long-standing relationship that benefits all involved. Another reason for the high quality of Klamath County’s workforce is the industry-responsive educational programs available through Oregon Tech and Klamath Community College. They are both excellent partners in sector-based initiatives, successfully forging career pathways for their graduates.
Oregon Tech
“Building strong workforce capacity in the Klamath Basin is a major priority for Klamath Community College.” — Roberto Gutierrez, KCC President Oregon State University OSU operates a research and extension center in Klamath Falls, with an emphasis on agricultural, livestock, and community health and nutrition. Klamath County Extension agents work with farmers, farm supply companies, agricultural product processors, and other agribusiness professionals. Oregon Health & Science University
OHSU is intricately involved in the Klamath Basin. OHSU’s School of Medicine has been administering Oregon Tech is internationally acclaimed for generating virtually all of its own electrical power through the Cascades East Family Medicine Residency Program clean renewables – geothermal and solar. Oregon Tech was in Klamath Falls since 1994. In 2014, OHSU chose Klamthe first to offer a Bachelor of Science in Renewable Energy ath Falls as the academic headquarters for OHSU’s Rural Engineering and was recently ranked by the Solar Power Campus, deploying residents throughout its program area. Authority as the #1 academic institution for students inter- Additionally, OHSU offers a bachelor of science in nursing ested in pursuing a degree in renewable energy technolothrough the Oregon Tech campus. gies. UC Berkeley was ranked #2 on that list while Stanford came in at #5. Oregon Tech is consistently ranked as one of the best undergraduate engineering programs by U.S. News & World Report and as the top public college in the Western Region. Oregon Tech averages 620 graduates each year. 9
The Miracle Minute: Inch by Inch Have you ever wondered...while listening to Bach, Beethoven, or Mozart...how one person could write such music? Or have you driven to Mt. Rushmore and wondered about the people who carved those faces? It is amazing what can be done when we create a vision, add desire and have the courage to take that first step. First steps, however, are killers...when fear takes over. Who knows how high you can fly, what discoveries you can make or what services you can provide? No one! And, when you don’t take that first step...you will always wonder what might have been. There is no fail-safe way to truly live, so the next time you are thinking about doing something and fear attempts to change your mind, remember what these two men have shared: Dick Warn is a professional speaker, author, trainer, coach and team builder. He has set national sales records in two industries and is one of those people who cuts through the fog and deals with reality, while retaining a sense of humor.
"Whatever the mind can conceive and believe -- it can achieve. " -Napoleon Hill "Inch by inch, everything is a cinch." -Dr. Robert H. Schuller
dickwarn@themiracleminute.com www.TheMiracleMinute.com
We're ready to provide customized workplace solutions for your business www.cardinal-services.com | 800.342.4742 Human Resources / Staffing / Payroll Services Company
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Down to Business
 By Arlene M. Soto CMA, Southwestern Small Business Development Center Director
A look at small business questions from the Southwestern Oregon Community College Small Business Development Center (SBDC). 11
Why is it important to set business goals? Goals focus attention on achieving desirable outcomes. They are powerful. In business, one desirable outcome would be profitability. Profitability does not happen without making sales plus managing expenses. Employees prefer to know what management expects them to accomplish and goals provide that direction. The human brain has amazing abilities to solve problems and goals channel brain power toward finding solutions. Whether business goals are to set company direction or provide motivation, they should be specific, measurable, achievable and timely. Let’s go back to the profitability goal mentioned previously. A company goal: “Acme Company will be profitable” is not very specific. How profitable? Are there enough customers to achieve that? By when will profitability be reached? How will you know the company is profitable? A better way to state that goal is: Acme Company will attain a 10% net profit margin by the end of 2016 based on sales of 100,000 units. Now it’s possible to plan action steps to reach that goal and adjust the progress toward attaining the goal if necessary. Once in a while, management will want to change the course of an organization by motivating employees to reach higher. Jim Collins and Jerry Porras, in their book Built to Last talk about big, hairy, audacious goals (BHAGs). One of my favorite examples of a BHAG occurred May 25, 1961 when then President John F. Kennedy announced the ambitious goal of sending an American safely to the moon before the end of the decade. That goal was achieved on July 20, 1969. In 1961 no one knew exactly how to make that happen but the goal inspired many to work toward a desirable outcome. The brain power of many was channeled toward finding a solution. I often hear from small business owners, “I tried setting goals but it just doesn’t work for me. I’m so busy with the day to day operation of my business I don’t have time to focus on a goal some
where in the future.” If BHAGs are too much to focus on, try setting smaller goals that are attainable. For instance, if increasing the number of units sold is the goal, commit to talking with at least one potential new customer this week. If they aren’t walking in the door to your business, then talk to strangers you meet in the grocery store or in a restaurant. If that is uncomfortable try reaching out using social media. Goals that have been achieved are an opportunity for celebration. Successful companies set goals that support the business mission and recognize employees for a job well done. Even a sole proprietor can benefit from goal setting and celebrating accomplishments. What desirable outcomes would you like to achieve? Now is the time to create goals to make those outcomes happen.
The SBDC is a partnership of the U.S. Small Business Administration, the Oregon Small Business Development Center Network, the Oregon Business Development Department and Southwestern Oregon Community College. Arlene M. Soto has been the Director of the Southwestern Small Business Development Center since July 2007. To ask a question call 541-756-6445, e-mail asoto@socc.edu, or write 2455 Maple Leaf North Bend, OR 97459 Additional help is available at the OSBDCN Web page www.bizcenter.org 12
News & Research Communications OSU receives grant to expand research in computational sustainability
CORVALLIS, Ore. – With a $10 million grant from the National Science Foundation, researchers at Oregon State University are partnering with 11 other universities and organizations to expand computer science research on projects that impact sustainability. OSU and Cornell University are the lead institutions on this initiative, which includes projects related to conservation, poverty mitigation and renewable energy. The five-year award is a renewal of a previous grant that sparked research at OSU in wildfire management, precision agriculture, and bird migration modeling. “Not only are there really interesting computational problems related to how we can save the planet, but it’s our duty to study these problems,” said Tom Dietterich, a distinguished professor of computer science in the OSU College of Engineering and a principal investigator on the grant. The institutions involved in the grant form a large community of computer science experts, called CompSustNet, to serve as a resource for other researchers studying sustainability issues. CompSustNet will be a virtual research lab, including educational, community building, and outreach activities to ensure that advanced computational technology is routinely incorporated into sustainability projects. The research at OSU includes experiments to maximize energy production of microbial fuel cells; a project that places weather sensors across Africa to form a network that aids small farmers; and modeling species migration to protect the migratory paths of endangered birds. 13
“OSU has long been a leader in sustainability-related fields such as ecological science and natural resource management,” Dietterich said. “We’re building on that strength and reputation to be a leader in studying the computational sides of those questions.”
About the OSU College of Engineering:
The OSU College of Engineering is among the nation's largest and most productive engineering programs. Since 1999, the college has more than tripled its research expenditures to $37.2 million by emphasizing highly collaborative research that solves global problems. It is a leader in signature research areas, including precision health, clean energy, resilient infrastructure and advanced manufacturing; and targeted strategic areas, including robotics, materials research and clean water.
New OSU Slug Expert Will Help Oregon Farmers Combat the Slimy Pests CORVALLIS, Ore. – Oregon farmers battling slugs in their fields will soon have a new ally in Rory McDonnell, a slug and snail expert who joins Oregon State University’s College of Agricultural Sciences this summer. McDonnell comes from a research position at the University of California at Riverside, where he studies novel ways to control the troublesome mollusks. His position is new, one of several made possible by a $14 million legislative investment in research and Extension work based at OSU. McDonnell plans to continue his studies on environmentally friendly slug control methods, including plant essential oils and biological control agents such as parasitoid flies and soil-dwelling nematode worms. His appointment also includes an Extension component, so he’ll be partnering with Oregon farmers to try some of his methods in their fields. Slugs are shell-less land-dwelling mollusks that crawl on their stomachs, and they're a chronic pest in Oregon’s farms and home gardens. The main culprit, said McDonnell, is the gray field slug (Deroceras reticulatum), a non-native species that was inadvertently brought into the U.S. from Europe. The slimy critter causes extensive damage in grass seed fields, "but it also feeds on many other crops: brassicas, a wide range of other vegetables, fruits, clovers, hops and nursery plants", McDonnell said. "In effect, it competes with us for food. Just about anything we grow, slugs love to feed on." Another molluscan pest, the European brown garden snail (Helix aspersa), infests nursery crops. The snail is a quarantine species in Oregon and California, which means plants shipped outside those states’ borders must be snail-free. Poison bait is the mainstay of agricultural slug and snail control, McDonnell said, but it can be expensive
Rory McDonnell, OSU's new slug expert, tracks his wily quarry in his native Ireland. Photo by Conor Dolan to use over large acreages, especially if it doesn’t work— which happens often, he said. “So one aspect of my research has focused on identifying new attractants that could aid in trapping pest slugs.” And yes, slugs do love beer—not the alcohol so much as the sugar and yeast, McDonnell said. “Research has shown that the water, sugar and yeast together do the trick.” He is also investigating natural predators, including certain flies, some of them native to Oregon, that prey on slugs. Another potential natural enemy is nematodes, microscopic soil-dwelling worms. McDonnell is currently studying one that kills pest slugs and snails. Developing more environmentally friendly control strategies, he said, will help not only farmers and gardeners but Oregon’s native slug and snail species, which are beneficial to the environment. “The banana slug is one Northwest native species that most people would recognize,” McDonnell said. “Banana slugs perform important functions in forested ecosystems, helping to break down decomposing vegetation and return nutrients to the soil.” 14
A native of Ireland, McDonnell has a doctorate in environmental science and has worked to conserve native slugs and snails in his home country. He became fascinated with slugs as a child, when he learned that they have teeth sharper than those of sharks and can crawl unharmed over broken glass. “I know slugs are not as attractive as butterflies or colorful beetles,” he said, “but I guess I just followed my passion. As a result, I am one of the few people in the world who works exclusively on slugs and snails.” He will join the OSU faculty on July 16. “This is a dream position for me,” he said. “Oregon is a great place to be a slug person.” The Oregon legislature in 2015 allocated $14 million in additional funds to Oregon’s three statewide public services, all headquartered at OSU: the OSU Extension Service, Oregon Agricultural Experiment Station and Oregon Forest Research Laboratory. The funding boosts a base budget of $118 million for 2015-16 and makes possible new research, development and outreach work in such areas as specialty seed breeding, seafood safety, rangeland ecology, juniper harvest and manufacturing, and community economic development.
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Author: Gail Wells Source: Rory McDonnell
Advice for Travelers From a Traveler
Wendy E. Simmons photographer, writer, intrepid world traveler. Chief Brand Officer, MOSCOT. Author of “My Holiday in North Korea” wendysimmons.com, www.facebook.com/wendyesimmons
I’ve been to 85 countries and therefore consider myself to be a fairly seasoned traveler. Today I offer you advice on a few travel-related matters, answering those questions I am most frequently asked.
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My favorite place?
Best place for a girls’ weekend?
This is an impossible question everyone always asks me, and here’s my answer: I love everywhere I go. I literally fall in love immediately with every place I go, and want to move there immediately, until it’s time to go to the next place, and then I fall in love with that place instead. Wherever I am, I love it unconditionally, and never want to leave. But within mere seconds of leaving, I’m over it. It’s someplace I will always remember with love, but I cannot wait to get to the next place! I am an ardent, ephemeral lover of all lands.
Anywhere is the right place for a girls’ weekend, except perhaps Saudi Arabia, Syria, Somalia, Niger, Afghanistan, or Iraq.
Favorite islands? Okay, this is also an impossible question. Islands are just places surrounded by water, and I love all places surround by water too. I love all islands for different reasons, including Manhattan. Let’s see... Los Roques, Tobago Cays, Mustique, Kauai, really all of the Hawaiian Islands, Palawan. I could truly go on and on... but that’s a start.
Where is the best place you’ve ever snorkeled? Hands down, the Philippines. Around Palawan, but also Busuanga. Grenadines, also not bad. Oh, Blue Hole or whatever it’s called in Belize. And I remember really enjoying snorkeling in Sinai. Great Barrier Reef of course. But Philippines for sure.
Which websites do you use to book flights? I usually start on Kayak, and then cross-reference the airline’s own websites and Hipmunk, but 99% of the time, I book on the airline’s site. Unless you’re willing to put in the time and effort required to take advantage of airline pricing practices, which I’m not, then the fare is the fare is the fare. I have worked with many travel consultants over the years, and have a lot of friends in the travel industry, and no one ever finds lower fares than the ones I’m able to find myself.
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What is the most challenging trip you’ve ever been on? Challenging mentally, North Korea. Challenging physically, Chad, Republic of Congo, and the High Arctic in Norway. Chad and ROC are two of my favorite and best trips ever. I LOVED, loved, loved both, but objectively speaking, conditions were something you have to be ready for and excited about because they aren’t typical, and the Arctic Circle in December... is the coldest I have ever been, but it is as otherworldly as it is gorgeous. North Korea was grim, but fascinating and important, and it has literally changed my life. Travel anywhere is always important and valuable, regardless of the circumstances while there.
Favorite airline? I’m sure Emirates First Class doesn’t suck. But since you’ll find me in economy, I don’t really care. Whichever flight gets me there with no stops, or the fewest stops, and costs the least, and flies at the most convenient times, is my favorite. I’ve been loyal to American some years and United others, but I’ve flown every airline out there. Okay, maybe not all — I haven’t flown Whizzair, for example — but almost all, and in economy, they are all more or less the same. Some economy overnight flights to Paris and Milan on American Airlines lack individual entertainment screens, so avoid those if you care about watching movies, and Norwegian’s Upper Class is, in my opinion, not worth the extra money. I flew it home from London once and aside from a larger seat, the additional $700 earned me a boxed, cold meal, and one — ONE — complimentary glass of wine. On international flights, every other airline on the planet lets the wine flow freely... even in economy. Although to be fair, the plane was brand spankin’ new, and their Economy Class looked lovely.
I have kids. Where should I go?
What five things must you always have on a plane? I’d panic without socks, an e-reader, a coat and/ or many warm layers, my inflatable neck pillow, earbuds, and because this is my column so I can go over the allotted number if I want to, Aquaphor for my lips, iPhone for music, and a bottle of water.
Five essential items you always pack?
First, good for you bringing your children! My mom brought us with her when she traveled and not only did it change the entire dynamic of our family - bringing us closer and making us better friends - those years traveling together contributed to both my love of travel, and who I am today. The “where” to go isn’t nearly as important as the “going” itself. But in my opinion, skip Disneyland in favor of real lands. Exposing children to different cultures, religions, and ways of life from a young age teaches openness, tolerance, acceptance, and an approach to thinking that really can change the world.
What type of camera do you use? A Canon EOS 5D Mark III, with the same Canon 24-105mm lens I’ve had for at least 15 years. And my iPhone’s camera. I never switch lenses. I shoot in P (automatic for raw). And I never use a flash. I’m more of a “composition” kind of photographer than a “skill” photographer.
Where do you want to go next?
I am loath to answer this question for fear others will Per above, earbuds, iPhone, and my e-reader, but also chargers/adapters, medical bag, and a pen. (More go there first. I know this is not very nice or generous of me, but I’m not able to travel right now, so if I tell you than five, but again... my column.) and you go there first, I will feel sad, envious, and anxious — three emotions I like feeling the least - that the Favorite cruise? place will be overrun with tourists and change before I have the chance to get there. But... I truly believe trav I once went on a cruise to nowhere. That’s el changes lives in ways too positive to keep places for what it was called: The Cruise to Nowhere. And it myself, so here goes: Sudan, Algeria, Greenland, Faroe literally went nowhere. The boat just rode around in Islands, Bolivia, Chile, Guyana, and then everywhere a giant circle for three days while everyone on board else in the world I haven’t been yet. Eventually I also repartied. It was for my friend’s sister’s 50th birthday, and I was totally out of my league party- wise. I’m like ally want to go to the Seychelles and Maldives, but they just seem too honeymooney to me right now. a two-drink-and-done girl. Don’t go on that cruise if
you want to see anything. But if you want to drink coWhat do you like least about travel? pious amounts of alcohol on a vessel that rocks, then top marks. For incredible views, the famous journey When a great trip comes to an end. on the Hurtigruten from Tromsø to Kirkenes in the High Arctic was out of this world. I went in December Have a question? I’m happy to answer. Find/follow me on Facebook for so it was also freaking cold. Opening the door to go more conversation. To find out more about my work and latest news, out onto the deck was like opening the gates to hell, please visit wendysimmons.com and while you’re there, sign up for my newsletter so you won’t miss a thing. only cold. But the light illuminating the icebergs was like nothing I’ve ever seen. 18
Growing Wings:
How Angels are Widening the Investment Pool By Jonathan Ortmans 04/04/16
In my post last week, I looked at the transformation underway in the early-stage investment sector, looking at how the rise of angel investing has many benefits for both entrepreneurs and the cities and states that reap economic rewards from successful new ventures. We continue the conversation this week by looking at future trends in the investment field that might influence ways in which national, state and local policymakers are trying to encourage and support angel investors.
Angel Trend 1: More Angel Groups and Networks
Angel investors have traditionally acted on their own accord. However, angels who group together gain many benefits through pooling resources and forming a focal point for entrepreneurs seeking funding and expertise. It is therefore no surprise that networks are proliferating. As they do, the angel investment profession is developing more knowledge, skills and networks of individual members. Their ability, for example, to do more extensive due diligence than individual angels translates into stronger, and more successful investments. 19
Angel Trend 2: More Emphasis on Exits
The most common and attractive exit for angel investors is a merger or acquisition. In the past, later-stage investors – i.e., venture capital firms – took the lead in facilitating an exit for the early-stage investor. This is no longer the case. The traditional VC industry is itself transforming and many angels are now finding that the best exit is to grow the company to a sustainable stage. With this shift, many are now structuring their investments with the stated objective of exiting within five years. This trend is likely to accelerate.
Angel Trend 3: More Accelerators, More Demo Days Accelerators represent a small fraction of Angel deal flow. However, this is likely to increase with the rapid growth of accelerators and as more Angels and Angel Groups build relationships with local hubs and startup community actors.
Angel Trend 4: More Angels, More Cross Border Groups
In the words of John May, “Ideas travel first and
fastest. In the words of John May, “Ideas travel first and fastest. Technologies and techniques are usually next, then come pioneering individuals, and last comes capital.” Well, the angel genie is now out of the bottle. Transnational platforms such as GBAN are creating a common lexicon among angels. Technologies and techniques are traveling from developed markets to emerging markets and, increasingly, vice versa. Pioneering individuals and angel groups are now beginning to invest in multiple countries.
own money into new businesses, who have personal experience as an entrepreneur and an investor, and who know what policy reforms would make the most difference in boosting angel activity in their community, will ensure government resources are well allocated. The Global Business Angel Network (GBAN) led a GEC session following the Ministerial on how policymakers can more effectively increase the number of angel investors.
Angel Trend 5: Increasing Influence on Public Policy
Another new development that deserves attention by policymakers is the effect of new digital platforms, which are increasing access to traditional angel deals to the population at large. Recently, the SEC’s approved Title III of the 2012 Jumpstart Our Business Start-ups (JOBS) Act, which allows equity crowdfunding. This policy initiative could substantially affect angel investing. Before Title III approval, crowdfunding investors, who invest small amounts on an individual basis, were not eligible to receive an equity stake in the venture, so their motivation for backing a startup was for the chance to receive products, perks or rewards. The SEC’s approval changes this. It will change other things as well.
Many governments around the world are using policy levers to encourage angel investment, as noted by the co-authors of Angels Without Borders. For example, during the GEC, we learned about recent policy initiatives in Colombia, Turkey and South Africa, which involve co-investment funds, tax incentives, investment matching grant programs, investor training and readiness programs, and direct funding for incubators and other matchmaking services. While each of these require more study to determine their effectiveness, such diverse initiatives yield practical knowledge and insights relevant to our policymakers when they consider new rules to incentivize early-stage investments. This is one of the reasons why Maria Contreras-Sweet, the Administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration, led a ministerial-level meeting during the GEC. As policymakers seek ways to reduce the obstacles that angel investors face, angels themselves can point them in the right direction. One vital point to note is that public agencies clearly see angels and angel groups as critical sources of information for making informed decisions. Engaging with those who put their own money into new businesses, who have personal experience as an entrepreneur and an investor,
Angel Trend 6: In Comes the Crowd
As I discussed in a previous post, the opportunity to receive an equity share will expand the pool of potential investors in startups, widening the geographic reach and the variety of investor backgrounds. According to the Kauffman Foundation’s State of the Field, the general solicitation of equity capital has the potential to create a pre-seed capital market, i.e. a market for even earlier stages of the product development than that of the current angel investments. Angel Trend 7: Geographic Reach and a New Gravitational Equilibrium The impact of the JOBS Act on angel investors, and the startup sector more broadly, could be profound. Technology has already expanded the geographic reach
of angels and angel groups although the extent of the impact has been muted by the advantages of investing locally. The vast majority of angel investors continue to invest in local startups. The reason for this is due in large part to angels exposure to local entrepreneurs, and the ease of conducting due diligence on a local investment, which geographic proximity to the business makes this easier, as does quick access to local networks and familiarity with local markets. Moreover, experts tell us a great many angels are motivated by the desire to give back to their own community – and proximity aligns well with this, as it enables them to generate local value by leveraging local connections. As angel investing adapts to change, locality is likely to be impacted. However, these changes are unlikely to overcome the strong gravitation pull of the local ecosystem. Despite access to deals outside of their local community, proximity will continue to play a significant structural role in angel investors’ decision making. How the SEC’s decision opening the way to a new class of early-stage investor will affect this remains to be seen. But, because angels have an outsized impact on their local community – as I described last week, because the startups they support are more likely to
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succeed, they result in job creation and economic growth – policymakers must keep a close eye on the impact crowdfunding is having on the startup sector. Angel Trend 8: Skyrocketing Demand for Angels
As I mentioned above and last week, recent studies provide proof that angels increase the likelihood of startup success. As evident at the GEC, leading policymakers are reacting quickly by reducing the obstacles that angel investors face, and by planning new initiatives that aim to enlarge the pool of angel investors. More policymakers are learning how best to incentivize angel investments from those who know best: angels themselves.
Next month sees the United State’s leading angel conference – the Angel Capital Association annual meeting – in Philadelphia, on May 9 to 11. If policymakers want to look at some fresh ideas for increasing access to early stage capital, I encourage them to join me there.
Moving to Moville
by Shari Burke
Spring has arrived. This is always a tough time for me. My annual depression kicks in and I have to start to adjust. I can usually get used to it enough so that it becomes a sort of hum in the background of my life until the end of summer. I read a poem today and the last lines were, " Spring has arrived/ I must not despair." That describes me so well! This year I have also been coming to grips with the fact that we are moving--something I was completely unprepared for and not keen on doing. Bill was unhappy about a few things here, some of which could be remedied and some that could not. I was feeling quite happy here and knew that the things that bothered me could be easily fixed. I was feeling settled and he was not. So we had to decide what to do, since our lease here will be up next month and we were required to give a 35 day notice. We had planned a trip to Moville because we both wanted to see it and we were drawn to the shore path they have there. We booked a few nights in the Moville Boutique Hostel, which turned out to be an excellent place, and off we went on the bus. I liked the place. Bill loved As it happened, there was a place available to let. In our previous meanderings around sites like daft.ie, we had come across Moville, which is how we even knew about it, but there was almost never anyplace suitable available for long term letting.
But this time there was an apartment in a good spot that was not too big for us and with rent even less than we pay now. I had told Bill that if he really wanted to move, he would have to do all of the communication with letting agents--I'd done it the last two times and since he was the one who wanted to move, I figured it was his turn! He called the letting agent and set up an appointment to see the place. I had said if it looked like it would be OK, I would agree to move. It did and I did. We knew there were people behind us wanting to look at it and it was unlikely to be around for long, so we agreed to come back with the security deposit before we left town. I spent the next day sick in bed and Bill started having second thoughts. I told him that it really was up to him because I really had no interest in moving, although I could already see that there were plenty of things about Moville that will be quite good for us, and even better than Killybegs. By the following day I was feeling better and was extremely hungry besides! We went out to breakfast and walked around town for a couple of hours. He decided to go for it, so we went and handed over the security deposit. We will be going back on 30 March to pay the rent, sign the lease, and get the keys. Our wonderful friends and neighbours are escorting us up to Moville 22
with our stuff. It's about 2 hours away--still in Co Donegal (I really hope I never have to leave Donegal!!). I will really miss Killybegs and my cottage here at the Old Coast Guard Station. I will miss looking out the window at the garden and the harbour as I am cooking. I will miss the people--both the humans and Little Man Fergus. That said, there are some really good things that I am looking forward to in Moville. There is a local library branch there--tiny, but right around the corner from us. This means we will be able to request books and pick them up there. We will be able to pick books up at other branches when we are in other towns and return them locally. This is much more convenient than going into Donegal Town on a Thursday afternoon to do these things. The shore walk there is wonderful--goes from Moville to Greencastle along the shore of Lough Foyle and to where it meets the sea. We only went halfway when we were there and I fell in love with it. Looking forward to walking the entire trail. I can see myself spending a lot of time sitting on any of the many benches just reading, stitching, or writing while listening to the water and the birds. It is only a few minutes from our apartment. There is good bus service so we will be able to do lots of day trips to places like Letterkenny, Buncrana, and Derry, which is about 30 km south of Moville. One huge thing is that the apartment has electric storage heat! Hurray! We would not have taken it if it didn't, I think. One of the things we have both HATED here was the open fire. We could have had kerosene delivered to run the boiler that is in our shed or we could use the fire which has a back boiler. Both heat the water and the radiators. The immersion hot water tank can also be heated electrically. We were totally clueless about this open fire stuff, but did not really want to be dealing with kerosene deliveries and minimums and all of that, so we went with the fire. I can now say that I hope to never see an open fire again. Neither of us did well--coughing, clogging, bloody noses resulted. We found out that in order to have a fire hot enough to actually heat the radiators, we would have to burn coal. They burn a lot of coal in this country. Once we needed fires every night I had a constant taste of coal dust in my 23
mouth. We supplemented the coal with briquettes, some logs, and some turf that our neighbour gave us, but it was still expensive and I was always aware of the environmental costs. At least some of the electricity we use, both here and in Moville, is generated by wind. We had electric storage heat in Ballinrobe and it was wonderful--clean, efficient, easy to use, and no fumes or dust. So we move along. This would not have been my choice and I have shed a few tears, but Bill would have really regretted not going. He said if I did not like it he would stay in Killybegs, but I did like it and could see no reason to deny him this. I spent a few days feeling sad, but decided that that was enough of that and it was time to stop acting like a spoiled brat. With so many people sleeping rough and/or having no secure place to live, I am going from one wonderful place to another with my favourite person. There is much to be grateful for and to celebrate. So I will.
Shari Burke Killybegs, Co Donegal, Ireland Anthropologist, essayist, maker, avid reader, lifelong learner, feminist, minimalist, everyday artisan, and Buddhish secular humanist who tries to pay attention and walk lightly and respectfully on Mother Earth.
On Credibility By Timothy Duy Narayana Kocherlakota and David Andolfatto have been discussing the issue of Fed credibility. This is my effort to weigh in on the topic. I break the issue of credibility of monetary policy into two parts. The first I think of as “soft” credibility, or the perception that policy needs to follow a proscribed course due to some perceived promise. The second I think of as “hard” credibility, or the expectation that policymakers will pursue policies that maximize its odds of achieving its goals over the long run, price stability with maximum sustainable employment, regardless of perceived promises. We should encourage policymakers to pursue “hard” credibility and avoid communications or actions that lead to policy directed a t achieving “soft” credibility. Let’s step back to last summer. It was widely anticipated that the Fed would hike interest rates at the September 2015 FOMC meeting. Market turmoil in August, however, made the Fed think twice. It also encouraged no shortage of commentary urging the Fed to pursue what I consider “soft” credibility. Via Jon Hilsenrath at the Wall Street Journal: After months of forewarning by Federal Reserve officials that they are preparing to raise short-term interest rates, some international officials attending the Fed’s annual retreat here this week have a message: Get on with it already. Fed policy makers are wavering on whether to move rates up in September. Volatile stock prices, falling commodities, a strong dollar and signs of a deepening economic slowdown in China have created doubts at the U.S. central bank about the outlook for global growth. International officials have been saying for months they will be prepared when the Fed moves rates higher, a message that is being echoed as central bankers, academics, journalists and others converge now in Jackson Hole for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual symposium. “If you delay something that you were planning to do, then you leave the impression that your compass is different than what you led markets to believe,” Jacob Frenkel, chairman of J.P. Morgan Chase International and former head of the Bank of Israel, said in an interview Thursday. Market drama is increased by delay, he added. What I wrote: Hey, it's been a hard couple of weeks. Things changed. That certain rate hike became a lot less certain. Maybe that changes back by September 17. Maybe not. All of us Fed watchers probably won't come to agreement until September 16. Getting emotional and moralizing about change isn't going to stop it…Stocks dropped sharply. It is a clear sign, on top of other signs, that financial conditions are tightening ahead of the Fed, and arguably too much ahead of the Fed. If the Fed heeds that warning you have to remember that's their job. Smoothly functioning financial markets. Lender of last resort. All that stuff. Maybe things work out just fine if they don't heed that warning. I am not interested in taking that risk. Not enough upside for me. Ultimately, the Fed took a pass on the September meeting. That I consider favoring “hard” credibility over “soft” credibility. Rather than meet a perceived promise to hike, Yellen & Co. stood down in response to changing economic and financial conditions.
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Unfortunately, I fear the Fed took a wrong turn in the October meeting, setting up an expectation that a December hike was a certainty. Fed officials took much grief over their decision to skip September. Market participants subsequently priced out rate hikes for 2015. But the Fed had promised a hike, and they were damn well going to deliver. And they drove the message home in October with this line:
So the Fed wanted to raise rates just to teach markets a lesson? Maybe the message was ignored because it was the wrong thing to do and market participants expected the Fed to pursue "hard" over "soft" credibility? More telling was this line:
As a result, futures markets are now giving slightly better-than-even odds that rates will rise from near zero next month, compared with mid-October when the odds were less than 30 percent. In contrast, economists polled by Reuters have been leaning towards a December rate hike even before the Fed's last meeting. 25
That said, note the tendency to try to goad the Fed right back into seeking “soft” credibility. From the March press conference:
On Oct. 16, Dudley got an earful from Wall Street bankers and economists on a New York Fed advisory panel criticizing the Fed for its muddled In determining whether it will be appropriate to message, according to three people who attended the raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee meeting. will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 The interviews with Fed officials and those percent inflation. close to the central bank suggest that it was around this time that the plan to hint at December in the next According to some excellent reporting by Jonpolicy statement started taking shape. athan Spicer, Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider at Reuters: That sounds as if Dudley was falling prey to the fetish of “soft” credibility. We need to pick a When the U.S. Federal Reserve tweaked its message and stick with it. That's what the guys on Wall policy statement last week and put a December rate rise Street say. They say we are going to loose our credibilisquarely back in play, it took a calculated gamble that ty. We need to get ahead of that. reaching for an old and controversial policy tool would get financial markets' attention. And perhaps this is why the Fed’s decision in December always felt forced. Me, in December: That gamble was to specifically reference the next policy meeting as a date of a possible lift-off, and it Given that the Fed likely only gets one chance had the desired effect: investors quickly rolled back bets to lift-off from the zero bound on a sustained basis, it that rates would stay near zero until next year. is reasonable to think they would wait until they were absolutely sure inflation was coming. Even more so But interviews with current and former Fed offi- given the poor performance of their inflation forecials, and with those close to policymakers, show the de- casts. But the Fed thinks there is now more danger in cision to use what is called calendar guidance in central waiting than moving. And so into the darkness we go. bank parlance and what some described as a "hammer" did not come easy. Some officials felt that even men I don’t think the Fed would ever admit Decemtioning a date in the context of a potential policy change ber was a mistake, but at a minimum the decision to would be taken not as a contingent expectation but as hold pat in March and dramatically mark down their a promise that would be painful to break Yet Fed Chair rate expectations for further rate hikes in 2016 tells me Janet Yellen and her deputies got so frustrated that the Fed thought they were certainly on the verge of investors virtually ignored their message that a rate rise making a major policy error and pulled back quickly. before the year end was probable that they decided last In my framework, the Fed shifted back to seeking to month it was a risk worth taking, the interviews show. preserve “hard” credibility.
Steve Liesman, CNBC. Madam Chair, as you know, inflation has gone up the last two months. We had another strong jobs report, the tracking forecasts
for GDP have returned to 2 percent, and yet the Fed stands pat while it’s in a process of what it said it launched in December was a “process of normalization.” So I have two questions about this: Does the Fed have a credibility problem, in the sense that it says it will do some—one thing under certain conditions but doesn’t end up doing it? And then, frankly, if the current conditions are not sufficient for the Fed to raise rates, well, what would those conditions ever look like? I hope Fed policymakers remain resistant to such taunts. The Fed is especially vulnerable to the problem of “soft” credibility when they lay down specific markers. The infamous dot-plot is one such marker. Policymakers have difficulty explaining the dot-plot is not a promise of future action; it is nothing more than a guideline. But the instant they establish that guideline, the mere fact that it induces some market participants to believe a promise has been made creates the belief that not meeting that promise will cost the Fed credibility. “Soft” credibility. The Fed needs to distinguish between this and “hard” credibility. Another such marker is the 2 percent inflation target. Although Fed officials have repeatedly warned that they assume there will be symmetric errors around the target, we don’t know that until we actually have above-target inflation.
The rule was created in an era of below-target inflation, so it is easy to say the Fed lacks credibility on the inflation target. I have said so. But I have come to perceive this as another instance of “soft” credibility. I worry that if the Fed becomes concerned about their supposed credibility from inflation at 50bp below target, they will overreact to inflation that is 50bp above target. What we really want is the Fed to maintain inflation within 50bp of target without triggering a recession. That would be the “hard” credibility of meeting the Fed’s mandate over the long run. Bottom Line: The Fed should be playing the long game. In my opinion, that means pursuing the “hard” credibility of choosing the path most likely to meet their mandate over the long run. This may require sacrificing some “soft” credibility along the way. That means not hiking rates – or hiking rates – despite a perceived promise to do the opposite. The Fed should not fret over those costs. They are minor and quickly forgotten. And worse yet, being a slave to the fetish of “soft” credibility only raises the odds of a policy error. They will do less harm by breaking their “promise” than by keeping that promise via a poor decision.
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Photo by David Gibb | www.dgibbphoto.com
The Best of All Worlds
Chris Holzshu, Chief Financial Officer, with Bryan DeBoer, President and CEO of Lithia
MEDFORD, OR - With 100 dealerships in 12 states, Lithia Auto Stores could have located its new headquarters anywhere, but they chose to build a LEED silver certified facility in Medford, Oregon.
Lithia Auto Stores 150 N. Bartlett Medford, OR 97501 www.lithia.com (541) 776-6401
“The Rogue Valley provides us with an edge in “We made a conscious decision to locate our new headquarters here,” said Tom Dobry, recruiting. We have vice president of marketing. “Here we have the best of all worlds—an affordable, world-class companies outstanding quality of life and a location on the I-5 corridor between two of the and world-class recreational most dynamic cities in the country. We have top-flight talent all around us opportunities here.” and we’re not giving anything up by locating in Medford. We can be just as competitive here as anywhere and we don’t lose time to a long commute.”
- Chris Holzshu, Chief Financial Officer
by Chris Cook
www.SouthernOregonEdge.com by Southern Oregon Regional Economic Development Inc. (541) 773-8946
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