July, 2019 by Southern Oregon Business Journal

Proudly Serving Benton, Coos, Curry, Deschutes, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Lane, Lincoln & Linn Counties Since 2015

July 2019

Smoke Season

Hemp

What’s being done & what your business can do to survive it

Learn about OSU’s Global Hemp Innovation Center

Rebooting

County Fairs!

We are rebooting our company, magazine & website. Find out how inside.

The Journal for 45,000+ Small Business Owners in Southern Oregon

Get highlights from Southern Oregon Fairs and plan out your summer.

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 1

SouthernOregonBusinessJournal.com

A Few Words from Greg There is nothing as constant as change. The challenge is anticipating the when, how, and where, of the inevitable change. Knowing the answers to these make preparation easier. Perspective enters into the fray of disagreements, and always has. When there is a shared perspective on change, life is good, no disagreement, no compromise needed, no problem. In the beginning, as founder and president of the Southern Oregon Business Journal, every decision went through me, for better or worse. The only contrary opinions I dealt with were my own, when I had trouble deciding which way to go, whether something was black or white, or someplace in between in that sea we refer to as gray area. Welcome Jim Teece. Jim and I have decided to partner up on the Southern Oregon Business Journal. Not only will this add Jim’s creativity and drive behind us but we will also work with his company, ‘Project A’ from Ashland in southern Oregon. He is an accomplished businessman with many years in a world of advanced technology and media. An in-demand conference speaker, Jim is known for his successes in high speed internet systems, project development and a genuine approach to leadership appreciated by those working with him or for him. The look of the business journal will undergo positive changes in the next few weeks to enable additional advantages to our subscribers, writers and advertisers. It’s the way businesses grow and preserve their sustainability. Both of us are looking forward to this mutual opportunity. Since we live in a very high-speed digital world the Southern Oregon Business Journal will be noticeably upgraded. The advantages we can offer our subscribers are exciting. Press releases will come your way in a timely manner from a number of the sixteen business sectors with whom we communicate. You will have reliable information intended to assist in your regular updating of important events in your industry. Of course, subscribing to the monthly print edition is still encouraged. The Southern Oregon Business Journal has been called “the best business journal in the state of Oregon” and intends to be better with every issue. It is the best business publication you can place on your desk, in your briefcase, or on your coffee table. Please let Jim or me know how we can better meet your needs. Thank you for contributing to the success of business in southern Oregon. Greg

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The Southern Oregon Business Journal extends sincere thanks to the following companies for their continued presence as important cogs in the wheels of industry in southern Oregon.

A JOURNAL FOR THE ECONOMICALLY CURIOUS, PROFESSIONALLY INSPIRED AND ACUTELY MOTIVATED

Table of Contents Inside This Issue

FEATURED

4. Future Proofing Oregon - Smoke Season

6. OSU launches Global Hemp Innovation Center

5. A Proposal In Paradise

9. Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

9. Transportation

16. Four Flexible Work Arrangements to Consider

13. South Central Employment

26. Technology Association of Oregon - Eugene

18. South Coast Employment

30. Flying Lessons : The Learning Curve - Part 4 of 6

20. Corvallis MSA Employment

34. A Must-See Tour of Oregon’s Southeastern Corner

22. Southwest Oregon Economic Indicators 24. Oregon Employment 28. Oregon International Port of Coos Bay 32. Energy Trust of Oregon 34. Support your county fair, it’s good business

TheVillage

Cover Photo

ARTISAN MARKET

Image by skeeze from Pixabay

MEDFORD CENTER

A CELEBRATION OF LOCAL ARTISTS, GROWERS AND CRAFTERS

MAY 23

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JUNE 20

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JULY 18

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AUG. 15

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703 Divot Loop Sutherlin, Oregon 97479 www.southernoregonbusiness.com 541-315-6127

SEPT. 19 | 4PM-8PM

Local food, local farms, entertainment, fresh produce, art, music and much more!

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 3

FUTURE PROOFING SOUTHERN OREGON

Benton, Coos, Curry, Deschutes, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Lane, Linn, Lincoln

JIM TEECE

For 6 weeks last year, smoke filled most of southern Oregon’s air and for many days we had the worst air quality in the nation. We were told to stay indoors and we downloaded AQI (Air Quality Index) apps that sent us daily alerts and we watched wind shifts on websites (check out windy.com for a cool way to see live wind patterns and forecasts) while we sat indoors waiting for the “New Normal” to end. Many people left town for vacation or threatened to leave the area for good. The tourists we count on year after year, didn’t show up. This new “Smoke Season” is emotionally dreadful and economically and physically harmful. The Oregon Shakespeare festival had to cancel 21 outdoor shows, so people didn’t come, which means restaurants were down (a couple in Ashland have shuttered since) and hotels were down. Even the Ashland Food Coop, was down 14% during the smoke season. It’s beyond the scope of this publication to talk about the health issues and challenges we face because of smoke, but we should discuss the economic impact. Last summer, The Carr Fire, near Yreka, burned in California and grew 10 miles per day toward the Oregon Border. In a few days it grew into Oregon and both homes and businesses were put on notice to evacuate. I know because both my 4 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

Smoke Season is the new normal and until we find a way to mitigate it, it’s imperative that we prepare our homes, businesses and communities to survive.

home (My wife and I have a 30 acre ranch with lots of animals) and office, which is a mile from our home, were put in the “get set” to evacuate mode. There are three modes of evacuation orders. Get Ready means just that. Be aware and be prepared. Create a defensible space around your home and office and harden them. Get Set means, a fire is on its way. Prepare to evacuate. Communicate your plans. Think through the evacuation so that if it happens, you are prepared. Pre-Pack. Go means Go. Pack up the kids, pets and your ID, Meds and important papers into your car and GO! Because of the animals needing to re-home quickly and the fire being 10 miles away and growing 10 miles a day, we started evacuating right away. Luckily for us, the next day, the wind shifted and the order was lifted, but for 24 hours we were busy moving animals off the farm and asking employees to figure out ways to do the work they do in the office, from home, if their home was safe. We also had equipment and files (both physical and electronic) that we had to figure out how to safely move away from danger. When it was over I realized that in my 30 years in business, and 28 years in Southern Oregon, this was the first time we faced an impending disaster and we were not really prepared.

Employees worry about their homes and you're asking them to worry about work. We were very nervous. Fear is a powerful emotion. This is the 3rd year in the row that Southern Oregon has been affected greatly, by the smoke. Many of us focus on the why. Who is to blame? Why is this happening? At coffee houses and board meetings, I heard countless “experts” explain how it’s because of bad forest management. I have seen photos of the region from 100 years ago and there were burned out forests, because fires are natural and the smoke that filled the air was there, but we didn’t live in the valleys were the smoke settled, yet. Maybe we slowed them down or put them out when we learned how to farm our forests, because it’s in our best interest that we protect our crops. Maybe we are all affected more now because we moved closer to or in some cases directly into the forests. Maybe we need to think about forests and forest fires as a health issue and not a territorial issue. I know when the fire marched toward us and moved from the state forests and entered into federal forests, the process of fighting the fire changed to not fighting and the people in charge of putting out the fire changed. I know that Jackson County commissioners and legislators are working hard to find solutions or to at least attack fires sooner and harder before they turn into a long term issue. The problems are many. Fires in Canada and California affected

A Proposal in Paradise us. We don’t control those. We can’t fight those. But our air is effected. Smoke Season Impacts All of Us. After I attended several meetings and felt like there was enough momentum to keep the political conversation about fire and smoke going, I returned my attention to the things I could control. I created a better evacuation plan for my employees and animals. I moved more of my business to the “cloud” and I made clear communication processes and policies for customers to know what was going on when something like that happened again. I also started asking other businesses what they plan on doing to get though this “new normal” and several have come up with creative ideas. A large number are going to give away free masks for customers and employees. They are upgrading filters and changing them more often to create a clean air space. One is looking into offering home delivery of meals and groceries. At the Jackson County Expo, they opened their arena (closed it actually, but opened it for use) to football teams and other sport teams from area high schools to practice in. The Ashland Chamber of Commerce held a state wide smoke summit and created a site called SmokeWiseAshland.org (which has fantastic information for all, regardless of where you live). After the smoke cleared we got busy and moved on and then the devastating Paradise fire reminded us that where there is smoke, there is fire and we need to all be ready to survive the next season. We had a good winter and hopefully we will have a long wet spring and we can keep those fires this summer to a minimum. What are you doing to prepare your business to make it through this years smoke season? Please let us know at SouthernOregonBusinessJournal.com. Jim Teece owns the award winning, Ashland based, Web Agency, Project A and is thankful for all firefighters.

Paradise burned in November, last year. Luke and Cassie lost their home and everything in it. So did all of their neighbors. Eighty six lost their lives. It was historic in a way no one wants to be a part of history. Healing had to begin before the fire was even out. And so it did. In the ash and soot and rubble of what had been their home Lukas Schnoor got down on a knee and asked Cassie to marry him. In April they shared their vows and made plans to start anew. With a small grin on his face when asked of the experience, Luke said that one thing about losing everything is that there’s not much to pack. His personal values statement, “Its only stuff”, tells you all you need to know about how well he understands the difference between really important things, and those things that can be replaced. After high school Lukas Schnoor left the family farm in Chowchilla, California to work for Tractor Supply Company. He became a manager when he was 22 and worked for a time in Chico and Carson City. With experience under his belt and leadership ability an obvious asset, the 28 year old Tractor Supply Company manager accepted the manager’s position of the newly opened store in Sutherlin.

Tractor Supply Company has arrived in Sutherlin and so has Mr. and Mrs. Lukas Schnoor. The new community will soon learn what a fortunate thing it is. The FFA and the 4H groups have been invited to the Grand Opening on July 20th. You can’t get more appropriate than that. To read the Mission & Values statements of Tractor Supply Company is to read the words you wouldn’t mind seeing in every business’ explanation of who they are. They mention honesty, integrity and mutual respect in their mission. Subheadings of the values are Ethics, Respect, Balance, Winning Attitude, Communication, and Development. Sounds like a place we would all like to work. The newly opened store in Sutherlin lies halfway between the stores in Grants Pass and Creswell. A strategic location with the small-town lifestyle of people who have traded with the company since its beginning 80 years ago in Tennessee. Today, Tractor Supply Company is located in 49 states at 1,775 locations. A publicly traded company ((NASDAQ: TSCO) Tractor Supply has been recognized as #76 on Barron’s top 100 most sustainable companies. The company states in its self-introduction it is the largest rural, lifestyles retailer in the United States. The 29,000 team members of the company have added to that number with thirteen employees in the Sutherlin location, five full time and eight part time. Lukas mentioned the goals of the team members joining him in Sutherlin, among them “Tractor Supply is going to be the Go-To Place” in the region. He promises they will be providing “legendary customer service”. A small banner displayed in the employee breakroom instructs, “Do whatever it takes”. On the west side of interstate five at Exit 36 is Tractor Supply Company. You can see it in the large building once occupied by Rays supermarket. You owe it to yourself to stop by and check it out.

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 5

AGRICULTURE

Benton, Linn, Jackson

HEIDI HAPPONEN

The Global Hemp Innovation Center will be based in OSU’s College of Agricultural Sciences with research taking place across the state and world.

Oregon State University launches largest, most comprehensive hemp research center in the nation

STORY BY: Heidi Happonen, 541-737-9180, heidi.happonen@oregonstate.edu SOURCE: Alan Sams, 541-737- 2331, alan.sams@oregonstate.edu; Jay Noller, 541-737- 2821, jay.noller@oregonstate.edu

CORVALLIS, Ore. – Oregon State University officials announced plans today (Thursday, June 13) to launch the nation’s largest research center devoted to the study of hemp, and announced that OSU will begin certifying hemp seed for planting in Oregon. The Global Hemp Innovation Center will be based in OSU’s College of Agricultural Sciences with research taking place across the state and world. Currently, there are more than 40 OSU faculty representing 19 academic disciplines engaged in hemp research, teaching and extension services. The center will serve as a research hub connecting faculty and researchers engaged in plant research, food innovation, pharmacy, public health, public policy, business and engineering. Hemp has the potential to become a major agricultural commodity in the United States and abroad with hemp plant fiber being used in manufactured products, including clothing, construction materials and packaging. Meanwhile, hemp seed oil is being investigated for use in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, foods and nutraceuticals. For example, hemp has a long tradition of use in treating ailments by eastern medicine.

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Alan Sams, dean of the College of Agricultural Sciences, said the OSU center will be the world’s most comprehensive resource for the study of hemp. “Our faculty are already recognized internationally as the go-to experts for hemp research,” Sams said. “The launch of this center signifies our commitment to continue to build upon that established expertise and grow our impact across the state, the nation and globally.” Oregon State’s decision to launch the new hemp center follows Congress’ adoption of the 2018 Farm Bill that removed hemp from the list of controlled drug substances and initiated the creation of a framework for hemp to become a fully legalized commodity in the future. “Hemp has incredible potential across several industries and sectors, including in food and health products and as a fiber commodity in many products,” Sams said. “We believe that Oregon State University is uniquely positioned to serve the global need for research-based understanding of hemp as a crop and for its use in new products.”

The Global Hemp Innovation Center (con’t) According to the Brightfield Group, an analytics firm that tracks the cannabis industry, the hempderived cannabidiol (CBD) market is expected to grow from $618 million in 2018 to $22 billion by 2022. OSU already is a go-to partner with Oregon agriculture. The university collaborates with the Oregon Department of Agriculture and various state commodity commissions to certify seeds for as many as 48 agricultural commodities grown in Oregon. As it launches its seed certification services for hemp, the seeds will be for use by farmers that are registered by the state. Oregon State will be the only university in the nation presently to certify hemp seed. At this time, only state departments of agriculture in Colorado, North Dakota and Tennessee certify hemp seed for use in those states. By the end of June, OSU researchers will plant the university’s third crop of hemp plants at 10 university experiment stations located in different climates and soil conditions throughout Oregon. Up to eight plots of hemp totaling no more than five acres will be planted at each experiment station. Hemp material will be harvested as the plants are flowering and will be provided to OSU researchers for study. No pollen or seeds will be produced from this year’s research crop. Jay Noller, professor of crop and soil science at OSU, will serve as director and lead researcher for the new center. “We want to understand how to efficiently and sustainably grow hemp for seeds, for hemp fiber materials that can be used in textiles and construction materials, including as an alternate to gravel in concrete, for hemp essential oils that have popular health and wellness uses, and for hemp grain for use in foods and feed. Multi-use hemp is what we are excited about globally.” Noller said OSU’s hemp research center will have a global impact. “It’s tempting to think of growing hemp to both build your house and treat disease,” Noller added. “I also like to remind people that hemp food is highly nutritious.” Noller said Oregon State researchers are working with faculty at universities in Europe

and China to explore the propagation and uses of hemp. Meanwhile, Oregon State will host in Corvallis a National Academies of Sciences symposium on hemp in the coming months. OSU is well-situated to provide research, teaching, and outreach and engagement associated with hemp, Noller said. “We have incredible alignment between our research community, the university’s experiment stations and the OSU Extension Service to engage in strong basic research, applied research and scholarly teaching. “We have very few agencies nationally involved in understanding the agricultural, economic assessment and public health benefits of hemp. Oregon’s location on the 45th parallel is optimal for hemp growth and a unique hemp germplasm – the genetic material used for breeding – was developed in the state over the

United States in licensed hemp acres planted behind Montana and Colorado. The 2018 farm bill decriminalized propagation of hemp, and it is anticipated that over the next year the federal government will have a framework in place to commercially produce and utilize hemp grown in the U.S. As of mid-May, Oregon has licensed 1,342 growers to plant 46,219 acres of hemp this year, according to the Oregon Department of Agriculture. That total is nearly six times greater than the 7,808 acres planted in 2018. Nationally, the number of licensed acres devoted to hemp cultivation increased by 204% from 2017 to 2018, according to Vote Hemp, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit organization. Both Oregon and OSU have a long history of hemp cultivation and research. The university, then known as Oregon Agricultural College,

past several decades.” Noller said the engagement of 40 OSU faculty, 19 academic disciplines,10 university experiment stations and the OSU Extension Service will combine to make Oregon State’s hemp research effort the nation’s largest. Beginning in 1936, the federal government prohibited the propagation of hemp plants. Oregon authorized hemp cultivation in 2009, but the Oregon of Department of Agriculture did not license its first hemp grower until 2015. Just three years later, Oregon ranked third in the

partnered with scientists in the U.S. Department of Agriculture to host a national hemp research center from the 1880s until 1932. About the OSU College of Agricultural Sciences: Through its world-class research on agriculture and food systems, natural resource management, rural economic development and human health, the College provides solutions to Oregon’s most pressing challenges and contributes to a sustainable environment and a prosperous future for Oregonians.

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 7

TRANSPORTATION

Jackson, Klamath

MARY BUELL

Aviation Board awards $1.5 M to support $3.2 M in commercial air service projects ROAR is one of three grant programs in the Oregon Department of Aviation’s Aviation System Action Program (ASAP). ASAP was a result of the Oregon State Legislature passing House Bill 2075 to increase the fuel tax on Aviation Gas and Jet Fuel by two cents per gallon in 2015. The fuel tax increase became effective January 1, 2016 and currently has a sunset date of January 1, 2022.

Grant recipients and their funded projects are:

By Mary Buell Published April 5, 2019 Grants of up to $500,000 were approved by the Oregon State Aviation Board for projects that will assist commercial air service to rural Oregon.

On April 4, 2019, the Oregon State Aviation Board approved funding for three grants totaling $1.5 million to support $3.2 million in projects that will assist new or additional commercial air service to Klamath Falls, Medford, and Salem. It was the highest amount to be awarded from the Rural Oregon Aviation Relief (ROAR) program to date. Individual grants were capped at $500,000.

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• Crater Lake-Klamath Falls Regional Airport, Minimum Revenue Guarantee to restore commercial passenger service • Rogue Valley International-Medford Airport, Minimum Revenue Guarantee to attract additional air service • Salem Area Chamber of Commerce, Commercial airline service recruitment and Minimum Revenue Guarantee For more information about ROAR Grants or to learn how to apply, please visit www.oregon.gov/aviation.

Tim Duy’s

Fed Watch Data Beginning to Clear the Way for a Rate Cut Central Takeaway If You Don’t Have Any Time This Morning

JUNE 10, 2019

US Nonfarm Payrolls Monthly Change, Thousands

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The Fed hastily delivered a soothing message last week by promising to act appropriately to maintain the expansion. It was hard not to read that as dovish. That combined with the employment data puts a rate cut in play this summer. Things That You Should Already Know About The Trump administration announced that Mexico had agreed to help stem the flow of immigrants into the U.S. In return, the threat of tariffs has been lifted indefinitely. That said, I doubt the coast is clear entirely. I suspect that if Trump perceives this as a win, he will use this tool again. Data

2019:05 values: 1 month change = 75.0 3 month moving average = 150.7 12 month moving average = 195.8

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web: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/ * twitter: @timduy * data via fred * chart created: 06/07/2019 14:00

Unemployment Rate Percentage of Labor Force 10 9 8 7

2019:05 values: Unemployment rate = 3.6 Fed Longer Run Projection = 4.30

6 5 4

Last Friday the BLS delivered a disap3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 pointing Employment Report for May. The Unemployment Rate Federal Reserve, Longer-Run Projection, Midpoint of Central Tendency earlier-released ADP report guided in the web: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/ * twitter: @timduy * data via fred * chart created: 06/07/2019 14:00 right direction as the BLS estimated nonfarm payroll growth at 75k compared to expectations for 180k. As if not more importantly, previous months necessary to keep the unemployment rate steady once demographic effects take hold. The magic number is were revised downward, dragging down the three-month roughly 100k, so 150k might still be sufficient to put downaverage to 151k. ward pressure in unemployment. That will be something With these revisions it becomes more apparent that job the Fed will puzzle over. growth has slowed markedly in the last four months. It would seem that the economy’s fiscal stimulus sugar high has worn off. But what is left behind? Sustained growth at this pace remains above the Fed’s estimates of that

In a disappointing development, wage growth has decelerated. That said, this may not be something that should come as a complete surprise given that inflation

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 9

Tim Duy’s FED WATCH

has decelerated as well. Real wages continue to grow at a clip comparable with the immediate pre-recession period. Temporary help employment continues to grind a bit higher, but the pace is anemic. Still, temp workers are not being let go at a pace normally associated with recessions.

JUNE 10, 2019

All Employees Average Wages Annualized Wage Growth 7.5

4.5

2019:05 values: 1 month change = 2.62 3 month change = 2.48 12 month change = 3.11

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Fedspeak

“There are more uncertainties today,” he said while answering questions following remarks Thursday at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, but “my base case is an economy that continues to grow above trend, an economy that still has a very low unemployment rate and inflation moving back to 2%.” We don’t know if the jobs report changed his view, but my guess is that Williams would see 150k job growth as generally consistent with this outlook. Meanwhile Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan was equally circumspect about the outlook. Regarding the risk posed by trade wars:

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Unemployment and Real Wages U-3 Unemployment, All Employee Average Wages Deﬂated by Core-PCE

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web: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/ * twitter: @timduy * data via fred * chart created: 06/07/2019 09:28

Temporary Help Services Payrolls

“Some of these decisions can change. We may see a new announcement and new decisions in the next four or five weeks. I am concerned...But it is too soon to make a judgment about whether there is any action that would be appropriate.”

Upcoming Data

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This is important; the Fed would not want to base a rate cut decision on the trade wars if peace comes in just a few weeks if those trade wars never happen.

2011

web: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/ * twitter: @timduy * data via fred * chart created: 06/07/2019 09:22

Real Wages, % Change Y-o-Y

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, speaking before the jobs report, did not appear eager to cut rates. Via the Wall Street Journal:

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web: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/ * twitter: @timduy * data via fred * chart created: 06/07/2019 09:22

A fairly busy week ahead of us. A wide swath of price data arrives this week, with the Producer Price Index on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, and import prices on Thursday. Obviously, we will be looking for more signs to confirm or deny the Fed’s contention that the weak inflation in recent months was just transitory. Thursday we also get the usual weekly initial unemployment claims report. Friday is a big day. First, we get some insight into the consumer with the Retail Sales report; © 2017 University of Oregon; Tim Duy. All rights reserved. 10 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

expectations are high, with Wall Street looking for headline sales to rebound 0.7% while ex-autos are up 0.4%. Following up the sales data is the Industrial Production report which is expected to be up 0.2% after a decline in April. Both reports will be watched for auto industry insight, but the basic soft trend in that sector probably won’t improve anytime soon as autos are on the downhill side of the post-recession recovery. Still, the day isn’t over then. It ends only after we see May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and April Business Inventories. 2

Tim Duy’s FED WATCH

Blackout period for the Fed, so no Fedspeak expected. If the Fed wants to say something, it will be on deep background. Discussion

JUNE 10, 2019

US Nonfarm Payrolls 500

Monthly Change, Thousands, Lines Indicate Timing of Rate Cuts

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200 My basic view since the beginning of the year has been that a rate cut is more likely 100 than a rate hike. The exact timing of that move became clearer last week when Powell 0 inserted into a non-related speech that the Fed was ready to act as appropriate to sus-100 1993 1994 1995 1996 tain the recovery. The proximate cause for Monthly Change 3-Month Moving Average 12-Month Moving Average those remarks were the threat of potenweb: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/ * twitter: @timduy * data via fred * chart created: 06/08/2019 07:38 tial economic disruption from Trump’s tariff threat to Mexico. For me, that brought September into play on the basis that the Fed would 3. Worries about financial stability persist. The Fed require a few more months of softer data to justify a remains wary that persistent low interest rates will rate cut. If data worsened more quickly than expected, set in motion the next financial crisis. Some will pull the hike forward, if not push it backward. see the past week’s equity rally as validation of those concerns. Events since Powell’s comments have evolved quick-

ly. On the positive side, negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico over immigration issues yielded enough fruit that the threat of tariffs are off the table (as noted above, however, this probably won’t be the last we see of Trump and tariffs). On the negative side, the jobs report revealed a marked slowdown in job growth since the beginning of the year. Do the two events cancel each other out? No. It is tempting to conclude that with downside risks reduced, the Powell will regret sending a dovish signal this week. I think, however, that even if this most recent tariff dispute has not occurred, the shift in the employment data would have been sufficient to put a rate cut into play. A clear slowing in economic activity by itself raises the downside risks because you don’t know when that slowing will end. Given the economy’s proximity to the lower bound, the Fed’s most likely move is to prepare for a rate cut.

The jobs report provides cover for the Fed to use the June FOMC meeting to signal a rate cut at the end of July. Why not cut in June? A number of reasons: 1. This dovish shift probably as if yet doesn’t have wide internal support. See Williams’ comments above. It will take a meeting to build that support. 2. I suspect the median FOMC participant would like to see a little more data that confirms the slowing trend in the labor market. Perhaps the June employment report reveals strong upward revisions that make them rethink the degree of slowing. © 2017 University of Oregon; Tim Duy. All rights reserved.

4. Recent inflation readings support the Fed’s contention that recent inflation weakness was in fact transitory. In the Fed’s world, unemployment remains below the natural rate, which in turn places upward pressure on inflation when inflation is already near trend. They do not have a policy of deliberately overshooting their 2 percent target. They do not know yet that the slowdown is yet sufficient to reduce the upward pressure on inflation let alone put downward pressure on inflation. The current setup feels a lot like 1995. Then, like now, the Fed spent the first part of the year struggling with the magnitude of the economic slowdown underway. By the time of the July 1995 meeting, however, the Fed had enough evidence in hand to justify a rate cut, the first of three 25 basis point cuts. Interestingly, the employment picture shifted in the first half of 1995 as it has so far in the first half of 2019. If the Fed can engineer a repeat, 1995 would be a good model to follow as it is arguably the only instance of a soft landing for monetary policy. To be sure, I can’t rule out a June rate cut. As I often say, when the Fed shifts gears, it shifts quickly. Still, the reasons outlined above suggest to me the path forward is to use June to signal a high probability that the next move is a cut and to deliver that cut in July (assuming of course the data continues to support that move). Bottom Line: The Fed set a low bar for a rate cut. The data is beginning to clear the way for that cut.

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 11

Tim Duy’s FED WATCH

JUNE 10, 2019

Inﬂation Measures % Change Y-o-Y 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Core-PCE

Trimmed Mean PCE

Federal Reserve Target

web: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/ * twitter: @timduy * data via fred * chart created: 06/08/2019 06:27

TIMOTHY A. DUY PROFESSOR OF PRACTICE OREGON ECONOMIC FORUM, SENIOR DIRECTOR DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF OREGON Professor Duy received his B.A. in Economics in 1991 from the University of Puget Sound, and his M.S. and Ph.D. in Economics in 1998 from the University of Oregon. Following graduate school, Tim worked in Washington, D.C. for the United States Department of Treasury as an economist in the International Affairs division and later with the G7 Group, a political and economic consultancy for clients in the financial industry. In the latter position, he was responsible for monitoring the activities of the Federal Reserve and currency markets. Tim returned to the University of Oregon in 2002. He is the Senior Director of the Oregon Economic Forum and the author of the University of Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators, Regional Economic Indicators, and the Central Oregon Business Index.

oregon

economic forum

Tim has published in the Journal of Economics and Business and is currently a member of the Oregon Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors and the State Debt Policy Advisory Commission. Tim is a prominent commentator on the Federal Reserve. MarketWatch describes his blog as “influential.” The Huffington Post identified him has one of the top 26 economists to follow on Twitter, and he is listed on StreetEye as one of the top 100 people to follow to discover finance news on Twitter. Major national and international news outlets frequently quote him, including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg. He also writes a regular column for Bloomberg Prophets. Notice: This newsletter is commentary, not investment advice.

duy@uoregon.edu 541-346-4660

ECON Economics

@TimDuy

SOUTH CENTRAL ployment are quite low Klamath,for Lake the region. EMPLOYMENT

DAMON RUNBERG, REGIONAL ECONOMIST

The unemployment remainsfrom little changed adjusted unemployment rate was 6.7 percent in May,rate down 6.9 over the past year for both Klamath and Lake counties percent last May.

Oregon and South Central Oregon Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted, May 2014 - May 2019 16%

12%

Oregon

Klamath

Lake

0% May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19

Seasonal hiring this spring was stronger than typically expected as businesses ramp up for the busy summer season. The unemployment rate remains little changed over the past year for both Klamath and Lake counties; however, levels of unemployment are quite low for the region.

Klamath County added 460 jobs in May, strong hiring for this time of year.

Lake County: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 6.3 percent in May from 6.5 percent in April. The rate is up from this time last year when it was 5.4 percent.

sted unemployment rate dropped to 6.3 percent in May from 6.5 percent Total nonfarm employment is essentially from this time last year, up 0.5 me last year when it was 5.4 unchanged percent. percent (+120 jobs). Over the past year Klamath County posted notable job gains in retail trade, health services, and local government education. However, many of these gains were negated by losses in professional and business services and manufacturing.

Lake County added 70 jobs in May, which is consistent with normal seasonal hiring. Total nonfarm employment is up 70 jobs from last year (+3.1%). Job growth over the past year was concentrated in local government, health services, and retail trade. The only notable job losses were in leisure and hospitality (-30 jobs).

which is consistent with normal seasonal hiring. Total nonfarm t year (+3.1%). Job growth over the past year was concentrated in local Klamath County: The seasonally etail trade. The only notable job losses were in leisure and hospitality adjusted unemployment rate was 6.7 percent in May, down from 6.9 percent in April. The rate was 6.1 percent last May.

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 13

Employment Department News Release

Page 3 of 5

June 25, 2019 Workforce & Economic Research Division QualityInfo.org June 25, 2019

Klamath County Current Labor Force and Industry Employment --Change From-May 2019

April 2019

May 2018

April 2019

May 2018

29,237 1,448 5.0% 6.7% 27,789

29,175 1,864 6.4% 6.9% 27,311

29,384 1,533 5.2% 6.1% 27,851

62 -416 -1.4 -0.2 478

-147 -85 -0.2 0.6 -62

Total nonfarm employment Total nonfarm employment (seasonally adjusted)

23,380 23,120

22,920 23,050

23,260 22,990

460 70

120 130

Total private Mining, logging, and construction Mining and logging Construction Manufacturing Durable goods Wood product manufacturing Nondurable goods Trade, transportation, and utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Food and beverage stores General merchandise stores Transportation, warehousing, and utilities Information Financial activities Professional and business services Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Other services Government Federal government State government Local government Local education

18,150 1,010 80 930 1,760 1,570 1,280 190 4,530 770 2,980 570 830 780 130 890 2,070 4,190 2,790 780 5,230 920 450 3,860 2,400

17,860 970 80 890 1,770 1,580 1,280 190 4,500 790 2,940 560 820 770 130 880 2,130 4,160 2,550 770 5,060 820 440 3,800 2,350

18,170 1,030 90 940 1,840 1,640 1,310 200 4,450 760 2,900 510 800 790 140 920 2,190 4,060 2,770 770 5,090 870 440 3,780 2,320

290 40 0 40 -10 -10 0 0 30 -20 40 10 10 10 0 10 -60 30 240 10 170 100 10 60 50

-20 -20 -10 -10 -80 -70 -30 -10 80 10 80 60 30 -10 -10 -30 -120 130 20 10 140 50 10 80 80

Labor Force Status Civilian labor force Unemployed Unemployment rate Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) Employed Nonfarm Payroll Employment

The most recent month is preliminary, the prior month is revised. Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Civilian labor force includes employed and unemployed individuals 16 years and older by place of residence. Employed includes payroll employment, self-employed, unpaid family workers, domestics, agriculture, and labor disputants. Unemployment rate is calculated by dividing unemployed by civilian labor force. Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Data are by place of work and cover full- and part-time employees who worked or received pay for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. The data exclude the self-employed, volunteers, unpaid family workers, and domestics.

14 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

Employment Department News Release

Page 4 of 5

June 25, 2019 Workforce & Economic Research Division QualityInfo.org June 25, 2019

Lake County Current Labor Force and Industry Employment --Change From-May 2019

April 2019

May 2018

April 2019

May 2018

3,494 166 4.8% 6.3% 3,328

3,464 229 6.6% 6.5% 3,235

3,460 164 4.7% 5.4% 3,296

30 -63 -1.8 -0.2 93

34 2 0.1 0.9 32

2,310 2,300

2,240 2,300

2,240 2,230

70 0

70 70

1,150 120 40 80 190 350 250 20 40 80 120 170 60 1,160 240 170 750

1,150 110 30 80 190 360 240 20 50 80 120 160 60 1,090 200 170 720

1,120 110 40 70 190 330 230 20 40 70 100 200 60 1,120 240 180 700

0 10 10 0 0 -10 10 0 -10 0 0 10 0 70 40 0 30

30 10 0 10 0 20 20 0 0 10 20 -30 0 40 0 -10 50

Labor Force Status Civilian labor force Unemployed Unemployment rate Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) Employed Nonfarm Payroll Employment Total nonfarm employment Total nonfarm employment (seasonally adjusted) Total private Mining, logging, and construction Mining and logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, transportation, and utilities Retail trade Information Financial activities Professional and business services Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Other services Government Federal government State government Local government

The Oregon Employment Department and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) work cooperatively to develop and publish monthly payroll employment and labor force data for Oregon’s metropolitan areas and counties. The estimates of monthly job gains and losses are based on a survey of businesses. The estimates of unemployment are based on a survey of households and other sources.

The Oregon Employment Department payroll employment estimates are revised quarterly using information from unemployment insurance tax records. All department publications use data from this oﬃcial Oregon series unless noted.

The department also makes the BLS-produced nonfarm payroll employment series for metropolitan areas available. These are revised annually by BLS.

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 15 SUPPORT BUSINESS • PROMOTE EMPLOYMENT

Retention and Engagement in the Modern Workplace:

4 Flexible Work Arrangements to Consider By Refresh Leadership on September 20, 2018 in Workplace

http://www.refreshleadership.com/index.php/2018/09/retention-engagement-modern-workplace-4-flexible-work-arrangements/

In the age of rapidly advancing technology and constantly evolving work-life balance priorities, workers expect more flexibility than ever before. And, given the current talent crunch many businesses are facing, companies that do not embrace at least some flexibility may end up a casualty of the talent war. In a recent poll on RefreshLeadership.com, the Express Employment Professionals blog for business leaders, readers were asked, “What does flexible work mean for you?” The top answer provided was “freedom to adjust schedules to accommodate personal/family needs.” Additionally, according to research by Zenefits, an HR software developer, 73% of employees surveyed said “flexible work arrangements increased their satisfaction at work.” And 78% said “flexible work arrangements made them more productive.” The research also revealed that 77% of employees “consider flexible work arrangements a major consideration when evaluating future job opportunities.” So, for many companies trying to attract and retain top talent, creating a more flexible work environment may be the key. Here are four of the more popular flexible work arrangements, along with a few pros and cons of each.

Telecommuting  One of the most common flexible work arrangements, telecommuting allows employees to work from home or other locations outside of the office via email, telephone, and/or internet. 16 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

Pros: Better work-life balance, employees are more focused and efficient without the distractions of a busy office. Avoiding long commutes. Employers may not need to maintain as much office space. Cons: Less interaction between coworkers, including fun or teambuilding opportunities. Employers have less oversight over how employees are managing their time and staying on task.

Compressed Week  In this arrangement, employees “compress” a full 40-hour work week into fewer than the standard five days. A common example would be working four 10 hour days Monday – Thursday with Fridays off. Pros: Extended hours during busiest workdays. Employees have more time away from work to pursue personal interests. Cons: Longer work days can be more grueling. Employees may find it difficult to arrange childcare during atypical hours. Vendors and other outside contacts likely still work a traditional work week.

Job Sharing

Flextime  In most cases, businesses require employees to be in the office during a “core” period (i.e 10:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.) However, during the hours outside that period employees choose their own schedule. Pros: Freedom to schedule work around life and family events. Employees have more freedom to work when they feel the most productive. Employers can better address peak or odd business hours. Cons: Similar to telecommuting, face-to-face time with coworkers is reduced. Complicated logistics of keeping track of everyone’s differing schedules. Opportunities for employees to abuse the privilege.

Job sharing involves two employees who work on a part-time or reduced hours basis to perform a job that is typically performed by one employee working full time. Pros: The two employees’ skills may complement each other, creating more wellrounded performance. Time off can be staggered so the position is always covered. Employees have better work-life balance. Cons: Inversely, the two employees may not be compatible and work slips through the cracks. Pay and benefit structures in such an arrangement can be more challenging for employers. In the end, the type of flexible work arrangement a company implements—if any at all—comes down to their individual business needs. What works for one workplace may not be suitable for another. However, no matter which arrangement you choose, communication with employees is vital in order to ensure everyone benefits.

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 17

SOUTH COAST EMPLOYMENT

Coos, Curry

GUY TAUER, REGIONAL ECONOMIST

Leisure and Hospitality Hiring Boosts Payroll Job Count

Coos County total payroll employment rose by 430 jobs over the month. Local government education saw the largest gain among published industries, up by 200 jobs. Two other industries saw typical seasonal increases in employment with leisure and hospitality adding 70 jobs and construction employment up by 40. Food manufacturing, retail trade, and professional and business services each gained 30 jobs in May.

Leisure and hospitality had an estimated over-the-year gain of 90 jobs. Over-theyear losses were reported in private education and health services (-170) and retail trade (- 90). Total government employment was essentially flat over the year with a gain of 20 jobs in state government offset by losses in federal government (-10) and Indian Tribal local government (-40). Local government education added 30 jobs since May 2018.

Coos County had an estimated loss of 70 jobs over the year ending in April. The professional and business services industry led the county with a gain of 150 jobs, a 7.2 percent annual growth rate.

Curry County total nonfarm payroll employment increased over the month by 160 jobs. Job gains were estimated in leisure and hospitality (+70); federal

18 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

government (+30); local government education (+30); and construction (+20). Curry County gained 170 jobs over the year ending in May, resulting in a 2.6 percent job gain. Private education and health services added 90 jobs over the year, and leisure and hospitality added 70 jobs. Retail trade and government added 30 and 20 jobs, respectively. Manufacturing and other services both lost 20 jobs since May 2018.

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 19

CORVALLIS MSA EMPLOYMENT

Benton

PATRICK O’CONNOR, REGIONAL ECONOMIST

Benton County’s Unemployment Rate at 3.2 Percent

Benton County’s unemployment rate was 3.2 percent in May, essentially unchanged from its revised rate of 3.3 percent in April. Oregon’s statewide unemployment rate in May was 4.2 percent, essentially unchanged from its revised April rate of 4.3 percent. Benton County’s employment gains in May were more than normal; total nonfarm employment increased 300 jobs, when an employment gain of 190 jobs would be expected. As a result, seasonally adjusted employment increased 110 between April and May. Benton County’s employment level was 5,030, or 12.9

percent, above its pre-recession employment peak in November 2007. Benton County’s employment has added 330 over the past year, a 0.7 percent increase. Benton County’s employment growth has been outpaced by the state and the nation. Oregon’s employment grew 2.5 percent and the U.S. grew 1.6 percent.

logging, and construction (+200 jobs, or 13.7%); education and health services (+260 jobs, or 3.6%); and leisure and hospitality (+110 jobs, or 2.6%).

Benton County’s private sector added 480 jobs over the past year, growing 1.7 percent. The public sector shed 150 jobs, down 0.9 percent. A fun-filled family event with over 30 craft booths. Totally run by volunteers.

The fastest-growing private-sector industries over the past year were mining,

Proceeds benefit the Storytelling Guild, a non-profit organization

storytellingguild.org

20 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

www.facebook.com/storytellingguild

Employment Department News Release

Page 2 of 3

June 25, 2019 Workforce & Economic Research Division QualityInfo.org June 25, 2019

Corvallis MSA (Benton County) Current Labor Force and Industry Employment --Change From-May 2019

April 2019

May 2018

April 2019

May 2018

48,892 1,238 2.5% 3.2% 47,654

48,801 1,409 2.9% 3.3% 47,392

48,878 1,270 2.6% 3.0% 47,608

91 -171 -0.4 -0.1 262

14 -32 -0.1 0.2 46

45,090 44,020

44,790 43,910

44,760 43,660

300 110

330 360

29,110 1,660 3,030 2,710 4,610 540 1,550 4,360 7,520 6,950 4,410 1,430 15,980 480 180 0 15,320 13,910

28,930 1,630 3,030 2,710 4,580 540 1,590 4,350 7,500 6,930 4,280 1,430 15,860 450 190 0 15,220 13,870

28,630 1,460 2,970 2,620 4,690 580 1,560 4,380 7,260 6,710 4,300 1,430 16,130 480 210 0 15,440 14,030

180 30 0 0 30 0 -40 10 20 20 130 0 120 30 -10 0 100 40

480 200 60 90 -80 -40 -10 -20 260 240 110 0 -150 0 -30 0 -120 -120

Labor Force Status Civilian labor force Unemployed Unemployment rate Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) Employed Nonfarm Payroll Employment Total nonfarm employment Total nonfarm employment (seasonally adjusted) Total private Mining, logging, and construction Manufacturing Durable goods Trade, transportation, and utilities Information Financial activities Professional and business services Education and health services Health care and social assistance Leisure and hospitality Other services Government Federal government State government State education Local government Local education

The most recent month is preliminary, the prior month is revised. Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Civilian labor force includes employed and unemployed individuals 16 years and older by place of residence. Employed includes payroll employment, self-employed, unpaid family workers, domestics, agriculture, and labor disputants. Unemployment rate is calculated by dividing unemployed by civilian labor force. Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Offical Oregon Series. Data are by place of work and cover full- and part-time employees who worked or received pay for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. The data exclude the self-employed, volunteers, unpaid family workers, and domestics.

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 21

Southwestern Oregon Economic Indicators June 2019 (May 2019 Data)

For data or publications on Southwestern Oregon, visit us at: QualityInfo.org

Local and State Unemployment Rates (Seasonally adjusted) Source: Oregon Employment Department, LAUS May 2017

May 2018

Industry Gains and Losses

(Over-the-year net change in employment) Source: Oregon Employment Department, CES

May 2019

6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.4% 5.2% 5.4%

Coos County Net Job Growth

5.3% 5.2% 5.4%

-70

4.1% 4.0% 4.2%

Total nonfarm employment Professional and business services

150

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Trade, transportation, and utilities

-130

Oregon

Coos County

Curry County

Douglas County

Education and health services (private)

-170

Graph of the Month

Curry County Net Job Growth

Southwest Minimum Wage Increases to $11.00 per hour on July 1, 2019

Source: Oregon Employment Department

170

Oregon's Minimum Wage Increases on July 1, 2019

Education and health services (private)

Leisure and hospitality

$12.50

Total nonfarm employment

Professional and business services

Trade, transportation, and utilities

$11.25 $11.00

Manufacturing

-20

Douglas County Net Job Growth $11.00

220

Total nonfarm employment

Manufacturing

Construction

$11.25

Oregon’s minimum wage increases on July 1 each year through 2022. There are three tiers of step increases based on geography. The next step will increase minimum wage in the Southwestern region and other nonurban counties to $11.00 per hour. In the third quarter of 2018, the share of jobs that paid the minimum wage in Southwestern Oregon ranged from a low of 7.5 percent in Douglas County to a high of 9.1 percent in Curry County. This compares to 7.3 percent of all jobs in Oregon that pay minimum wage. To learn more, read state economist Nick Beleiciks’ article or download the Oregon Employment Department’s detailed report.

Financial Activities

Leisure and hospitality

-120

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Sarah Cunningham | Workforce Analyst | E-mail: Sarah.E.Cunningham@Oregon.gov | Phone: (541) 530-0605 22 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 23

OREGON EMPLOYMENT

Benton, Coos, Curry, Deschutes, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Lane, Linn, Lincoln

NICK BELEICIKS

Oregon’s Minimum Wage Increases on July 1, 2019

County (279 jobs) to a high of 12.4 percent in Harney County (331 jobs). Multnomah County had 40,240 minimum wage jobs, which made up 7.1 percent of total jobs in the county.    With a larger concentration of jobs, metro areas also have more minimum wage jobs. Among the metro area counties, Deschutes County had the lowest percentage of jobs (5.7%) paying minimum wage among metro counties, followed by Marion County (5.8%) and Benton County (6.4%). Clackamas County had the highest share of jobs paying minimum wage among metro counties at 10.2 percent.

Oregon’s minimum wage increases on July 1, 2019, but the raises won’t be the same across the state. The minimum wage increases to $12.50 per hour inside the Portland urban growth boundary, $11.00 per hour in nonurban counties, and $11.25 in other areas of the state.

2022. There are three tiers of step increases based on geography.

Oregon’s three minimum wages will be in the top nine state-level minimum wages in the nation. The highest minimum wage will be in the District of Columbia ($14.00), followed by Massachusetts and Washington ($12.00); Colorado and New York ($11.10); and Arizona, California, and Maine ($11.00). The federal minimum wage will remain at $7.25 per hour.

Beginning in 2023, minimum wage in all tiers will be adjusted for inflation. This means the minimum wage will maintain purchasing power after the last step increase in 2022.  A Look Back at Minimum Wage Jobs in 2018

Between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019, Oregon’s minimum wages were $12.00 per hour within the Portland urban growth boundary, $10.75 standard, and $10.50 in nonurban counties. Roughly 7.3 percent of all jobs paid minimum wage or less in Oregon in the third quarter of 2018.

Oregon’s minimum wage levels were set by Senate Bill 1532 in 2016. The minimum wage increases on July 1 each year through

24 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

The share of jobs paying minimum wage ranged from a low of 3.5 percent in Morrow

Seventeen counties had a share of minimum wage jobs at or below the statewide share of 7.3 percent. The smallest shares were in Morrow County (3.5%), Hood River County (4.1%), Deschutes and Clatsop counties (5.7%), and Marion County (5.8%). Counties with a higher share of minimum wage jobs tended to be in rural areas. Eastern Oregon had a greater share of minimum wage jobs than other areas of the state. The highest shares of minimum wage jobs were found in Harney (12.4%), Malheur (12.1%), Wheeler (11.8%), and Sherman (10.0%).  Nick Beleiciks State Employment Economist nick.j.beleiciks@oregon.gov 875 Union St NE  Salem, OR 97311

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 25

TECHNOLOGY ASSOCIATION OF OREGON

Linn

MATT SAYRE

Eugene’s High Tech Sector is Booming

SentinelOne staff at their Downtown Eugene, Oregon office in the Citizens

If you haven’t been inside a commercial building in downtown Eugene, Oregon, in recent years, you may have missed a significant shift in the composition of the tenants. Dozens of new tech and techenabled companies have moved in to tap into world-class internet services, access skilled talent, and be a part of the growing local tech community and downtown revitalization efforts. The Future is Here Tech companies filling vacant buildings in downtown Eugene not only bring new highwage jobs, but also create customers for established restaurants and retail locations, plus for those businesses, eateries (and drinkeries) that are newly popping up in the area as things grow. While there are exciting projects underway in the 5th Street Market Expansion, Knight Campus, and Riverfront, there are also

26 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

significant positive changes and opportunities that are here today. The Miner Building The Miner Building on Broadway was Eugene’s first high-rise, built in 1925. A remodel of the historic building in 2017, coupled with a recent connection to EUGNet, Oregon’s largest open-access fiber optic network, has helped make this building very attractive to new tenants — including tech companies. Tim Campbell, of Campbell Commercial Real Estate, manages The Miner. “We have seen a surge in occupancy with tech firms. Thirty-six months ago we were about 60 percent full with some vacancies remaining open for more than a decade,” said Campbell.

Today the building is 94 percent full with new tenants, Revolution Design Group among them. Revolution Design Group Revolution Design Group, a creative agency, is currently located on the sixth floor of The Miner. The firm’s clients include familiar organizations and brands Yogi Tea, Ninkasi, GloryBee, and the Oregon Department of Agriculture. Revolution Design has grown out of its original offices and is now in the final phase of building out 4,200 square feet of space on the ground floor, largely in spaces that had previously been vacant. The company’s new offices will accommodate up to 35 employees. Of note, the new space will include a branded art

gallery and coffee shop, both of which will be open to the public. “We’re certainly breaking the mold, expanding outside of our core industry and taking a calculated risk,″ said Jennifer Revoal, the company’s founder. Revoal sees the new space as a future hub for creativity, arts, and innovation downtown. Tech companies don’t typically have a traditional retail presence, but Revoal sees creating space on the ground floor in downtown Eugene as the best way to invite the community in. The art gallery will feature work from Revolution Design Group employees, as well as a rotating exhibits from visiting artists. The Citizens Building One block over, on Oak Street in downtown Eugene, is The Citizens Building. This 10story building was built in 1975 and is currently Eugene’s tallest commercial building. Historically the building has been home to a number of financial services companies, but it, too, has seen an influx of new tenants in recent years and is now 95 percent occupied. “The more tech companies learn about The Citizens Building the more attractive it becomes to them,” says Janet Brown, the building’s manager. “The multifaceted levels of security the building provides, and the nonrestrictive/wide-open architectural structure of each floor enable very flexible design layouts,” Brown shared.

The Citizens Building will be the new temporary home of Tyndale Advisors in June and July, while renovations on its new building at 1 East Broadway are completed. The ground floor of The Citizens Building will soon be the new home of Charles Schwab, complete with a customer lounge that includes amenities and stock trading stations. SentinelOne The Citizens Building is also home to cyber security firm SentinelOne, which just celebrated its first anniversary in Eugene. SentinelOne now has 40 employees in the Eugene office and is making room for more, having just taken over the entire 8,200square-foot sixth floor from Oregon Pacific Bank. “We are making Eugene our primary support site in the U.S. for both our enterprise customers, and all federal business. The combination of incredible talent, a vibrant city center, and affordable cost of living, makes Eugene our main tech center in the western hemisphere, and a major part of our global success,” shared Eran Ashkenazi, Senior Vice President of Global Support at SentinelOne. SentinelOne recently earned prestigious “FedRAMP In Process” certification, moving the firm one step further toward full FedRAMP authorization. The firm is currently hiring for 12 new positions in Eugene, across 5 different roles: business development, technical account management, network operation center analyst, inside sales, and support engineering.

A Growing Trend There are many reasons that the Southern Willamette Valley is attractive to tech companies. The University of Oregon’s Computer Science program has never been stronger and will be complemented this fall by a new Software Engineering bachelor’s degree program at Northwest Christian University, as well as a new Cyber Security associates degree program at Lane Community College. Availability of skilled talent increasingly sets the region apart, making it a very good time to grow a tech company here. So, who’s next?

Matt Sayre VP, TAO / Head of TAO - Southern Willamette Valley Matt is an Oregon native and University of Oregon Alumni, with degrees in Economics, Business, and Geography. After finding professional success in the Bay Area and Portland, he followed the Salmon pattern and returned home to raise his two boys in the southern Willamette Valley. In the Spring of 2015 Matt joined The Technology Association of Oregon, based in Eugene. In the Summer of 2015, Eugene was recognized as one of the Top 10 up and coming tech cities in the Nation Technology Association of Oregon 123 NE Third Avenue, Suite 210 Portland, Oregon 97232 503-228-5401

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 27

OREGON INTERNATIONAL PORT OF COOS BAY

Coos

FIONA BAI

Port Repairs and Rehabilitates 37 Timber Bridges Along the Coos Bay Rail Line

Port Repairs and Rehabilitates 37 Timber Bridges Along the Coos Bay Rail Line The Coos Bay Rail Line (CBRL) has concluded repair and rehabilitation work on 37 timber bridge structures along the CBRL. The rail line is owned and operated by the Oregon International Port of Coos Bay (Port). The Port contracted with Scott Partney Construction to complete work on the bridges. The last phase of the project will be final inspection by the Port’s contracted bridge engineering firm, Stantec Inc. Coos Bay Rail Line is a short line class III railroad owned and operated by the Port of Coos Bay. The 134-mile long line provides connections to the North American railway network for manufacturing operations in

28 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

Coos, Douglas, and Lane Counties, and for marine terminals in the Coos Bay harbor. In total, there are 121 bridges throughout the entire line with timber bridges making up most bridge structures. Like all transportation infrastructure, CBRL requires constant maintenance and upgrades in order to ensure the rail is in good working order. Project work included replacement of identified timber bridge bent caps; timber bridge stringers; timber bridge deck ties; structural repairs or reframe of identified timber bridge bents; furnishing and installing ballast at timber bridge approaches; and surfacing and tamping of track at timber bridge approaches. Total project cost was $2.3 million, with funding

provided by an Oregon Lottery Backed Bond grant awarded to the Port in 2013. Ensuring the integrity of bridge infrastructure along the rail line is important to maintain the economic vitality of the region. CBRL currently supports 10 shippers who utilize the rail line to move cargo daily. “This project is important to not only the rail line, but to the economic health of the Southwest Oregon region,” says Project Manager, Rick Adamek. “It takes a team to pull off large rehabilitation projects such as this. We thank Scott Partney Construction and Stantec for helping to ensure the continued success of CBRL.” Fiona Bai, Marketing & Media   Oregon International Port of Coos Bay   Phone: 541-266-3722

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 29

FLYING LESSONS

Oregon

THE LEARNING CURVE, GARY ANTHES

How stories from Aviation can make us better Managers

In this, the fourth installment of our six part series, we look at the role of Delivery in business value creation and examine, through the lens of lessons learned, an example of delivery from the field of aviation. The picture of Boeing’s iconic 737 airliner represents a culmination of aviation lessons for business managers. In microcosm, the 737 represents the result of five activities all organizations must do to be viable. Boeing observed their environment and communicated, organized and delivered a product that it has improved over time. The ability to Observe, Communicate, Organize, Deliver and Improve are critical to business success. Moreover, the business that does these five activities well is on its way beyond viability and on its way towards achieving enterprise excellence. Last month we covered Organization with a look at Professor Richard Hackman’s observations about what makes teams work and how aircraft crews and their teamwork are influenced by the intentions of the organization and the context of their operations. This month we look at Delivery and take a lesson from aviation that can help us improve business performance. Without the ability and capacity to deliver, why does a business exist? As managers, we waste time observing opportunity, communicating knowledge and organizing if we cannot deliver on organizational commitments and create value. The key, of course, to successful delivery rests on the skillful management of constraints and resources that affect our ability to execute efficiently (at minimum cost) and effectively (with intended results).

30 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

In 1936, Theodore Paul “TP” Wright published “Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes” in the Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences. TP Wright observed what became known as the Learning Curve. In the article, he outlines a pattern of behavior where costs per unit drop as quantities increase, ascribing the phenomenon to learning. Stated another way, Wright observed that the more you make of something, the better you get at it. Central to his observation was the fact that with each doubling of the output quantity, the per unit labor hours are reduced at a constant rate. He plotted this pattern of improvement showing a gradual lowering of unit cost as the number of units increased – the natural consequence of repetition and learning (see diagram Traditional Learning Curve). Understanding the improved utilization of labor represented in the learning curve puts the manager in a better position to improve delivery. (Cautionary Note: The Learning Curve should not be confused with Economies of Scale. Simply put, a Learning Curve typically has to do with shifts in a cost curve for a product related to learning while keeping other factors constant; Economies of Scale has to do with movement along a cost curve in a single time period associated with changes in various factors that affect costs.) We all know intuitively that tasks become easier the more we do them – we learn from experience. Costs associated with prototypes and first article

units often exceed their value in the market. This is true because at the start of any new endeavor we have not yet learned how to deliver efficiently. Look again at the Traditional Learning Curve diagram and envision a per unit Break-Even cost of $55 (Dashed Green line). The Cost Curve (Solid Red line) shows the first two Units ($90 and $58 respectively) exceeding the break-even point. After the second unit, per unit cost drops (because of learning) and by the delivery of the fourth unit, the product is profitable. The depiction in the diagram represents a 65% Learning Curve. This means that Unit 4 (at $38) is 65% of Unit 2 (at $59) which was 65% of Unit 1 (at $90). Every time output doubles, per unit cost drops by 35%. Practice Makes Perfect.

Traditional Learning Curve Example In the eighty years since TP Wright published his article the forces behind the Learning Curve have been shown to be remarkably consistent. So consistent that accurate cost estimates for new products can be made based upon similarities to past products prior to production as well as after completion of the first few units. The Learning Curve model is so consistent that a manager collecting accurate information can apply it in the context of the organization’s ability to deliver desired outcomes into the future. Look again at the Traditional Learning Curve diagram. Based

upon results up to Unit 4 we can see how Unit 8 will cost 65% of the Unit 4 ($38 x 65% = $25). Learning’s impact on delivery is worthy of attention for a number of reasons. First, by using examples of past outcomes to estimate of the slope (percent change) of your learning curve will lead to more accurate delivery estimates. Second, using the learning curve with break-even analysis, we can create expectations about per unit cost at various quantities and compare actual performance to estimates. Finally, and this is perhaps the most valuable lesson, Learning Curve analysis can be applied to your business model regardless of the product and/or service you provide by focusing efforts on those aspects of delivery that under your control and benefit from learning. Delivery of products and services takes many paths depending upon such diverse factors such as your team’s abilities, company capabilities, technology deployed, customer expectations, access to inputs, organizational culture, etc. Typically, learning curve analysis is applied to physical products in large-scale serial production. However, do not assume that the learning curve does not apply to custom, make-to-order or low volume discrete product environment. In those circumstances where custom or finite small production runs do not allow for product-based learning, you can improve delivery by focusing on workflow. When delivering discrete or custom products/ services the common denominator is the method used to deliver results. When we focus on products, as in the case of the typical learning curve analysis, we look for efficiency but when looking at methods we strive for effectiveness. A good example of this approach is to understand how projects can benefit from the application the Learning Curve (see diagram Learning Curve Applied to Projects Example). In the job shop environment if we focus on the hours required to manage a project (the method), as opposed to hours required to make a part (the product), we will see that over time the learning curve will

reflect fewer hours required to complete the same standardized project tasks. Learning Curve Applied to Projects Example

While the classic definition of a process (Repetitive set of activities that turn inputs into outputs, has a distinct beginning, a clear deliverable and that is measurable.) applies, if we focus on workflow as the deliverable, the potential for improvement becomes clear. For example, in a job shop that makes unique parts in small batches using customer-supplied drawings and specifications there is little to gain in the study of the part itself in the same way one would in a mass production situation. On the other hand, if each job is seen as a project (Nonroutine, one-time effort limited by time, budget, resources, and performance specifications designed to meet customer needs), it becomes more clear that the focus ought to be on the methods used to deliver results. In this example, the shop floor must have accurate information to process the batch of parts. Drawings of the part need to be clear, understandable and applicable within the context of the equipment and talent available. If the project workflow includes standardized screening methods to review customer provided drawings we can head off precious time wasted if inadequate information escapes the workflow and is released to the shop only to be re-routed back through the project

workflow for clarification. The opportunity in this example is to ensure that standardized processes reduce small batch risks and support improved workflow results. Coming down the Learning Curve (Solid Red Line) in the manner that incoming design specifications are accurately communicated, we reduce waste by eliminating the time typically required to fix errors. Learning is in relation to improved workflow, as project management methods improve and the hours consumed decline. This opportunity to improve delivery requires a shift in organizational thinking, from making parts and parts as the deliverable to managing projects and as having project completion as the deliverable. The Lesson for Managers: While most businesses are not making aircraft from the ground up, they are processing information and executing activities. Regardless of the product or service, efficient and effective delivery is must for survival. Understanding the Learning Curve can be critical to ensuring delivery. While TP Wright’s original Learning Curve focused on the cost of making parts, it provides valuable lessons for us as managers when we expand its basic tenants and apply them to all the ways that our business can learn and deliver value to our customers. …………………. Further reading: Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes, T.P. Wright, Journal of Aeronautical Sciences, February 1936 The Learning Curve, Gary Anthes, Computerworld, July 2, 2001 © 2019 Praxis Analytics Inc. All Rights Reserved. Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 31

ENERGY TRUST OF OREGON

Oregon

SUZETTE RILEY C+C

Energy Trust invites public input on draft 2020-2024 Strategic Plan

PORTLAND, Ore. — June 26, 2019 — Energy Trust of Oregon welcomes public comment to inform its draft 2020-2024 Strategic Plan. The strategic plan builds on the organization’s successful 17-year history serving Oregon residents and businesses with clean energy solutions. Once adopted, the strategic plan will help Energy Trust achieve its goals and deliver benefits to all Oregon customers of Portland General Electric, Pacific Power, NW Natural, Cascade Natural Gas and Avista and Southwest Washington customers of NW Natural. Public comments are invited through August 2. After that time, Energy Trust staff and board of directors will consider the comments and propose changes if needed in the final draft, which will be presented for 32 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

consideration at the organization’s October 16 board meeting. “This is an exciting time for Energy Trust as we define the roadmap for our next five years,” said Michael Colgrove, executive director. “We anticipate the next five years to be full of changes in markets, policies, energy consumption and demands, and demographics. With these changes in mind, our plan features five focus areas that we believe will enable Energy Trust to maximize the value we can deliver to all eligible utility customers through new program designs and customer services.” The five focus areas of the strategic plan include:

Providing programs, information and services for all utility customers Energy Trust serves, with particular attention to underserved customers. This includes more services and tailored programs and offers to effectively serve people with lower incomes, communities of color and rural communities. Helping customers benefit from saving energy and generating renewable power is Energy Trust’s core work and is the priority focus area.   Delivering additional value to customers by linking energy efficiency and renewable energy to the approaches that utilities are using to meet changing energy needs. For example, Energy Trust will coordinate with utilities to boost customer adoption of energy-saving and solar technologies in

specific locations where utilities are seeking additional load management and flexibility.   Providing objective information and analyses to support development and implementation of energy-related policies. Energy Trust will continue to be a resource to the state and can share program and industry expertise to support emerging and new energy policies at the city, county or state level.

Enhancing the organization’s ability to quickly and effectively respond to changes, needs and new opportunities. In a rapidly changing landscape, Energy Trust must be able to identify promising new ideas and actively pursue innovation to continue delivering value to utility customers. Intentionally cultivating diversity in the board of directors, advisory councils, staff and contractors will help Energy Trust be successful.   How to get involved   1. Download the current strategic plan draft at www.energytrust.org/strategicplan.  2. Watch a 15-minute on-demand webinar featuring Executive Director Michael Colgrove presenting highlights of the draft plan.  3. Submit comments by August 2 via email to info@energytrust.org or by mail to   Energy Trust of Oregon, Attention: Strategic Plan, 421 SW Oak St., Suite 300, Portland, OR 97204.

Maximizing public purpose charge investments by leveraging additional funding to accomplish clean energy projects that offer multiple public benefits. A current example is irrigation modernization projects, which leverage a blend of funding from Energy Trust incentives, state and federal government, grants and more to achieve energy savings and generation, as well as other important benefits such as water conservation and economic development for rural communities.

About Energy Trust’s strategic planning process

The current strategic plan draft is a product of more than a year’s worth of work by Energy Trust staﬀ and board. Recently, the board held a public workshop to discuss a working draft of the plan and the five proposed focus areas. Energy Trust also has solicited input from its advisory councils, the Oregon Public Utility Commission, utility partners Portland General Electric, Pacific Power, NW Natural, Cascade Natural Gas and Avista, and other community stakeholders. This open process ensures that the board benefits from the input and perspectives of communities, partners and the public in shaping the organization’s direction.

Every five years, Energy Trust engages in a strategic planning process to define its goals, strategies and priorities for the coming years. The plan is required by a grant agreement with the OPUC.   A final version of the plan will be posted on Energy Trust’s website in October.

Energy Trust of Oregon is an independent nonprofit organization dedicated to helping utility customers benefit from saving energy and generating renewable power. Our services, cash incentives and energy solutions have helped participating customers of Portland General Electric, Pacific Power, NW Natural, Cascade Natural Gas and Avista save $3.4 billion on energy bills. Our work helps keep energy costs as low as possible, creates jobs and builds a sustainable energy future. Learn more at www.energytrust.org or call 1-866-368-7878.   Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 33

EDUCATIONAL EXCURSIONS

Crook, Harney

GREG HENDERSON

A Must-See Tour of Oregon’s Southeastern Corner

Steins Pillar is about 17 miles east of Prineville. A moderate four-mile hike takes you to the base of the 350 foot pillar named for Major Enoch Steen, though misspelled “Stein” in a few historical documents. Major Steen was a leader in the U.S. Army who led battles against native residents in much of the west including in the area where the small community of French Glenn (population 12, or maybe 15) is located in Harney County. Steens Mountain is named for him, though the missing apostrophe has been excused over time and habit. The near twenty-mile drive is worth the washboard stretches of otherwise well maintained gravel road a few miles south of French Glenn. At over 9,700 feet the peak of the mountain makes the steep valley of at least 3,000 feet below a spectacular site. It’s worth the trip to make

34 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

the visit as the gravel road and dust will never trump the amazing views.

Its possible the reputation of Peter French as a strong-willed man, quite confident in

A bullet in the head left Peter French immediately dead the day after Christmas in 1897. He was 48 at the time and never grew older. He must have believed he had won the argument with Edward Oliver, a local homesteader, as they had been constantly aggravated for ten years over property rights and access. Oliver was found not guilty of the murder of Peter French and soon left the area.

Dr. Hugh Glenn met the young Peter French in Red Bluff, California and hired him to work on his sheep ranch when French was 20 years old. He believed him to be skilled at leadership and livestock handling. This led to promoting French to lead the growth of his large ranch in southeast

French Glenn from a distance his methods and determination led to the court’s decision about Oliver’s innocence. Stories reflect that the men working for Peter French thought quite highly of him as did many people who knew him. He did have a way of interpreting some legal standards to suit his own intentions. The ownership of very large parcels of land near unoccupied federal land might find fencing stretched around the public property and being claimed as part of the ranch. The Homestead Act was used to buy land at very low prices from employees and neighbors. Edward Oliver was a homesteader whose land was surrounded by the ranch run by French. It was French’s refusal to grant a right-of-way to the Oliver property that led to French’s demise. Diamond is rare. Not so much as a gemstone but as a community. It lies about halfway between French Glenn and Burns at the 30 mile mark. Its hard to tell how many people live there without asking a local. The sign says 5 but someone scratched a 7 over it, perhaps there were two vandals wanting to be counted. There is a nice hotel where

20 and 40 acre parcels in an area where local residents said it would not be possible to make a living on such small acreage as they struggled to do so on 5,000 acres. Nevertheless, there is now water and other necessary infrastructure that makes Christmas Valley pleasant.

meals are served and a few rustic buildings remembering better days when the Diamond Ranch competed with the French-Glenn Livestock Company. A ride through Harney and Lake counties is not complete without stopping at the Crack in the Ground near Christmas Valley (population 1300). Christmas Valley was named by a developer from California who was possibly better at marketing than developing. He offered bargain deals for

Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019 | 35

It’s the Diamond Craters that attract attention. Left behind by volcanic activity over 7,000 years ago there is an auto tour of eleven small craters where lava spewed over the very large area leaving behind craters up to eighty feet high and perhaps two hundred yards across. It’s actually an archeologist’s dream.

Entrance to Crack in the Ground

A three-day excursion from Sutherlin to French Glenn was far short of the time needed to see it all. It does, however, set a notion that this is an often unseen part of Oregon that is deserving of consideration on everyone’s itinerary. Even those of us who are native Oregonians often admit to seldom visiting this vast and amazing part of our state. Promise yourself to put this on your “Bucket list”. Greg Henderson, Publisher

36 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

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Support your county fair. It’s good business. Be sure to visit county fairs this summer. Did you know that the county fair is a key economic driver is Oregon? Below is a list of all county fairs in Oregon from oregonfairs.org Baker County Fair Benton County Fair Clackamas County Fair Clatsop County Fair Columbia County Fair Coos County Fair Crook County Fair Curry County Fair Deschutes County Fair Douglas County Fair Gilliam County Fair Grant County Fair Harney County Fair Hood River County Fair Jackson County Fair Jefferson County Fair Josephine County Fair Klamath County Fair Lake County Fair Lane County Fair Lincoln County Fair Linn County Fair Malheur County Fair Marion County Fair Morrow County Fair Multnomah County Fair Oregon State Fair Polk County Fair

August 2-10 July 31 -August 3 August 13-17 July 30-August 3 July 17-21 July 23-27 August 7-10 July 24-27 July 31 – August - 4 .August 6-10 August 28-September 1 August 15-18 September 3-8 July 24-27 July 10-14 July 24-27 August 14-17 August 1-4 August 29-September 2 July 24-28 July 4-7 July 17-20 July 30-August 3 July 12-15 August 15-19 May 26-28 August 23-September 2 August 8-10

38 | Southern Oregon Business Journal July 2019

Sherman County Fair Tillamook County Fair Umatilla County Fair Union County Fair Wallowa County Fair Wasco County Fair Washington County Fair Wheeler County Fair Yamhill County Fair July 4-7 Lincoln County 10-14 Jackson County 12-15 Marion County 17-20 Linn County 17-21 Columbia County 23-27 Coos County 24-28 Lane County 24-27 Curry County 24-27 Hood River County 24-27 Jefferson County 25-28 Washington County 30-August 3 Clatsop County 30-August 3 Malheur County

August 31-3 Benton County 31-3 Union County 31-3 Yamhill County 31-4 Deschutes County 1-4 Klamath County 2-10 Baker County 3-10 Wallowa County 6-10 Douglas County 6-10 Umatilla County 7-10 Crook County 7-11 Tillamook County 7-11 Wheeler County 8-10 Polk County 13-17 Clackamas County 14-17 Josephine County 15-18 Grant County 15-19 Morrow County

August 20-24 August 7-10 August 6-10 July 31 – August 3 August 3-10 August 22-25 July 25-28 August 7-11 July 31 -August 3 20-24 Sherman County 22-25 Wasco County 23-Sept. 2 Oregon State Fair 28-September 1 Gilliam County 29-September 2 Lake County September 3-8 Harney County

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