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State investment slew down while FDI saw positive signals
Among Vietnam’s key import products, the items that witnessed the strong import growth rates in Aug 2021 include rubber (+137.6% yoy), fertilizer (+90.7% yoy), cotton (+64.4% yoy), chemical products (+62.2% yoy) and steel (+51.8% yoy).
Figure 10: Top export products in term of value in 10M21 (% yoy) Figure 11: Top import products in term of value in 10M21 (% yoy)
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Source: Vietnam Customs, VNDIRECT RESEARCH Source: Vietnam Customs, VNDIRECT RESEARCH
Basing on the actual performance of manufacturing sector and exports activities, we maintain our forecast for 2021F Vietnam’s export value growth at 15% yoy. We expect 2021F Vietnam’s import value growth of 23.2% yoy and Vietnam’s trade surplus of US$0.3bn in 2021F (vs. trade surplus of US$19.9bn in 2020).
State investment slew down while FDI saw positive signals
Stricter social-distancing measures and construction material prices hike caused several delays in the implementation of public investment in 3Q21. Per GSO data, the implemented state capital (public investment) in 11M21 dropped 8.7% yoy to VND367.7tr (vs. an increase of 34.0% yoy seen in the same period last year), equivalent to 73.8% of the full-year target.
Figure 12: Public investment accelerated recovery in Oct
Source: GSO, VNDIRECT RESEARCH
Figure 13: Foreign direct investment (Jan 2019- Nov 2021)
Source: GSO, VNDIRECT RESEARCH
