March/April 2015 by SPAN magazine

U.S.-India Strategic

Partnership on Display at AeroIndia 2015

Ambassador Richard R. Verma

Photographs courtesy U.S. Consulate General Chennai

inaugurated the U.S. pavilion at Aero India 2015, held in Bengaluru from February 18 to 22. Ambassador Verma called the exhibit “the best of U.S. aviation and defense technology.” “Airshows like Aero India allow us to demonstrate our commitment to the strategic relationship with key international partners,” said Ambassador Verma. “And in 2015, the strategic relationship the United States has with India is one of our most important.” That commitment was on full display at Aero India, including a high-level U.S. delegation and an impressive array of American military platforms and personnel. Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Honeywell, Esterline, Bell, GE Aviation and Sikorsky were among the 64 U.S. companies

that had set up pavilions at the show. U.S. aircraft on display included F-15C Eagles, F-16C Fighting Falcons, a KC-135 tanker, a C-17 Globemaster III, and a P-8A Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft. “Frequent engagement between our militaries, whether through conducting a combined exercise or participating in the new military education partnership announced between our respective national defense universities, is a key pillar of our defense relationship,” Ambassador Verma wrote in an op-ed on the show. “Our security partnership with India will help safeguard against global instability, protect freedom of navigation in the air and sea, and enhance prosperity throughout the entire AsiaPacific and Indian Ocean region.”

Above: U.S. Air Force aircraft on display at Aero India 2015. Below left and below: Ambassador Richard R. Verma interacts with U.S. and Indian Special Forces who participated in Aero India 2015.

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Strengthening Economic Ties By Steve Fox

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From Israel to India By Michael Gallant

Precision Prediction By Carrie Loewenthal Massey

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Majestic

From Skills to Careers By Wesley Teter and Don Martin Heights By Steve Fox

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“The Growing People-tto-PPeople Connections Make the Relationship Unique” By Jane Varner Malhotra

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22 Front cover: Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets President Barack Obama on his arrival in New Delhi on January 25, 2015. Photograph © AP-WWP

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anvi Madan is a fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. and director of The India Project. Madan studies India’s foreign policy and focuses on its relations with the United States and China. She also researches the intersection between India’s energy policies and its foreign and security policies. Excerpts from an interview.

“The Growing

People-to-People Connections Make the Relationship

Unique” By JANE VARNER MALHOTRA

Q&A on the state of U.S.-India bilateral relations.

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U.S.-INDIA RELATIONS

How have U.S.-India relations evolved in the past decade? There is little doubt that if you looked back to 10 years ago, India and the U.S. had a different relationship. While the two countries were cordial, over the past decade, not only did the mood about each other change, but actual cooperation and links have evolved and increased. There are more high-level visits and increasing bilateral tradeâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;in goods and services, up to nearly $100 billion annually. In terms of defense sales, India bought more

Official White House photo by PETE SOUZA

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Left: Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets President Barack Obama on his arrival in New Delhi in January. Far left: President Barack Obama reviews the guard of honor, led by Wing Commander Pooja Thakur, at the ceremonial welcome at Rashtrapati Bhavan.

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The U.S. is home to one of the largest, most diverse diasporas of overseas Indians.

Above far right: President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at an expanded bilateral meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi in January. Below: President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the CEO Forum Roundtable in New Delhi.

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military equipment from the U.S. over the last three years than it did from any other country. On the economic side, in both trade and investment, there’s more scope. Investment, today, is not just American companies investing in India, but also Indian companies investing in the U.S., including in states like Wyoming, North Dakota and states like West Virginia, with companies that want to sell coal to India. These relationships involve not just big companies—states and municipalities are engaging with each other, too. The growing people-to-people connections make the relationship unique. The U.S. is home to one of the largest, most diverse diasporas of overseas Indians. More than 100,000 Indian students are enrolled in U.S. institutions. Indian Americans range from those driving cabs to those heading Fortune 500 companies. The Indian American community continues to make its mark in a variety of spheres—with actors like Kal Penn and Mindy Kaling; in politics, with Nikki Haley as governor of South Carolina; and in policy, with Rajiv Shah who, till recently, headed USAID. These kinds of links have built greater connectivity between the two countries over the past decade. Where does the U.S.-India relationship stand today? Until recently, while the structural elements in the relationship were good, a sense of frustration between the two countries, in terms of policy, was getting magnified. Differences were being highlighted, and recalled, rather than commonalities. In anticipation of President Barack Obama’s trip to India in January, both governments used two key words to describe the visit: transformational and reinvigorating. There has been a reinvigoration. With these high-level visits, there is more interest, attention and energy in the relationship. Both countries are thinking about the relationship in strategic terms. President

Obama’s visit may not pay off overnight, but the strengthening relationship is useful for both countries in the short and long terms. Of course, the visit included several visible elements: the release of the Delhi Declaration of Friendship, the Republic Day ceremony watched by millions of Indians and the joint radio address by the two leaders. Now, the Indian prime minister is not afraid to say that America is our friend and that, quoting his Wall Street Journal op-ed from 2014, the two countries have a “stake in each other’s success.” The visit also revealed a shift in approach with the release of the U.S.-India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region. Traditionally, India has been hesitant to publicly express opinions that Beijing might find provocative. Now, both countries are sending a signal to Beijing: We don’t want to contain you, but we do have concerns, and we want stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Of course, this is not only about China, but many concerns revolve around the nature of China’s rise. The three countries have a lot that they work on together, including issues like stability in the Middle East. Tell us about your research on the connection of India’s energy policy to its foreign and security policies. How do we see this connection in the U.S.-India relationship? India’s energy policy plays an increasing role in the relationship, whether it’s because of India’s role as a major consumer of energy, or a guarantor of security, or a contributor of stability in regions where resources come from. From 2017, U.S. gas will start to be exported directly to India. Today, U.S. companies are exporting coal to India. There is hope that U.S. companies will be involved in nuclear power as well. And with clean energy, the U.S. will play a key role in financing and technology.

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What was most significant about President Obama’s visit to India? The visit had elements of both symbolism and substance. The proposed defense cooperation is significant; if indeed, they move on the initiatives they are talking about. They identified projects on the co-development and co-production side which, in principle, means an agreement to co-develop and co-produce pieces of military equipment. Both countries renewed the defense framework agreement a few months before it was to expire. Although there was speculation by the media that the visit was all hype, that was not the case. The two countries did not conclude every agreement; in some areas, they are continuing to explore. But both sides will need to deliver on the promises they made. We have seen these moments of optimism before; previous experience means there are doubts. Therefore, most will look at this with cautious optimism.

There has been a reinvigoration. With these high-level visits, there is more interest, attention and energy in the relationship. Both countries are thinking about the relationship in strategic terms.

Courtesy Press Information Bureau, Government of India

The two countries are not on the same page on climate change, because the U.S. would perhaps like to see a greater Indian commitment on emissions reduction. But, India is reluctant to slow down its growth to reduce emissions. The U.S. hopes India will shift this position and/or use a higher percentage of clean energy. In recent years, India has improved in terms of energy efficiency, and also has been influenced by U.S. standards, to develop better building codes. From a foreign policy perspective, energy needs to have an impact on the U.S.-India relationship, potentially a collaborative one. But the two countries also have differences on the Middle East. The U.S. would like India’s involvement in ensuring Middle East’s stability, but it is complicated by certain longstanding relationships and imperatives—including oil and gas needs and presence of Indian citizens—which India has in the region, with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Iran, for example.

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MARCH/APRIL 2015

Courtesy Press Information Bureau, Government of India

Left: President Barack Obama and President Pranab Mukherjee at Rashtrapati Bhavan in January. Below left: President Barack Obama pays tribute at Raj Ghat. Below left: House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi greets President Pranab Mukherjee (from left), First Lady Michelle Obama and President Barack Obama at the State Dinner at Rashtrapati Bhavan. Bottom left: President Barack Obama interacts with the audience after delivering a speech on U.S.-India relations at Siri Fort Auditorium in New Delhi.

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Official White House photo by PETE SOUZA

The U.S.-India relationship will keep improving if both sides continue to reform their policies, giving the attention this relationship needs, so that the broad goals highlighted in these documents and speeches are realized.

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Official White House photo by PETE SOUZA

What surprised you about the visit of President Obama? The number of personal gestures made. Perhaps this is not so surprising, since both leaders are very aware of optics. They understand the power of communications. One could see a level of comfort develop between them. Probably, the most unexpected for me was the joint vision statement on the AsiaPacific. I thought they would elaborate on the topic, but they released a separate document. And, the Delhi Declaration.

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What challenges and opportunities will we see going forward? From my perspective, I see three things: implementation, implementation, implementation. The U.S.-India relationship will keep improving if both sides continue to reform their policies, giving the attention this relationship needs, so that the broad goals highlighted in these documents and speeches are realized. The two countries cannot lose sight of the broader interests involved, but they also need to just get things done. Getting things done is important for various reasons, including deepening the economic relationship to create stakeholders who will make this relationship sustainable. When people in the two countries feel linked to each other, businesses as well as citizens, the relationship between the countries will only grow stronger. Jane Varner Malhotra is a freelance writer based in Washington, D.C.

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Strengthening Economic Ties By STEVE FOX

private sector roles. Rossow visited Bengaluru, Bhubaneswar, Hyderabad, New Delhi, Pune, Mumbai and Kolkata in December 2014 and interacted with students, young entrepreneurs, economists, scholars, industrialists and policymakers. Excerpts from an interview.

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Facebook and Hollywood, will be a powerful driving force bridging our nations in the future. But, India’s youth has serious questions over American policy that must not be ignored. What are some of the major factors that have brought the U.S.-India relationship from where it was 10 years ago to where it is today? About a decade ago, the American and Indian strategic communities laid out a roadmap for strategic cooperation, most notably with the January 2004 “Next Steps in Strategic Partnership” joint statement. This added a powerful fourth leg in our engagement, adding to development, business and diaspora ties. With a deepening strategic relationship, we have started to see a transformation in our defense collaboration, and hope to see similar progress in nuclear power and space exploration in the near future.

President Barack Obama (left) shakes hands with Prime Minister Narendra Modi after their joint media address at Hyderabad House in New Delhi during his visit to India in January.

BUSINESS

United States’ economic engagement with India from a variety of

helping drive the

What were your most significant impressions from your recent trip to India? I visit India often, but this was the most engagement I have had with university students. It provided some unique insights as to how India’s educated youth view the U.S.-India relationship. I gave lectures at 11 universities and after every lecture, I found students raising a similar set of issues. These included questions over America’s continued military support to Pakistan, America’s military interventions in the Middle East and concerns that the U.S. will pressure India’s leaders to adopt environmental measures that will impede their nation’s economic development. These concerns are important for American policymakers to recognize. Americans believe that India’s younger generation, being more conversant with

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Richard M. Rossow holds the Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies and is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. For the last 16 years, he has been

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With a deepening strategic relationship, we have started to see a transformation in our defense collaboration, and hope to see similar progress in nuclear power and space exploration in the near future.

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Looking ahead to the next 10 years, what factors could positively influence economic engagement between the two countries? Five key factors, I believe, are very likely to add additional positive momentum to our bilateral economic relationship. India’s growth: Indian economic growth just bottomed out at 4.5 percent. While that is half of India’s rate from a decade ago, it is still considerably higher than most Western nations. Moreover, growth projections for the coming years are considerably higher, and we are already seeing dramatic increases in foreign investment. Business customs merging: As Indian firms become global players and American firms understand India better, the small “business customs” issues that sometimes frustrate executives on both sides will decrease. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments: In the coming years, America will begin exporting part of its shale gas wealth. India has already

contracted for nearly six million tons of LNG per year, and may sign deals for more in the future, thereby turning the U.S. into a major energy supplier to India. Manufacturing shifts from China: China is fast losing its place as the “workshop of the world,” at least in terms of new investments in manufacturing. While there are many critical reforms that India needs to put in place to become a manufacturing magnet, at the very least if less incremental manufacturing investment “mandatorily” goes to China, India will stand to benefit. Faster pace of reforms: While business will always call for faster implementation of good economic policies, it is fair to say that the pace of economic reform under the current government is much faster than in recent years. This gives confidence to investors.

Photographs by JAYESSH C. DADLANEY

Above: Richard M. Rossow addresses members of the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce in Mumbai. Above right: Rossow participates in a roundtable discussion with members of the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce at the American Business Corner in Pune.

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As Indian firms become global players and American firms understand India better, the small “business customs” issues that sometimes frustrate executives on both sides will decrease.

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Again looking 10 years out, what are some of the obstacles that could derail closer economic engagement? America’s trade deficit with India: The U.S. has a large trade deficit with India—a bit over twoto-one in terms of America’s imports from India versus exports to India. We have deficits with other trading partners, but there is a threat that if the deficit with India remains high, we may see American policymakers use measures such as dumping investigations or import rules to help achieve a more balanced trade relationship.

Impact of America’s trade deals/trade diversion: The U.S. is currently engaged in the most robust set of trade talks in our country’s history. Deals with Europe (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), Asia and the Americas (Trans-Pacific Partnership), and a services-focused deal with many major economies (Trade in Services Agreement) will rewrite the patterns of trade flows. India is not a party to any of these deals, which could result in trade diversion around India. Some Indian states are further along than others in terms of economic engagement with the United States. What can be done to encourage other states to pursue this goal? The states that do the best job of attracting investment tend to do certain things. They support important economic reforms that the central government would like to enact. They have very open and easy access to their political leadership for visiting foreign business and government leaders. Their leaders travel to key markets and participate in global meetings like the World Economic Forum and, of course, work hard to create a favorable business climate. Every state leader wants to show progress in terms of job creation and economic activity. Foreign investment can play a small but important role in this regard. Steve Fox is a freelance writer, former newspaper publisher and reporter based in Ventura, California.

MARCH/APRIL 2015

From

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By MICHAEL GALLANT

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Israel to

lthough it’s hundreds of kilometers from Jodhpur to Jerusalem, New Delhi to Damascus, the worlds of India and the Middle East have grown inextricably linked in ways both obvious and hidden. It’s a complex relationship, to say the least, and one that will have profound effects on the future of all involved. Jon B. Alterman, senior vice president and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., is an expert on this subject. He has traveled to India twice in recent years, speaking about international relations and meeting professors, students and politicians. Excerpts from an interview.

When it comes to economics, why is stability in the Middle East a shared goal for the United States and India? Even though the United States is importing less and less oil directly from the Middle East, the U.S. economy is deeply tied to the global economy. And the global economy, especially all of the United States’ allies in Asia, gets the overwhelming bulk of its imported oil from Middle Eastern suppliers. And that includes India? Yes, India uses oil and gas, and its refineries also turn Middle Eastern oil into products that people can use. So, India is tied to the global energy economy. The U.S. has an interest, as part of its relationship with a whole range of friends around the world, in keeping the global energy economy moving smoothly. How are the United States and India working toward that stability? People disagree on how to achieve it. India has a robust trade with Iran, for example, and its leadership is engaged with the Iranian leadership. The U.S. is very concerned with the effects of many of Iran’s activities on regional stability, and has been much more cautious in engaging. As a major energy consumer, does India have a responsibility to act in ways that encourage Iran to be more responsible in its actions? If so, what could India

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THE MIDDLE EAST

Courtesy Jon B. Alterman

India

ALMITRA KIKA

Jon B. Alterman Above: Jon B. Alterman interacts with think tank representatives in Mumbai.

do? Questions like these have come up in a whole range of bilateral discussions. So, is India’s point of view somewhat different from that of the United States? India is very concerned with what they see as Sunni radicalism coming out of Saudi Arabia and into India, for example, and the Indian view of what causes instability—and what kind of balance there should be between oil-producing states in the region— is attuned to Indian interests. Those are, of course, not always going to be identical to American interests. Can you talk about the Islamic State’s impact? You have millions of Syrians and Iraqis being displaced, but you also have to look at what happens when people get trained by the Islamic State and come back home. What impacts might they have, both on their Muslim and non-Muslim communities? If you have people coming back, who not only argue for much stricter interpretations of Islamic law, but think it’s fine to kill and maim people who don’t share their ideas, that would change the character of Muslim communities in India, the United States and elsewhere. Do you see prospects for greater peace in the Middle East? Yes. You have a young and increasingly creative population that’s seeking outlets. You also have the contagion effect that we saw in the Arab Spring, where good ideas can take root more broadly because you 14 MARCH/APRIL 2015

have this very large population that shares a common language. Though we have seen a rise in radicalism, we have also seen a decline in ideology, and there’s a rising view that what really matters when it comes to governments is results. People don’t need rallies in the streets. They need leaders who can deliver better schools, clinics and so on. So, the seeds of a better future are there. Whether they will grow, and how strong, we’ll have to wait and see. Please tell us about your recent trip to India. I was participating in a conference at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, basically talking about security issues in the Middle East. I stayed on for a few extra days to talk with academics and others in New Delhi and Mumbai. But the best conversations I had were at the American Center in New Delhi. I had about 100 young people in a library and they were thoughtful, articulate and energetic. They listened well, asked good questions on Palestine and Iraq, and were eager to take information and use it. They were a great group to speak with. Will India have a major role in the Middle East moving forward? I’m convinced that we’re not going to be able to understand how the world works without better understanding how India works. This is the beginning of my efforts to understand India, and not the end. Michael Gallant is the founder and chief executive officer of Gallant Music. He lives in New York City.

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I’m convinced that we’re not going to be able to understand how the world works without better understanding how India works.

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Power, Peace and

By MICHAEL GALLANT

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ENERGY SECURITY

Courtesy Michael A. Levi

n the same day, leaders from any given country may discuss ways to generate electricity for its citizens without harming the environment as well as assess military threats posed by other nations. Do these topics seem oceans apart? On the contrary, the worlds of policy, climate change and national security have more in common than might meet the eye. The director of New York City-based Council on Foreign Relationsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; program on energy security and climate change, Michael A. Levi specializes in studying the nexus of energy and environment, policy and technology, and security issues around the world. Levi visited Hyderabad and New Delhi in 2013 and interacted with academicians, students, policymakers and industrialists. Excerpts from an interview.

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Energy expert Michael A. Levi discusses the impacts of climate change on energy security in the United States and South Asia.

Environmental Protection

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The big lesson from the solutions that various countries have found is that each needs to be tailored to the political and economic circumstances of the country in question.

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Please describe your role at the Council on Foreign Relations. I direct our Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and I’m also a senior fellow for energy and environment. I do everything from research and writing to public speaking, organizing events and working with colleagues to help them be effective. There’s no typical day. What is your work with India like? Earlier in my career, I focused on nuclear security and spent time thinking about U.S.India cooperation in that context. More recently, I’ve thought about India in the context of climate diplomacy, clean energy and natural gas production. American analysts often focus on China and spend very little time thinking about India. I think that’s unwise. In a nutshell, how would you explain what climate change means and why it’s so important to understand? Climate change refers to shifts in global temperature, precipitation and other dynamics that result from human activity. Climate change is important because climate affects everyone, and human actions have the potential to be highly disruptive over the coming decades and centuries. How would you define energy security? Energy security is much more ambiguous. Everyone has their own definition, but, roughly speaking, the intersection of energy and security is important. Energy has long been a major factor shaping the global security environment. Whether you look at World War II, the Iraq War or Middle East politics over the last half-century, you see energy and security deeply intertwined.

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How do you see the U.S. policy on climate change and energy security impacting India? U.S. energy and climate policy toward India has been increasingly focused on practical actions rather than high-level diplomatic outcomes. I think that’s the right direction. The U.S. and India have a lot they can work on together that might seem technical, whether that’s financial structures for solar energy or crafting regulations for natural gas development. But, those sorts of things are ultimately what transform energy systems and their security and climate impacts. There will obviously be places where the two countries disagree—energy sanctions in Iran is one obvious case—but that shouldn’t overshadow the opportunities for cooperation. What are some of the biggest challenges that the United States and other countries face when it comes to climate change and energy security? Dealing with both climate change and energy security requires large transformations to energy systems. Energy systems involve trillions of dollars that have been sunk over decades. A lot of people rely on the existing systems. Changing anything that large requires decades and, in some cases, the benefits won’t be seen for a long time to come. All of that makes transformation much more challenging. What are some of the solutions? The big lesson from the solutions that various countries have found is that each needs to be tailored to the political and economic circumstances of the country in question. What works in Germany won’t necessarily work in the U.S., and what works in the U.S. won’t necessarily work in India. It’s important to scour others’ experience for lessons, but it’s

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Michael A. Levi addresses students at Vignana Jyothi Institute of Management in Hyderabad.

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equally important to be careful in applying those lessons to the circumstances at hand. What can we all do to help? What fascinates me about energy and climate is that you can approach it from so many directions. You can look at it through the lens of engineering, political science, law, business, design and so many other areas. If young people are interested in these issues, they should find a way to get involved that allows them to also pursue the other areas that they are most excited about. Can you describe your recent experiences visiting India? The diversity of people I met with in Hyderabad and New Delhi was extraordinary. I typically meet with policymakers and businesspeople. This experience gave me the opportunity to meet with a diverse group of both of those, as well as with students and other community members. I found that exciting and interesting. The visit reinforced, for me, how different the circumstances in India are from those within the United States, and also the extraordinary value that working together can deliver. Michael Gallant is the founder and chief executive officer of Gallant Music. He lives in New York City.

MARCH/APRIL 2015

“Strategic Partnerships ”

The U.S. and India will now be able to cooperate in ways that will set them apart from other partners.

By STEVE FOX

You’re going to visit India in June. What’s on your agenda? I will be participating in dialogues and offering remarks on how U.S. foreign policy is changing, and what to expect in America’s policy debates about U.S. global engagement looking ahead to 2016. My main objective is to offer a balanced analysis of where America is in the world and how it seeks to update its foreign policy to match new realities in the world.

Brian Katulis is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress in Washington, D.C., where his work focuses on U.S. national security policy in the Middle East and South Asia. Katulis has served as a consultant for numerous U.S. government agencies, private corporations and nongovernmental organizations in several countries, including Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Excerpts from an interview.

What are some of the most important changes you see in the United States’ ongoing debate over national security? Today’s national security debate is a mix of the old and the new. In the old category fall issues that often dominate headlines day-today—traditional state-to-state rivalries, like the recent resurgence of Russia’s role in its neighborhood, as we have seen in Ukraine, and the decades-old threats from non-state terrorist and extremist networks like the Al Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham. Among new issues, cybersecurity tops the list, with multiple cyberattacks bringing this to the forefront. As I argued in a recent article for The Wall Street Journal’s Think Tank, five new security issues—cybersecurity and global economic strains among them—are likely to animate geopolitical debates and could shape the 2016 U.S. election in unpredictable ways. Does President Barack Obama’s recent trip to India signal a new approach to the relationship between the two countries and what might that look like? The recent summit between President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi set a new tone for the bilateral relationship. While the two countries have long worked closely on

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5 National Security Issues to Watch in 2015

Does the sharp fall in oil prices threaten the emergence of the United States as an energy superpower and what’s likely to happen on that front? The sharp fall in oil prices will put strains on many of the major oil-producing countries, especially the Middle Eastern nations that rely heavily on oil revenues to remain in power. In the U.S., the impact will be mixed. Lower oil prices will reduce the profit margins of U.S. energy producers, including in shale gas, but lower prices will also have a positive impact on U.S. consumers. Ultimately, the U.S. needs to take advantage of the recent energy revolution to craft a new global engagement policy that puts energy and climate change at the forefront of our foreign policy, something I argued for earlier this year. President Obama has taken some positive steps on this front, including in his most recent trips to India and China, but there is much more work to do.

“

The U.S. needs to take advantage of the recent energy revolution to craft a new global engagement policy that puts energy and climate change at the forefront of our foreign policy.

Steve Fox is a freelance writer, former newspaper publisher and reporter based in Ventura, California. To share articles go to http://span.state.gov MARCH/APRIL 2015 19

FOREIGN POLICY

Will we be seeing a more proactive foreign policy from the Administration during President Obama’s last two years in office? It’s difficult to predict with great certainty—the world is an unpredictable place these days. But second-term presidents often turn toward foreign policy in their final years in office in order to secure their historical legacy. It is a realm where presidents have more freedom to operate. In the second half of 2014, President Obama signaled a deeper engagement in global affairs—his leadership in forming a coalition to counter the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham, his engagement of India and China, and the opening with Cuba. In the next year, the Obama Administration is looking to see more progress on global climate change policies at an international conference in Paris and setting a new agenda for global development at the United Nations.

The rise of ISIS in the Middle East surprised many people and seemed to confirm that the United States will not be able to disengage from the region. What’s your view on this? It is clear from the events of the past two years that the U.S. remains an indispensable power in the Middle East. It has a leadership position that no other outside power has and it has a diverse network of partnerships on the security and diplomatic fronts in the region. The U.S. is likely to remain deeply engaged in the region. But, increasingly, it will look to build partnerships with reliable actors to ensure that the costs and burdens are shared.

many issues, India has been reluctant to fully and publicly embrace its strategic partnership with the U.S. With this visit, India moved past its historic ambivalence, opening the door to more substantial cooperation on everything from climate and energy to development of defense systems. The U.S. and India will now be able to cooperate in ways that will set them apart from other partners—something that, in the past, raised concerns in New Delhi. In many ways, the U.S.-India engagement over the past several years could serve as a model for how two countries can work together to build a new framework for cooperation on a wide range of issues affecting the human security interests of both.

http://goo.gl/BiYytu

Courtesy William B. Gail

Precision Prediction By CARRIE LOEWENTHAL MASSEY

o you trust your local weather report? Can you know ahead of time if a predicted rainstorm will flood or merely sprinkle or if a heat wave will last three days or seven? If your weather data is coming from the Global Weather Corporation, it’s safe to say you can rely on it. The corporation uses some of the most advanced forecasting technologies available, to deliver data on weather elements like daily high and low temperatures in every corner of the globe. William B. Gail, an electrical engineer, co-founded Global Weather Corporation in 2009 and now serves as its chief technology officer. He helped establish the corporation as a weather wholesaler to provide weather forecast data services to other companies, which then package and deliver the forecasts to businesses and consumers. One such provider is WeatherBug, via its website and mobile app. Excerpts from an interview.

When and why did you co-found Global Weather Corporation (GWC)? We formally started GWC in 2009, but only began full operations with paid staff upon receiving external investment in 2012. Our goal was to commercialize the technology developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which promised to improve on the accuracy of weather forecasts through a technique known as post-processing. In short, this technology replicates what a human meteorologist does, but at fine scales globally, and without the need to ever sleep. Unlike human meteorologists, we can pay as much attention to the accuracy of a forecast for a tiny Ugandan village as for Paris. Our technology starts with the best model data coming from the world’s meteorological agencies, along with the latest observations. We apply artificial intelligence to decide how much weight to give to each and combine them all to produce a forecast accurate as far ahead as 14 days. By doing this, we can improve on all of the underlying forecast data.

What are the most current trends in weather forecasting in the United States? Improved weather information quality and better access to it— these are the key trends today. The first trend is driven by companies beginning to understand the financial impacts of weather-related issues associated with their supply chains, consumer sensitivities to weather and other issues. They are learning how accurate weather information can make them money. It is cheaper compared to the cost of not having that information. So, they are demanding rapid progress in accuracy and they are willing to pay for it. This demand for accuracy influences our entire community, from the basic science through the needed observing systems to today’s sophisticated computer models. The other key trend is the rapidly advancing means for accessing weather information through web and mobile applications. A decade ago, getting good weather information to the people who needed it was challenging. The growth of the Internet and increased penetration of mobile devices have provided us

Accurate weather forecasting improves data accessibility,

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JAYESSH C. DADLANEY

William B. Gail addresses equity fund managers and investors at Kotak Securities in Mumbai.

Carrie Loewenthal Massey is a New York City-based freelance writer.

Global Weather Corporation www.globalweathercorp.com

National Center for Atmospheric Research https://ncar.ucar.edu

WeatherBug

http://weather.weatherbug.com

American Meteorological Society www.ametsoc.org

Indian Meteorological Society www.imd.gov.in/ims

economics and everyday life.

To share articles go to http://span.state.gov MARCH/APRIL 2015 21

WEATHER FORECASTING

others innovate. The commercial sector, for example, is best at understanding customer needs and producing services closely matched to each customer. India is still dominated by its government sector, so innovation happens less quickly. This will change over the next decade. It will be exciting to watch or participate. How do you envision a U.S.-India partnership developing around weather forecasting? India’s needs are different from the U.S.’s, but many lessons learned within the U.S. are relevant to India. One challenge is establishing mechanisms for trust between the sectors in India and between parties in any U.S.-India partnership. We are working to build a platform to enable such trusted interactions through a new partnership between the American Meteorological Society and the Indian Meteorological Society. Other forms of partnership, such as government-to-government, can complement this as means to share lessons.

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many new ways to get information to people, even in remote parts of the world. How do consumer demands and private forecasters influence these trends? Growing demand, both from consumers and from companies, is a key driver today in the field’s rapid progress. Both higher quality and easier access are among the core needs we see. Weather services companies are responding with both. Even small companies have enormous opportunities today, as we see with the proliferation of weather applications for our phones. Innovation is central, with everyone working to meet the growing demand in new ways that set them apart from other players. What is your view of the weather forecasting scenario in India? The innovation cycle we have experienced in the U.S. is only now starting in India. The commercial provider community, in particular, is still quite small. In the U.S., we have a healthy balance of three sectors—academia, government and commercial—of approximately equal size. Each sector brings particular strengths and each helps the

Can’t Picture a

World Devastated by These Games Will Do it for You

JEFF CHIU © AP-WWP

By AMY WESTERVELT

22 MARCH/APRIL 2015

Augmented and virtual reality games may help crack the code of getting humans to do something about the environment.

Climate Change?

woman peers through goggles embedded in a large black helmet. Forest sounds emanate from various corners of the room: a bird chirping here, a breeze whispering there. She moves slowly around the room. On the wall, a flat digital forest is projected so observers can get a rough idea of her surroundings. But, in her mind’s eye, this undergrad is no longer pacing a small, cramped room in a university lab. Thanks to that black helmet, she’s walking through the woods. In a minute, she’s handed a joystick that looks and vibrates like a chainsaw, and she’s asked to cut down a tree. As she completes the task, she feels the same sort of resistance she might feel if she were cutting down a real tree. When she leaves this forest, and re-enters the “real” world, her paper consumption will drop by 20 percent and she will show a measurable preference for recycled paper products. Those effects will continue into the next few weeks

and researchers hypothesize it will be a fairly permanent shift. By comparison, students who watch a video about deforestation or read an article on the subject will show heightened awareness of paper waste through that day, but they will return to their baseline behavior by the end of the week. The tree-cutting study is one of many that Stanford University has conducted in its Virtual Human Interaction Lab over the last several years in an attempt to figure out the extent to which a simulated experience can affect behavior. And, it’s part of a growing body of research that suggests virtual experiences may offer a powerful catalyst for otherwise apathetic groups to begin caring about issues and taking action, including on climate change. That’s important because while time spent in nature has been proven to be quite beneficial to human health, whether or not humans repay the favor tends to rely on the type of nature

CLIMATE CHANGE

Courtesy Virtual Human Interaction Lab, Stanford University

Below left and below: A participant wears a head-mounted display that enables him to look around the virtual forest in stereovision. He uses the haptic device to work the chainsaw on the screen to cut down a virtual tree, as shown in the screenshots.

To share articles go to http://span.state.gov MARCH/APRIL 2015 23

Above, above right, right and right center: Students learn about the basic biological processes in a pond ecosystem on EcoMUVE. Far right: Students explore a pond ecosystem using EcoMOBILE on smartphones.

experiences they have in their youth. In a 2009 study published in the journal PLOS ONE, researchers from the University of Pretoria in South Africa found that while people who spent time hiking and backpacking were more willing to support conservation efforts a decade or more later, those who had visited national parks or spent time fishing as kids were actually less inclined to do anything to support the environment. An earlier (2006) study on the relationship between nature experiences and environmentalism found that while those who had spent their youth in “wild” nature—defined as hiking or playing in the woods—were more likely to be environmentalists as adults, those who had been exposed to “domesticated” nature—defined as visits to parks, picking flowers, planting seeds or tending to gardens— were not. Given the unlikelihood of every child having a “wild” nature experience, researchers are on the hunt for other ways to cultivate environmentally responsible behavior. The latest work with virtual reality builds upon roughly half a century of behavioral studies that indicate humans’ willingness to shift behavior is directly correlated to our sense of control. Climate change, like many large-scale environmental issues, is a problem over which few people feel they have a direct impact—for better or worse. As researchers Sun Joo (Grace) Ahn and Jeremy Bailenson wrote in a paper in the journal Computers and Human Behavior [in 2014], individual actions

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taken at a micro-scale, like failing to recycle paper or support certain policies, can contribute, over time, to negative environmental consequences like deforestation, which, in turn, affect climate trends over many years. But, the long timeframes and vast scale create a dangerous disconnect. While 97 percent of peer-reviewed scientific research points to human activities as a primary contributor to climate change, only half of Americans see the link. Proponents of virtual reality think it could help drive home the impacts of climate change and make people feel empowered to do something about it. “When individuals feel that their behaviors directly influence the well-being of the environment, they are more likely to be concerned about and actively care for the environment,” Ahn and Bailenson wrote. Bailenson, a cognitive psychologist and founding director of Stanford’s Virtual Human Interaction Lab, sees particular value in virtual reality related to climate change because it allows for a combination of real experience with boundless possibilities: the brain treats the virtual experience as real but, at the same time, knows that anything is possible in the simulation. “One can viscerally experience disparate futures and get firsthand experience about the consequences of human behavior,” Bailenson said.

Teacher tech Researchers working on both virtual and augmented [realities]—in which mobile apps on

Courtesy EcoMOBILE Project, Harvard University

either smartphones or tablets overlay information on reality—are increasingly experimenting with these technologies as learning tools. Multiple universities, including Stanford, Harvard and MIT, are piloting the use of these augmented and virtual [realities] in middle and high schools. And museums, which enjoy more flexibility, operating outside the realm of curricula requirements and test scores, have wholeheartedly embraced the idea. Science museums and zoos on both coasts are using the technology in exhibits and deploying augmented reality apps that visitors can use on their phones or on museum-issue mobile devices to learn more about what they’re seeing. “Understanding complicated issues like climate change requires a shift in perspective in terms of how you’re willing to see the problem,” said Amy Kamarainen, co-director of Harvard’s EcoMOBILE and EcoMUVE projects. “We’re trying to do that by immersing kids in environments that have elements similar to real-world systems, but are somewhat simplified to meet kids where they are. We put them in complex worlds, but give them the tools to be able to unpack what’s happening.” EcoMUVE, a multiuser, desktop computerbased virtual environment that features a simulated pond ecosystem, was developed by Harvard University to teach students basic biological processes like photosynthesis and decomposition as well as systems thinking about

complex environmental issues. The Harvard team recently launched EcoMOBILE, a corresponding augmented reality app, which enables students to take the EcoMUVE experience with them, collect data out in the field, and “see” what’s going on below the surface and what happened in an ecosystem in the past. EcoMUVE was initially piloted in schools in Massachusetts and New York, but is now available for download by any school, and is being used across the United States and in other countries as well, including India and Mexico. EcoMOBILE is currently being piloted at schools in Massachusetts and New York. A handful of Massachusetts high schools have also piloted an MIT-developed augmented reality app called Time Lapse 2100, which requires users to set various policies that would affect the environment and then shows them what would happen if those policies were enacted. [In 2014], Bay Area schools pilot-[tested] Stanford’s Coral Reef, a virtual reality game in which participants become a piece of coral in a reef affected by ocean acidification. All three universities are also working with museums and science learning centers to deploy their technology in learning experiences. “I was initially not sold on the idea of augmented reality,” said cognitive scientist Tina Grotzer, a professor at Harvard Graduate School of Education and the co-principal investigator for both the EcoMUVE and EcoMOBILE projects.

“

When

individuals

feel that their behaviors directly influence the well-being of the environment, they are more likely to be concerned about and

actively care for the environment.

” .

MARCH/APRIL 2015

If virtual and augmented realities are to have a measurable impact on how future generations understand and approach climate change, access

across all socioeconomic classes

will be key.

26 MARCH/APRIL 2015

Grotzer spent several years as a teacher herself before heading to Harvard to research how kids learn, particularly how they learn science. Grotzer said it was the technology’s potential to drive home environmental science lessons that won her over. “With physics, you can do an experiment and kids can see instantly what you’re talking about. With environmental science, we tried to do a decomposition experiment, but you set the experiment up and then 12 weeks later, something happens. By then, the kids have completely lost interest.” That’s because it’s difficult for kids to grasp anything that they cannot immediately see, Grotzer explained. Augmented reality enables teachers to extend that vision, or what scholars call an attentional frame, and makes the unseen more tangible. For example, teachers take kids to a nearby pond and use EcoMOBILE to show them how the town dumped garbage there 60 years ago and nearly filled in what is today a pristine, natural pond. The app shows them how plants around the pond are turning sunlight into energy and reveals what microscopic pond life is doing under the water’s surface. It also walks them through the real-world collection of water samples, which it helps them to analyze. “I’ve tagged along on these field trips and have seen how the technology actually immerses them more in the surroundings, rather than distracting them,” Grotzer said. Students use smartphones to take photographs and notes, documenting what they’re seeing: the clarity of the pond water, the weather, descriptions of their samples, different species of bugs and birds. And they can learn at their own pace, too. “On a regular field trip, if a student had a question, they’d have to leave that moment that spurred the question and go ask the teacher,” Grotzer said. “The teacher would be facilitating the needs of 30 kids. This way they can find the answer themselves and stay in the moment, stay engaged with what they’re looking at.” In Stanford’s Coral Reef [app], students embody a tall piece of purple coral off the coast of Italy, near Ischia. Over the course of a 14minute lesson, they are taken through the experience of being a coral in a body of water affected by ocean acidification. At first, the surrounding ocean is filled with an abundance of sea life. Waves around the reef are simulated by floor vibrations and ocean sounds. A lab technician periodically touches the participant with a stick in synchronized motions to coincide with what he sees as a fishing net hitting the reef. Then, acidification sets in. Sea life begins to die off all around. The reef begins to lose its color, as does the piece of coral the participant has embodied.

Bailenson and his team have tested the simulation with college students and shown that it resulted in students caring more about what is happening to coral reefs. The team followed those participants over weeks, compared them with a group that had simply watched a video about how ocean acidification affects coral reefs, and found that the change in attitude catalyzed by the virtual reality experience lasted longer than any shifts stirred by the video.

Smartphones for all Whether schools opt for an augmented reality tablet app that leads students around the schoolyard pointing out, say, the biological process at work in the compost pile, or a landscape-based smartphone app (like EcoMOBILE or Time Lapse 2100) for use on a field trip, or a desktop experience (like EcoMUVE) that can be used in the school’s computer lab, they face a steep tab for both hardware and software. Hardware for virtual reality simulations remains cost prohibitive for most schools, although costs are coming down: virtual headsets, like the Oculus Rift, now cost consumers $350. A school could potentially purchase a few headsets for a multiuser virtual reality game that four students could play at a time, while the rest of the class engages with an

Photographs courtesy EcoMOBILE Project, Harvard University

Far left: A student collects water quality data on turbidity using digital probes. Below far left: A student uses a visual target to see a 3D image on a mobile device. Left: Students explore a pond ecosystem with smartphones and water measurement probes.

Go Online

Virtual Human Interaction Lab, Stanford University

http://vhil.stanford.edu

The Impact of Nature Experience on Willingness to Support Conservation

http://goo.gl/oTZhRY

EcoMUVE

http://ecomuve.gse.harvard.edu

EcoMOBILE

http://ecomobile.gse.harvard.edu

Games Learning Society

http://gameslearningsociety.org

New York Hall of Science http://nysci.org

augmented reality component on desktops nearby. Still, despite an increasing variety of options and declining prices, schools looking to put these technologies to use in the classroom face a number of challenges. If virtual and augmented [realities] are to have a measurable impact on how future generations understand and approach climate change, access across all socioeconomic classes will be key. Kamarainen said that in some higher-income school districts, students could use their own devices. In many school districts around the country, however, the majority of students do not have smartphones. Mobile phone company Kajeet has begun to address this issue by offering schools data packages that provide WiFi with schoolmanaged filtering, so they can set time limits for usage, enabling kids to take home schoolprovided tablets for only school-related work. In the schools where Kamarainen works, Harvard provides smartphones to students for use on field trips and pays for Kajeet’s WiFi and data service (two to three cents per megabyte per device). The Harvard apps work on both smartphones and tablets, so it’s feasible that any of the thousands of U.S. schools that have either purchased or been awarded tablets over the past

two years could sign up with Kajeet to enable the use of these apps on and off campus. ...

The principal’s office Even if companies like Kajeet succeed in making hardware more affordable for schools, virtual and augmented reality developers still face a long road to see their programs widely adopted in education. Logistical challenges include securing funding for pilot tests, budgeting funds to purchase new technology, training staff, and winning buy-in from parents, teachers and administrators. “There are clashes all the time between the reality of what goes on in a classroom and what researchers would like to see happen in a classroom,” said Paul Olson, an outreach specialist at the Games Learning Society, or GLS, at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, who taught seventh grade for more than three decades. He said that a lot of his time these days is spent explaining to researchers what life is like “in the trenches” and encouraging teachers to experiment with GLS games to motivate those students who “really don’t respond to a lecture or a chapter in a book, but are all over programming something.” This is where museums incorporating these technologies might fill some gaps. “A museum has the freedom to step outside the rigid MARCH/APRIL 2015

These games not only complement and improve students’ relationship with nature, but also teach them how to think systematically and to see their own roles in harming or improving their world.

28 MARCH/APRIL 2015

guidelines and requirements that schools are held to,” said Dan Wempa, vice president of external affairs for the New York Hall of Science in Queens, which sees roughly 1,200 students per day on field trips during the school year. The museum’s latest exhibit, “Connected Worlds,” created with input from Kamarainen, will immerse visitors in a digital, interactive world that shows how their actions affect the environment. In one part of the exhibit, visitors add water to the environment and a plant flourishes. In another, they add too much and cause flooding. Taken together, the exhibit puts nature into fast forward to help students see how their individual and communal actions hurt or sustain plant and animal life, clean water and fresh air.

“Students have a germ of knowing that water is important, but they say, ‘I didn’t realize that it’s THAT important, and I didn’t realize that what I do over here affects someone way over there,’ ” Wempa said.

The parent-teacher association “I’m not keen on my kids being immersed in this type of technology,” said Megy Karydes, a marketing consultant and mother of two (ages 7 and 9) in Chicago. “We very much limit our kids’ electronics exposure because I don’t want them addicted. On the other hand, I realize they need to be aware of what’s going on in the world, too. I balance it, but if I had to err on the side of caution, I’d rather we go hiking than have them staring at a screen.” Karydes’ concerns are common among parents. “There are two ways that parents tend to look at these games,” said Eric Klopfer, who directs MIT’s

The “Connected Worlds” exhibit, opening later this year at the New York Hall of Science, will feature the latest technologies to create a playful and immersive environment.

Courtesy New York Hall of Science

Scheller Teacher Education Program, developed Time Lapse 2100 and has been researching the use of augmented reality in education since 2009. “One is, ‘Great. My kid is outside, but he still has the phone in his hand,’ and the other is that the mobile device and the game are actually getting their kid outside.” Kamarainen and Grotzer have also heard parental concerns about technology interrupting kids’ experience of nature and they have worked hard to design games that they feel complement a relationship with nature rather than detract from it. The EcoMOBILE pilot has included around 1,000 students so far, and Kamarainen said they consistently talk about how the augmented reality piece helps them to see things going on in their communities that they never paid attention to before. “They say this helps open their eyes about the environment that’s around them,” Kamarainen said. “They’re more aware and conscious of it, and they’re paying closer attention to the natural world.” Ultimately, proponents say that these games not only complement and improve students’ relationship with nature, but also teach them how to think systematically and to see their own roles in harming or improving their world. “The younger kids say, ‘I get to create a world!’ ” Wempa said, “and the older kids say, ‘I like this because it felt like I was in control and, as a kid, I’m never in control of anything.’ That carries over. They understand that actions have consequences and that they can affect outcomes.” Amy Westervelt is an environmental journalist with Climate Confidential. Her work has appeared in a variety of publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Fast Company and Slate.

MARCH/APRIL 2015

Liberty Aldrich is

Courtesy Liberty Aldrich

ew York Citybased attorney

the director of Domestic Violence and Family Court Programs at the Center for Court Innovation, a public-private partnership between the New York State Unified Court System and the Fund for the City of New York. The Center’s work involves, in part, developing best practices to reduce domestic violence and sexual assault, and spreading those practices worldwide. Aldrich has worked at the Center for 14 years. She visited Kolkata and New Delhi in 2013 and interacted with students, academicians, members of nongovernmental organizations and policymakers. Excerpts from an interview.

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Liberty Aldrich discusses strategies to curb gender-based violence.

The End

Violence By CARRIE LOEWENTHAL MASSEY

What strategies can communities adopt to help gender-based violence survivors? One of the biggest obstacles in domestic violence and sexual assault cases is that when people are being abused in their intimate partner relationships, it leads to a lot of isolation. The most important strategy is to make services, whether governmental or communitybased, as accessible as possible to reduce this isolation. People need community services in the language they’re most comfortable with, so that they feel like they can speak to someone who will understand what they’re going through. Government agencies need to eliminate barriers to accessing the justice system, whether they’re economic, language or institutional barriers. Like, saying you can come get a protective order only between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. Barriers like that make things more difficult, and the last thing you want to do is make it more difficult. Access is not just about that initial point of contact either. It’s about continuing to make it a responsive system, where people feel heard and respected.

What are some of the obstacles to such collaborations? Suspicion is probably the biggest obstacle, because agencies and organizations have different missions. For example, the government is caring most about the criminal case, while a communitybased organization may be most concerned with where survivors are going to live. These entities will always have different missions. However, having different missions doesn’t mean they can’t have overlapping goals on which they can work together.

What role can community and nonprofit organizations play in reducing gender-based violence? The first big lesson we’ve learned is that community service providers and government and criminal justice agencies all have to partner to make meaningful change. None of them can do it alone. It’s easy to say, but hard to do.

How can they overcome the barriers to working together? I think, the first step is recognizing there’s a difference in goals and saying, “That’s fine.” Then, we can look at how the criminal justice system can be responsive to both the victim’s needs and the state’s goal. Recognizing these differences helps us move forward.

SOHINI DAS

What did you learn on your trip to India? I was lucky to visit New Delhi and Kolkata. I’d say, the thing that struck me most, and has stuck with me, was how much energy there was coming from young people around the issue of sexual assault. There seems to be a lot of

community organizing around issues of gender-based violence, and I took back with me some great ideas about talking to men about violence, as opposed to keeping it a women’s issue. In India, I saw that a lot of young men were active in the movement to change the culture around gender-based violence. I was also impressed with India’s incredible diversity and the way folks were able to work inclusively across all these different communities. Are there any best practices in the United States that you think could be applied to stop gender-based violence in India? I do think the federal government’s efforts here in the U.S. to really invest in services for victims have had a huge impact. In other words, it’s not just legislation criminalizing behavior, but it’s funding support services for victims that, I think, has made the primary difference. We have had about a 50 percent reduction in gender-based violence in the U.S. since the Violence Against Women Act in 1994 and, I think, it’s because of the sustained investment in services for survivors. We still have a long way to go and numbers are always complicated, but we’ve had some really dramatic reductions, especially in domestic violence homicides. And that’s a start.

www.courtinnovation.org

Liberty Aldrich

http://goo.gl/AOe0ii

Violence Against Women Act, 1994 http://goo.gl/VYuvRn

“

People need community services in the language they’re most comfortable with, so that they feel like they can speak to someone who will understand what they’re going through.

Carrie Loewenthal Massey is a New York City-based freelance writer.

To share articles go to http://span.state.gov MARCH/APRIL 2015 31

GENDER VIOLENCE

How can we enhance the accountability of offenders? The primary focus of our work around offender accountability is conveying a unified message that violence is unacceptable. We are really looking for culture change on many levels, in everything from sending consistent anti-violence messages from governments, faithbased organizations, community groups and workplaces, to delivering more meaningful, enforceable sentences in the criminal context.

Center for Court Innovation

Go Online

Above: Liberty Aldrich conducts a workshop on combating gender-based violence for nongovernmental organizations in Kolkata.

Real

Robots By LAUREN MONSEN

Get

n science fiction, robots are sometimes indistinguishable from people. However, until recently, the robots used by industry, the military and law enforcement looked like machines and were designed to complete highly specific, mechanical tasks. Enter researchers of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, who are creating robots with personalities. Valerie, Tank, Athina and Victor are among the world’s first storytelling robots. They are the result of an interdisciplinary project between the university’s School of Drama and its Robotics Institute in the School of Computer Science. Carnegie Mellon’s robotics program is considered among the best in the United States. The project grew out of conversations about how technology affects people’s day-to-day lives. Intrigued by the possibilities of marrying art to technology, professors Anne Mundell and Reid Simmons came up with the idea of “social robots,” which would converse while performing tasks. Mundell works with drama students to create each robot’s persona and Simmons helps robotics students develop the software to make the robots interact with humans. The robots provide information, like directions and weather reports, but their quirky personalities encourage people to spend longer periods of time interacting with them. That is a breakthrough. As robots assume a greater role in healthcare, assisting the elderly with their medications, for example, it will be important for them to be approachable.

32 MARCH/APRIL 2015

The students’ first collaboration produced Valerie in 2004, a “roboceptionist,” who is now used for classroom demos. Initially installed in the computer science building, Valerie answered visitors’ and callers’ questions while gossiping and, at times, complaining about her mother’s attempts to run her love life. Valerie’s successor, Tank, took over as roboceptionist in 2005, “freeing Valerie to pursue her singing vocation,” says Mundell. Tank, conceived as a rugged military veteran, has enjoyed a longer tenure as department roboceptionist. He has his own unique personality. For instance, he gets cranky if visitors are rude to him. Tank will eventually be replaced by Miranda, who is in the works. Victor has the persona of an adolescent prodigy, attending the university on a Scrabble scholarship. He has been designed to play against human opponents and talks like a moody teenager. Installed in a student lounge, he taunts students by citing things that robots can do better than humans. Athina is a talkative and lively chatbot, part of a permanent collection called “Roboworld” at the Carnegie Science Center. The students developed the serialized stories told by these robots. Visitors type questions using a keyboard and the robots respond with computer-generated speech. “As you interact with the robots, their stories evolve. It’s like a running soap opera,” says Mundell. The robots have facial expres-

Photographs courtesy Carnegie Mellon University Robotics Institute

The social robots created by Carnegie Mellon University researchers can gossip, get cranky and even talk back to students.

sions, courtesy the software devised by Simmons, and they tilt their heads and move their eyes. They are equipped with motion sensors that detect where people are. The collaborators have learned from successive creations; newer robots interact more naturally. Victor has “an emotional response spectrum, so he can respond appropriately when things happen during the course of a Scrabble game,” says Mundell. For her, social robots, despite their real-world applications, are about “storytelling in a new format.” Lauren Monsen is a staff writer with the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of International Information Programs.

Robots?

An interview with Matthew T. Mason, professor at the Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University.

Above: Carnegie Mellon University researchers Greg Armstrong, Eleanor Avrunin and Heather Knight play a game of Scrabble with Victor. Above left: Valerie. Left: Grace, Carnegie Mellon University’s social robot that successfully completed the American Association for Artificial Intelligence’s annual Robot Challenge in 2002. Below left: Athina. Below: Students converse with Tank.

Science fiction makes us believe that once robots reach comparable intelligence to humans, they could rise up. Are they coming to get us? Not in the near future; maybe 500 years from now. I wish we’d been so successful in researching artificial intelligence and developing robots that it was a realistic fear.

robots use their “hands.” Today, we have robots with simple grippers that are more like a pair of tongs. Some people are designing better “hands,” similar to humans’. But, even if they succeed, I don’t think it will solve the problem. A human being with a pair of chopsticks will still be vastly more capable than a robot dealing with a novel situation, at least in the near future.

What can today’s robots do or not do? All things that are easy for us are hard for robots and all things that are hard for us are easy for robots. The intellectual challenges related to the chess game were addressed quite successfully by artificial intelligence— computers won against human competitors. Yet, if you want a robot to move chess pieces on the board, it’s tough. Also, look at how humans and robots deal with uncertainty. Humans use their senses and also commonsense physics. When they encounter obstacles, they can do a quick analysis to solve the problem. Robots have a hard time dealing with such obstacles.

Mobile phones are changing our lives. Similarly, will robots affect us more radically? Robots have been changing our lives, but not our minds. Often, we see an automated device as too simple to call it a robot. I’m excited about applications of robots in education. At Carnegie Mellon University, we have an automated tutor, which listens to children read, corrects their mistakes, and guides and encourages them. Space exploration is changing. Our motion-planning software was used in the NASA rovers, which have explored Mars. The driverless car, medical robots and technologies that can watch and pay intelligent attention to all the space around us and inside our bodies will cause amazing changes in our lives.

What are some of the challenges in making robots more versatile? Generally, researchers are looking at different mechanisms, structures and materials that can advance robotics. They work on controls, perception, intelligence and machine learning. I work on manipulation, which involves motion planning and control, including how

Courtesy Matthew T. Mason

Who’s Afraid of

Do robots themselves select inductees to the Robot Hall of Fame at Carnegie Mellon University? That would take away all the fun from being a judge...and would scare me a bit! —L.M.

The Robotics Institute

https://www.ri.cmu.edu

School of Drama

http://drama.cmu.edu

Roboceptionist project

Matthew T. Mason

http://goo.gl/UNc2KT

Robot Hall of Fame

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TECHNOLOGY

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http://roboceptionist.org

public policy and international affairs The study of

helps students develop deep analytical skills on a range of policy issues.

From

Skills Careers to

By WESLEY TETER and DON MARTIN

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n today’s world of rapid urbanization, we are facing significant social and environmental challenges. Thus, a new generation of “practical visionaries” is needed to help develop more inclusive and sustainable communities. Public policy is at the intersection of these global issues. It is also one of the most interdisciplinary fields, which includes economics, history, law, philosophy, psychology and sociology. Prospective students have a wide variety of choices regarding which degree programs, specializations and universities would best help them meet their career goals. What are the major themes and emerging opportunities in public policy and international affairs? What are the related professional and academic career tracks?

EDUCATION

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Photographs ÂŠ Getty Images

projects and research. When deciding what degree to pursue, prospective students should consider what motivates them and their long-term career interests. Do you want to work at a university or at a think tank? Do you want to work as a diplomat or as a civil servant? Would you prefer to work as an analyst for a political party or for the private sector? While it helps to remain open-minded, the answers to these questions can help guide you toward the right degree program and career track.

Careers in research and academia

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The study of public policy develops both general and technical skills applicable to a wide range of careers. For example, the ability to define a problem and conduct research may be equally useful whether working as a project manager, a corporate recruiter or a freelance journalist. Students may take courses in economics, statistics and political science in order to strengthen their analytical skills and substantive knowledge. In the process, students learn to think critically, collaborate in diverse teams and express themselves clearly and concisely. The underlying goal is to develop a deep appreciation for social and environmental justice across all aspects of public policy and planning. This includes developing an understanding of the dynamics of cities and regions, integrating theories and practices of planning and policymaking, exploring creative ways to bridge social and sustainable development, and engaging in community-based

Association of Professional Schools of International Affairs www.apsia.org/

Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management http://goo.gl/SNtwnY

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If prospective students want to pursue a career in research and teaching, they should look for Ph.D. programs in public policy or political science departments, which emphasize theory and research methods. Doctoral students are trained to conduct research and, increasingly, to be effective teachers in the classroom. On an average, it takes more than six years for students to complete their doctoral degrees in the United States. Additionally, opportunities for dual degrees are widespread. For example, specializations may include nutrition and food policy, international affairs, environmental engineering, law, and business management. Across the subfields, students explore policy implications related to economics and finance, gender, health, human rights and national security, among others. The end result is that graduates are trained to analyze a range of policy issues from diverse perspectives.

Specializations in Public Policy and International Affairs Economic development: The development of economic wealth of countries or regions for the well-being of their inhabitants. Environmental policy and management: The study of laws, regulations and other policy issues related to the environment and sustainability. These issues include air and water pollution, natural resource protection, and energy and toxic regulation. Health policy and social welfare: A systematic evaluation of alternative means of achieving social goals. A focus on the guidelines for changing, maintaining or

When deciding what degree to pursue, prospective students should consider what motivates them and their longterm career interests.

creating living conditions conducive to human welfare. International development: A multidisciplinary study that aims to impart a broader understanding of economic, political and social changes in the developing world, with the goal of alleviating poverty and reducing inequality. Public finance: Relates to economics, with a focus on budgeting the revenues and expenditures of public sector entities. Public and nonprofit management: Explores the role of government and nonprofit organizations in developing,

Professional career tracks For specialized professional training—as opposed to an academic research focus— students are advised to look at master’s programs on international affairs or public policy and public administration. These interdisciplinary programs train students for careers in international politics and national or local government. Schools of international affairs prepare students for careers in diplomacy and related areas of foreign affairs, though many graduates also pursue work in the private and nonprofit sectors. The curricula of these schools focus on international relations theory and practice, economics, diplomacy, security studies, political economy and foreign languages. Applicants should have a strong undergraduate academic background; excellent scores in tests like GRE, TOEFL iBT or IELTS; insightful letters of recommendation; and a

implementing and evaluating policy. Criminal justice policy and management: An interdisciplinary study where students are introduced to the academic disciplines needed to understand crime and the administration of criminal justice. Urban planning and management: A multidisciplinary study that looks at how neighborhoods, cities and regions develop. Planners hope to use their skills to respond to changing social, economic and cultural conditions. —W.T. and D.M. Sources: Institute of International Education and EducationUSA Connections (January, 2009)

clear statement of purpose that outlines the applicants’ motivations, interests and goals. Admissions committees also value relevant internship or volunteer experience; travel, study or employment at an international organization; and undergraduate research on an international theme. The result of this pursuit being, in the words of President John F. Kennedy, “…the unequaled satisfaction of knowing that your character and talent are contributing to the direction and success of this free society.” Wesley Teter is a graduate of Tufts University, Department of Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning, and former regional director of EducationUSA in India and Central Asia, supported by the U.S. Department of State. Don Martin is a former admissions dean at Columbia, University of Chicago, and Northwestern, and author of “Road Map for Graduate Study.”

MARCH/APRIL 2015

Majestic Heights By STEVE FOX

California’s Redwood Parks are home to some of the world’s tallest and oldest trees.

38 MARCH/APRIL 2015

TRAVEL

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40 MARCH/APRIL 2015

STEVE DUNLEAVY/Courtesy Flickr

ANNE-C CLAUDE FAILLÉTAZ/Courtesy Flickr

MIGUEL VIEIRA/Courtesy Flickr

Courtesy U.S. National Park Service

JAN KRONSELL/Courtesy Wikipedia

Top: The Shrine DriveThru Tree on the Avenue of the Giants in Humboldt County. Left, far left, below far left and below left: Ancient towering trees in the Redwood Parks. Right: Winter storms deposit snow on redwoods along Bald Hills Road, inside the Redwood Parks.

Courtesy U.S. National Park Service

Below right: Junior rangers at the Redwood Parks.

PRAYINGMOTHER/Courtesy Flickr

Above left: Cow parsnip flowers in bloom along the mouth of Damnation Creek, which borders the Redwood Parks.

ucked in the northwestern corner of California, the Redwood National and State Parks are home to some of the tallest trees on Earth as well as grassland prairies, wild rivers and nearly 64 kilometers of undeveloped coastline. The stately redwoods, reaching up to 115 meters—higher than the Statue of Liberty—and measuring up to eight meters in diameter, can be more than 2,000 years old. They have a powerful effect on visitors. “I’ve seen people weep and I’ve seen people sing. Sometimes they are just speechless,” says Richard Stenger, a park ranger for 14 years, who is now media and marketing manager at the Humboldt County Convention and Visitors Bureau. “It’s an overwhelming experience. These trees resemble the original forests of the planet. They date back to the dinosaurs, but they are little changed because they are so successful in their adaptations.” Capturing the magnitude of the redwoods is difficult. However, according to National Public Radio, a professor at The Evergreen State College in Washington calculated that if a particularly massive specimen is sawed into boards one foot wide, 12 feet long and one inch thick, the resulting line of planks laid end to end would stretch more than 161 kilometers and could build 120 average-sized houses. Statistics aside, visitors really connect with the redwoods. “I think, people make redwoods personal because of what they mean,” says Michael Glore, supervisory park ranger at the Redwood Parks. “We come to these places and we see these trees that have survived millennia of storms and fires, and they’re still standing. We can see their scars, and each one is a little different. They’re individuals, just like people, and when we see them and stand below them, I think, we’re tapping into something very deep in our existence as human beings. It can be life-changing.” The four Redwood National and State Parks have a unique ecosystem that preserves a number of threatened animal species. Although the

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Courtesy U.S. National Park Service

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Monarch, Hyperion and Iluvatar, but the park rangers generally do not divulge the exact locations of these old giants, preferring that they remain undisturbed. Visitors who fly into San Francisco and drive north on scenic Highway 101 will usually reach the Redwood Parks in a little over four hours, but there are also flights to closer regional airports. The area is rainy and cool throughout the year, with mid-autumn offering the most sunshine. Lodging choices include campgrounds, cabins that sleep six for about $200 a night, small bed-and-breakfast inns, national motel chains and old hotels dating to the 1800’s. Four days would be enough for visitors to see most of the area’s attractions, with a car recommended, as there is little public transportation.

Above: A park ranger speaks with visitors near Tall Trees Grove. Above left: About a million people visit the Redwood Parks every year.

Steve Fox is a freelance writer, former newspaper publisher and reporter based in Ventura, California.

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redwoods are the main attraction, visitors to the area will find themselves in a natural paradise with an unspoiled, rugged stretch of coastline so little visited that it’s sometimes called “The Lost Coast.” In addition to ranger-led tours and programs, visitors can enjoy fishing, kayaking, biking, rafting, backpacking, birding, beachcombing, camping and more. The surrounding area is dotted with picturesque arming towns and fishing villages, restaurants featuring locally-grown ingredients, charming hotels, bed-and-breakfast inns, wine and craft beer bars, and a variety of historical attractions. Redwood Parks represent the victory of environmentalists over the timber industry, which values redwood for its beauty, resistance to rot and overall durability. Harvesting of the coastal redwoods, which began in the 1850’s, severely depleted the old-growth forests. In the 1920’s, California established three state parks—Jedediah Smith Redwoods State Park, Del Norte Coast Redwoods State Park and Prairie Creek Redwoods State Park—with land purchased by preservationists. In 1968, with almost 90 percent of the original redwoods already gone, the U.S. government established the Redwood National Park, which was later expanded. In 1994, the National Park Service and the California Department of Parks and Recreation agreed to jointly manage the four parks. Today, the 133,000-acre Redwood Parks are a World Heritage Site and part of the California Coast Range Biosphere Reserve. These designations acknowledge that the parks’ natural resources are irreplaceable. About a million people visit the Redwood Parks and the adjacent area every year, says Glore. Many people take the 50-kilometer, tree-lined drive known as the “Avenue of the Giants” and some even pay $8 toll fees to drive their cars through tunnels carved into huge redwoods on privately-owned land. Some of the parks’ tallest trees have names, like Lost

Redwood National and State Parks http://www.nps.gov/redw/index.htm

Redwood Parks: World Heritage Site http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/134

Humboldt County Convention and Visitors Bureau http://redwoods.info/

.S. Embassy’s Minister Counselor for Public Affairs Walter Douglas (below left), with Theja Meru, an alumnus of the U.S. State Department’s International Visitor Leadership Program, in Kohima. Douglas and Greg Pardo, deputy director of the Kolkata American Center, visited Nagaland in February. They interacted with students, academicians, civil society representatives and alumni of U.S. State Department-sponsored exchange programs. They also visited the Kohima War Cemetery, the burial ground of more than 1,400 World War II soldiers, and the World War II museum at Kisama Heritage Village, near Kohima. http://kolkata.usconsulate.gov/

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RAKESH MALHOTRA

mbassador Richard R. Verma and his wife, Pinky Verma, participated in the Walk for Life to create awareness about cancer. Former U.S. Ambassador David Mulford and his wife, Jeannie Mulford, also took part in the event. Walk for Life is an initiative of New Delhi-based CanSupport, which provides home care and palliative care to cancer patients. http://newdelhi.usembassy.gov

GRAPHICK STILLS

ERICA SUDIPTA BASU

he U.S. Consulate General Chennai, in collaboration with Samhita Social Ventures, organized TechCamp Chennai in February. It was attended by 85 social sector leaders, graduate students and technology trainers. The TechCamp provided them resources and assistance to improve their organizations’ digital literacy and capacity. Consul General Phillip Min inaugurated the event with an inspirational talk about TechCamps and highlighted the story of a previous TechCamp Bengaluru participant who was invited to the United Nations to talk about a project inspired, in part, by his TechCamp experience. http://chennai.usconsulate.gov/techcamp.html

Registered under RNI-6586/60

Above: Ambassador Richard R. Verma with U.S. and Indian Special Forces at Aero India 2015 in Bengaluru.

Right: Two Kadena F-15 Eagle fighter jets from the 44th Fighter Squadron on display at Aero India 2015.

U.S. Air Force photograph by Airman 1st Class Stephen G. Eigel

Courtesy U.S. Consulate General Chennai