ENVIRONMENT SAF

all aviation fuels produced without the use of fossil-energy sources) are:

• SAF can be readily blended with normal jet fuel and potentially fully replace it.

• It generates up to 80 per cent less CO2 during its lifecycle.

• SAF also emits much less particulate matter and sulphur compounds that otherwise contribute to contrail formation and other climate change impacts.

• It has a higher energy density than normal jet fuel.

• Neither aircraft nor airports need to be redesigned.

• SAF can help farmers and the community by using waste from farms and landfills to produce fuel.

On the other hand SAF has its share of critics who cite its many disadvantages:

• SAF can be up to five times as costly as normal fuel.

• Since it releases CO2 into the atmosphere, like fossil fuel, it still contributes significantly to climate change.

• With many industries scrambling to obtain the same limited feedstocks, the aviation industry’s frenzied pursuit of SAF may deprive those more in need.

• Feedstock from food fats will be quickly exhausted, raising food prices and, threatening forests and farmland. For instance, there are growing suspicions that countries like China and Malaysia are passing off virgin palm oil – grown on plantations that contribute to tropical deforestation – as “used cooking oil” for SAF production.

Production Pains

In September 2021, the US government released a comprehensive strategy to accelerate the domestic production of SAF, initially to deliver 3 billion gallons per year by 2030 and 35 billion gallons by 2050. Its “Flight Plan for Sustainable Aviation Fuel” roadmap sets out a framework for the “SAF Grand Challenge”, a collaboration between multiple government agencies and the aviation industry to expedite decarbonisation of America’s aviation industry. The roadmap estimates a 600-fold increase in SAF production by 2030 compared to 2021, with a need for more than 400 bio-refineries and 1 billion tonnes of biomass or gaseous CO2 feedstock to meet 2050’s goal.

At present several airlines are racing to secure access to SAF to meet their own needs but also as a hedge against supply mandates in Europe and many other countries expected from 2025 onwards. However, the US assessment gives an idea of the scale of the problem ahead. Annual global SAF production that was just 538 million litres in 2022 needs to be boosted to 449 billion litres by 2050 (see graphic) in order to meet IATA’s net zero goal. This could perhaps be likened to a novice mountaineer still at base camp but aspiring to scale Mount Everest. It is difficult to imagine when and where the thousands of bio-refineries, renewable power plants and green hydrogen, carbon capture and other SAF facilities will be established, or who will make the mammoth investments required.

INDIA’S INITIATIVE

In May 2023, Hardeep Singh Puri, Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, said that India plans to mandate the use of one per cent SAF for domestic airlines by 2025. The reason for this rather modest blending target is the limited availability of SAF in the country.

However, with the global demand for SAF likely to skyrocket in the next few years India too can make an impact in the market. Municipal solid waste as feedstock is plentiful and the country currently has no environmentally friendly way of

EXPECTED SAF REQUIRED FOR NET ZERO BY 2050 (BILLION LITRES)

dealing with it. Similarly agro and forestry waste is abundant provided a system can be worked out to collect and use it productively. The government needs to establish a proper roadmap and economic incentives for SAF production so as to cash in on this golden opportunity to produce and perhaps export SAF. It would also help India meet its commitment of net zero carbon emissions by 2070.

Neat And Attractive

SAF cannot be seen as an instant route to aviation’s environmental sustainability. One crucial requirement for its use to spread globally is the development of suitable standards to allow any type of SAF to be used interchangeably on any commercial aircraft anywhere in the world – much like normal jet fuel at present.

Linked with this is the issue of permitting the use of 100 per cent or “neat” SAF – an essential if the industry is to meet its long-term climate goals. Both Airbus and Boeing are in the process of developing aircraft technologically compatible with 100 per cent SAF. Numerous demonstration flights have been conducted to show that burning “neat” SAF is possible without compromising safety.

However, airlines that typically operate on very low margins are unlikely to find SAF appealing unless costs drop. Government intervention is essential to make SAF more attractive. Otherwise, there is a significant risk that global SAF production will fall short of the requirement. PtL SAF especially needs to be encouraged despite its high cost, since it is perhaps the most environmentally sustainable in the long run. Some analysts believe that SAF is unlikely ever to equal the price of jet fuel, which means increased fares are inevitable. This is not a prospect that will appeal either to the airline industry or to passengers but it may have to be faced sooner rather than later if the global transition to SAF is to gain momentum. SP