Travellers to Reach 4 Billion in 2024 – IATA

Excluding the deeper impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the passenger number is expected to exceed the pre-COVID-19 levels in the next two years

BY AYUSHEE CHAUDHARY

Two years ago, the novel coronavirus took over the entire world and was declared as a pandemic. The travel landscape has not been the same ever since. Multiple waves of the virus taking over the world, various travel restrictions, and additional hassles changed the passengers’ behaviours, travel frequency, and just how the world moves. However, the restrictions are gradually easing, and passengers are starting to move again following the successful vaccination drives and the lowered rate of the disease’s spread.

Noting this rising sun over the travel industry, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) stated that the passenger number is expected to exceed the pre-COVID-19 levels by 2024. IATA expects overall traveller numbers to reach 4.0 billion in 2024 (counting multi-sector connecting trips as one passenger). According to IATA’s long-term forecast, in 2021, overall traveller numbers were 47 per cent of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83 per cent in 2022, 94 per cent in 2023, 103 per cent in 2024 and 111 per cent in 2025. Additionally international traveller numbers in 2021 were 27 per cent of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69 per cent in 2022,

82 per cent in 2023, 92 per cent in 2024 and 101 per cent in 2025. The expectations for the shape of the near-term recovery have somewhat shifted, given the evolution of government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets. Yet, the overall picture presented in the February update to the forecast, remains unchanged from what was expected in November, prior to the Omicron variant.

Towards the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, the Omicron variant made headlines but the impact was not felt in equal severity as it was during the Delta variant. IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, said, “The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic”.

IATA has been constantly emphasising on the following: y The removal of all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO (World Health Organisation)-approved vaccine.

“People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic,” said IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh

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