Can SAF Make Aviation Sustainable?

IATA’s pledge of net zero by 2050 demonstrates the industry’s genuine commitment to reducing carbon emissions and making aviation more environmentally friendly. And, more than anything else, it is banking on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to succeed.

BY JOSEPH NORONHA

There is an overwhelming scientific consensus that human-induced global warming is leading to climate change. What is more, some catastrophic signs of this unwelcome phenomenon, like extreme weather events, are already here. The focus of international efforts now is on reducing the risk of further deterioration so that the most harmful effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be averted or at least delayed.

Aviation is not a significant source of carbon, producing only around 2.5 per cent of global emissions. However, there are three reasons why it is a growing cause for concern. First, since most emissions are at high altitudes, where contrails often form, aviation’s climate-change impact could be two to four times larger than its GHG percentage share would indicate. Second, with the aviation industry expected to skyrocket to around 10 billion passengers by 2050, fuel consumption will correspondingly balloon. This makes aviation one of the fastest growing sources of emissions and its share of global emissions could triple by 2050. Third, aviation’s emissions are among the toughest to tackle. Other major polluters like the power and surface transport sectors are steadily switching to alternative technologies such as nuclear, solar and wind power. And sales of electric cars and other electric vehicles are soaring. However, no such solution is in sight for aviation. Jet fuel packs a massive punch for its weight and is very hard to replace.

The airline industry is taking its responsibility to reduce GHG emissions seriously. In October 2021, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) pledged that, by 2050, its global carbon emissions would reach “net zero”. Net zero emissions means that the amount of GHG released into the atmosphere is no more than the amount that is being removed, so that there is no net increase in the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. The IATA pledge aligns with the Paris agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C. IATA’s is an extremely ambitious commitment, and one in which Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) could contribute around 65 per cent of the necessary reduction in emissions. The rest would come through new technologies (electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft), more efficient infrastructure/operations and carbon offsetting/carbon capture techniques (see chart).

In October 2022, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) also pledged to support an “aspirational” net zero aviation goal by 2050. While the deal is not legally binding, it was at least

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