BRACKET BUSTERS Inevitably, a team you’ve never watched this season will shock the sports world and introduce itself with an upset win or two in the Big Dance. Which Cinderella teams could blow up your bracket and win the hearts of America in 2021? Or more importantly provide us with some betting value in the early rounds.
SAN DIEGO STATE (NO. 6 SEED, MIDWEST REGION) The Aztecs might not be a national title contender like they were before the pandemic ended their season in 2019–20, but San Diego State is as dangerous as any mid-major in the country right now. By the time they tip off in Indianapolis, Brian Dutcher’s team will not have lost in over two months. The Aztecs also have experience beating high-major teams, beating both UCLA and Arizona State comfortably in non conference games earlier this season. SDSU is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, led by 47% shooter Jordan Schakel on the wing. Add in a wellschooled defense and lots of experience, and the Aztecs have all the makings of a team that can win multiple games. The first-round matchup against Syracuse is very appealing, and SDSU’s potential second-round matchup would be against a West Virginia team that has struggled of late.
ST. BON AVENTURE (NO. 9 SEED, EAST REGION) Just 25 teams in the country rank in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. One of those 25 is St. Bonaventure, the Atlantic 10 regular-season and tournament champion that will be an absolute handful in the East Region. Mark Schmidt’s team starts five juniors who rarely leave the floor—bench minutes account for just 10% of the Bonnies’ minutes, the lowest mark in the country. But those five juniors are terrific: Kyle Lofton is as steady as they come at the point, Osun Osunniyi is one of the best rim-protecting bigs in the land, Dominick Welch and Jaren Holmes are big-time scorers and Jalen Adaway is an elite glue guy. The Bonnies are tough, incredibly well-coached and can beat you in so many ways. Beating Michigan in a potential second-round matchup will be an incredible challenge, but with Isaiah Livers out, the Bonnies have a real chance for a Cinderella run.
LOYOL A CHICAGO (NO. 8 SEED, MIDWEST REGION) A Final Four run like what the Ramblers went on in 2018 requires a little bit of luck, but this year’s Loyola team is even better than the one that became national darlings three years ago. The Ramblers are the No. 9 team in America per KenPom, significantly better than the 2018 team that finished at No. 31. They are keyed by one of the nation’s best defenses, a group that concedes fewer points per game than anyone in the country and ranks second in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. On offense, everything runs through senior big man Cameron Krutwig. Krutwig is college basketball’s Nikola Joki, an elite passer who makes the Ramblers go in the halfcourt. He’s surrounded with high-level shooters and ball handlers who play smart and unselfish basketball. The challenge: Loyola was dealt a brutal draw. An opening-round matchup against a hot Georgia Tech team is far from a cake walk, and a win there sets the Ramblers up against an Illinois team that can overwhelm them athletically at every position.
OHIO (NO. 13 SEED, WEST REGION) Since 1992, just three college basketball players have averaged at least 16 points, six rebounds and seven assists per game: Jason Kidd, Denzel Valentine and Jason Preston. Preston led the way for a Bobcats team that surged through the MAC tournament as a No. 5 seed to reach the NCAA tournament for the first time since the program went all the way to the Sweet 16 in 2012. He’s the type of player that can single-handedly will a team to an upset, and he nearly did so in November when he posted 31 points and eight assists in a 77–75 loss at Illinois. The Bobcats are explosive on offense and are battle-tested from playing in a tough MAC. Add in the fact that first-round foe Virginia will be in quarantine until Thursday ahead of a Saturday game, and the Bobcats feel like a great bet to win at least one game in the Dance.
WINTHROP (NO. 12 SEED, SOUTH REGION) The 23–1 Eagles absolutely cruised through the Big South this season, winning 13 conference games by 10 points or more and winning their three conference tournament games by an average of 25.7 points. Pat Kelsey’s club will take on Villanova, a banged-up
