Key insights

Introduction

Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT) pose significant challenges for the security environment in Africa and the Middle East. In the last year alone, we have seen attacks using UAVs in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and the UAE; cyberattacks and ransomware attacks such as the Ragnar locker malware, and an ongoing proliferation of lethal technologies into the hands of non-state armed groups and state actors1. Since 2016, NATO has committed itself to better understand these technologies, to assess their military applicability and to address them through innovative solutions and in collaboration with key stakeholders. To support this commitment, on 8 October 2020, NATO Allied Command Transformation and NATO Strategic Direction South Hub co-organized a workshop on EDT in the Middle East and Africa. The goal was to understand how EDT shape the security environment, and hence the security agenda, for the South.

The workshop was conducted as a webinar, with two panel discussions. Each included one expert from Africa and one from the Middle East, with the first panel focusing on data (to include block chain, disinformation and artificial intelligence) and on the educational and employment impacts of EDT, while the second explored autonomy, space and cyber, and examined the broader implications of EDT for economic and social development, and for security throughout Africa and the Middle East. Workshop participants in the workshop generated additional insights beyond those offered by panellists.

The webinar was conducted under the Chatham House Rule. This paper summarizes, without direct attribution to particular speakers, some of the insights generated during the webinar, and draws out key implications arising for NATO. Although those questions were reasonably posed back in 2010, the last few years illustrate some important initiatives that make peace and stability in the south a priority. It is true that since 1994, the north of Africa has been part of NATO’s concerns through the Mediterranean Dialogue, coordinating with Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia to contribute to regionalsecurity and stability. Also, the Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan (since 2015), the Sea Guardian in the Mediterranean (since 2016) and the NATO Mission Iraq (since 2018) clearly illustrate the commitment to training and capacity-building in outer areas in the south, but the alliance is still short on prioritising Africa as part of a more detailed southern initiative.

Key insights

Technological innovation, digital transformation, renewable energy transition and a massive explosion in electronic connectivity over the past decade have brought significant change—for good or ill—in the human condition over an extraordinarily short period.

Workshop participants noted that rapid, far-reaching technological change has been even more transformative (hence also more disruptive) for low- and middle-income countries in the global South than for developed nations in Europe and North America. Societies across Africa and the Middle East have leap-frogged legacy technologies associated with twentieth-century industrialization, jumping straight to distributed, cyber-enabled, internet-driven technologies2. These are enabled by handheld platforms such as smartphones and tablets, constant connectivity to Wi-Fi or cell phone networks, access to fiber-optic and satellite communications, and space-based systems such as GPS. At the same time, the technological literacy level of populations in the global South has skyrocketed, in line with trends in urbanization, health and economic development across key regions3 .

While the benefits of technological transformation are obvious—from cell phone banking and payment systems, to decentralized consumer credit, to a vibrant start-up culture of entrepreneurship that is lifting communities out of poverty and connecting them to the wider world—panellists noted that its risks are also significant. They include a massively expanded attack surface for cyber-threats from nonstate actors or cyberwarfare by state adversaries, along with increased risk of disinformation, fake news and political manipulation by hostile actors. The emerging Internet of Things (IoT) and the proliferation of “smart” urban and industrial infrastructure controlled by microprocessors and SCADA systems creates both opportunities and threats for connected cities and populations4. Meanwhile, autonomous systems (including remotely-piloted drones, tele-operated weapons and fully autonomous air, land and maritime systems) have become increasingly accessible to both states and non-state armed groups, even as advanced manufacturing capabilities enable a democratization of lethal technology beyond the reach of nation-states. In the near future, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), along with advances in genomic editing, human performance enhancement, crypto-currencies, robotics and space systems, will create further double-edged effects, posing significant risks and challenges even as they offer unique opportunities.

Panellists noted that African and Middle Eastern societies risk becoming “two-speed” societies where access to jobs and opportunity is tied to technological literacy, gained through technical education and electronic connectivity available only to a minority of mostly urban and male populations5. In addition to economic marginalization and political exclusion, rural populations may find themselves victims of a technology and connectivity gap. Educational systems designed for an earlier era may not be producing graduates with appropriate skills and knowledge for the modern, technology-centric economy, leading to a workforce mismatch that could increase unemployment and inequality, creating tensions and security challenges for some countries, especially those experiencing a youth bulge6 .

Experts also noted that, since electronic connectivity tends to be better in urban than in rural areas, cities that are already experiencing overstretch as a result of rapid unplanned growth may experience increased pressure from rural-to-urban migration, with newcomers housed in informal settlements on the urban fringes. Energy, food and—most importantly—water shortages are likely to increase the risk of violent unrest7 .

Several speakers emphasized the need to understand EDT within a broader framework of African and Middle Eastern economic and social development. An African panellist noted that in Morocco, which

representative of North Africa, there has been a huge increase in mobile connectivity, with more than half the population now using social media. This creates a massive attack surface for cyber-theft and intrusion, but neither citizens nor businesses are fully prepared for this risk, with 60% of cyber-cafes, still widely used across the region, infected by malware. She noted the mismatch between education systems and job market needs across the region, and the role of youth as a key stakeholder, but one whose voice is often ignored in policy discussions. She noted the role of AI as a solution for employment challenges, and as a means of addressing data inequality between men/women and urban/rural populations.

A panellist from the Middle East focused on disinformation in societies experiencing rapid EDT growth, noting that disinformation campaigns are tools to further strategic objectives for hostile actors, so that disinformation is not a technical problem but a strategic one. In a situation of polarized, fragile interstate relations, Middle Eastern populations are confronted with a legacy/traditional media ecosystem that lacks integrity and credibility among local audiences. As a consequence, he noted, audiences are increasingly turning to more disinformation-vulnerable channels such as the internet and social media. As a result, and of concern to NATO, anti-western narratives appear to be gaining over western-friendly narratives and media channels in the region. State and non-state actors are constructing “internet assault forces” (in parallel to previously-existing “electronic armies”) as a means to influence public opinion8. State actors are using EDT to help them behave in ambiguous or deniable ways. For example, he noted, the Russian Federation officially supports the Syrian Arab Republic of Bashar al-Assad, yet the Internet Research Agency (an ambiguous actor in cyberspace that has been accused of interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, is controlled by a Russian oligarch close to the Kremlin, and propagates messages that support Russian objectives but is not formally part of the Russian state) has been sponsoring “political engineering” efforts to undermine Assad’s independence and force him to structure his cabinet in line with Moscow’s goals 9 . The same organization has also allegedly been active in Africa10 .

In this sense, panellists noted, EDT allow hostile state actors to employ cyber-militias or cyber-proxies as adjuncts to traditional diplomatic and military pressure in a manner reminiscent of what Communist China’s Three Warfares doctrine describes as “public opinion warfare.”11 The manipulation of public perception via fake news and social media likewise links online narrative manipulation and physical demonstrations/protests, enabling hostile actors to generate real-world disruption through online influence. The recent proliferation of AI-driven disinformation along with botnets and deep-fake technologies will only increase the opportunity for this type of interference12 .

Another African panellist located EDT within the context of a broader set of strategies to help regional economies grow and diversify, even amid the current global economic crisis triggered by efforts to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic which originated from China in late 2019. Trends affected by EDT include globalization—with longstanding patterns of growth, diversification and investment being thrown into disarray by disruptions to the global supply chain ecosystem and the de-coupling of the world’s two largest economies, China and the United States. In addition, technology and data are continuing to show falling costs and rising access, but this risks the emergence of “two Africas”: a connected, technologically adept, increasingly urban and prosperous continent, alongside a rural population at increasing risk of being left behind. This, panellists noted, had clear implications for internal and interstate security in the region, as governments’ relations with their citizens are being affected by COVID-19. Despite improving governance in many countries, the disease and a series of technologically-enabled government interventions against it may allow for greater authoritarianism in the region. China, with an extensive suite of technologies optimized for social control and state