HOFFENHEIM HERTHA BERLIN

After MD10, Hoffenheim would have been forgiven for starting to think about qualification for European competition this season. They were in fourth position with 17 points, just two points away from second-place Bayern Munich and six off league leaders Union Berlin. Then Hoffenheim went into a tailspin. A 14-game winless run in which they lost 12 times and picked up just two points saw them drop down the table. That winless run was their longest in the Bundesliga, while they also set another record within this sequence of results, by losing seven games in a row.

Heading into their final Bundesliga game before the March international break, Hoffenheim found themselves bottom of the league table, a point behind both Schalke and Stuttgart and two points behind their next opponents Hertha BSC. Luckily for Hoffenheim and Matarazzo, they put an end to their awful run and secured a vital 3-1 win at home to the Berlin side on 18 March.

Much of Hoffenheim’s problems stem from their weak defence, one that hasn’t kept a clean sheet in 15 league games now – the longest current run of any Bundesliga team.

Much of their hopes for survival will hinge on the form of star striker Andrej Kramarić, who is their record goalscorer in the German top-flight with 95 Bundesliga goals. He proved his worth with two crucial penalties in their win over Hertha on the last matchday and will undoubtedly be the man to provide the goals that may keep them out of trouble. Their key games to come are their next home game – on MD27 – against Schalke 04, while the final game of the season could be absolutely huge.

Hertha BSC only narrowly avoided relegation last season by securing their Bundesliga status in a relegation play-off versus Hamburg.

After going the first four games without a win (D1 L3), the Berliners went on a five-game unbeaten run (W1 D4) but since then the poor form has returned with 11 losses in 16 Bundesliga matches seeing them average only 0.8 points per game. Despite this, Hertha have stuck with coach Schwarz and are the only team within the bottom five to have kept with the same manager all season so far.

Since the turn of the year, Hertha’s defence has been the major issue. They have conceded 26 goals in the Bundesliga post-World Cup, which is more than any other team, while that total is more than they conceded before the winter break (22) in five games fewer.

Regular goalkeeper Oliver Christensen hasn’t been able to keep out the goals. His goals prevented tally of minus 8.9 is the worst of any Bundesliga keeper in 2022-23, conceding 48 goals (excluding own goals) from an expected goals on target total of 39.1.

Hertha’s survival will probably come down to how many points they can pick up from their remaining four home games this season. So far in 2022-23, the Berlin side have picked up a league-high 81% of points in home games (17/21), while two of their last four games at the Olympiastadion Berlin are against direct relegation rivals: Stuttgart on MD31 – the only team yet to win an away game in the 202223 Bundesliga – and Bochum on MD33, who have lost the most away games in 2022-23 (11).