imaging a net zero future

Alexi Barnstone, Editor of The Climatized

Those who are suffering from climate anxiety are often overburdened with a sense of helplessness. Media coverage eschews discussions over practical systemic change for discussion about economics versus ecology, the focus on profit versus nature. The discussion leaves us with a sense of learned helplessness, that feeling that irrespective of what we do capita is too powerful, nature is bound to be destroyed.

Research from the CSIRO may beg to differ. In 2019, they published the Australian National Outlook Report, which used complex economic, social, and environmental modelling to explore the difference between possible ways Australia could look in 2060. The two possible scenarios were; one where the nation fails to prepare for the challenges of tomorrow, and one where it doesn’t. 50 leaders from 22 different organisations across sectors assisted in the development of the report, which was the second of its kind. When it came to climate change, it could not have been clearer, stating “we are beyond the ability to eliminate the effects of climate change.” This confronting reality, however, does not mean the situation must necessarily be dire.

in greenhouse gas emissions, by 2100 the world could warm by 4ºC since pre-industrial times. In order to realise the positive path projected by CSIRO, the scientific research institute calls for global cohesion and action on the issue of climate change. The Slow Decline model provides us with an indication of the direction that Australia is headed in should it fail to act quickly, in conjunction with a global effort of similar vigour.

In the event that Australia stays its course, CSIRO’s modelling provides a trajectory that only sees an 11% decline in our emissions by the year 2060. CSIRO compared different assumptions on GDP growth, a common measure of the strength of the economy, and action to reduce emissions. The findings indicated that economic growth was an independent factor from the issue of emission reduction. That GDP could grow at a steady rate simultaneously with a radical reduction in emissions across the nation. This decoupling, between emissions and GDP, shows us that stronger action on environmental measures need not come at the expense of economic outcomes.

The positive outlook, which the report denotes as the Outlook Vision, suggests that with strong global action to limit climate change, lower emissions from energy, and greater sequestration to draw down carbon from the atmosphere, the nation could reach a net zero emissions target by 2050.

The scientific capacity to mitigate the damages of climate change exists. What is lacking is the political will. Australia has the ability to address this crisis, and avoid the worst of its cataclysms. But to do so will take leadership, forward thinking and staunch action on the issue. The entirety of the repercussions for the Anthropocene cannot be avoided in this late hour, but through activism, spirit and vehement demanding of climate action, the worst may yet be avoided. Political will is key to addressing this issue. The economy vs. ecology dichotomy is false, and the world can still be made a better place.