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Figure 2: Andhra Pradesh State road transport Corporation APSRTC
ROAD-MAP FOR BUS FLEET AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANDHRA PRADESH STATE ROAD TRANSPORT CORPORATION - APSRTC
Table 7: Historic trend V/s Current Trend – Operational Efficiency .....................................................25 Table 8: Historic trend V/s Current Trend – Routes..............................................................................25 Table 9: Mode share and Rate of Changes applied in default for Business as usual Scenario.............25 Table 10: Scenario 1 – Critical base values ...........................................................................................26 Table 11: Scenario 1 –Outputs..............................................................................................................27 Table 12: Scenario 2 – Mode share and Rate of Changes applied in defaults for Mode- share retain Scenario.................................................................................................................................................31 Table 13: Scenario 2 - Critical base values ............................................................................................31 Table 14: Scenario 2 – Outputs.............................................................................................................32 Table 15: Scenario 3 – Mode share and Rate of Changes applied in defaults for Mode- share retain Scenario.................................................................................................................................................35 Table 16: Scenario 3 - Critical base values ............................................................................................36 Table 17: Scenario 3 – Outputs.............................................................................................................36 Table 18: Scenario 4 – Mode share and Rate of Changes applied in defaults for Mode- share retain Scenario.................................................................................................................................................42 Table 19: Scenario 4 - Critical base values ............................................................................................43 Table 20: Scenario 4 – Outputs.............................................................................................................43 Table 21: Five-year projections for all four scenarios...........................................................................51 Table 22: Projected Horizon Year Mode Share Comparison for Intercity and Intracity buses.............53 Table 23: Comparison of estimated losses for profitability for desired scenario (25%).......................53 Table 24: Comparison of estimated losses for profitability for desired scenario (30%).......................54 Table 25: Base year Inputs....................................................................................................................55 Table 26: Target value Scenario- wise Comparison for mode share ....................................................55 Table 27: Projected Outputs Scenario- wise Comparison ....................................................................56
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ROAD-MAP FOR BUS FLEET AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANDHRA PRADESH STATE ROAD TRANSPORT CORPORATION - APSRTC
1 Study Background
State Transport Undertakings (STUs) in India are focusing mainly on sustaining current operations, with limited resources at hand. They find themselves unable to direct effort towards estimating demand trends, supply gaps and sector status (such as demand catered by competing modes). Thus, they may not be ideally positioning themselves to cater to future requirements. In such a scenario, STUs may face increasing challenges towards meeting current and future fleet and infrastructure upgradation requirements. These challenges include both land and financing constraints. To address this, STUs need additional capital and technical investments, which needs to be planned for. To tap into potential financing and/or funding resources the STU’s need to make a case for requirement of fleet and infrastructure upgradation. This mandates the need for a long-range plan backed by a vision, and a roadmap to achieve that vision in both the long and the short term. However, to affect the overall revamping and improvement in the financial health of STUs, simple induction of fleet may not be sufficient. What is required is a detailed understanding and action on fleet, operations, service and infrastructure requirements, over a longer term. To achieve this, STUs require to focus on developing long range development plans as well roadmap to achieve the goals set in the development plans. Both the central government and the Association of State Road Transport Undertakings (ASRTU) have set up challenging goals for the STUs and are offering to support them in achieving the same. As a part of this initiative, this study is being undertaken to help revive and reposition bus based public transport in India. To achieve the aim of this project, a road map development exercise is proposed to be undertaken for Andhra Pradesh State Road Corporation (APSRTC). To have a credible demonstrating effect the findings from the exercise need to be both robust and comprehensive. This roadmap development exercise proposes to provide quantified and comparative, scenario-based data to the decision and policy makers and seeks to demonstrate both the methodology and the utility of producing a road map for development of APSRTC. A critical objective of the study is the development of a bus fleet upgradation plan for STU’s and provide policy level recommendation for bus service improvement in in terms of projected - recommended fleet size, land requirement, annual budgetary provision, staff strength, etc. – in different scenarios. This estimation and projection are governed by a current condition and expected scenario. Current conditions are defined by data such as existing fleet strength, number of trips catered, fleet age, etc., while different scenario is defined by a number of variables such as desire mode share, projection of route length, projection of number of routes, desired efficiency, desired occupancy, etc. Because estimation of policy recommendations in multiple scenarios involves complex calculations this roadmap is based on modelling APSRTC’s fleet requirement using the fleet estimation tool developed by SGArchitects, Delhi. It is expected that the outputs from the tool will contribute to an informed short, medium and long-term planning to achieve the vision and the goals for the corporation and STU’s will be able to use the findings of this study, to tap additional resources and funds. This report highlights the estimation of fleet and bus infrastructure for APSRTC, under four scenarios, which are: Business as usual scenario, mode share retain scenario, desirable scenario (25% mode share) and desirable scenario (30% mode share). Section two of this report highlights about APSRTC, Section three discusses development of the road map in detail with project methodology. Section four, of the report highlights the development of bus fleet upgradation tool, components and its functionality. Section five discusses the interactions and the meetings held during the process and section six focusses on the outcomes obtained through the tool for two different scenarios generated out for APSRTC followed by the profitability factors and comparison of the outputs generated for the different scenarios.
