Last year we predicted...
AI will become the new electricity
Humanity 2.0 is coming
Shifting to a Zero UI world
AI is the new electricity
By 2025, machines will do 71% of tasks that humans currently do at work
Humans and AI actively working together in more than 1500 companies
AI will not replace managers but... Managers who don’t use AI will be replaced by managers who do.
Humanity 2.0 is coming
Science fiction becomes science reality
Ford: robotic exoskeletons for all workers in 15 plants
UK Ethics Council: It’s ‘morally permissible’ to create genetically modified babies
Shifting to a Zero UI world
Not that all screens will go away
Screenless means less unnecessary screens
2014: Smart digital voice assistants were a crazy idea
Gartner: by 2020, 30% of browsing will be done screenless
This year we’ll try to be even wilder with our predictions
To recap, our Lenses approach
Satellite view
Wide-angle perspective
Portrait close-up
Microscopic look
(2017)
Netflix
(2018)
Amazon
(2019)
SpaceX
SpaceX: pushing humanity back on track to a Star Trek future
2008: SpaceX first rocket launch
2018: Elon Musk launching his own Tesla into space
30 scheduled launches in 2018
18 successful launches already
40% cheaper than its closest competitor
Falcon 9 rockets are not only recoverable but also reusable
24-hr turnaround to reuse rockets for backto-back missions
2019 - fly astronauts to the International Space Station
2019 - SpaceX will test-launch the BFR – a spaceship designed to eventually take humans to Mars
2023: Yusaku Maezawa trip around the Moon
#dearMoon
Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon, pushing Blue Origin to the Moon
Is the beginning of a 21st century space race?
Planet
No longer possible to deny climate change
Record-strength hurricanes, rainfall and flooding
Wildfires in the Arctic Circle, droughts along major rivers, heatwaves that don’t go away
Long-term threats of sea level rise and ocean acidification
Shift to a sustainable and renewable economy: A $28 trillion opportunity
Not acting will result in mounting costs
Sustainable mobility
World's first hydrogen-powered trains
2017: More than 3 million EV’s on the road
Sales of electric cars increased 58% compared to 2016
By 2025 Tesla, Volkswagen, Jaguar, Audi, Nissan, Mercedes Benz, Ford, BMW, Chevy, Volvo will all have EV’s
Electric mobility will expand to buses, trucks, planes and ships
China has 400.000 electric buses 20% of its national bus supply
As much as the entire oil demand of Greece
2019: peak oil demand?
Supply Chain and Logistics
Tesla Semi: longhaul electric truck crossed the US using only Superchargers
Volvo truck prototype: no cab for drivers. Built to be completely autonomous
Autonomous ships can change energy consumption patterns and business models
Next-gen sailor: from manual labourer to remote operator
Fully autonomous commercial planes are on the way
Prototype cargo drones that can carry loads of up to 220 kg
Smaller drones already used for last-mile deliveries in USA, Iceland, Rwanda and China
Customer-centricity is also fundamentally impacting the supply chain
94% of customers want transparency about the products they buy and use
Unilever unveils new line of personal care products aimed at sustainability-minded Millennials
Including soaps and conditioners that can be rinsed off quickly to save water
Business
A golden age for economics, thanks to data
From satellites to smart cities to smartphones
Valuable raw data streams waiting to be processed
Energy Mobility
Potential applications
Utilities & infrastructure Care
Public services
Cybersecurity
Estimated damage 2017: $ 600 billion 2021: $ 6 trillion
Organized crime: cyber mercenaries and data mafias
Hibernating in networks for months before pulling off the attack
They may target anything of value especially restricted information
Collected data of millions of people is more valuable than you think
Hackers also target insecure devices of organisations and individuals
33% of Mobile developers: security was ignored for convenience and revenue
The challenge: finding the right balance between security & simplicity
Cybersec professionals are fighting back
AI can help with velocity, volume and variety of cyberattacks
Algorithms can only learn from past attacks, but cannot anticipate new attack patterns
Hackers can reverseengineer attacks to be invisible for algorithms
This cat and mouse game will continue
Automation & AI
Autonomous forklifts, pallet sorters, reprogrammable “smart arms�
2019: Industrial robotics market $ 135 billion
25.000 cobots already sold and put to work in factories
Future robots can take humanoid shapes and do manual labour
Flexible “snake-like� robots can reach places that humans cannot
Alibaba concept restaurant in China: robot waiters
New KPI: Robot density
Global average for 2018: 74 units per 10.000 workers
West (average): >85 Europe: 99 China: 68 South Korea: 631 (that’s not a typo...)
Robot friendly buildings: easy access, perform tasks with less friction
AI hits critical mass
2021: Virtual assistant market worth $16 billion
Heavy corporate R&D spending globally in AI
We never had more data than now
New: a Google tool just to search for datasets
AI researchers making machine learning more efficient
New AI algorithms can learn by themselves, no human required to train them
Practicing in VR for 100 years in simulation time - but just a few days in real time
Some limitations: we don't always know if AI is making the right decisions for the right reasons
AI that explains itself - and justifies why it came to a conclusion
China becoming a global AI superpower
USA and China earmarking billions to develop AI
Experts warning countries not to build autonomous weapon systems
Will the AI race cause the next Cold War?
Future of Work
Look at the world 10 years after the iPhone‌ What will the world look like 10 years after the rise of AI?
Whenever Amazon enters a market, incumbents must be very afraid
By 2021, Amazon will be opening up to 3000 cashierless stores
KLM's Facebook Messenger chatbot: 16.000 customer interactions weekly
Sends out over 2 million messages to half a million customers
62% of consumers happy with chatbots providing 24/7 service
Implications for employment profiles in the service industry
The new digital workplace is changing
Walmart: thousands of VR headsets to train employees
Nearly all Fortune 500 companies use automation to hire new people
Being assessed by AI might be a good thing
Scanning social media activity... Analysing tone of voice... Assessing word choice...
But remember to check algorithms for bias - you may miss out on promising candidates
The gig economy
4% of all US citizens receives income from the top 30 gig platforms
Even knowledge workers aren’t immune...
When will McKinsey be disrupted by the Uber of consulting?
We need platforms, but do we need platform companies?
FairBnB: profits go to hosts, not the platform
AirBnB has requested the SEC to let it give its hosts equity
Further blurring the line between company, employee, consumer, investor
Evolving education for the future economy
Mixed reality in education will let kids learn, think and work in 3D
University of Pennsylvania now offering completely online Bachelor's Degrees
Udacity: $ 70 million in revenue in 2017 Coursera: $ 100 million revenue in 2018
2022: E-Learning industry worth $ 250 billion
Malta’s Ministry for Education and Employment is deploying a lifelong learning strategy
As more machines enter the economy, what will displaced humans do?
15 countries now conducting experiments with basic income
People
Time to switch lenses again and get a bit closer to our daily lives
Entertainment & Social Media
Netflix pulled off an amazing digital transformation
Netflix 2018: 1.000 original series and movies
2018 Emmys: Netflix beat HBO with 112 nominations, 23 awards
State of the art video streaming technologies
User data is key so they track everything...
Disney and TimeWarner creating their own streaming portals
Facebook has released its own TV show - “Sorry For Your Loss”
Facebook: close to 2 billion active users worldwide
Frustrated consumers are going back to The Pirate Bay
By 2025, half of millennial viewers will not subscribe to a cable service
Is the end near for linear television?
Video games expected to hit $140 bn by end-2018
Close to 50% of global TV and video revenues
Game development typically takes 2 - 5 years, costs tens of millions
Games are getting bigger
Graphics inching closer to photorealism
Fully voice-acted with 15-50 hours of story
Gamers are playing, but also watching games being played
E-sports are now billion-dollar events, with 300 million fans worldwide
2016 League of Legends World Championship watched by 40 million viewers
$25 million worth of prizes and deals Higher than the top prize for winning Tour de France
Amy Winehouse goes on tour, although she passed away in 2011
As a hologram
Ethical dilemmas: what does death mean
Social media increasingly facing "privacy paradox"
The more data platforms have, the more they can personalise your experience
But the more data they collect, the more likely hackers will target that data
To influence everything from what you buy to who you vote for
But social media can be a force for good
The #metoo movement 2 years old and still going strong
Reaching at least 85 countries worldwide
Let’s switch lenses
Cell
Future of Food
Technology is changing what we eat and how we make it
GMO foods have long been controversial but have undeniable benefits
Like apples that don’t brown so quickly
Hornless cows and low-fat pigs
High Tech,Farms with sensors, drones and robots
300.000 autonomous tractors already in use around the world
Cellular meat will be a gamechanger
2013: the world’s first lab-grown burger cost $300.000
2018: quarter pound of meat now costs $600, tastes even better
Cost-competitive with traditional meat before 2028 Also healthier, sustainable and ethical
Healthcare
Wearable market worth $ 20 billion by 2021
The real magic is in the Big Data of Health
20 million Fitbit users worldwide 150 billion hours of heartrate data
Jawbone’s new business model predictive maintenance for humans
Apple: integrating user health data across multiple healthcare systems
Your entire health history at your fingertips
Influx of health data a clear signal for insurance companies
John Hancock: all new policies must include data from fitness trackers
They call their new business model: Interactive Life Insurance
Digital Fitness 2022: $27.4 billion
Can AI be your next personal fitness coach?
Even Google and Fitbit are making moves in this space
BioTech
DNA is the programming language of the future
We can now create human embryos from just skin cells
Google Maps for the human body
Spinal implants helping paralyzed patients to walk on their own feet
Predictions
AI and robots will gain legal rights
AIs making ethical decisions - who is responsible?
Regulation means legal definitions of duties and responsibilities
Advanced automation and algorithms may be assigned rights, permissions and liabilities, just like humans
A Cyber 9/11 will occur
We will see an cyber-equivalent of terrorist attack a catastrophic network failure
Shutdown of national communication infrastructure Crippling a regional electricity grid
Hacking a major central bank Rigging national elections
Moving to a sensor-based economy
The beating heart of smart cities: embedded sensors and the data they capture
Imagine tens of thousands of sensors recording everything everywhere all the time
Data-driven algorithms optimising systems in realtime
And automatically delivering desirable outcomes with minimal human intervention
AI and Robots will gain legal rights
A Cyber 9/11 will occur
Moving to a sensor-based economy