Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

Analytical Function

Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios identifies technological solutions and develops scenarios illustrating how the Nordic energy sector can achieve carbon neutrality by involving various sectors. Quantitative scenarios have been developed, describing pathways to carbon neutrality from 2018 to 2050.

In 2019, the Nordic countries signed a joint Declaration on Carbon Neutrality, committing to make the Nordics a carbon neutral region, in line with the COP21 Paris Climate Agreement.

Nordic Energy Research realized the need for a publicly available research-based analysis, to gather Nordic perspectives on national and regional energy systems and to complement ongoing work in each country.

To support this commitment, Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios was commissioned. The analysis has two aims: To identify and help prioritise necessary actions leading up to 2030 through scenario modelling, and to map potential long-term pathways to carbon neutrality.

A rapidly changing landscape

Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios builds on earlier efforts of Nordic Energy Research, for instance, the Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives reports (2013, 2016). However, the rapidly changing landscape of the energy sector has seen cost declines for energy technologies that were unimaginable a few years ago, while ambitions to curb climate change have risen around the world.

An updated analysis

These developments have changed the prospects for certain technologies and the conditions for the Nordic energy system, highlighting the need for an updated analysis of technological and socio-economic conditions.

Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios is conducted by a consortium of leading researchers and consultants working with energy modelling and scenario development, and managed by Energiforsk in Sweden.

“At Energiforsk, we often work with projects that focus on the Swedish energy system. With Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios, we had the opportunity to look at the Nordic region as a whole, capturing co-benefits and difficulties that arise when the energy system is analysed at a regional level. This is often missing in national analytical work, and it was paramount that Nordic Energy Research initiated a common Nordic analysis, that will provide an important benchmark for future national studies in the coming years.”

Markus Wråke, CEO, Energiforsk, Sweden

The three scenarios developed and explored in the analysis are:

1) Carbon Neutral Nordics (CNN) seeks the least-cost pathway, taking into account current national plans, strategies, and targets.

2) Nordic Powerhouse (NPH) explores the opportunity for the Nordics to play a larger role in the broader European energy transition by providing clean electricity, clean fuels, and carbon storage.

3) Climate Neutral Behaviour (CNB) reflects Nordic societies adopting additional energy and material efficiency measures in all sectors, ultimately leading to lower demand for both.