Raising Tensions

Strategic Vision vol. 7, no. 36 (February, 2018)

China’s unilateral imposition of new flight route undermines Taiwan security

Guang-chang Bian

ROC President Tsai Ing-wen has been a strong supporter of national defense and has criticized Beijing for not consulting Taiwan on the M503 flight route.

photo: VOA

In early January, the Civil Aviation Administration of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) officially announced the activation of a new flight route and its connecting airways to three adjacent cities. Given that the route, labeled M503, passes extremely close to the center line of the Taiwan Strait, the government of the Republic of China (ROC) found the action unacceptable. While ostensibly a measure to alleviate air traffic around southeast China, it is viewed by Taiwan analysts as an offensive measure, and a threat to both Taiwan’s sovereignty and safety.

In response to the activation of the M503 flight route, Chang Hsiao-yueh, director of the Mainland Affairs Council, held a press conference on 4 January to lodge a stern protest against the new flight route for not consulting with Taiwan. She also claimed that these actions not only severely endangered flight safety in the affected airspace, but also alluded to the PRC’s barely concealed unfriendly strategic and political intentions. In order to alleviate the flight safety risk and maintain the dignity of Taiwan, Chung asserted that China needs to take full responsibility for the negative impact on cross-strait relations.

Taiwan’s Civil Aeronautics Administration also asked commercial airlines not to use these routes, threatening punitive measures against offenders. However, none of the commercial airlines heeded the warning given that markets in China are highly profitable. Following Chung’s press conference, President Tsai Ing-wen called a national security meeting on January 7th to respond to the M503 issue and made five statements: Her statements essentially condemned China’s unilateral activation of the disputed airways and urged China to reopen negotiations on the issue, emphasizing the importance of flight safety.

The density and complexity of international flight routes is revealed in this graphic depicting major flight routes throughout the globe.

graphic: Jpatokal

Broader context

The controversy over the M503 flight route must be viewed against the backdrop of broader cross-strait relations. Since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power in Taipei in 2016, the PRC has put a chill on relations with Taiwan. At the crux of the problem is how the two sides view the cross-strait relationship: While the PRC wants Taiwan to agree to the so-called 1992 Consensus, the DPP accepts a more vague concept that they refer to as the “Spirit of the 1992 Consensus.” The PRC has been putting pressure on the Tsai administration to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus, and the recent announcement of the M503 flight route is viewed as part of this effort to punish Taiwan.

Since coming to power, the DPP has refused to acknowledge that there was indeed any consensus reached on the One China concept during the KooWang talks in 1992. They have, however, insisted that the two sides should set aside their differences and open a dialogue to address issues of mutual interest, in the spirit of how this was accomplished back in 1992.

Headquarters of the ICAO in Montreal, Canada. Taiwan was not invited to attend meetings, risking conflict such as the M503 situation.

photo: Henrickson

The 1992 Consensus says that there is “one China,” but “two interpretations.” It is a concept that was developed in 2000 by politician Su Chi in an attempt to bridge the gap between the differences in how the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) view the One China principle. In the aforementioned talks, held in Hong Kong in 1992, in order to surmount the obstacle wherein the government in Beijing insists that dialogue can only proceed after both sides bend the knee to the one China principle, the KMT delegation agreed to do so in vague terms, with the two sides differing privately on whether the “one China” in question is the PRC or the ROC.

Problematic setbacks

Although this consensus has been seen as a foundation of mutual trust across the Taiwan Strait in previous years, President Tsai and DPP still reject it as potentially restrictive, as well as improperly giving the impression that Taiwan can be viewed as a part of China.

A problematic setback for Taiwan was being barred from participating in the 39th Triennial Assembly at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in Montreal, Canada. Given that Taiwan is not a member of the ICAO, which is subordinate to the United Nations and is in charge of global civil aviation, Taiwan was originally not recognized by the ICAO and has had no access to it until 2013. That year, Taiwan was invited as a special guest to the assembly. As this invitation was based on China’s connivance and good will, it was condemned by the DPP for not using Taiwan’s proper title and global recognition. However, this invitation is still regarded as an outstanding achievement of the KMT regime in global recognition and participation.

The failure to receive an invitation to attend the ICAO Assembly 2016 became an indicator of the DPP’s capability to maintain Taiwan’s global recognition and prosperity. Despite the fact that this failure was regarded as a signal from China to compel the DPP to accept the 1992 Consensus to serve Beijing’s political needs, the lack of ICAO participation could lead to potential hazards to both military and civil aviation. On 12 January, 2015, the Shanghai Air Traffic Control Centre (ACC) issued a notification informing airliners that flights flying from Shanghai Pudong Airport to Hong Kong Magog and from Qingdao Liuting Airport to Singapore, Hong Kong, or Macau should be diverted to the new route M503 at certain altitudes, beginning 4 March, 2015. According to the notification, all flights were required to fly parallel to the M503 at a distance of four nautical miles.

First advanced route

The implementation of M503 aims to relieve overloaded air traffic in Southeast China. The planning of this new route was initiated in 2007 to cope with the increasing air traffic in Southeast China. The US Federal Aviation Administration also assisted in the development of this new route. According to the Minutes of the First Review Conference on the Main Navigation Traffic in the South China Sea hosted by ICAO’s Asia Pacific Division in Kuala Lumpur, M503 was the first advanced route in China, sufficient information and data on this route was collected in order to improve flight operations. Although this new flight route is meant to improve flight safety and reduce delays, the geographic location of the M503 produces challenges to Taiwan’s air defense, and reduces airspace for ROC Air Force training.

Taiwan’s exclusion might create potential hazards, especially since some airlines and pilots are not familiar with the sensitive political nature of the Taiwan Strait.

The M503 flight route does not pass through either Taiwan’s national airspace or the controlled airspace of the Taipei ACC. Taiwan is not considered a relevant party and has no legal position to raise any objection to the planning and implementation of this route. Furthermore, during the planning and design phase of this route, the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) of

A Boeing 747-409 in the China Airlines fleet, Taiwan’s national carrier, in flight over Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport.

photo: Pedro Aragão

the United States assisted China in confirming the safety and feasibility of establishing this route. This assistance implies that the official position of the United States favors the implementation of M503. Other agencies, such as the International Federation of Civil Aviation Pilots’ Associations, the Chinese Air Transport Association, International Air Transport Association and other related organizations also supported implementation. However, Taiwan was excluded from discussions.

Creating hazards

Although the Taiwan FIR has the position to claim that the flights along the M503 might require assistance from the Taipei ACC in severe weather or unanticipated situations, Taiwan has no chance to put forth this claim without the right to participate in official ICAO meetings. Taiwan’s exclusion might create potential hazards, especially since some airlines and pilots are not familiar with the sensitive political nature of the Taiwan Strait. The political situation between Taiwan and China is becoming tense. If pilots and airlines are not familiar with this reality, and if they must undertake changes to their flight operations, or encounter unique situations while traveling on M503, they may inadvertently cause Taiwan’s air defense system to react.

Taiwan needs to shift its argument from political and military confrontation to that of practical air traffic control issues.

Historically, airline tragedies have occurred when civilian flights have strayed into military areas. The infamous Korean Airlines Flight 007 accident is an example of this sort of tragedy. In 1983, a Korean Airlines Boeing 747 mistakenly entered Russia’s airspace and was shot down by a Russian interceptor. This accident directly caused 269 fatalities.

A Soviet interceptor aircraft on display at the Ukrainian Air Force Museum in Vinnitsa. A similar fighter shot down Korean airlines flight 007 in 1983.

photo: George Chernilevsky

Participating in ICAO meetings is essential to avoiding these kinds of mistakes. Although Taiwan has claimed that the political and strategic environment across the Taiwan Strait is unique and requires more attention than just flight safety, this issue could not be raised during the planning and designing of the new route. The implementation of M503 has caused the military training areas of the air forces of both Taiwan and China to shrink.

Travelers at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, the main point of entry. The M503 route puts civilian flights at risk of military misidentification.

photo: Lienyuan Lee

Limited airspace

In order to maintain flight safety, air force fighters need to be more cautious about ensuring enough separation from civilian flights. Unlike China, Taiwan has limited airspace for military training, and it is difficult to find alternative airspace. Therefore the constraints introduced by the new route are more harmful to Taiwan than to China.

Although adjusting the overall civilian flight route layout in Taiwan might increase the training space for the ROC Air Force, this action cannot be taken without the coordination of relevant parties, and the permission of ICAO. Taiwan has little ability and influence to improve flight safety and thereby ensure its national security. Therefore, Taiwan needs to urge relevant parties to help it participate in the ICAO.

The activation of this airway is not only in line with China’s economic interests, but is also supported by relevant international civil aviation organizations. Claims and statements from Taiwan’s government simply amount to internal political noise. The international audience, especially civil aviation sectors, will not only support China, but view Taiwan as unreasonable if it continues to issue political threats against commercial airlines. Therefore, Taiwan needs to shift its argument from political and military confrontation, to that of practical air traffic control issues.

One possible option for Taiwan would be to lobby the ICAO to slightly adjust the location of the nearby international flight route L1, closer to M503. This would produce more airspace for Taiwan’s air force to utilize for training purposes. It would also give Taiwan an opportunity to participate more in ICAO meetings and planning.

Colonel Guang-chang Bian is a professor at the ROC National Defense University. He can be reached for comment at: drbian1977@gmail.com