8 minute read
Missing the Old Normal
Strategic Vision vol. 9, no. 46 (June, 2020)
COVID-19 global pandemic hinders China’s relations with India and Japan
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Amrita Jash
US President Donald Trump, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G20 summit.
photo: Shealah Craighead
What started as the Wuhan virus in December 2019 in China had transitioned by March 2020 into a global pandemic, rebranded as COVID-19. On one hand, the stringent measures employed by Beijing to combat the virus outbreak, such as imposing lockdowns, travel restrictions, and testing through no-contact measures, have been lauded in the press; on the other hand, China’s lack of transparency and initial attempts to cover up the outbreak have put Beijing under global scrutiny. This has raised serious doubts over China’s ability to act as a responsible stakeholder, and has hampered the diplomatic efforts of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
US, Japanese, and Indian Naval officers address participants during the 2019 Malabar Exercise.
photo: Isaac Maxwell
With increased damage to China’s responsible image, the pandemic severely hijacked Beijing’s relations and led to harsh criticism of the communist regime. Examples of this criticism include references to COVID-19 as the Chinese virus or Wuhan virus; describing China’s aid activities as little more than “mask diplomacy”; and calls to make China pay for the damage done. The biggest casualty has been China’s relations with the United States. With hundreds of thousands having died from the virus worldwide, countries have been prompted to rethink their ties with the Beijing regime. India and Japan have been notable exceptions, however, by not joining in the blame game.
The significance of Beijing’s relations with New Delhi and Tokyo is four-fold. First, China shares important bilateral ties with both. Second, both are important trading partners. Third, China has unresolved territorial issues with both, including territorial and maritime disputes with Japan in the East China Sea. Fourth, both New Delhi and Tokyo are important partners to the United States.
COVID-19 impact
Given these factors, it is imperative to understand the impact of COVID-19 on China’s good relations with India and Japan, as they have important repercussions for Asia, and for the globe. Calling for a global effort to fight the pandemic, Chinese leaders have launched a Health Silk Road approach to diplomacy, by providing test kits, masks, ventilators and other medical supplies to over 100 countries. In addition, countries such as Italy, Pakistan, Iran, Venezuela, and others have also received contingents of Chinese medical teams. Through such efforts, China hopes to boost its international status. However, its own handling of the virus outbreak has raised serious doubts over Beijing’s ability to act as a responsible world leader. China’s battle against international criticism has
given rise to another aspect of the COVID-19 fallout: the rise of so-called wolf warrior diplomacy. Chinese diplomats have become increasingly more strident and combative, applying diplomatic aggression to win the war to control the narrative. “The days when China can be put in a submissive position are long gone,” the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) mouthpiece The Global Times tweeted.
International crises can often become make-orbreak opportunities. For China, COVID-19 has proved to be a “break” moment. With the pandemic destabilizing the international economy and global order, the most pressing challenge for China—besides saving the lives of its citizens—is damage control. Unfortunately, the wolf warrior attitude of Beijing’s representatives is only causing more damage to its already tarnished image.
Spirits dampened
The celebratory spirit of the 70th anniversary of China-India relations has been gravely hit by the pandemic. What was supposed to be a landmark year has seen a number of severe diplomatic challenges over COVID-19. First, India stepped up scrutiny of investments from neighboring countries to curb “opportunistic takeovers and acquisitions”—phrasing that is clearly aimed at Chinese investments. Now, countries need to approach the Indian government rather than opting for the automatic route. Calling this “discriminatory,” a spokeswoman for the Chinese Embassy in India, Counselor Ji Rong, emphasized the need “to treat investments from different countries equally, and foster an open, fair and equitable business environment.”
Second, the Indian Council of Medical Research found the test kits for coronavirus antibodies provided by two Chinese firms to have poor accuracy, and was forced to return them. Ji went on the defensive, saying that using the word “faulty” to describe Chinese products was “unfair and irresponsible.”
Third, The Global Times took exception to an opinion column in the Indian media outlet WION, which expressed support for Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Assembly, given that country’s impressive handling of the pandemic and its diplomatic isolation at the hands of China. The aforementioned CCP mouthpiece advised WION, and other Indian media, to “think independently,” characterizing WION’s words of support for Taiwan as defiance of China’s “internationally recognized one-China principle.”
A US Air Force B-1B takes off from Anderson Air Force Base in Guam to support operations in the Sea of Japan.
photo: River Bruce
Finally, the virus failed to prevent or dampen tensions at the border when in June, India and China witnessed a violent scuffle in the Galwan Valley of Eastern Ladakh, resulting in the death of 20 Indian soldiers. This was the deadliest incident between the two countries’ militaries since 1967. The precursor to this was set in May, when Indian and Chinese troops clashed in two previous incidents, to which China responded by saying “our troops there are committed to upholding peace and stability.” Furthermore, China accused India of causing the tensions by turning a blind eye to its own transgressions along the contested border that led to the calamity. These situations exemplify the tensions at play between China and India, and the pandemic is only adding new facets to old diplomatic tensions.
A traditional ceremony is held at a monastery in Ladakh. The region has been the site of conflict recently between Indian and Chinese troops.
What looked to have been improving Beijing-Tokyo relations was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Most notably, the outbreak has hijacked the biggest potential political breakthrough in Sino-Japanese ties by stalling a state visit by PRC General Secretary Xi Jinping planned for April. This diplomatic event was seen by both sides as a potential stabilizer for the fragile ties, but the virus outbreak caused a delay. On a positive note, Japan was the first to provide medical aid to China by donating masks, goggles, protective suits, and other supplies for epidemic prevention and control. In addition, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party Diet members also donated a portion of their March salaries (5,000 yen) to China’s fight against COVID-19—a sum totaling 2 million yen, or about US$18,170.
The impact on bilateral ties can be witnessed in several areas. First, the disruption of the export-import supply chain has prompted Japan to shift its manufacturing of high value-added products from China back to Japan, and for the production of other goods to be spread across Southeast Asia. In doing so, a significant amount of the US$2.3 billion stimulus package against COVID-19 has been allotted for companies to shift production back to Japan, or to other countries. This decisive move by Japan risks impacting the effort by Xi and Abe to stabilize relations. With the growing economic contingencies, Japan’s economic recovery will act as a decisive factor in shaping the ties between the two trading partners.
Second, on the political front, Tokyo is showing signs of resentment toward Beijing for its culpability for the virus outbreak. Speaking on the issue of China’s undue influence in the operations of the World Health Organization (WHO), Japan’s Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso expressed criticism by suggesting, “it shouldn’t be called the WHO. It should be renamed the CHO [China Health Organization].” This official criticism of China exemplifies instability in the relationship.
Third, the viral outbreak has failed to reduce tensions in the East China Sea. In March, a Chinese fishing boat collided with the JS Shimakaze, a Hatakaze-class guided missile destroyer in Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force. This further demonstrates that old tensions remain far from settled. These factors exemplify the divide that runs in contrast to the intention of putting relations on a stable track.
Significant shift
Maximilian Dörrbecker (Chumwa)
China’s relations with India and Japan are undergoing a significant shift under the COVD-19 pandemic. Although the wolf warrior diplomacy employed by China’s diplomats has not yet been directed toward India or Japan, relations exhibit the strains of discord, suggesting that not everything is going well.
With national interests held high, there seems to be a divide in the pursuit of interests. The biggest casualty is China’s trade, given that both India and Japan are major trading partners. Amid a global push to disengage from China, India is becoming an attractive new option as a manufacturing base, which will cause China’s economy to suffer from a withdrawal of investments. Japanese manufacturers pulling out of China will only add to the damage done to China’s economy, given Japan’s huge investments there.
Testing grounds
Furthermore, given the unresolved territorial and maritime disputes, if China takes a wolf warrior attitude toward New Delhi and Tokyo, then both the Chinese border with India and the East China Sea will become the testing grounds for Beijing’s resolve to recover from the secondary effects the pandemic. This will further add to the security dilemma between these states.
In addition, the US factor looms large in shaping a new normal in China’s ties with both India and Japan, given that both are strong partners with Washington and, most importantly, members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, which seems to unnerve Chinese leaders.
The global action against China for its silence and lack of transparency over the Wuhan epidemic acts as a litmus test. This will act as a pressure point for both India and Japan, if they so choose. This will result in creating severe discord in ties if New Delhi and Tokyo fail to maintain their respective pre-COVID-19 policies toward Beijing.
With the growing uncertainties and increasing economic distress accompanied by overwhelmed health care systems, many countries are now forced to reevaluate their diplomatic ties with China. India and Japan are no exceptions. Under these circumstances, and with no immediate upswing in relations apparent on the horizon, China’s ties with India and Japan are likely to sink to a new diplomatic low. Therefore, a return to the old normal would appear to be a farfetched prospect.
Sailors aboard the USS McCampbell stand at attention for India’s International Fleet Review 2016 passing exercise hosted by the Indian Navy.
photo: Soon Kwon
Dr. Amrita Jash is Research Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), in New Delhi-India. She holds a PhD in Chinese Studies from Jawaharlal Nehru University.
