Robert Moran May 16, 2011
Our Images of the Futures Hope / Fear = ?
2
Insights MegaTrends
Market Research Futures Shock. A Sampler. 2011
2021
Moving Beyond the Survey
Growing Emerging Markets
80% of global research spending is currently dedicated to quantitative, survey-based, research (ESOMAR, 2010)
The survey will not die, but research will move beyond the survey to social media listening, observational and co-creative (MROCs) tools. established competitors will struggle through this transition.
Two thirds of all traditional marketing research is conducted in the five aging industrial democracies of the United States (30%), the United Kingdom (11%), Germany (9%), France (9%) and Japan (6%) (ESOMAR, 2010).
Research spending will shift toward the emerging economies and firms that have strong research capacity in the emerging economies will grow more rapidly. ―…the next decade will…mark the definitive breakthrough of the global middle class, and demand from this group will be among the crucial economic factors of world economy‖ – Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
4
5 MegaTrends Shaping the Futures of Our Industry
• Data Abundance
social media, ―lifestreaming‖, Internet of things
• Asking-Observing Shift
―listening posts‖ and feedback loops
• Democratization
UGC, co-creation, predictive markets
• Convergence
domain, tool and data
• Strategic Imperative
evolving in a data abundant world
http://www.futureofinsight.com/interviews/
5 http://www.greenbookblog.org/2011/02/21/lead-up-to-the-iir-tdmr-interview-with-robert-moran-of-strategyone/
Abundance: Fishing the Data “River”
―The fundamental premise is that research in 2021 will represent a continuous, organic flow of knowledge—a ―river‖ of information. Today, maybe 80 percent of marketing issues are addressed by conducting a market-research project. By 2021, we think that leading edge companies—probably led by consumer packaged goods and technologically driven enterprises—will look for answers to 80 percent of their marketing issues by fishing the river of information.‖ Journal of Advertising Research, The Shape of Marketing Research in 2021
Or
Or 6
Industry Convergence Predictive Markets Neuromarketing Foresight / Futures Consultancies MROCs
Social Media Listening
Management Consulting
Trends Consultancies Traditional MR Suppliers
―Advisory and consulting skills are growing in importance as researchers are increasingly called upon to draw conclusions and provide advice based on their findings. While trying to reposition themselves higher up the value chain, research agencies come across other organizations that, perhaps beforehand, were not considered to be competitors (such as management consultancies.)‖ ESOMAR: Global Market Research 2009
Data
Insight
Foresight
Strategy
Insight’s Future White Paper:
7
Strategic Imperative: Where would you place your business today? (1) Traditional market research function
(2) Business contribution team
(3) Strategic insight organization
(4) Strategic foresight organization
• Hire for technical skills
• Hire for technical skills
• Hire a mix of people, some w/o deep technical skills (conceptual, analytic, and strategic capabilities are crucial)
• Hire for conceptual, analytic, business, communication, and leadership skills
• Market research methodology and tools
• Mix of methodology and tools coupled with business skills and experience
• Integrated thinking, pattern recognition, and communication
• Integrated thinking with focus on leadership and communication
Career Path
• Limited progression with market research
• Progression within market research
• Progression into other functions or senior roles within market research—and beyond
• Progression into general management
Deliverables
• Findings from each study
• Business recommendations from each study
• Integrated strategy (insights, economics, and competitive advantage)
• Integrated, forward looking corporate strategy (megatrends and scenarios)
• Drive results for the business units
• Create competitive advantage
• Develop knowledge—economic drivers, issues, and trends
• Drive results that improve overall corporate ROI
Hiring
Training
• Respond to requests for custom research
Role
• Take lead on standard research (such as brand tracking)
• Provide insight from the data and findings—the ―so what?‖
• Provide data; ensure accuracy
Way of Working
• Project driven
• Business driven
• Results driven—high ROI on insights efforts
• Future driven—ability to foretell trends and business moves
• Service provider
• Thought partner
• Trusted advisor with a seat at the table
• Corporate leader
• Tactical work
• Prioritization of strategic work
• Prioritization of strategic work
• Primarily strategic work
Methods
• Traditional surveys, focus groups, and techniques
• Traditional and innovative mix, including ethnography and social media
• Traditional and innovative mix, expanding beyond the consumer to economic data and trend work
• Traditional and innovative mix, expanding beyond the consumer to economic data and trend work
Sources
• Each study treated as a stand alone Project
• Studies build upon each other
• Knowledge-capture system spans past research studies
• Full suite of shopper insight tools
Perception Mix
Sources: BCG Consumer Insight Benchmarking (May 2009); BCG analysis.
Access the BCG report here:
8
Exploring Alternative Industry Futures
Foresight Tools for Thinking About the Futures Futures Cone Now
Potential
Plausible
Possible
Probable
Copyright 2000: Joseph Voros
Preferable Potential
10
The Futures Are More Than Tech Forecasting.
Which of these technologies/methodologies will experience the largest increase in adoption in the next 12 months? Predicted Share
Rank
Social Media Analytics
15.5%
1
Mobile Surveys
15.2%
2
Online Communities
12.4%
3
Text Analytics
7.8%
4
Webcam-Based Interviews
7.3%
5
Mobile Qualitative
6.0%
6
―Apps‖ based research
5.9%
7
Mobile Ethnography
4.7%
8
Predictive Markets
3.8%
9
Eye Tracking
3.7%
10
Crowdsourcing
3.6%
11
NeuroMarketing
3.2%
12
Virtual Environments
3.0%
13
Visualization Analytics
2.7%
14
Biometric Response
2.3%
15
Serious Games
1.8%
16
Predictive markets show that social media analytics, mobile surveys, and online communities have predicted shares above 12% the rest are at or below 8% Source: GreenBook Research Industry Trends, April 2011
11
The “STEEP” Forces Driving Our Futures “S”
•
Fragmentation
Social Drivers
•
Rise of Social Networks
•
Privacy Consideration •
“T”
Technologically-created time compression
•
Data explosion (social media & ―Internet of Things‖)
Technological Drivers
•
New observational tools
•
Mobile telephony and geo-location
•
Globalization
“E”
•
Economic Drivers
Consumers in emerging economics
•
Client demands
•
Non-traditional substitutes
Industry Futures
“P” Political Drivers
• Privacy issues with regard to observational research and data mining
Baseline Forecast: The Four Evolutionary Eras of Insight Anticipatory
Co-Creative
Observational
Data Collection—Asking (Survey)
Listening
Neurological
UGC
Behavioral
2008-
Face to Face Telephone
• Face to Face • Telephone surveys surveys • Vertically integrated data collection systems
Online
Geomobile
• Track • Move away from the survey neurological response instrument as the main • fMRI research vehicle • Mobile surveys • Online surveys • Eye-tracking • Location-based • Dramatic shift • Prompted by and other from Intrusive, declining telephone research biological interrogatory survey participation response research, to rates and online monitoring passive, listeningtechnology based research • Data becomes • Social media abundant and research inexpensive • Shift to ―convenience samples‖
• CRM software • Sales data • Experimental marketing • Geotracking • Clickstreams
• Collaborative co-creation • Usergenerated content (UGC) • Insights communities (MROCs) will dominate
Anticipatory
• Focus shifts from mapping current opinion to anticipating future behaviors and alternative futures • Mass simulation gaming* • MROC Delphi panels* • Strategic Foresight • Agent-based computational modeling • Predictive markets
• Creation of ―design communities‖
• ―Listening posts‖ • MROCS • Text analytics
More thinking on this topic at ―Future of Insight‖: 13
―The surprise free future isn’t.‖ -Herman Kahn
14
Wildcard: Privacy
15
22 Plausible Futures Scenarios
―Any useful statement about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.‖ -Jim Dator
17
Socially Driven Futures Definition The Incredible, Shrinking Survey
Survey respondents dwindle and surveys become much more expensive, rare, and very short. Mobile research makes surveys even shorter. MROC and feedback loop firms gain strength.
Do Not Disturb
Privacy movement reduces cooperation rates substantially and the industry shifts to MROCs and highly compensated panelists. Social media research and ―scraping‖ are limited, but opt-in panel companies become powerhouses.
Back to the Future
Landline decline, panel projectability challenges and a desire to reconnect with consumers drives a reversion back to face-toface and door-to-door interviewing. This is not uncommon in other parts of the world, especially the Middle East.
What was privacy?
Facebook generation meets privacy concerns with a yawn. Scraping, lifestreaming and social media research grow without barriers. Social media sites become primary DIY sampling and data collection tools.
Power to the People
Co-creative design communities replace traditional market research. These are either open (and massive) or closed and proprietary. Project directors become community managers and engagement becomes the core concern.
From Value to Values
Corporations move beyond basic product attributes toward competition on values and purpose.
Tribal Rituals
The experience economy plus urban tribes equals a future in which market research designs appealing rituals for consumer segments around products.
Epidemiology
Peer-to-peer communications dramatically reduces the impact of advertising. Market research adjusts by creating, testing and refining ―memes‖ (self-replicating ideas that are sticky, selfish and easily shared) that are used to sell product. Viral communications IS marketing in this future.
Technology Driven Futures Definition Geo-timed Feedback
Survey research transitions to ―just in time, just in place‖, as smart phones and geo-location services create a large market for short, time and place triggered surveys.
Rapid In-Market Experimentation
Traditional concept and product testing research is replaced by RIMEing. Needs are identified in proprietary design communities, products are ―tested‖ via predictive markets, and then launched online rapidly.
Iterative Insight Streaming
IIS replaces ―four focus groups and a survey‖ with a flexible, evolutionary design that is built on many data sources and a retainer based engagement with the client.
Portal Power
All key consumer data is integrated on a single online interface. The portal becomes the most important ―real estate‖ in market research. The portal provider becomes market research’s landlord. Corporate insights departments and CMOs guard these portals jealously.
Let’s Play a Game
Game design and play analysis replaces survey research. The Council of American Simulation Research Organizations is created. Like ―professional focus group respondents‖, ―professional players‖ become a key concern.
Limbic
Neuromarketing becomes the dominant, disruptive force in market research. Neuroscientists lead nextgen firms. The industry grapples with ―free will.‖
Nano-targeting
Nano-targeting replaces micro-targeting as consumer interaction focuses on the ―N of 1‖. Civil libertarians attack ―nannytargeting‖ as Orwellian. Segmentation becomes moot.
19
Economically Driven Futures Definition Dispersive Convergence
―Market research department‖ as a term is used as frequently as ―typing pool‖ as analytical tools and the insights function are dispersed throughout a corporation . This is the very opposite of the ―portal power‖ scenario.
Lilliput
Traditional, large research suppliers struggle against nextgen upstarts, DIY tools, and management consulting convergence.
E-Agency
Market research firms are replaced by individual e-lancers. Market researchers are hired based on their online competency scores at honestly.com or by their ―whuffie‖ rating on future reputational currency sites.
Global Depth
Large, global suppliers dominate. If you don’t have ethnographers on the streets of Sao Paolo, Mumbai, Shenzhen and Los Angeles don’t answer the RFP.
Need for Speed
Research buyers expect rapid, real-time insights. No more waiting on the quarterly tracker. Research teams are globally distributed to work the 24 hour global clock.
Space Invaders
As traditional barriers to entry fall, marketers focus less on product categories and more on ―mental market spaces‖ like ―safety‖, ―rejuvenation‖, etc. Volvo begins competing the ―safety‖ market space across a range of products.
Anticipation
ACS (Anticipatory Customer Strategies) replaces ―market research‖ as MR firms focus on becoming strategic foresight organizations. Trendwatchers, predictive markets, and Delphi panels proliferate. SDS (Scenario Dependent Strategy) is the new norm as futures are mapped in three dimensions (likelihood, attractiveness and ease of execution).
20
NextGen Insights Firms Will o Make the leap from the Asking to the Observing Era o Master ―listening‖
o Build insight communities (MROCs) o Pull insights from multiple data streams o Transition from projects to consultative retainers
o Strengthen their global capacities and build ethnographic capacity at a global level for the global middle class o Harness mobile research o Develop foresight capacity o Leverage 24-7 global clock
21
The best way to predict the future is to make it.
22