Southern Africa’s Energy demand and supply scenario

Text by Martin Chemhere

For some years, SADC has been trying to balance the complex mix of energy supply and demand. Despite the region’s rich natural resources, the growth in demand has remained unprecedented, with South Africa and Zimbabwe being the two most affected.

The region’s governments had for some time believed that the rehabilitation of power stations is the solution to solving the energy challenges, however the coming in of renewable energy has changed their stance. They now see the promotion of renewable energy sources in particular solar, wind, and hydro that the region has in abundance, as having the potential to significantly improve the energy shortages.

Predictions are that the region could produce up to 40,000 MW of electricity, taking into account the completion of the Inga Hydroelectric Project under development in DRC.

The formation in 2015 of SADC Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (SACREE) has added much hope and also helped to accelerate renewable energy adoption across the region. The Namibia based centre drives renewable energy development in the region, creates regional renewable energy and energy efficiency markets, knowledge sharing and technical thought leadership, investment promotion, capacity development, policy and regulation development as well as technology cooperation. Experts say that by 2030, the region’s renewable energy mix would be at least 35 percent provided there is an increase in its adoption across countries.

The linking up of all SADC member states onto the SAPP power grid has been suggested as one of the ways towards easing energy shortages. The SAPP Pool Plan of 2017, shows the major power generation projects under planning and commissioned. The plan is driven by key projects of regional significance.

The plan states that the region has either completed or is yet to commission major projects including Camambe II (Angola) commissioned in 2017 and which generates 700 MW, with electricity generated from this project exported.

This project will enable Angola to experience rapid demand growth resulting in net imports by 2040. The second hydropower project for Angola is Lauca (Angola), commissioned in 2017 and generating 2,004 MW, followed by Caculo Cabaça (Angola) generating 2,160 MW in 2022.

Batoka (between Zambia and Zimbabwe) whose completion and commissioning has been delayed, will generate 2,400 MW when finally completed and on stream. When fully operational Zambia will be able to absorb the capacity from through rapid growth, while Zimbabwe will potentially become an exporter. Zambia and Zimbabwe are also jointly planning the development of the Devil’s Gorge, which will contribute a further 1,200 MW to the national grids of the two countries by 2025.

Commissioning of Mozambique’s Mphanda Nkuwa, with 1,500 MW capacity, will scheduled for 2025. This will be a key project, together with the ongoing discoveries and investments in gas and coal, and will make Mozambique a major exporter.

Another hydro plant expected to come on stream in 2026, is yet another Mozambican project, the Cahora Bassa North Bank, with 1,245 MW generation capacity.

The biggest single generation complex is at Inga in DRC, where 11,654 MW of new capacity is to be installed by 2040. This massive project will make DRC a major electricity exporter.

Tanzania will have Stiegler’s Gorge commissioned by 2025 and generating 1,048 MW in its early years of development till 2039. By then hydro will complement Tanzania’s big investments in gas and coal.

“When Mphanda Nkuwa is added in 2028, the(Sociedade Nacional de Transporte) STE project in Mozambique will have to be in place. The existing Mozambican Transmission Company (MOTRACO) system linking South Africa and the southern part of the grid in Mozambique along with the existing direct current link from Songo to Apollo and also the link from Songo to Zimbabwe would provide adequate capacity for trade with other SAPP members for some time once the STE backbone grid is in place.

The STE grid therefore provides additional capacity for regional trade. The largest hydropower project by far is Inga, which is also the most remote from the centres of demand that it has the potential to serve.

The development of Inga therefore needs to be supported by major transmission line projects,” said the SAPP plan.