Dods european 2014 elections guide by Stuart Colley

Practical guide to the European 2014 elections  Procedure  New provisions of the Treaty of Lisbon  Influence of national and international contexts  The European Parliament’s elections under preparation  Key dates  Preparation by European political parties  Reorganisation of the European Parliament after the elections  Formation of political groups  Committees’ membership and election of committees’ bureau  The new European Commission (2014-2019)  Rumour has it…  Policy developments: what happens to unfinished business of the 7th legislature?  Annexes  Summary of potential candidates for top institutional positions  Timeline pre-elections  Timeline post-elections

I/ Procedure New provisions of the Treaty of Lisbon 2014 will be the first time the Treaty of Lisbon is fully implemented for the designation of the members of the European institutions. For the nomination of the European Commission and its president, the Treaty of Lisbon introduced two major changes (article 17 (7) of the Treaty on European Union). First, it clearly states that the results of the European Parliament elections have to be taken into account by the European Council when it proposes a candidate. Second, it specifies that the president of the Commission is to be “elected” by the Parliament with an absolute majority. Originally, the treaty called for a reduction of the number of commissioners, going from one per MemberState to two thirds of the number of Member States (i.e. 18 at the time). However, the European Council decided to maintain the ‘one-per-country’ rule, notably in order to obtain the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty by Ireland. Regarding the election of the Members of the European Parliament (MEP), the treaty does not impose a single procedure: elections remain national but have to follow a proportional system. The treaty did however redefine the number of MEPs per country; for the 8th legislature, the Council and the EP agreed on the following distribution of seats: Dods EU Monitoring | EU 2014 Elections

Table 1: Number of seats at the European Parliament for each MemberState MS 2013 no. of seats

MS 2013 no. of seats 2014 no. of seats 2014 no. of seats

Since this new procedure has never been tested, several elements remain open to interpretation and some details will be forged by practice. For instance, the treaty does not specify how the results of the European elections should be taken into account. European federalists and the major EU parties promote a ‘quasi’ parliamentary system where European political parties should nominate their candidate for Commission President, Once the results are known, the leaders of the political groups in the EP will discuss and finally propose name(s) to the European Council for the position of Commission’s president; this person will need to have the support of a majority of MEPs and be agreeable to the major political groups. For more details, see the speech of Commissioner Viviane Reding or the report of MEP Andrew Duff. Yet the treaty clearly states that it is the European Council that proposes the president of the Commission, to be elected by the Parliament. Therefore, MemberStates and the Parliament have to agree beforehand and it is difficult to foresee which actor(s) will be most influential. Commissioner Viviane Redingsuggested that Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, could act as a “go-between” and a facilitator1.

Influence of national and international contexts International and national contexts are likely to influence the nominations. First of all, the results of the German elections on September 22nd 2013 are crucial to the balance of power in the EU, not only because of Mrs Merkel’s re-election but also because of the historic score the Christian-democrats obtained in Germany, combined with the low percentages obtained by the socialists and by the liberals who failed to reach the 5% threshold."CDU and CSU will remain a key driving force within the EPP Group in the European Parliament, and Europe at large," said Joseph Daul, president of the European People’s Party (EPP) group in the European Parliament.Even though the Eurosceptic partyjust failed to get into Parliament, the good results obtained in less than a year since their birth means that it is likely this party will obtain seats at the European Parliament since the threshold is 3% instead of 5%. Several national elections will be held before May 2014 and they can provide clues regarding the mood of the European electorate. On the other hand, many voters in the EU view the European Parliament elections as an apparently cost-free opportunity to register dissatisfaction with their 1

The Declaration 11 to the Treaty (here, p. 344) states that the newly elected European Parliament should be consulted on the candidate Member States wish to propose. Format and procedure of this consultation have been left up to the institutions.

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national governments. Thus, even if the current solid centre-right majority persists in the European Council, a swing to the centre-left in the Parliament is conceivable. Furthermore, the nomination of the new secretary general to the United Nations and to NATO should be considered, since usually these nominations aim to strike a global geographical balance. As regards internal EU nominations at top jobs, the position of Mario Draghi as president of the ECB may prevent other Italians from being offered top-level positions. Similarly, the presidents of the Commission, the Parliament and the European Council as well as the post of High representative are likely to be occupied by personalities representing the diversity of Europe, in geographical terms but also in term of gender and political allegiance.

II/ European Parliament’s elections under preparation Key dates As regards the work of the European Parliament, three milestones should be kept in mind: - 14-17 April 2014: last plenary of the 7th legislature - 22-25 May 2014: European elections.No result should be divulged before the end of the election process in all EU countries. - 01-04 July 2014: first plenary of the 8th legislature Table 2: Day of European elections in each MemberState Voting day

Countries

22 May 2014

NL, UK

23 May 2014

CZ (1st day), IE

24 May 2014

CY, CZ (2nd day), FR (overseas regions), IT (1st day), LV, MT, SK

25 May 2014

AT, BE, BG, DE, DK, EE, EL, ES, FI, FR, IT (2nd day), LI, LU, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI

Preparation by European political parties Having announced that they will present a leading candidate for the Commission’s presidency and that this candidate will campaign in the EU’s 28 Member States, the four major European political parties have set an ambitious target. The challenge is that European political parties gather members from different countries with different political sensitivities. For instance, the Swedish socialists are in general more sceptical about EU integration than German socialists, while the French socialists have always been divided on this issue. Similarly, Polish ChristianDemocrats are much more conservative than the French members of the European People’s Party (EPP). In this context, drafting a common European program that can appeal to all party members and even all EU citizens across borders is a complex task. Hence, the common manifestos of the EU Dods EU Monitoring | EU 2014 Elections

parties are unlikely to be published before the first months of 2014. It is also likely that these programs will leave some margin for manoeuver to adjust to national contexts or nationally grounded issues. The same challenge exists for the designation/election of the leading candidate of each party. However, we can expect all political parties to produce a common manifesto and announce their candidate for the Commission presidency, chosen according to internally-defined procedures, before March 2014. This seems likely for practical reasons (to campaign in all 28 Member States) but also because the EPP announced an official launch of the campaign on March 6-7. Thus it can be assumed that other political groupings will align their timeline with this. European People’s Party The leaders of the EPP, who met in Vienna on June 20 2013 for a Summit of heads of state and government, discussed the preparations for the 2014 electoral campaign and decided that the EPP will launch its European campaign at itsDublin Congresson6-7 March 2014. In addition to the EPP Summit, a meeting of Secretary Generals of EPP member parties took place in order to coordinate actions between the EU-level and national campaigns for the 2014 European elections. The declaration on “New Growth and Jobs in Europe” is likely to be a basis for the EPP’s common manifesto. On August 31st 2013, Wilfired Martens, the EPP’s president, was admitted to hospital and talks have started as regards his successor. The availability of a top political position in the EPP may serve as a consolation prize in the negotiations over the leading candidate for the European Commission’s presidency. Party of European Socialists At the end of 2011, the Party of European Socialists (PES) decided on the following indicative timelineto ensure both public awareness of the candidate and the efficiency of the campaign:  1 October 2013 – Opening of nominations: candidacies, letters of nomination and support should be sent to the PES secretariat.  October 2013 – Leaders’ Conference.  31 October 2013 – Close of nominations  1st week of November 2013 – PES presidency meeting to check candidacies and set up electoral committee. Candidacies are made public  1 December 2013 to 31 January 2014 – Internal selection procedure within each full member Party and organisation  February 2014 – The PES will convene an extraordinary Congress to ratify the election of the candidate and to vote upon the Manifesto. In June 2013, the PES adopted its Fundamental Programme, defining its priorities for the upcoming decade. The manifesto for the 2014 elections will strongly draw on the principles set down in this document. The leading members of the PES have also stressed their intention to strongly involve socialist activists in the campaign for 2014. Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party The Liberals should adopt the common manifesto at their Congress in London on November 29-30 2013. On this occasion, they also plan to open the procedure to officially designate their leading candidate for the European Commission’s presidency. M. Watson, president of the ALDE party, has already declared that he is not interested in the position. Dods EU Monitoring | EU 2014 Elections

Nominations should be ready for December 19th 2013, before the European Council. The Liberals said that if several candidates were interested in the position, an internal election would take place in February 2014 during a special political meeting. European Green Party Green party leaders from all over the EU agreed on common rules for the upcoming Green Primary. Earlier this summer, the European Green Party(EGP) announced its third common campaign, with an innovative open online primary to select its leading candidates for the 2014 European elections. Member Parties can nominate candidates between September 4 and October 20. Candidates must acquire the support of at least four and a maximum of eight of the 33 EGP Member Parties from the EU. All EU parties have the right to support one candidate. Between November and the end of January 2014, everyone living in the EU above the age of 16 who shares Green values will be eligible to participate. Through an online process, they will directly choose the two leading Green candidates who will serve as the heart and face of the campaign across the EU. For a summary of the timeframe and main milestones, see the pre-election timeline.

III/ Reorganisation of the EP after the elections Formation of political groups Groups’ formation will take place during June 2014. Each MEP will decide to formally become a member of a political group and each group will elect its bureau and president. As a reminder, a political group in the EP needs to be composed ofat least 25 membersand represent one quarter of EU Member States (i.e. 7 at present). We expect some current political groups to reform easily such as the EPP (Christian-Democrats), the S&D (socialists), the ALDE (liberals) and the Greens, probably allying with the European Free Alliance (independents) again. For the other groups, their constitution may depend on the overall results of the elections. In 2009, several extreme-right MEPs could not form a group since they failed to meet the nationality requirement. If the polls are correct and if the EU 2014 elections see a rise in the votes for populist and extremist parties (more information), this situation may change for the 8th legislature.

Committees’ membership and election of committees’ bureau After the elections, the bureau of the European Parliament (president, vice-presidents and quaestors) will have to be elected. This will take place during the first plenary session on July 1-3. The president and vice-president should be elected with an absolute majority, i.e. at least 376 votes. According to the Parliament’s rules of procedure, the European Parliament shall set up its standing committees and define its powers. During the month of June 2014, each MEP will express its committee preferences to his/her political group and each political group will make a single proposal to the conference of presidents. Taking into account the numerical strength of each political group and each committee, the Conference of presidents will make a single proposal to the plenary session. The decision of committee membership happens twice per term: during the first plenary Dods EU Monitoring | EU 2014 Elections

session of the Parliament following its re-election, and again two-and-a-half years after. Special committees can be set up at any time on a proposal from the Conference of presidents, defining composition, term of office and powers of these special committees. Between July 7th and July 22nd, committees will meet for the first time and elect their own bureau (president and vice presidents). For a summary of the timeframe and main milestones, see the post-election timeline.

IV/ The new European Commission (2014-2019) The European Parliament elections were originally due to take place in June 2014, but it has been movedforward to May with the idea of approving the new head of the Commission before the 2014 Summer break.Once the president of the next Commission is elected, he/she will propose his/her team of commissioners to the European Parliament. European Parliament standing committees will organise an audition of the commissioner-candidate responsible for their policy area(s). It is difficult to predict the composition of the next European Commission before the results of the European elections in May 2014. Furthermore, the evolution of the economic and unemployment situation in Europe will have an impact on EU citizens and their votes. National elections scheduled in Belgium, Hungary, Austria, the Czech Republic and Luxembourg will also have a crucial influence on the overall political balance in Europe since Socialists are expected to emerge in Austria and the Czech Republic. Moreover, early elections could also occur between now and next spring, with governments at risk in Italy, Slovenia, Poland and Portugal; this could undermine the centre-right dominance in Europe. Some lessons can be drawn front the past in terms of the voting behaviour of MEPs for the election of the Commission’s president. In 2009, Portuguese and Spanish from across the political spectrum supported Barroso because he represented the South of Europe, disregarding that he was a centreright politician. Therefore it is difficult to anticipate how MEPs will vote in the end, no matter whose party they belong to or their leading candidate. Mr Barroso has been heading the European Commission for 10 years and is expected to step back since it is rumoured he will run for the position of NATO Secretary General. However, he is not the only one aspiring to this position (e.g. Franco Frattini, former Italian foreign minister and EU Commissioner, is also a candidate). If he were unsuccessful, European media suggest he could obtain a third mandate.

Rumour has it … Several names have been mentioned to succeed to Mr Barroso. Likewise, other EU top jobs including the president of the European Council or the High Representative for Foreign Affairs will also be open for succession since both Herman van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton declared they will not seek another mandate. Among social-democrats, Martin Schulz is an almost-certain candidate for the Commission presidency. However, the re-election of Mrs Merkel and the very high score obtained by the CDU may be an obstacle for Schulz since Germany might be reluctant to support a centre-left candidate. Moreover, even if Mrs. Merkel were minded to pick Mr. Schulz, would other leaders, worried about a “German Europe”, allow a German to run the Commission? Nevertheless, a possible ‘Grand Coalition’ Dods EU Monitoring | EU 2014 Elections

deal between the SPD and the CDU/CSU could include the nomination of Schulz for German commissioner/president of the Commission. Other names on the centre-left side include: HelleThorning-Schmidt, the Danish Prime Minister, José Luis Zapatero, the former Spanish Prime Minister, and Pascal Lamy, the Director-General of the WTO, who may be a good candidate for France. For the centre-rightEPP, Donald Tusk, current Polish Prime minister, remains the “most serious candidate”. Tusk has established a good working relationship with Merkel, has committed to taking Poland into the euro zone and has won plaudits for the prudent way his government has used EU development funds. However, Poland is still outside the Eurozone and Tusk’s command of English may be insufficient to handle political discussions at a high level. Besides, Mr Tusk declared, ahead of the Polish legislative elections in 2015: "I decided that I want to remain Polish prime minister and that until 2015 I will engage only in domestic issues”. Another potential candidate for the EPP is current CommissionerMichel Barnier. He is rumoured to seek an EU top job, preferably the Commission’s presidency but he is said to be also interested in High Representative or even president of the European Parliament since he is likely to lead one of the centre-right lists in one of the 8 French constituencies. However Michel Barnier is facing strong competition from Viviane Reding. During the plenary of the European Parliament in February 2013, she even attended the EPP’s group meeting which strongly underlines her ambitions. Yet some EPP members think the candidate should have been head of state or government in their countries. Therefore the names of Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Swedish Prime Minister, and ofDalia Grybauskaitė, the Lithuanian President, have been mentioned. Christine Lagarde, former French minister and current Director of the IMF has also been mentioned. Lagarde would represent the best chance of an effective counter-balance to the North European conviction that austerity alone is the cure for the Eurozone’s ills. But it is likely that she will not get the support of the French government since she was a member of president Sarkozy’s government. The Liberals could propose Guy Verhofstadt, the former Belgian PM and current leader of the Liberal group in the European Parliament, who seems to be a natural candidate. Yet, he has opponents inside the liberal ranks and he may pursue other European objectives. Opponents of Verhofstadt argue that name-dropping at such early stage may be counter-productive. They also say that the candidate likely to be elected should have few enemies, implying that the outspoken Verhofstadt is already out of the race. FoghRasmussen, former Danish prime minister and current NATO secretary general, was also mentioned. Yet the current Danish government is a coalition of socialist parties and would probably not nominate Rasmussen, a liberal. Olli Rehn, the European Commission's vice president in charge of economic and monetary affairs, has told the Finnish press that he may run to head the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) group’s list in European elections. Despite his good record as EU Commissioner (for enlargement and then economic affairs), Rehn is seen as a top austerity preacher and is facing competition in Finland with the current Finnish Prime Minister JyrkiKatainen who is said to seek EPP’s investiture to lead the European Commission. The Greens are holding an online primary throughout the EU in order to elect a gender-balanced duo to lead the Green lists. The names of José Bové, Rebecca Harms and MichèleRivasi seem to be popular enough to win this primary. As regards the post of European Council president, few have openly volunteered for the job until now. FoghRassmussen may be interested, but it appeared during the previous negotiations in 2009

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that EU Member States would favour a candidate from a Eurozone country (while Denmark in not currently in the Eurozone). As regards the position of High Representative, interest in the post have arisen from various personalities. Rasmussen is said to be targeting this position if he was unable to get another top EU job. RadoslawSikorski, Polish minister for Foreign Affairs, is a potential candidate; however, he may replace Ban-Ki Moon as secretary general of the United Nations since the next incumbent is likely to be an Eastern European. Moreover, Sikorski is likely to be opposed by the UK given his pro-EU integration mindset. Other potential candidates include Sweden’s Carl Bildt, Finland’s Alexander Stubb or Bulgaria's KristalinaGeorgieva, who has impressed many as the EU's humanitarian aid Commissioner. In April, Finnish Prime Minister JyrkiKatainenaddressed the European Parliament pleading for the new concept of “fair integration”. Many MEPs saw his speech as a jockeying exercise for one of the EU's top jobs. Under David Cameron, Britain has found itself outside of the central decision making process and it is thus difficult to imagine a Briton been chosen for any senior EU position after 2014 other than single market, competition or trade commissioner. HelleThorning-Schmidt is currently so unpopular as prime minster that she herself is rumoured to be interested in the role of EU Commissioner. Sylvio Berlusconi, who was recently condemned in Italy and is consequently prohibited to run for office in several countries, is said to consider running for European elections as an MEP in Estonia, where his condemnation does not apply. But what may happen is that the election results, combined with the alchemical effect of the appointments process itself, will eliminate early front-runners and give previously unlikely nominees a new veneer of credibility. For more information, read this article or follow this link.

V/ Policy developments: what happens to the unfinished business of the 7th legislature? At the end of the last plenary session before the elections (mid April 2014), the European Parliament's unfinished business (no matter the procedure or its stage) shall be deemed to have lapsed, according to its rules of procedure (rule 214). At the beginning of the new parliamentary term, the Conference of Presidents shall take a decision on reasoned requests from parliamentary committees and other institutions to resume or continue the consideration of such matters.These provisions shall not apply to petitions and communications that do not require a decision. The Conference of Presidents traditionally decides to resume all unfinished legislative business. Exceptions may be made, for example, where a renewed consultation by the Council and/or Commission is expected.

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In cases where the committee has adopted its report before the elections, it will almost certainly be placed on the plenary agenda before the end of parliamentary term. Accelerated procedures (such as rule 138) are often applied in the last plenary to ensure that all finished committee business can be approved before the election recess. In the very exceptional case that a report has been adopted by a committee but not in plenary before the elections, the procedure set out in Rule 214 would have to be applied. In this exceptional case, the "rapporteur" would normally be maintained, given that he/she was a MEP when the report was tabled. However, the committee may decide that the report is to be taken over by another member of the newly appointed committee. In most cases, the committee chairman becomes rapporteur in such cases. If the work in committee was not finished and if the Conference of Presidents decides that work may resume, all work done until then remains valid − including the appointment of rapporteurs and draftsmen of opinions and any texts produced by the committee during the term of office of the outgoing Parliament. If the rapporteur (or any of the draftsmen) is not re-elected, the committee will appoint a replacement in accordance with the procedures set out in the Rules for that purpose. The replacement will, in virtually all cases, be a member of the same political group. Unfinished business of a non-legislative nature is usually allowed to lapse. In this regard, the Conference of Presidents fixes a deadline for the start of all work on non-legislative files in order to ensure that the business can be concluded before the 2014 elections (this deadline has already expired for the current parliamentary term). It is still possible for the Conference of Presidents to grant an extension of this deadline under exceptional and duly motivated circumstances. Before doing so, it usually requires an assurance that work can indeed be completed before the elections. For more information, see the press release on unfinished business after the 2009 elections. The European Commission has the power to withdraw any proposal currently on the table, no matter the procedure’s stage, and the European Parliament may ask it to do so. However, the European Commission also has an agenda and wants to see some legislation adopted before the elections. Following the State of the European Union address of president Barroso on September 11 2013, the following proposals have been identified as key priorities:        

MFF and the programs for 2014-2020 Banking union and financial regulation (proposals on Bank Resolution and Recovery, theSingle Resolution Mechanism, Single Market Act II proposals) “Connected Continent” proposals European Prosecutor’s Office Tobacco Product Directive Implementation of the European Semester process TTIP and preparation of key international negotiations (e.g. post 2015 development agenda, climate change) Proposals aimed at promoting a business-friendly environment for SMEs

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Annexes  Summary of potential candidates for top institutional positions  Timeline pre-elections  Timeline post-elections

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Summary of potential candidates for top institutional positions

Candidates for the Commission’s presidency, as proposed by European political parties ↑ Martin Schulz (PES, DE) HelleThorning-Schmidt (PES, DK) José Luis Zapatero (PES, ES) Pascal Lamy (PES, FR) ↑ Viviane Reding (EPP, LU) Donald Tsuk (EPP, PL) Michel Barnier (EPP, FR) Fredrik Reinfeldt (EPP, SE) Dalia Grybauskaitė (EPP, LI) JyrkiKatainen (EPP, FI) ↓ Christine Lagarde (EPP, FR)

Candidates for European Council President Fogh Rasmussen ( DK)

Candidate for High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Fogh Rasmussen ( DK) RadoslawSikorski (PL) Carl Bildt (SE) Alexander Stubb (FI) KristalinaGeorgieva (BG) Michel Barnier (FR)

↑ Olli Rehn (ALDE, FI) Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE, BE) Fogh Rasmussen (ALDE, DK) ↑ José Bové (EGP, FR) Rebecca Harms (EGP, DE) Michèle Rivasi (EGP, FR)

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Timeline pre-elections

6-7/3: launch of the campaign (Dublin)

EPP

Oct.: nomination for LC

PES

4/9-20/10: applications to be LC

February: special meeting (election of LC if needed)

19/12: deadline for nomination of LC*

29-30/11: manifesto

ALDE

Greens

22-25/05: Elections

14-17/4: last plenary

European Parliament

February: election ratification and vote of manifesto

Dec-Jan: internal selection of LC

Nov-Jan: online primary

AECR

Party of the European Left

13-15/12: Congress in Madrid

September 2013

*LC: Leading candidate

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

Timeline post-elections

End of July Aim for the election of the new EC president

European Commission

European Parliament

1-4/7 First plenary: committees’ membership and election of the EP’s bureau and quaestors

June Formation of political groups

22-25/05 Elections

7-24/7 First committee meetings, election of committees’ bureau

May 2014

June 2014

31/10 Barroso II end of mandate

July 2014

September/October Audition of commissioners in competent committees

August 2014 | September 2014

October 2014

November 2014

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