METHODOLOGY

This edition of the Submarine Telecoms Cable Industry Report was meticulously crafted by the analysts at Submarine Telecoms Forum, Inc., who also provide in-depth analysis for SubTel Forum’s Submarine Cable Almanac, online and print Cable Maps, and Industry Newsfeed.

For this report, we employed a multi-faceted approach that combines interviews with industry leaders and data from our proprietary Submarine Cable Database, which has been continuously updated since its inception in 2013. The database now tracks over 500 current and planned domestic and international cable systems. Queries can be made by various parameters including client, year, project, region, system length, capacity, landing points, data centers, owners, installers, system cost, upgrade status, and more.

The Submarine Cable Database is maintained by a dedicated team and powered by MySQL. Maps are produced with ArcGIS Pro, in the same visual style as the Submarine Cables of the World print map. All data visualizations such as charts are now created in Power BI which is connected in real-time to our Submarine Cable Database, ensuring that the most current data is always reflected in our visual representations.

Line graph projections in the report are performed using the Power BI forecast function. This function employs advanced statistical algorithms, specifically the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) algorithm, to pre- dict future data points based on historical trends. The ETS algorithm accounts for seasonality, trends, and noise in the data, providing a more accurate and reliable forecast. This allows us to offer a well-grounded projection of future market conditions, enhancing the report’s value for strategic decision-making.

In terms of data gathering, SubTel Forum engages in continuous efforts throughout the year, sourcing information from public, commercial, and scientific sources. Data assimilation is conducted in parallel with these efforts to provide the most accurate market projections.

For capacity growth, we employ two different methods for determining the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The first calculates a CAGR for a specific period, while the second uses a rolling two-year CAGR to minimize extreme variances and provide a useful year-to-year comparison. Due to adjusted FCC reporting requirements since 2019, modeling has been used to approximate capacity growth, applying average growth rates from 2015-2018 for projections into 2019 and beyond.

For unrepeatered systems, we apply a maximum cable length of 250km, with exceptions made for systems that have been publicly announced as unrepeated. Trending is accomplished using known data, with linear growth estimates for subsequent years, and line graph projections are now performed using the Power BI forecast model. This model uses established time-series algorithms to predict future values based on historical data, providing a reliable basis for our projections.

Regarding system cost, when publicly announced information is not available, we apply a standardized formula of $25,000 USD per kilometer of cable, offering a rough estimate based on industry averages.

While every care is taken in the preparation of this report, these are our best estimates based on the information provided and discussed in this industry. STF

KIERAN CLARK is the Lead Analyst for SubTel Forum. He originally joined SubTel Forum in 2013 as a Broadcast Technician to provide support for live event video streaming. He has 6+ years of live production experience and has worked alongside some of the premier organizations in video web streaming. In 2014, Kieran was promoted to Analyst and is currently responsible for the research and maintenance that supports the Submarine Cable Database. In 2016, he was promoted to Lead Analyst and his analysis is featured in almost the entire array of Subtel Forum Publications.

SYEDA HUMERA, a graduate from JNTUH and Central Michigan University, holds a Bachelor’s degree in Electronics and Communication Science and a Master’s degree in Computer Science. She has practical experience as a Software Developer at ALM Software Solutions, India, where she honed her skills in MLflow, JavaScript, GCP, Docker, DevOps, and more. Her expertise includes Data Visualization, Scikit-Learn, Databases, Ansible, Data Analytics, AI, and Programming. Having completed her Master’s degree, Humera is now poised to apply her comprehensive skills and knowledge in the field of computer science.