STF ANALYTICS

ANALYTICS

BY REBECCA SPENCE

Welcome back to the latest addition of SubTel Forum’s annual Regional System issue. This month we are focusing on high-capacity cables and how they are influencing capacity demands around the globe. In this analytics article we will give a quick overview of capacity amounts stand to date as well as a quick look at the capacity of the next several years of planned systems. The data used for this article has been collected in the SubTel Forum Cable Database from the public domain.

THE NUMBERS AT PRESENT

In the last 5 years, the majority of new systems were implemented in AustralAsia, with a total of 36 percent of new systems accomplished in the region. Though close in percentage, EMEA has seen the second most significant increase with 24 percent of new systems, and the Americas received another 23 percent. (Figure 1) With a lull in 2019 and 2021, the Transpacific region has seen less overall activity but that has already changed for an upward trend with the addition of Southern Cross NEXT and multiple other Transpacific cables being implemented in 2022.

With relation to the amount of kilometers that have been installed, the last five years saw an average of 54.5 thousand kilometers globally per year. 2017 saw the most cable put into the water with a little shy of 111 thousand kilometers, and 2018 with 78 thousand kilometers. The amount of cable laid decreased over 50 percent in 2019 to only 35 thousand kilometers but surprisingly began slowly rising again during the pandemic. In 2020 almost 44 thousand kilometers were installed and another 54 thousand were implemented in 2021. Historically this ebb and flow is very typical in the submarine cable industry and is likely continue in the future. (Figure 2)

While the number of kilometers installed has dropped during the past three years, Figure 1 indicates that the average number of new systems implemented in that same time frame has stayed consistent. On average 18 systems a year have been put into service over the last five years. What is coming Based on reported data for planned systems 43 percent of all new systems will take place in EMEA and Austral Asia. This comes as no surprise with the digital transformation that is happening in various parts of Africa. Systems like 2Africa, Equiano, and the West Africa Cable are bringing significant amounts of capacity to the region and data centers have begun to step up to help spread the capacity throughout the continent.

Another 42 percent of growth will occur in the Americas, Indian Ocean, and Transpacific. As mentioned earlier in this article, several Transatlantic systems are scheduled to be in service in the next year bringing route diversity to a previously slow growing market.

Globally, capacity will more than double its current rates in the coming 5 years. While EMEA will increase 150 percent, the region projected to see the most capacity growth over the next 5 years is actually the Polar region which is projected to increase its capacity 400 percent.

Overall the high capacity systems that are coming down the pipeline will have siginificant affects on the industry as a whole. After surviving the pandemic and doing so in a positive manner, we can only hope the infustry will continue the upward trends seen in capacity and cable system growth. STF

REBECCA SPENCE is the Project Manager from Submarine Telecoms Forum. Rebecca possessed more than 10 years’ experience as an analyst and database manager, including for the small business division of prominent government contractor, General Dynamics IT. She is a regular contributor to SubTel Forum Magazine and is based out of Hillsborough, North Carolina USA.