EDITORIAL COMMENT
IT’S TIME TO
CHANGE COURSE
A
fter 28 years of democracy, South Africa is an unviable society with unemployment rates of 77.4 per cent for youths, 51.5 per cent for Africans, 55.6 per cent for African females and 54.5 per cent in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo provinces. There are now 12.5 million unemployed people. The unemployment rate for people of all races is 46.6 per cent. South Africa’s unemployment crisis is a national disgrace, the most heartbreaking betrayal of the dreams and promises of our liberation. In April and May 2021, 10 million people and 3 million children went hungry. And women were more likely to shield children from hunger, according to a recent survey. Between 1994 and 2020, South Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita increased by only 16.1 per cent. By comparison, Malaysia’s GDP per capita increased by 654.1 per cent in local currency over the same period. If such statistics do not provide evidence of the mismanagement of the economy since 1994, consider that the International Monetary Fund has forecast GDP growth of 1.5 per cent a year between 2022 and 2026. On this trajectory, the unemployment rate will increase to more than 50 per cent. Poverty and inequality will continue to increase. South Africa is facing a dystopian future until 2030. Repeat episodes of political and social unrest and instability could turn the country into an economic wasteland. The time has come to change direction and chart a new course towards economic development until 2030 and beyond.
4
South Africa needs a new macroeconomic policy framework, which has an annual six per cent GDP growth target that is binding on National Treasury and the Reserve Bank. There must be a national discussion about how to achieve this target and start reversing the crises of unemployment, poverty and inequality.
IN THIS ISSUE
This relaunched edition of African Leader includes three contributions on what should be done to get the economy growing at this rate. Asghar Adelzadeh and Pali Lehohla outline three scenarios for the economy until 2030. The nayi le walk scenario takes the country to six per cent GDP growth. Busi Mavuso, the CEO of Business Leadership South Africa, writes that the priorities should be to achieve a stable supply of energy and roll out a R1-trillion infrastructure programme. Feminist economist Busi Sibeko says the most important issue is to ditch the neoliberal economic policies of the past 28 years, which are to blame for the country’s slow growth. I call for a Basic Income Grant to address the immediate humanitarian crisis and provide a first stimulus to the economy. Mcebisi Ndletyana pens an analysis of the local government elections, and Monde Ndlovu analyses the challenges facing the Black Management Forum over the next 45 years. Duma Gqubule Editor
BMF president: Andile Nomlala Deputy president: Esethu Mancothwa BMF editorial team: Acting managing director: Philippe Bakahoukoutela Head of communications, marketing and events: Khulukazi Mtebele Head of advocacy and thought leadership: Monde Ndlovu Address: The Eric Mafuna House, 12 Summer Street, Rivonia, Sandton, Gauteng, 2196 www.bmfonline.co.za
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AFRICAN LEADER ISSUE 56 | MARCH 2022
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