Spies, Weather Balloon or UFO, Occam’s Razor, and an Eclipse

By Greg Smith

What is Occam’s Razor? It is a logical thought process that basically says, “Whatever is the simplest answer is most likely the right one.” It means that “other things being equal, simpler explanations are generally better than more complex one. Complex explanations get harder and harder to prove the more complex they get.

A weather balloon is a simpler answer than a spy balloon, unless you find evidence to the contrary, and a UFO (alien craft) is way harder to prove than a spy or weather balloon, unless there is incontestable evidence to back it up. An extreme conclusion takes extreme evidence to prove the extreme conclusion. It has been simplified to a phrase of, “When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras.”

For example, the meteor/comet theory that ended the dinosaurs took an extreme amount of geological physical evidence gathered from all over the world to convince the scientific world that a meteor/comet was the cause of the end of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.

To quickly say that what is at first identified as a UFO is an alien spacecraft rather than a weather balloon is to jump to a complex conclusion with no evidence. So, let’s go with the weather balloon answer, till we have incontestable evidence to the contrary.

The big green comet that zipped by us did not live up to the expectations of being a naked eye comet. What a surprise, most comets do not live up to the hype the scientific media and regular media promise. The last comet to live up to the hype was Comet Neowise in