Oil
2017 August, SweetcrudeReports
12
Flowing traffic in Lagos, Nigeria
Transportation sector to dominate world’s oil demand by 2040 OPEOLUWANI AKINTAYO
T
he transportation sector will eat up most of the world’s oil by 2040, accounting for an outstanding 44 percent of the demand, fresh data obtained by SweetcrudeReports has shown. According to data by World Oil Outlook, WOO, most of the oil consumed today and in the future will be by the road transportation sector. In 2015, the sector's demand totaled 41.6 million barrels per day, mb/d, which represented 45% of the overall demand. Demand is expected to continue increasing and reach 47.8 mb/d in 2040. The relative weight of the sector in global demand is expected to remain roughly constant in the medium-term, before assuming a slow downward trend. By 2040, the road transportation sector will represent 44% of total demand. The ‘other industry’ sector, which primarily includes iron and steel, glass and cement production, construction and mining, is the second biggest contributor to oil demand. In 2015, sectorial demand reached 12.6 mb/d, representing 14% of total demand. As the world moves towards a more service oriented economy, future sectorial demand will grow at a slower pace than overall global demand.
In fact, the petrochemicals sector takes over as the second most important source of demand towards the end of the medium-term. In 2015, demand in this sector accounted for 11.9 mb/d and, by 2040, it is expected that it will reach 15.5 mb/d, according to the report. The fourth sector in terms of oil d e m a n d i s t h e residential/commercial/agricult ure sector. In 2015, it accounted for 11% of total demand. In the future, it is expected that this share will remain roughly constant. By 2040, sectorial demand will reach 12 mb/d. Demand in the aviation sector, which totaled 5.8 mb/d in 2015, is expected to grow at healthy rates so the share that this sector represents in terms of total demand will increase from 6% to 8%. Demand in the marine bunkers sector and rail and domestic waterways is also expected to increase. In contrast, demand in the electricity generation sector is set to remain approximately constant in the medium-term at around 5.3 mb/d, before declining in the long-term. Over one-third (6.2mb/d) of the total demand increase of 16.4 mb/d between 2015 and 2040 comes from the road transportation sector. Strong growth is also foreseen in the petrochemicals sector (3.4 mb/d) with OPEC, Other Asia, China and India accounting for most of the growth.
Demand in the aviation sector, which totaled 5.8 mb/d in 2015, is expected to grow at healthy rates, so the share that this sector represents in terms of total demand will increase from 6% to 8%.
In Developing countries, demand in 2015 totaled 16.6 mb/d with China and OPEC accounting for a significant share. In Eurasia, 2 mb/d were consumed in the road transportation sector last year. Gasoline, including ethanol, was the most consumed product in this sector at 23.6 mb/d in 2015. Gasoil/diesel, including biodiesel, follows with 17.1 mb/d. Finally, the use of LPG as fuel in the road transportation sector is rather marginal. In 2015, it represented only 2% of the total sectorial demand, WOO said.
Shell, Chevron, CNOOC Limited pay Nigeria over $6bn in 2016 CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 CNOOC Limited, paid Nigeria’s state owned company, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, $157.11 million for royalties, and $1.69 million in fees. The company also paid the Nigeria Petroleum Exchange, NiPex, a fee of $1.32 million, Nigeria Export Supervision Scheme, NESS, a fee of $ 2.13 million, paid the Nigeria Delta Development Commission, NDDC, $3.29 million in fees, and the Federal Inland Revenue
Service, FIRS, a $49 million in taxes. and $1.95 billion in royalties. For OML 130 it paid $34.86 million for taxes, $1.95 billion for royalties and $296 million for fees. CNOOC said it also paid for OML 138 $14 million for taxes, $15 million for royalties and $36 million in fees. Total amount paid by CNOOC in 2016 to the government of Nigeria sed to $1.07 billion. On the part of Chevron, it paid the Nigerian Export Supervision Scheme $5.39 million in fees, the Niger
Delta Development Commission $83.51 million also in fees, Department of Petroleum Resources, DPR, royalties amounting to $275 million and $2.42 million in fees. Chevron also paid the FIRS fees of $654.8 million in 2016. For OML127/128 it paid $439.98 million in taxes and $41.21 million in fees. It also paid for Niger Delta Concessions, a sum of $214.81 million in taxes, $275.94 million in royalties and $111,607 in fees. Total money Chevron paid in 2016 is $1.71 billion.