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Discussion about Climate change Danilo Bertocchi
IMCZ, Park Hotel - Zug April 4, 2013
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Climate change: facts and figures • • • • • •
Climate change is a dynamic and natural process. exponential demographic growth => Net growth/year: + 60 millions / year More human activity => more Greenhouse gas emissions Volume of GHG emissions is impacting greenhouse effect and global warming global warming is impacting the rate of climate change. Paul R. Ehrlich: “a free choice is leading the civilisation to end. We need urgently global Regulations to be respected” • Greenland melting: 2x Alps Glaciers every year • http://youtu.be/9YWX7ChjtxY
July 1, 2012 July 11, 2012
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U
e report
ding the
World oil production forecast swiss coaching partners
Central forecast results: End of production plateau: 2014 Oil production World wide energy consumption World oil production capacity in 2014: & 86 Mb/d
ties
Worldwide Energy Use by Energy Type, 1970 – 2025 250 Quadrillion Btu
HISTORY
NEW PROJECTIONS
200 150
Oil
100 Coal
Natural Gas
50 0
Renewables Nuclear
1970
1980
1990
2002
Source: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005)
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2015
2025
Own Research
I M P L E M E N T I N G
N E W
I D E A S
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CO2 emissions, concentration & global warming China USA OECD Europe
Global warming (source: Revue Science March 8, 2013
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration, 1000-2012
Parts Per Million by Volume
450 400 350 300 250 1000
Source: NOAA ESRL; Worldwatch
1200
1400
1600
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2000
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impact of climate change • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Cold days, cold nights and frost less frequent over land areas Very likely More frequent hot days and nights Very likely Heat waves more frequent over most land areas Likely Increased incidence of extreme high sea level Likely Global area affected by drought has increased Likely in some regions Increase in intense tropical cyclone activity Likely in some regions Contraction of snow cover areas Virtually certain increased thaw in permafrost regions Virtually certain decrease in sea ice extent Virtually certain Increased frequency of hot extremes Very likely to occur Increased frequency of heat waves Very likely to occur Increased frequency of heavy precipitation Very likely to occur Precipitation increases in high latitudes Very likely to occur Precipitation decreases in subtropical land regions Very likely to occur Decreased water resources in semi-arid (Western USA, Mediterranean, etc..) High confidence
Boundaries
Climate Change Acidification of oceans
Safe region
Strat. Ozon depletion
Nitrogen cycle
Biodiversity loss
Phosphorus cycle Land use changes
Freshwater use
Rockström et al. Nature 2009
ASPO 20120530 | BOKU Centre for Global Change and Sustainability
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Impact of climate change: huge financial costs • • • • • •
damages on infrastructure => massive infrastructures investments requirements => costs & taxes massive increase => military expenses (means add. pollution) => energy and food supply => immigration channeling
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Global solutions 1. Vision / Talent / good tools 2. demography stabilization 3. Green deserts & reverse climate change (Allan Savory Ted Talk Feb 2013) 4. Globalization as an opportunity 5. Long term planning 6. Willingness to reconsider core values 7. Support women education & family planning 8. build a multi sources energy supply system 9. Tax shiing from labor to energy (without additional tax!) 10. ecological consciousness & spirit increase
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Local solutions: what can we do at our level? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
Set up extra financial risk rating in your business Thing about energy use purchase more sustainable eat more organic & local invest more responsible & sustainable (5 years with 5% yield?) decrease chemical impact on a daily level use and promote democratic structures support diversity
• Thank you very much for your attention! • Do you have questions? Discusssion Organic and biodynamic beer brewed during full moon.
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