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THE NEW FACE OF THE CHIP WAR Page
THE NEW FACE OF THE CHIP WAR
EDA is the emerging software that is changing the world, chip by chip.
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Electronic Design Automation (EDA) combines hardware, software and services aimed at one goal -designing and manufacturing advanced semiconductors that are impossible to make without it.
The EDA manufacturing industry began about 40 years ago, and since then, EDA has delivered about a ten-million-fold increase in design productivity. And with the current prevalent use of semiconductors for AI, fully autonomous cars, the Internet of Things and more, EDA must deliver more productivity than ever before.
WHAT IS EDA?
In today’s day and age, advanced semiconductors contain multiple chips with billions of technologies packed into one tiny form factor. With each passing year, the chip industry leaders must follow Moore’s law which states that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit (IC) doubles every two years. Since the working of the form factor must be flawless while meeting demanding power goals and performance timings on extremely tight schedules, there is no way to do this without the support of EDA to aid design and manufacturing.
There is also a need for pre-verified building blocks to reduce design time. Architectural analysis, simulation, verification, physical design, semiconductor IP- a reusable unit of logic, cell, or chip layout design, and application software development are all enabled by EDA. Not surprisingly, EDA has become the prime driver in improving efficiency and accelerating technological progress as the complexity of chip design continues to rise.
REFIGURING THE CHIP ECOSYSTEM
Modern chips have millions of gates, and billions of transistors as each gate consists of thousands of transistors. To design a chip is to figure out how to make it do what you want.
EDA is the system-of-chips (SoC) that makes chip creation possible. It has different tools for different kinds of chips. Designers start with a plethora of options to optimize performance and cost. The end-to-end journey of chip creation traverses from early specs to a robust end product. There are multiple building blocks to the formation of a chip, but no one person or company can do it alone.
The concept of the design flow becomes essential to design a chip that functions appropriately, which comprises the steps needed to create a chip, which is then fed into the EDA software for the computer to follow. Each function in the design flow is run by a tool or a set of tools. The flow begins with a logic design which decides its purpose and how it functions. After this, the software system goes on to the verification process, which is run multiple times to avoid errors. Verification is one of the most crucial parts of the design process, taking up to 70 per cent of the time needed to create the chip. The next step of the process comprises de-
sign implementation again, but in the physical sense- it includes information on how the transistors are placed and connected. EDA also plays a significant role in the manufacturing process of chips.
The embedded software, semiconductor manufacturing, and increasingly micro-mechanical and photonics industries—all of which are continuing to be miniaturised and integrated into electronic systems—are closely tied to the EDA sector.
While the semiconductor sector still makes up the majority of users of electronic design automation software, the introduction of various trends related to the digital revolution has opened up a much wider market for IC and complicated PCB design. Technologies like 5G telecommunication, machine learning, cloud computing, edge computing, and cybersecurity have emerged as essential elements of strategic roadmaps across all businesses. The market for EDA electronics software is being driven by this increased demand on semiconductor and high-tech electronics vendors to innovate. The global market for EDA tools, estimated at US$9.1 Billion in the year 2020, is projected to reach a revised size of US$14.9 Billion by 2026. Once the EDA industry chained foundation problems, the entire IC industry (Integrated circuit) will be significantly affected.
The EDA industry is also the most vulnerable to crucial areas of foreign players. In addition, EDA also plays a pivotal role in slashing the costs of design and chip manufacturing. In some cases, EDA has helped reduce the manufacturing time from 24 months to about two weeks!!
The chip industry has become the new face of the tech war between two global tech giants – China and the United States of America. But China is unlikely to be affected by the decision of the United States to restrict the export of EDA software in the short term because chip foundries in China are not advanced enough to make the GAAFET chip structure. However, in the long run, it could prove to be disastrous as they could fall behind in the great semiconductor race, which critics say is already lagging by about eight years.
However, China will likely remain among the fastest growing in this cluster of regional markets. Led by countries such as Australia, India, and South Korea, the market in Asia-Pacific is forecast to reach US$774.6 Million by the year 2026.
CHALLENGES TO EDA ECOSYSTEM
With the exponential growth of the semiconductor industry in the coming years, the challenges that the industry faces are also ever increasing.
As the design of the chips get larger and more complex, data management and complexity pose a huge threat to the EDA ecosystem. In addition, with the EDA ecosystem spanning multiple geographies, collateral and the environment of design becomes a larger problem. To stay ahead of the game while maintaining margins, reusing of IP has also become a key driving force in the EDA game. Among another deterrent to the growth of the EDA could be its limited customer base, as the major consumers are the large semiconductor industries and due to acquisitions within the company, it has a bleak future.
A BRAVE NEW WORLD
Assessment
The growth of the global market is set to be driven by the strong performance of the semiconductor industry and increasing adoption across diverse industry verticals. EDA tools will continue to drive the innovation for building smaller and more powerful chips at a lesser cost. Mastery of EDA will lead to primacy in the high-tech contest. From current trends, the U.S. appears to be holding the lead.
Within the technology market, the EDA market may be small. But it would do well for relatively minor players, like India, to seize fleeting opportunities and become a key player in product development.
A LASTING CURE?
A bionic pancreas could turn out to be the ultimate silver bullet for diabetes.
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According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), about 422 million people worldwide have diabetes, the majority living in low-and middle-income countries, and 1.5 million deaths are directly attributed to diabetes each year.
Around a century after the discovery of the life-changing drug insulin, the ever-increasing tribe of diabetics can breathe a sigh of relief as a novel discovery suggests light at the end of the tunnel. Scientists claim that by replacing the pancreas with a bionic one, the balanced production of insulin in the human body could be restored.
Although there are many types of diabetes, type 1 diabetes is distinct from type 2 diabetes which is far more prevalent. The latter primarily affects and is frequently linked to obesity. Type 1 diabetes is most commonly diagnosed in childhood and is brought on by an immune system response that targets the body’s cells that make insulin in the wrong way. Synthetic insulin is required for the survival of type 1 diabetics. To reduce the chances of long-term problems such as nerve damage, renal failure, and heart disease, they must strive to maintain their blood sugar levels within a specified range. Traditionally, this entails measuring their blood sugar several times daily with “finger sticks” and administering the appropriate insulin dosage.
HI-TECH CURES One of the most promising areas of the bionic pancreas is real-time feedback between insulin transport and glucose levels, thereby mimicking the function of the missing β-cells. Studies discovered that type 1 diabetic adults and children who used the bionic pancreas for three months showed a decrease in their average blood sugar levels without a rise in potentially harmful blood sugar lows.
With the rapid advancement of technology, novel quick and long-acting insulin analogues and more physiological insulin-delivery devices, such as intelligent insulin pumps, are increasingly in use. Subcutaneous continuous sensors, which give frequent, real-time, and minimally invasive glucose tests, are becoming more widely available as glucose monitoring advances. Through the integration of an insulin pump and continuous glucose monitoring, sensor-augmented pump therapy improves convenience.
Despite these developments, the best practices for managing glucose control are still insufficient. The incidence of severe hypoglycaemia in patients receiving sensor-augmented pump therapy is comparable to that in patients receiving conventional treatment, which cannot be avoided.
The treatments available for diabetes have significantly evolved since the invention of insulin in the 1920s. Since then, the technology has evolved to include many technologies that span the medical landscape of insulin injections, Bluetooth-enabled EpiPen and the latest on the scene, the bionic pancreas.
A few wearable gadgets have been created over time to simplify the process: One among them is a “pump” that continuously distributes insulin via a tiny tube just beneath the skin. The continuous glucose monitor, a device that checks
blood sugar levels via a sensor inserted under the skin, provides an alternative to finger sticks. However, it has drawbacks, as it does not mitigate severe hypoglycaemia.
Much more progress has been made during the last few years thanks to the acceptance of several hybrid closed-loop systems. The recent discovery of the “bionic pancreas” could potentially mitigate the challenges that people with diabetes face daily, giving them a shot at a semblance of normal life.
THE BIONIC PANCREAS
The Bionic Pancreas currently under development can be thought of as an insulin pump and continuous glucose monitor (CGM) rolled into one. It works as an automated insulin delivery system based on a closedloop system for continuous feedback and monitoring. One of the most promising areas of the bionic pancreas is real-time feedback between insulin transport and glucose levels, thereby mimicking the function of the missing β-cells. Studies discovered that type 1 diabetic adults and children who used the bionic pancreas for three months showed a decrease in their average blood sugar levels without a rise in potentially harmful blood sugar lows.
The iLet Bionic Pancreas device is being examined by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for commercial distribution on the global market. If authorized, it would be the most automated type 1 diabetes management system on the market, monitoring blood sugar levels and dispensing insulin with little intervention from patients.
Users of the bionic pancreas do not need to keep track of their carbohydrate intake or administer insulin dosages to lower blood sugar levels, making it the first of its kind. Additionally, healthcare professionals are not required to modify the gadget settings routinely. One of the main takeaways of this technology could be that patients will have minimal involvement with their disease and how it affects their lives and how they function.
However, technology does not come without limitations. The unstable nature of glucagon formulations could require daily filling of the glucagon reservoir. Changing the glucagon reservoir daily should no longer be necessary, thanks to stable formulations and analogues of glucagon that have been created. However, it is unknown how much the cost of treatment will rise due to using glucagon.
A BOOMING MARKET
The outbreak of COVID-19 is estimated to contribute to the market growth in the times to come. However, disturbed logistics and changed equation in international trading have significantly affected the business growth. According to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), over 537 million adults are living with diabetes across the globe in 2021.This figure is predicted to rise to 643 million by 2030 and 783 million by 2045. In 2021, around 6.7 million deaths were due to diabetes. Thus, owing to the large base of the diabetic population and increasing diabetes prevalence, the demand for CTT systems is likely to boost during the forecast period.
The artificial pancreas market on a global scale is ever-growing. The market was valued at USD 207.27 million in 2021 and has been expected to expand at an annual rate of about 18.9% from 2022-2030.
Moreover, the market is poised to open up leeway for the bionic organ market and providing much needed attention on the life-saving bionic organ industry.
Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor is inserted under the skin to continuously measure glucose concentrations in the patient’s cells CGM receiver displays the updated readings as graphs and trends minute-byminute. and translates the readings from USB to Bluetooth
The CAD communicates with a body-worn insulin pump that automatically administers the correct insulin dose via a cannula inserted under the skin
Readings are sent to a control algorithm device (CAD) - where an algorithm analyses them and calculates the correct insulin dose, if required
Assessment
Financial institutions must work in tandem with the medical industry to educate healthcare professionals and incorporate the impact of new technologies in hybrid healthcare for faster, widespread adoption.
One of the main limitations of studies on this technology is that they have mostly included majority populations without significant health disparities. It is to be seen whether their challenges are generalizable to minority populations. Specific obstacles may go beyond barriers to technology use related to market prices, accessibility and prescription bias.
To determine the long-term advantages and hazards of automated glycaemic management using a bihormonal bionic pancreas, a fully integrated device should be tested in larger studies that last for extended periods.
HAVE ARCTIC BATTLE LINES BEEN DRAWN?
As relations between Russia and the West head South, the resource-rich Arctic is emerging as the next battle space.
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The Arctic has been growing in importance over the last decade. The change has been largely propelled by the reduction of its permanent ice cover due to climate change. These changes have not gone unnoticed by countries keeping an eagle eye on the reputed vast riches of the ‘dead, frozen north.’ It is not only those countries that comprise the Arctic Council (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and United States-India has observer status) and already have a toehold in the continent, but also powers far off who fear being left behind in the ‘Race for the Arctic.’
The economic rivalry has historically given rise to military contestations.
Recently, the first shot was fired by Russia in June when it accused the U.S. and NATO of carrying out a “vast military build-up in the Arctic” and warned that it “will not stay silent.” Russia was talking about NATO’s “Exercise Cold Response’ in which over 28 member countries participated with about 40,000 soldiers.
Senior Russian military officials claim that U.S. and NATO military exercises in the Arctic have doubled since 2015 with at least nine exercises of various sizes conducted in 2022 itself. Russia fears, with some justification, that once Nordic Sweden and Finland join the military alliance, NATO’s grip on the Arctic will only grow stronger. This has prompted Russia to come up with an ambitious military development plan for 2030, which includes seven air bases with one specifically designed for operating seaplanes.
Canada, with one of the largest stakes in the Arctic, signalled to Russia in August when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg jointly visited a NATO military outpost at Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, located above the Arctic Circle. The radar installation was part of the Cold War Distant Early Warning line, which formed the forwardmost terrestrial trip wire of the North American Air Defence Command (NORAD) against surprise Soviet missile attacks.
Once the Arctic ice cover melts significantly, Cambridge Bay will become an important link in the Northwest Passage between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Mr Trudeau announced an investment of over US $3.8 billion over the next six years to modernise NORAD, lying in disuse since the 1990s. Both Stoltenberg and Trudeau blamed Russia for making the Arctic a zone for military competition by ‘reopening hundreds of Soviet-era military bases, using the
As per U.S. Geological Survey figures, the Arctic Ocean stores over 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. And this is a conservative estimate! Once the Arctic ice cover melts significantly, Cambridge Bay will become an important link in the Northwest Passage between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
EMERGING AS A STRATEGIC HOTSPOT
The causes for increasing geopolitical interest in the Arctic are not far to seek. Professor Peter Harrison of the University of Washington, in a 2009 article ‘Cooling down Arctic Rhetoric’ warned of the Arctic going from being totally ignored to becoming a flashpoint. The reason, he put, was simple, “The Arctic is heating up.” As per scientists, the summer ice cover was reduced to 3.4 million square miles in the 2000s, which was 50 per cent below the average in the 1980s and 1990s.
As per U.S. Geological Survey figures, the Arctic Ocean stores over 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. And this is a conservative estimate! Even better, shorter and therefore more economical sea routes will open between the North and the South, promising immense economic benefits to its littorals-Canada, the U.S., Russia, Norway and Denmark / Greenland. Journey time will be cut down by almost 40 per cent to some destinations in Asia, as compared to the Suez Canal route.
THE ARCTIC PREMIER LEAGUE
While there are many players in the Arctic Great Game, the most ambitious, aggressive and potent are the U.S., Russia and China. Their geopolitical rivalry manifests in the cold vastness of the North with the same intensity that we see in the Pacific or in the European heartland.
The U.S. constituted its National Strategy for the Arctic in 2013, which lays down the priorities for the next decade. Eyeing the fabled energy riches of the North to fulfil its energy needs for the 21st century and beyond, the U.S. is determined to keep its freedom of navigation “through, under and over the airspace and waters of the Arctic to support lawful commerce” and “evolve Arctic infrastructure and capabilities, including ice-capable platforms.”
For the first time after the end of the Cold War, the U.S. military is turning the focus back on its defensive perimeter based upon the Arctic Circle. It includes other NATO members like the Thule Air Base in Denmark/ Greenland, as well as basing its nuclear-armed B1 bomber fleet in Norway’s Orland air base.
Hobbled by a lack of resources to match the U.S. in infrastructure development in
the Arctic, Russia intends to use its proximity and centuries of experience of living and surviving in the frozen tundra to its advantage. First and foremost, Russia is determined to use its military power to secure its claims on the Arctic, which would encompass the military, border and coast guards. Russia has repeatedly issued warnings that “an active development on the Arctic Shelf will inevitably lead to a conflict of interests between countries which may go beyond diplomatic means.”
In its Arctic Policy, Russia has proclaimed that its Arctic territories will be the driving force of its economy in the immediate future once climate change facilitates its exploitation. The Russians are even willing to secure this objective with military force if need be.
Russia’s Yakutia Republic is of special interest as it extends deep into the Arctic Circle. Diminishing permanent ice cover has opened the way to immense geological bounties (cobalt, tin, and rare earth) in the seabed along its shores. Nodules hold special promise as their contents are being used in almost all modern devices. Two decades back, waters around Yakutia were not navigable because of permanent ice cover; today, they are free of ice for four months, a window that is expanding with every passing year.
Within the Arctic Council itself, there are many conflicting claims and counterclaims. The U.S. disputes the Canadian extension over the seabed and the mythical Northwest Passage (in whose search many intrepid explorers died in the 19th Century) and also their respective maritime boundaries in the Beaufort Sea. Denmark and Canada have disputes over territories in the Lincoln Sea.
China, an outlier with no direct link to the Arctic, is also ready to pit its wealth and diplomatic firepower in the Arctic race. In 2010, China claimed equal rights to the members of the Arctic Council, stating that “the Arctic belongs to all people around the globe as no nation has sovereignty over it.” To wiggle into a position of advantage in the Great Arctic Game, China has been investing in local companies to generate goodwill and support, building powerful icebreaker ships and setting up research stations.
A GLOBAL COMMONS?
For long, the Arctic, along with the Antarctic, was universally accepted as a ‘global commons,’ to be protected from exploitation by the Arctic
Council. The fear now is that the
Council members themselves, either individually or in collusion, are eyeing its resources exclusively for their benefit.
However, there is a major difference between the Arctic and the Antarctic. As per Professor Peter Harrison, “the Antarctic is a continent covered in ice, surrounded
by the ocean, and is uninhabited. The Arctic, however, is an ocean covered in ice, surrounded by land masses which are part of sovereign states.” Justifying Canadian sovereignty over ‘Canadian Arctic’, Professor Harrison says, “For Canada (Arctic) is not terra incognita, and that our Arctic regions have been inhabited successfully for millennia by the Inuit and Arctic Athabaskan peoples. Assessment
It will not be easy to get the Arctic declared as a “global commons” because, as mentioned earlier, the Arctic Council members already have a significant footprint within the Arctic Circle which they are in no hurry to relinquish.
However, at the same time, this is not the early 15th Century where one plants one’s flag and the territory becomes your sovereign property. There are many conflicting interests in the Arctic which will not allow a single entity or a group of nations to gain control over its riches. But let no nation forget that accelerating the ice melt in the Arctic through increased commercial activities and transhipment of marine traffic will be detrimental to the future of the entire planet.
The Northwest passage or the Arctic Route, as they open for traffic year around, should be managed under existing regimes of the International Maritime Organisation for the benefit of all trading countries.
It has been equally necessary to note that the Canadian Arctic is part of Canada and is subject to all the laws and regulations of the land – in other words, it is governed.”
In March, India released its Arctic Policy. The policy, with a theme of ‘building a partnership for sustainable development’, looks at the Arctic from the perspective of science and research, climate change, economic resources and connectivity for global trade. So far, India’s intrusions into the Arctic are confined to scientific research as the ice melt in the Arctic gives a keyhole view to Indian scientists dealing with the melt of Himalayan glaciers. So far, India has sent 13 expeditions to the Arctic.
An ice-free Arctic has two important implications. First, it will expose vast regions of seabed that are rich in natural resources, making extraction of these resources possible. It is estimated that about 30 per cent of undiscovered gas and 13 per cent of undiscovered oil can be found in the marine areas north of the Arctic Circle. According to the USGS estimates, Arctic region has the hydrocarbon reserves of 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.32 Second, an ice-free Arctic will open previously impassable shipping lanes, thereby, improving prospects for Arctic navigation. The most promising route, historically known as the “Northwest Passage” may become navigable, which would reduce the length of the voyage between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by an astonishing 9000 kilometers.’’
NO VICTORS, NO LOSERS
The battle indicators of a new Cold War are there for everyone to see, but can the world afford it?
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The battle lines have once again been drawn, not only in Europe but also across the globe. This was made very clear during the NATO summit 2022 held in Madrid. NATO’s Strategic Concept 2022, while identifying Russia as the most significant and direct threat to European security, also named China as a potential adversary for the first time in NATO history.
That these security apprehensions were not confined to the European theatre alone was evident in the presence of some non-NATO attendees like Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand-all close allies of the West. This, too, was a first for any NATO summit and invoked rumours of an “Indo-Pacific NATO” against China. India was the only Quadrilateral Dialogue or Quad member to have been left out.
In any case, the AUKUS (Australia, U.S. and UK) military alliance to project nuclear-powered submarines into the Pacific has already made the AUKUS an adjunct of NATO.
NATO 2.0
The era of low-budget defence outlays, small militaries, and general neglect of the security sector in preference to economic growth seems to be ending. NATO is in the process of the most extensive overhaul of its collective defence architecture.
Sweden, a long-time neutral nation, and Finland, which has more than once proved its skill fighting under Arctic conditions, will soon be full-fledged members of NATO. They bring cutting-edge weaponry, high-quality manpower and financial might to strengthen NATO.
NATO has decided to enhance its high readiness forces from the eight multinational battle groups and its pre-positioned stockpiles of equipment and weapons to meet any Russian threat in Europe. So far there has been no mention of pre-positioned stockpiles in the Indo-Pacific against the Chinese, but these could, in a contingency, dip into existing U.S. logistic stocks. The U.S. would be pleased to note that despite many years of urging, it took Ukraine to compel rich European nations like Germany to make their defence budget at least 2 percent of the GDP by 2024, as mandated by the NATO charter.
Ukraine has been a wake-up call for NATO, and it has served to streamline NATO procedures for sustaining an under-attack ally with weapons, ammunition, equipment and training. For a multinational alliance like NATO, whose members are differently sized in economy size, military force and capacity, the Ukraine crisis has generated a measure of confidence that when push comes to shove, NATO members will deliver to its members under Article 5 of NATO charter. Sadly, such confidence also makes NATO more aggressive.
CONTOURS OF AN EMERGING WORLD ORDER
Contrary to popular belief, Ukraine alone is not the causative factor for the new Cold War; it may be the trigger, but the confrontation has been building up for the last few years.
Since the early 1980s, the U.S. has been wooing China as a responsible stakeholder to maintain global stability. However, there has been a generational change with both major powers indulging in, as an American official once said, “a bipartisan policy of unrelenting confrontation.”
The Chinese have not been sitting idle either; they are indulging in their own brand of muscle flexing. They have a strategic foothold in the Solomon Islands with military undertones, apart from their naval bases in the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean through Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan. China’s launch of the Global Security Initiative (GSI) is being seen as an effort to counter the various security groupings created by the U.S in the Indo-Pacific. GSI is meant to counter the ‘hegemonism, power politics, and bloc confrontation,’ of the U.S. Through GSI, China has stated the goal of ‘indivisible security.’
China would like Russia to be on board the GSI (albeit as a junior partner), which is a distinct possibility under the existing geopolitical circumstances. China would like the GSI to cover perhaps the Philippines and, if possible, Vietnam. Any such congregation would have the blessings and eager participation of Pyongyang. Pakistan would be caught in the horns of a dilemma as any overt participation in a Beijing-led military alliance would expose its collapsing economy to the wrath of Western donors. Iran, which will soon become a permanent member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, would also be a potential candidate for GSI. In sum, the group could then boast four nuclear-armed states and one on the threshold of being nuclearized.
On the European heartland, Russia stands almost alone with only Belarus as a significant ally while most of its erstwhile Warsaw Pact allies have deserted in droves to the opposing camp. Alone, it may be, but Russia is neither cowed down nor apologetic under Putin. It has displayed its intentions to raise the stakes and use its massive nuclear arsenal to make the strategic equation tilt in its favour.On the margins of the evolving faceoff are emerging powers like India, Brazil, and South Africa, who cannot be ignored as they, too, can tilt the balance in a closely contested competition. Sensing a growing threat due to its historical enmity with China, Japan is quickly shedding its post-World War II pacifist cloak and refurbishing its military.
A new ‘Iron Curtain’ is now being drawn, starting from the Sea of Azov, through the Black Sea and stretching to the Taiwan Straits, to the Solomon Islands in South Pacific and Humbanthota and Gwadar in the Indian Ocean. And this time, things will not be ‘black or white, ‘ like in the ‘old’ Cold War. The stark ideological divide between a ‘benign liberal west’ and an ‘ axis of evil’ represented by the Communist Kremlin has been blurred in a globalized world. Many big and small countries are no longer willing to buy into the Western narrative of a ‘global fight for freedom’ to define the new Cold War. Large swathes of Asia, Africa and even Europe depend upon China for their prosperity and China, unlike the USSR, is not an economically hollow superpower.
Pigeonholing Beijing as an adversary is not easy. For one, Beijing is an equal and a more complex participant, with the West heavily dependent upon its supply chains. Then, there is a distinct lack of unanimity and unease within the bloc, as many members, including France, Germany and Italy, enjoy a lucrative commercial partnership with the Dragon. Even globally, not everyone considers China as something inimical to their national interests or regional stability.
More importantly, the current obsession of American policymakers with China could be a ‘China Trap’. Trying to beat China at every level-technology, economy, diplomacy, sports etc- should not subsume other important facets of U.S. foreign policy. As mentioned earlier, the rest of the global community has no blind obeisance to the ‘American way of seeing China’. If nations like India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and even South Korea or Japan are forced to declare their loyalty to one side or another, it could further reduce American influence around the world, especially at a time when it is at its historic low.
As Jessica Chen Weiss writes for the Foreign Affairs Magazine in a recent article, “In attempting to craft a national strategy suited to a more assertive and more powerful China, Washington has struggled to define success, or even a steady state, short of total victory or total defeat, that both governments could eventually accept and at a cost that citizens, businesses, and other stakeholders would be willing to bear.”
Assessment
The first Cold War emerged gradually due to the bipolar nature of the global power structure post World War II. This time around, in a multipolar, interconnected, market-oriented world, we are again helplessly watching as nationalistic jingoism, economic competitiveness, and the hunger for global primacy are driving us back into antagonism on a global scale. While Washington, Beijing and Moscow have stridently denied inciting the new Cold War, the fact is that their leaders have resigned to its inevitability. The world is walking into the ‘Thucydides Trap’ with its eyes wide open.
The Chinese point of view is not helping matters when it sees its rise to global pre-eminence as its rightful place denied unfairly for over two centuries. Having given up its ‘strategic humility’ professed so vehemently during Deng Xiaoping’s reign, China now entertains a deeply entrenched sense of injustice against ‘foreign forces trying to thwart its rise.’
Where will this approach lead the world? A more fractious and combative globe saddled with constant crises, instability, geopolitical blackmails and an increasing number of flashpoints where proxy fighting will escalate? Mankind can ill afford the risk of a nuclear Armageddon, a calamity that all had hoped had been put to rest for good when the Berlin Wall went down.
