EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Access to opportunity drives regional competitiveness and prosperity. In fact, recent research by the University of South Florida’s Muma College of Business (published in the annual E-Insights Report) demonstrates that availability of transit positively impacts employment, gross regional product, household earnings, and economic mobility.

Yet with respect to transit connectivity to jobs, Tampa Bay has historically fallen short of the mark; a landmark 2011 Brookings analysis examining the largest regions in the nation ranked the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) just 93rd out of 100.

But the tide could be turning, as across Tampa Bay – and specifically in the core area composed of Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties – multiple transit projects have been envisioned and several key improvements are poised for near-term implementation.

This research, underpinned by work conducted by the renowned Accessibility Observatory at the University of Minnesota, shows how these transit improvements (using several potential scenarios) could positively impact job access for Tampa Bay residents. Researchers compared transit coverage and frequency to location-based data for workers and jobs in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The difference between the number of jobs accessible under each scenario, and the number of jobs accessible in the baseline of current transit service, is the primary unit of analysis and performance outlined in this report.

This research differentiates itself from more typical analyses conducted in conjunction with transit planning in several ways, but most importantly in that it takes a system-wide approach across multiple operators, treating the region as a market rather than a collection of individual communities.

Additionally, this work provides alternate criteria for project phasing and return on investment, going beyond ridership, reduction in vehicle miles traveled, environmental benefits and other typical planning metrics. This research identifies the extent to which transit improvements can impact the accessibility of jobs, and by extension the host of positive outcomes associated with employment.

This research, underpinned by work conducted by the renowned Accessibility Observatory at the University of Minnesota, shows how these transit improvements (using several potential scenarios) could positively impact job access for Tampa Bay residents.