Opinion Poll 2014 A Barometer Report Prepared for: TASC Prepared by: Martha Fanning
November 2014 J.5968 Confidential
Introduction ●
Market research was required to measure attitudes to income distribution amongst a nationally representative sample of adults.
●
An agreed set of questions were included in the late October wave of Behaviour & Attitudes’ twice monthly face-to-face Omnibus survey, Barometer.
●
Barometer is a nationally representative survey of 1,000 adults aged 16+.
●
Quotas are set on gender, age, social class and region to ensure that the results correctly reflect the known demographics of the Republic of Ireland.
●
Interviewing is conducted by our fully trained and supervised team of interviewers at 63 locations across the country.
●
Fieldwork was conducted 27th October – 5th November, 2014.
2 Confidential
Results
Fairness of Income Distribution: Overview All Adults 16+: 1006
2008 Very fairly distributed
2009 1
3
1 11
14 Quite fairly distributed
1 16
26 39
39
Quite unfairly distributed
2014
2010
45
85%
36
87%
83%
70% 46 Very unfairly distributed
48
46
25
83% feel income in Ireland is unfairly distributed.
Q.1a
Confidential
Which of these statements best describes how you feel income in Ireland is distributed?
4
Fairness of Income Distribution x Gender/Age All Adults 16+: 1006 GENDER Base:
AGE
Total
Male
Female
U25
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+
1006
483
523
152
206
277
138
2
2
1
233
14
15
16
35
39
32
Very fairly distributed
1
Quite fairly distributed
16
Quite unfairly distributed
36
Very unfairly distributed
46
2 19
34
45
1
14
22
38 32
47
43
49
45
1
2 17
41
50
40
Demographics are fairly steady: men and under 25s marginally more likely than average to think income is fairly distributed. Q.1a
Confidential
Which of these statements best describes how you feel income in Ireland is distributed?
5
Fairness of Income Distribution x Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006
CLASS
Base: Very fairly distributed Quite fairly distributed
REGION
Total
ABC1
C2DE
F
Dublin
1006
454
477
75*
285
1
1
2
0
16
19
14
17
Quite unfairly distributed
36
Very unfairly distributed
46
3
288
0
2
14
17
30 43
33
42
55
52 41
254
20
32 40
Leinster Munster Conn/Uls
40
44
39
179
1
14
39
46
* Caution low base
White collar workers and Dubliners are marginally more likely than average to think income is fairly distributed. Q.1a
Confidential
Which of these statements best describes how you feel income in Ireland is distributed?
6
Incomes of Top 10% are 7.5 times greater than those on lowest incomes: Fairness of Income Distribution All Adults 16+: 1006
GENDER Base:
AGE
Total
Male
Female
U25
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+
1006
483
523
152
206
277
233
138
Very fairly distributed Quite fairly distributed
1 11
Quite unfairly distributed
36
34
Very unfairly distributed
52
52
2 13
1 9
2 11
37
35
52
52
1 7
2 13
37 37
55
48
1 12
31
56
1 10
39
50
When informed that incomes of top 10% are 7.5 times greater than those on lowest incomes, the proportion who feel income is unfairly distributed rises from 83% to 88%. Demographic differences are very modest. Q.1b
Confidential
The incomes of the top 10% in Ireland are typically seven and a half times greater than the lowest incomes in Ireland. Which of these statements best describes how you feel income in Ireland is distributed?
7
Incomes of Top 10% are 7.5 times greater than those on lowest incomes: Fairness of Income Distribution All Adults 16+: 1006
CLASS
Very fairly distributed Quite fairly distributed
Quite unfairly distributed
Very unfairly distributed
REGION
Total
ABC1
C2DE
F
Dublin
1006
454
477
75*
285
1 11
2
1 8
36
52
15
32 37
1 6
254
288
1 5
2
16
13
33 46
33
46
49
179
0 9
37 40
60
59
46
2
Leinster Munster Conn/Uls
46
55
The income information appears to have greatest impact on blue collar workers and those living in Rest of Leinster. Q.1b
Confidential
The incomes of the top 10% in Ireland are typically seven and a half times greater than the lowest incomes in Ireland. Which of these statements best describes how you feel income in Ireland is distributed?
8
The Government should take Active Steps to Reduce Gap Between High and Low Earners All Adults 16+: 1006
Base:
2009
2010
2014
956
1010
1006
66
64
26
26
5 2 2
6 4
Strongly agree
60
Agree somewhat
25
Disagree somewhat Strongly disagree Don’t know
10 3 1
2 in 3 strongly agree, and 9 in 10 agree to some extent. Q.2
Confidential
Do you agree or disagree that the government should take active steps to reduce the gap between high and low earners?
9
The Government should take Active Steps to Reduce Gap Between High and Low Earners X Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006
GENDER Total
Male
1006
483
Strongly agree
64
62
Agree somewhat
26
27
6 4
7 5
Base:
Disagree somewhat Strongly disagree
Female 523
66
25 5 4
AGE U25 152
68
25-34 206
68
26
23
3 3
7 2
35-49 277
50-64 233
65+ 138
62
62
60
26
27
31
7 5
5 6
5 4
No real differences by demographics Q.2
Confidential
Do you agree or disagree that the government should take active steps to reduce the gap between high and low earners?
10
The Government should take Active Steps to Reduce Gap Between High and Low Earners X Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006
CLASS
Base:
Strongly agree
Agree somewhat
Disagree somewhat Strongly disagree Don’t know
REGION
Total
ABC1
C2DE
F
Dublin
1006
454
477
75*
285
60
57
64
26 6 4
60
69
27 24
8 5
5 3
32
3 5
Leinster Munster Conn/Uls 254
70
30
288
60
71
30 22
6 7
179
6 2
21 6 4
5 3
* Caution low base
Higher agreement amongst blue collar workers and those living in Rest of Leinster. Q.2
Confidential
Do you agree or disagree that the government should take active steps to reduce the gap between high and low earners?
11
Action Government Should Take to Reduce the Gap Between High & Low Earners X Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006
Base: Increase the minimum wage to raise the incomes of low earners
2010
2014
1010
1006
16 38
Establish a ‘maximum wage’ to cap the amount of money earned by high earners
29 9
A combination of the two approaches (i.e., increasing the earnings of those at the bottom while capping the earnings of those at the top).
Neither of these approaches
49
46
5
7
Looking at actions the government should take to reduce this income gap, support for increasing the minimum wage has increased from 65% to 84%, while support for a maximum wage has decreased from 78% to 55%. Q.3
Confidential
Which, if any, of the following steps do you feel the Government should take to reduce the gap between high and low earners?
12
Action Government Should Take to Reduce the Gap Between High & Low Earners X Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006
TOTAL
Female
U25
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+
1006
483
523
152
206
277
233
138
38
35
34
31
9
11
10
13
42
45
50
50
10
10
6
5
Increase the minimum wage to raise the incomes of low earners
Establish a ‘maximum wage’ to cap the amount of money earned by high earners
AGE
Male
2014 Base:
GENDER
40
49
7
44
35
10
4 6
A combination of the two approaches (i.e., increasing the earnings of those at the bottom while capping the earnings of those at the top).
Neither of these approaches
46
7
43
11
49
4
42
3
Support for increasing the minimum wage is lowest amongst 35-49s, and highest amongst U25s. U35s least in favour of a ‘maximum wage’. Q.3
Confidential
Which, if any, of the following steps do you feel the Government should take to reduce the gap between high and low earners?
13
Action Government Should Take to Reduce the Gap Between High & Low Earners X Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006
TOTAL
Base:
CLASS
REGION
2014
ABC1
C2DE
F
Dublin
1006
454
477
75*
285
Increase the minimum wage to raise the incomes of low earners
38
Establish a ‘maximum wage’ to cap the amount of money earned by high earners
A combination of the two approaches (i.e., increasing the earnings of those at the bottom while capping the earnings of those at the top).
Neither of these approaches
9
46
7
37
7
46
10
38
10
41
33
Leinster Munster Conn/Uls 254
40
288
32 44 9
9 7
12
11
46 47
6
48
41
6
179
12
5
36
8
57
3
* Caution low base
Social class differences are very modest. Regional differences are greater. Q.3
Confidential
Which, if any, of the following steps do you feel the Government should take to reduce the gap between high and low earners?
14
Willingness to Support Higher Taxation All Adults 16+: 1006
High Quality
Provide New or Additional Public Services
Public Services*
Very willing
2010
2014
2014
1010
1006
8
11
11
39
38
20
20
31
31
1006
27 Fairly willing
Fairly unwilling
Very unwilling
25
37
50% now willing to support higher taxes if guaranteed high quality public services; up from 35% in 2010. Regardless of wording or nuances the results show an even split in favour and against higher taxation. Q.4a Q.4b
Confidential
Compared to some other European countries funding for public services in Ireland, such as health, education, social protection and pensions is low. How willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if you were guaranteed that this would result in high quality public services? And how willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if the State guaranteed to provide new or additional public services such as pre school education and social housing?
*Slight wording changes
15
Willingness to Support Higher Taxation in Order to Achieve High Quality Public Services X Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006
GENDER
Base: Very willing
Fairly willing
AGE
Total
Male
Female
U25
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+
1006
483
523
152
206
277
233
138
11
10
11
11
10
11
15
8
32 39
39
38
34
44
40
38
23 Fairly unwilling
20
21
19
Very unwilling
31
30
32
24
27
18
27
18
20
32
32
38
25-34s marginally more willing to support higher taxation. Over 65s least likely to support higher taxation. Q.4a
Confidential
Compared to some other European countries funding for public services in Ireland, such as health, education, social protection and pensions is low. How willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if you were guaranteed that this would result in high quality public services?
16
Willingness to Support Higher Taxation in Order to Achieve High Quality Public Services X Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006
CLASS
Base: Very willing
Fairly willing
Fairly unwilling
Very unwilling
REGION
Total
ABC1
C2DE
F
Dublin
1006
454
477
75*
285
254
11
12
9
10
11
13
36
30
39
20
31
20
20
12
179
5
31 48 21
19 21
20
26
288
35 39
42
Leinster Munster Conn/Uls
17 35
40 28
39
37 23
Blue collar workers reject the notion of higher taxation as do Leinster dwellers and those living in Connacht or Ulster. Q.4a
Confidential
Compared to some other European countries funding for public services in Ireland, such as health, education, social protection and pensions is low. How willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if you were guaranteed that this would result in high quality public services?
17
Willingness to Support Higher Taxation in Order to Provide New or Additional Public Services X Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006
GENDER
Base: Very willing
Fairly willing
AGE
Total
Male
Female
U25
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+
1006
483
523
152
206
277
233
138
11
10
11
12
10
11
38
40
36
16
35
45
38
35
6
35
19 Fairly unwilling
Very unwilling
20
31
20
29
20
24
33
25
19
22
33
32
17
27
40
Support peaks amongst 25-34s and declines gradually after that. Q.4b
Confidential
And how willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if the State guaranteed to provide new or additional public services such as pre school education and social housing?
18
Willingness to Support Higher Taxation in Order to Provide New or Additional Public Services X Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006
CLASS
Base: Very willing
REGION
Total
ABC1
C2DE
F
Dublin
1006
454
477
75*
285
254
12
12
11
13
9
8
Leinster Munster Conn/Uls 288
14
38
39
38
40
33
43
18 Fairly unwilling
20
21 45
Very unwilling
31
26
34
21
18
19 21
4
35
28 Fairly willing
179
27
20 41
38 23
Support weakest in Leinster, Connacht/Ulster and amongst blue collar workers. Q.4b
Confidential
And how willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if the State guaranteed to provide new or additional public services such as pre school education and social housing?
19
Top Tax Rate of 60%, on Income in Excess of €100,000: For or Against? x Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006
GENDER
AGE
Total
Male
Female
U25
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+
1006
483
523
152
206
277
233
138
In favour
63
63
63
Against
37
37
37
Base:
58
42
68
32
63
37
66
34
57
43
Just under 2 in 3 in favour of a top tax rate of 60%, combining income tax, USC and social insurance, peaking amongst 25-35. Q.5 Confidential
Would you be in favour or against a top tax rate of 60%, combining income tax, USC and social insurance, on that part of income in excess of €100,000 per annum?
20
Top Tax Rate of 60%, on Income in Excess of €100,000: For or Against? x Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006
CLASS Base:
Total
ABC1
C2DE
F
Dublin
1006
454
477
75*
285
254
288
60
63
61
40
37
39
In favour
63
Against
REGION
37
58
42
67
33
Leinster Munster Conn/Uls
72
28
179
70
30
Highest proportions in favour in Connacht/Ulster. Q.5 Confidential
Would you be in favour or against a top tax rate of 60%, combining income tax, USC and social insurance, on that part of income in excess of €100,000 per annum?
21
Key Findings
22 Confidential
Key Findings ●
83% feel income in Ireland is unfairly distributed.
●
When informed that the incomes of the top 10% are 7.5 times greater than those on lowest incomes, 88% feel income in Ireland is unfairly distributed.
●
90% feel that the government should take active steps to reduce the gap between high and low earners.
●
84% feel the government should increase the minimum wage, up from 65% in 2010. 55% feel a maximum wage should be established (down from 78% in 2010). 46% feel both measures should be introduced. 7% feel neither measure should be introduced.
●
50% are willing to support higher taxes if guaranteed high quality public services, up from 35% in 2010. Two slightly different wordings were put to respondents, and in both cases the result is an even split between the two.
●
63% are in favour of the introduction of a 60% top rate of tax, combining income tax, USC and Social Insurance, on annual income in excess of €100,000.
23 Confidential
24 Confidential