SIRE TREND PREDICTIONS FOR 2023 SALES

Article by Trevor Marshallsea | Photos courtesy of Stud Farms

Predicting stallion trends at yearling sales can be a notoriously testing business, but aside from the more obvious picks some interesting names are poised to step forward in 2023, at an intriguing time for Australian breeding.

There are the time-tested pillars who are the easy picks.

I Am Invincible’s offspring will be as keenly sought as ever after he took his first general sires title last season - and led the counting by winners in mid-December on that table, plus the two- and three-year-old lists. The Yarraman super stallion’s average yearling price soared to a career-high $563,000 in 2022, up from $124,000 in 2016.

Similarly, Arrowfield’s Snitzel - whose yearlings averaged $540,000 last year - will be in strong demand, as ever, as will proven rivals in Widden’s Zoustar and his fellow speed sire, Darley’s Exceed And Excel, and Coolmore legend, Fastnet Rock.

However, a few sires who’ve emerged more recently can be expected to be hotter property this year.

After posting some extraordinary stats for stakes winners in the past 12 months, Extreme Choice’s average yearling price soared from $154,000 two years ago to $337,000 last year. With the Newgate stallion’s offerings limited, from a 2021 crop of just 41 live foals, some hefty prices may ensue.

Harry Angel got off to a strong start - two winners from four first-season runners by mid-December - and so is likely to lead the way for shuttle sires in 2023. Trapeze Artist’s two-year-olds also showed some early toe, and with his stock famously good types, they are likely to be keenly sought.

Russian Revolution was champion first season sire of 2021-22, usually a guarantee of hot prices the following yearling sale season. That could be brought into question by his relatively slow start for two-year-olds in his second season, but in a notoriously fickle landscape, that’s nothing a run of New Year winners can’t fix. A similar watching brief could be in place concerning The Autumn Sun.

By contrast, Hellbent has gathered momentum after a slow start, and his stock should prove popular, while still economical.

As for first-season sires, strong reports have emerged over the offspring of Cosmic Force - (whose dad and Newgate barnmate Deep Field will no doubt be popular again in the mid-price range) - as well as Widden’s Zousain, whose 138 live foals gave him a bigger first crop than anyone.

Darley’s Microphone also drew impressed nods through early yearling inspections, while Coolmore’s Yes Yes Yes had many admirers.

While speed remains king, there are signs of a subtly shifting landscape. Newgate’s recent addition of State Of Rest - the Cox Plate winner known for his 2000m prowess - recognises that many of Australia’s richest races are over at least that far, and that after years of relying on imports it could be time to breed our own, improved, distance horses.

In that sphere, buyers may be more inclined to purchase now and wait for later, when it comes to sires such as Coolmore’s So You Think - after his career-high second place on the general list last term - and Arrowfield’s Dundeel.

Vinery’s All Too Hard, who in 2022 had more Group 1 wins than anyone, is another whose offspring have been rewarding patient owners in spades of late, especially through his flagbearer Alligator Blood, successful at up to 1800m.

Predicting stallion trends at yearling sales can be a notoriously testing business, but aside from the more obvious picks some interesting names are poised to step forward in 2023, at an intriguing time for Australian breeding.

Yes Yes Yes (Coolmore Australia)

Extreme Choice (Newgate Farm)

Photo Credit Sharon Lee Chapman

Dundeel (Arrowfield Stud)

I Am Invincible (Yarraman Park Stud)