World News A united Ireland looks more likely thanks to Brexit, new study finds

MORE people in Northern Ireland now expect to join a united Ireland rather than stay in the UK, according to a major new survey of public opinion rattled by Brexit.

It’s the first time that results from the annual Life and Times Survey — published two months early to capitalise on President Joe Biden’s visit to the Ulster University campus in Belfast — has found a plurality of public expectations tilting toward Irish unity and away from continued political union with Britain.

The shift has been pronounced since post-Brexit trade rules went live two years ago. To the anger of unionists, the U.K.-EU treaty left Northern Ireland subject to EU rules for goods so that cross-border trade could continue uninterrupted with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member.

While the same survey in 2020 found most people expected to be in the U.K. in 20 years’ time, opinion on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future had tightened to an even split a year later.

The latest finding, based on 1,405 people surveyed in late 2022, now finds that 45 per cent of people think Northern Ireland will no longer be in the UK 20 years from now. Only 38 per cent still think the union with Britain will remain. An even higher percentage – 63 percent, up 5 points from two years ago – thinks Brexit has made unification more likely in any time frame.

The shifting figures reflect both hopes and unease at the prospect, with unionists more determined than ever to oppose stronger ties with the republic at the expense of UK. membership.

It’s why the Democratic Unionist Party for the past year has blocked the formation of a new Northern Ireland government. Their policy of obstruction remains despite the UK-EU breakthrough agreement in February that will simplify and reduce – but not eliminate – EUrequired checks on British goods arriving at Northern Irish ports.

When asked what they personally want to happen, a plurality of those surveyed still favour continued U.K. membership – though the margin there continues to tighten, too, versus those seeking the creation of an all-island nation.

The latest finding finds that 45 per cent of people think Northern Ireland will no longer be in the UK 20 years from now.

Were a referendum on uniting Ireland to happen tomorrow, 47 percent of respondents said they’d reject the proposition to stay British. That’s 6 points lower than two years ago. Those willing to vote now to erase that border has risen to a new high of 35 percent, up 5 points.

The Good Friday peace deal marking its 25th anniversary this week includes a key British government commitment to hold such a referendum if and when it appears majority opinion has shifted in favour of Irish unity.

The attitude shift looks even sharper using a longer lens, because the same survey in 2015 — the year before the Brexit referendum that a 56 percent majority rejected in Northern Ireland — rated public support for Irish unity at a paltry 14 percent.

Thursday’s survey results contain other indicators that the unexpected trade outcome from the Brexit deal continues to nudge Northern Irish attitudes away from the union — not yet anywhere close to an Irish nationalist victory, but all moving in that direction.

Among key swing voters in any referendum — those who identify as neither British unionist nor Irish nationalist — the proportion of those saying Brexit has made them favour Irish unity has risen 5 points to 43 percent in only the past year. And on the key question of identity, those who consider themselves British and unionist has slid to a new low, Irish nationalist to a new high in this decades-old survey, which is conducted jointly by Ulster University and Queen’s University Belfast.

Thursday’s breakdown versus 2020 still has those identifying with neither sectarian camp on top with 38 per cent (down 4 points), while unionists have fallen to 31 per cent (also down 4) and nationalists have jumped to 26 percent (up 7). (Politico.eu)

Fear and confusion in Japan’s Hokkaido as North Korean missile triggers evacuation order

A North Korean missile sparked fear on the Japanese northern island of Hokkaido Thursday after the government’s emergency alert system warned residents to take cover.

Millions of people received a J-alert, or evacuation order, shortly before 8 a.m., urging them to seek shelter as the missile could land on or near the island.

But soon after, fear turned into anger and confusion as the evacuation order was lifted amid reports that it had been sent in error, with local officials saying there was no possibility of the missile hitting the island and Tokyo later confirming it had fallen outside Japanese territory, in waters off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula.

Many residents were critical of the decision to send the alert.

“What is the use of the J-Alert, which warns of a missile falling when you do not know where it will fall?” asked one Twitter user.

“In the end, it serves no purpose other than to instill in the Japanese people the feeling that Japan is being targeted, and to scare them.”

Another Twitter user said that even had the alert been warranted there would have been too little time to find shelter.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno defended the government’s response at a press conference in Tokyo on Thursday, but admitted “We did not correct the information issued by the J-Alert.”

He said the alert was “appropriate” given the limited information available at the time and said the government had updated the alert once it was determined the missile would not fall near Hokkaido.

This is not the first time there have been issues with the J-Alerts. Last October, Japan apologized for the malfunctioning of the early warning system when residents in nine of Tokyo’s island towns and villages were mistakenly sent alerts. On that occasion, North Korea had fired a ballistic missile, but it did not pass over the communities who received the alerts.

The latest alarm came after North Korea fired what appeared to be a mid or longer range ballistic missile from an area near Pyongyang, at around 7:23 a.m. local time Thursday, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The White House said it “strongly condemns” the missile test. “This launch is a brazen violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions and needlessly raises tensions and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement.

“The door has not closed on diplomacy, but Pyongyang must immediately cease its destabilizing actions and instead choose diplomatic engagement. The United States will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the American homeland and Republic of Korea and Japanese allies,” Watson added.

The South Korean military believes Pyongyang was testing a new ballistic missile, which it had showcased in a military parade, according to a military official. That missile could be solid-fuelled, a type of missile that can be launched more quickly and moved around more easily than the liquidfuelled long-range missiles North Korea has tested in the past.