DRAFT
The Student Achievement Gap in Bulgaria Dimensions, Consequences, and Possible Solutions September 2012
Teach For Bulgaria Dobromira Boyadjieva d.boyadjieva@zaednovchas.bg
Trayan Trayanov t.trayanov@zaednovchas.bg
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
1
DRAFT
Contents
1
Introduction
2
The Challenge
3
The Consequences
4
Possible Solutions
5
Authors & Acknowledgements
6
Sources
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
2
DRAFT 1
Introduction
Human capital is the essential, critical ingredient of economic and social development
“From the ability to withstand an earthquake to the capacity for social mobility, the effects of education percolate through the fabric of communities and reveal themselves over time. In their absence, fault lines crack the foundation of any society.” Horanski (2010)
“The simple conclusion from the combined evidence is that differences in cognitive skills lead to economically significant differences in economic growth. Moreover, since the tests concentrate on the impact of schools, the evidence suggests that school policy can, if effective in raising cognitive skills, be an important force in economic development.” NBER (2010)
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
3
DRAFT 1
Introduction
Human capital is the essential, critical ingredient of entrepreneurship and innovation
“In a knowledge economy, education is the new currency by which nations maintain economic competitiveness and global prosperity. Education today is inseparable from the development of human capital.” U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, World Bank, Human Development Network Forum March 2, 2011
“… there are powerful, and previously unexplored, human capital effects that foster the development of skills and competence necessary to follow a career in entrepreneurship and self-employment.” ISBE (2009)
"...per capita growth of GNP in OECD member countries is dependent primarily on the rate of investment in physical capital as a percent of GNP but also on human capital investment, especially for college education but more significantly for secondary education in the lower income OECD member countries.” OECD (2000)
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
4
DRAFT 1
Introduction
Human capital is the essential, critical ingredient for effective and democratic governance
“… education is an essential component of a stable democratic society because it encourages citizens to participate in democratic processes and prepares them to do so in an informed and intelligent manner.” NBER (2003)
education and learning can support habits, skills and values conducive to social co-operation and participation.” “…
OECD (2001)
“Why is there a connection between human capital and freedom? ... The connection reflects the ability of educated people to organize and fight collaboratively.” Glaeser (2009)
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
5
DRAFT 1
Introduction
Access to quality K-12 education has a tremendous effect on one’s life and career trajectory
Famous “College Drop-out Billionaires” all Received World-class Secondary Education Bill Gates
Steve Jobs
Mark Zuckerberg
H. Ty Warner
Business:
Microsoft
Apple
Ty Inc.
Dropped out from:
Harvard College
Reed College
Harvard College
Kalamazoo College
Lakeside School
Homestead High School
Philips Exeter Academy
St. John's Northwestern Military Academy
Key facts about the HS:
Founded 1914, sends 100% of its graduating class to four-year colleges
Founded 1961. Played a role in the development of Silicon Valley
Founded 1781. Highly selective, known for the application of the Harkness method
Founded 1884. Private, allmale college preparatory and leadership development school
Famous alumni of this HS
Paul Allen, the McCaw brothers, Po Bronson, Jabe Blumenthal, Frederic Moll
Steve Wozniak, Dan Gordon, Randy Wigginton
Ulysses Grant, Pierre S. du Pont, John Negroponte, Peter Orszag, Dan Brown, Gore Vidal
General Edward A. Craig, George Kennan, Albert Graft, Carl Thomsen
High-school attended:
There are important feedback effects in human capital formation. “For many students (but by no means all), lagging achievement evidenced as early as fourth grade appears to be a powerful predictor of rates of high school and college graduation, as well as lifetime earnings.” Source: Teach For Bulgaria research. Quote from McKinsey & Co (2009) Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
6
DRAFT 1
Introduction
Students in top education systems acquire not only subject-knowledge but also higher-order cognitive and non-cognitive competencies, as well as essential mindsets and attitudes OECD Education for Sustainable Development Subject competencies – knowledge, facts, definitions, concepts, systems Methodological competencies – skills, fact-finding, analysis, problem-solving Social competencies – communicating, working interactively, citizenship Personal competencies – attitudes, values, ethics
EC Key Competencies for Life Long Learning
P21 Framework for 21st Century Learning
Communication in mother tongue
Creativity and innovation
Communication in foreign languages
Critical thinking & problem solving
Mathematical, science, and technology competence
Information literacy
Digital competence Learning to learn
Communication and collaboration
Media literacy ICT Flexibility & adaptability
Social and civic competences
Initiative and self-direction
Sense of initiative and entrepreneurship
Social & cross-cultural skills
Cultural awareness and expression
Productivity & accountability Leadership & responsibility
“These are no longer skills that only the elites in a society must master; they are essential survival skills for all of us.” Source: UNECE (2009), European Commission (2006), P21.org. Quote from Wagner (2008) Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
7
DRAFT 1
Introduction
There are now valid and reliable measures of the quality of schooling provided – international assessments measuring the extent to which students have mastered essential competencies Assessment
PISA
TIMSS
PIRLS
Age-group Assessments tested completed
9th grade
4th grade* 8th grade
4th grade 8th grade*
Competency assessed
Bulgaria’s performance
2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012**
Math proficiency
Number of countries: 65
Reading proficiency
Ranking 2009: 46
Sciences
Percentile: 29%
1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011*
Math proficiency Sciences proficiency
Number of countries: 59 Ranking 2007: 23 Percentile: 62%
Number of countries: 40 2001, 2006, 2011***
Reading proficiency
Ranking 2006: 11 Percentile: 73% Number of countries: 38
ICCS
8th grade
1999, 2009
Civic literacy
Ranking 2009: 28 Percentile: 22%
Source: Teach For Bulgaria analysis
* Bulgaria did not take part; **Results will be released in Dec 2013; *** Results will be released in Dec 2012 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
8
DRAFT 1
Introduction
Analysis of Bulgarian students’ performance on international assessments reveals that the country faces two achievement gaps that must be urgently addressed and closed Lower average performance on assessment Lagging behind in the development of key Lower average cognitive skills performance of Relatively high percent of students below proficiency level among those who attend Bulgarian students school, and few top performing students compared to other Lower enrollment but equal attainment countries 1
What is the “achievement gap�?
2
Significant variation in performance between students and schools in BG
Wide and increasing gap between students performing at the top and students performing at the bottom Performance strongly affected by socioeconomic status of students, language they speak at home, place where they live Performance strongly affected by type of school attended
Source: Teach For Bulgaria analysis Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
9
DRAFT 1
Introduction
To illustrate the magnitude of two achievement gaps, Bulgaria was compared to the OECD averages, Finland (the EU’s top performer), and a benchmark group of countries (below) Per capita GDP (2009, USD now)
Spending per student** 2000
2009
Socio-economics* 2000
2009
Population (2011, Million)
Bulgaria
6,403
18.4
24.2
34.3
28.2
7.476
Serbia
5,484
n.a.
14.4
n.a.
27.8
7.261
Romania
7,500
13.5
16.6
30.3
30.0
21.390
16,100
16.1
15.1
19.5
26.0
5.44
Hungary
12,635
20.4
23.0
27.3
31.2
9.971
Greece
28,521
20.3
n.a.
34.3
34.3
11.304
Slovak Republic
Source: Teach For Bulgaria analysis
Note: * Gini index, ** as % of GDP per capita Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
10
DRAFT
Contents
1
Introduction
2
The Challenge 2.1
External Gap
2.2
Internal Gap
3
The Consequences
4
Possible Solutions
5
Authors & Acknowledgements
6
Sources
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
11
DRAFT 2.1 External Gap
In recent years Bulgaria performs below or near the average across all international assessments PISA percentile (9th graders)
TIMSS percentile (4th and 8th graders) 100th percentile
100th percentile
57th 27th
BG did not participate
27th
29th
2006
2009
2003
BG ranking
32
-
42
46
BG ranking
# participants
43
34
57
65
# participants*
1995
PIRLS percentile (4th graders) 89th
62nd
BG did not meet sampling requirements
2000
100th percentile
50th
BG did not participate 1999
2003
2007
2011
11
17
24
24
-
43
39
48
46
45
ICCS percentile (8th graders) 100th percentile
73rd
29th
22nd
1999
2009
20
28
TBD
BG ranking
2001
2006
4
11
2011 Results expected y.e. 2012
BG ranking
# participants 35 40 # participants 28 36* Source: Teach For Bulgaria summary of BG performance Note1: data from y.e. 2009, Note2: Percentile - the value of a variable below which a certain percent of observations fall., e.g. 66th percentile means 34 percent of countries have higher results; * # of participating countries for 8th grade; * 38 total countries participated in the ICCS 2009 study, but 2 did not meet sampling requirements Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
12
DRAFT 2.1 External Gap
Bulgarian students perform significantly and consistently worse than their peers in OECD countries. Only Romanians perform worse in our peer group Historical Performance on PISA : Blended Reading, Math & Science Scores* CAGR (`00 - `09) In percentage In points
In points*
560
544
540 520
496 497 488
500 480
473
0.18 %
4
- 0.15 %
-3
0.41 %
12
0.07 %
1
0.64 %
12
1.08 %
14
0.12 %
2
- 0.12 %
-2
460
442 432 426
440 420 400
2000 OECD average
2003 Bulgaria
2006 Serbia
Source: OECD. Pisa 2009 Results (2010), Table V.2.1
Finland
2009 Romania
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Greece
Note: data from y.e. 2009 * Maximum PISA score is 700 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
13
DRAFT 2.1 External Gap
The experience of other countries suggests that student performance can be significantly improved over the course of three assessment cycles Historical and Comparative Performance on PISA: Reading Scores* CAGR (`00 - `09) In percentage In points
In points*
500
450
484
1.39 %
26
449
2.30 %
39
429
- 0.06 %
-1
2.03 %
31
2.48 %
36
3.14 %
43
402
400
385 370 350
300
2000
2003 Peru
Chile
2006 Albania
Source: OECD. PISA 2009 Results (2010) .Table V.2.1
Indonesia
2009 Latvia
Bulgaria
Note1: data from y.e. 2009, Note2: Line for Chili and Peru interpolated * Maximum PISA score is 700 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
14
DRAFT 2.1 External Gap
The proportion of top-performing Bulgarian students is significantly and consistently lower compared to the proportion of bottom performers Reading (PISA) In %
% below proficiency level
Mathematics (TIMSS) In %
% top level
50 %
% below proficiency level
% top level
50 % 42.7% 40.0%
41.0%
40 %
40 %
30 %
30 %
20 %
20 %
26 %
18 % 11 %
10 %
10 % 2.2%
2.1%
0% 2000
9%
2.8%
4%
3%
0% 2003
2006
2009
1999
2003
2007
Source: OECD. PISA 2009 Results (2010) . Table V.2.2, TIMSS Note 1: PISA data from y.e. 2009, Note 2: For PISA - Top level defined as above 626 score points, below proficiency level defined as below 407 score points; For TIMSS – top level defined as above 625 points, below proficiency – below 400 points Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
15
DRAFT 2.1 External Gap
Bulgaria has the highest share of students performing below proficiency, the lowest share of students performing at the world-class level, and hence the lowest average score Student Below Proficiency (Reading, PISA 2009) In %
Top-Performing Students: (Reading, PISA 2009)
In points
In %
Bulgaria
41%
Benchmarking Countries OECD Average
Finland
26.4%
18.1%
8.1%
Average Country Score: (Reading, PISA 2009)
Bulgaria
Benchmarking Countries OECD Average
2.8%
Bulgaria
Benchmarking Countries
3.5%
Finland
5x more
OECD Average
7.6%
14.5%
5x less
429
464
493
Finland
536
- 107 p.
38 points on PISA correspond to 1 year of formal schooling. By the age of 15, the average Bulgarian student has fallen nearly three years behind the average Finnish student, and nearly two years behind the average OECD student. Proportion of students below the proficiency level is 5 times larger in BG Source: OECD. PISA 2009 Results (2010) . Table V.2.1, Table I.2.3
Note1: data from y.e. 2009 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
16
DRAFT 2.1 External Gap
The extraordinarily high proportion of students below the minimum level of proficiency holds across all competency areas tested Percentage Illiterate2: Reading, PISA 2009
Percentage Illiterate2: Science, PISA 2009
In % 45 %
Percentage Illiterate3: ICCS, 2009 In %
In %
39 %
41 %
27 % 35 %
25 %
35 %
27 % 26 %
25 %
25 %
18 %
18 %
15 %
15 %
16 %
15 %
15 %
8%
6% 5%
5% BG
Benchmarking OECD countries average
Finland
% illiterate 2009 * No data on the Slovak Republic and Serbia available - benchmarking countries average is calculated based on data for Romania, Hungary, and Greece
BG
Benchmarking OECD countries average
% illiterate 2009
Finland
5%
2% BG
Benchmarking ICCS countries average
Finland
% illiterate 2009 * Hungary, Serbia and Romania did not participate in the ICCS’09 study - benchmarking countries average is calculated based on data for Greece and the Slovak Republic
Source: OECD. PISA 2009 Results (2010) . Table V.2.2, V 3.2, V3.5 2009 Note1: data from y.e. 2009 , Note2: Illiteracy defined as performance below PISA level 2. Note3: Illiteracy in ICCS defined as performance below level 1, or below 395 points 17 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
DRAFT 2.1 External Gap
Bulgarian students perform worse in critical areas like reading literacy compared to their peers in benchmark countries who have spent the same or fewer years in school
Average score Reading / Math / Science (PISA, 2009)
Education Quantity vs. Quality: PISA 2009 (Test Scores vs. Average Years of Schooling) 600 550
Finland Hungary
500
Slovak Republic Greece
450
Bulgaria
400
Romania
350 300 4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
8,5
9,0
9,5
10,0 10,5 11,0 11,5 12,0 12,5 13,0 13,5
Years of schooling (total)
“Bulgaria has a low share of people lacking at least primary education and a fairly high number of average years of schooling per person, but at the same time there is a disconnect between the number of years of schooling and the quality of skills (as measured by PISA)� Source: Teach For Bulgaria (2012) Note: The black lines represent the OECD average (as a single entity) 18 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
DRAFT 2.1 External Gap
Beyond education outcomes, school enrollment is lower than what other countries achieve while attainment (obtaining high-school diploma) is equal or higher Attainment Levels, 2010 (ages 20 - 24)
Net Enrollment Rate*, 2010 In %
In %
100 %
96 % 98 % 96 % 92 %
90 % 80 %
87 % 80 %
83 % 87 %
100 % 90 %
70 %
70 %
60 %
60 %
50 %
50 %
40 %
40 %
30 %
30 %
20 %
20 %
10 %
10 %
0%
0%
Enrollment rate, Ages 5 to 14
Enrollment rate, Ages 15 to 19
79 % 76 %
80 %
80 %
65 %
15 % 19 % 16 % 16 %
Persons with lower secondary education attainment
Persons with upper secondary education attainment
Bulgaria***
OECD average
Bulgaria
EU 27 average
Benchmarking countries**
Finland
Benchmarking countries****
Finland
Source: OECD. Education at a Glance (2011). OECD Indicator C1 * Calculated as total students in the following age groups as a percentage of population of the same age groups; ** Based on data for Greece, Hungary and the Slovak Republic, *** Enrollment rate from NSI 2012 data for primary education, 19 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012 **** Based on data for Greece, Hungary, Romania and the Slovak Republic
DRAFT
Contents
1
Introduction
2
The Challenge 2.1
External Gap
2.2
Internal Gap
3
The Consequences
4
Possible Solutions
5
Authors & Acknowledgements
6
Sources
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
20
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
The performance gap between students at the 90th and 10th percentiles is consistently and significantly wider in Bulgaria compared to other countries Average Difference Between the 90th and the 10th Percentiles in 2000
Average Difference Between the 90th and the 10th Percentiles in 2009
700
700
650
650
600
600
550 500 450
550
225
223
500
247 254
241 233
450
265
400
400
350
350
300
296
300
+31 points
250 200
250 200
BG Benchmark OECD
Finland
BG
Benchmark OECD
Finland
The gap between top-performing and bottom-performing Bulgarian students has grown by 31 points over 10 years, the equivalent of almost a year of schooling. Meanwhile, other countries appear to have reduced this gap over the same period Source: OECD. PISA 2009 Results (2010) . Table V.2.3 ,
10th percentile
90th percentile
Average
Note: data from y.e. 2009
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
21
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
Variation in performance both between and within schools is consistently larger in Bulgaria and has increased over the last decade Benchmarking BG Performance: Variation Between and Within Schools in 2000 and 2009 In points2
8,000
Variation between schools
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000
Variation within schools Bulgaria
Benchmarking countries
OECD average
Finland
Variation between schools in 2009
Variation between schools in 2000
Variation within schools in 2009
Variation within schools in 2000
Source: OECD. Pisa 2009 Results (2010), Figure V.4.5
Note:data from y.e. 2009, Benchmarking done using data from Romania, Hungary and Greece Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
22
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
When compared to all countries that took part in PISA 2009, Bulgaria is in the worst possible quadrant, simultaneously displaying high within-school and high between-school variance Between- and Within-School Variation in Reading Performance, 2009
Variation in student performance within schools
In points2
9.000 8.000 7.000
Finland Bulgaria
6.000
Greece 5.000 4.000
Romania
3.000
Hungary
2.000 1.000 0 0
500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000 6.500 7.000 7.500 8.000 8.500
Variation in student performance between schools Source: Teach For Bulgaria (2012) Note: The black lines represent the OECD average (as a single entity) 23 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
There is a disturbingly high percentage of disadvantaged low achievers and a very low percentage of disadvantaged high achievers (a.k.a. “resilient� students) in Bulgaria Resilient Students and Disadvantaged Low Achievers
Percentage of disadvantaged low achievers
20 %
15 %
Bulgaria 10 %
Romania
5%
Serbia Slovak Republic
Greece Hungary Finland
0%
0% 1%
2% 3% 4%
5% 6%
7 % 8 % 9 % 10 % 11 % 12 % 13 % 14 % 15 % 16 % 17 % 18 % 19 %
Percentage of disadvantaged high achievers Source: Teach For Bulgaria (2012) Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
24
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
The impact of socio-economic factors is significantly more pronounced in Bulgaria than in other countries The Importance of Economic, Social and Cultural Status in Explaining Mathematics Scores (strength of gradient vs. slope of gradient) 0,28
Strength of the gradient
(How How much of the variance in student performance is explained by student socio-economic background background)
0,26
Hungary
0,24 0,22 0,20
Bulgaria
0,18 0,16
Romania
0,14 0,12 0,10
Greece
Serbia
0,08 0,06
Slovak Republic
Finland
0,04 0,02 0,00 0
2
4
6
8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
Slope of gradient (Score point difference associated with one unit increase in the PISA ESCS index) Source: Teach For Bulgaria (2012)
Note1: Data from y.e. 2009 Note 2: The black lines represent the OECD average (as a single entity) 25 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
All in all, Bulgarian schools fail to alleviate the effects of poverty on student achievement Disadvantaged High-Achieving (i.e. “Resilient�)Students
Percentage Variation Explained by Socio-economic Factors
In %
In %
Bulgaria
Benchmark Countries
2%
20 %
Bulgaria
Benchmark Countries
5%
8%
OECD Average
14 %
OECD Average
11 %
Finland
15 %
Finland
8%
5x
The experience and results of other countries prove that poverty, widely construed, does not have to be destiny when it comes to student achievement Source: OECD. Overcoming Social Background (2010). Figure II.1.4 . Teach For Bulgaria analysis
Note: data from y.e. 2009 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
26
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
Bulgarian students in villages and small towns tend to perform worse than their peers in big cities Mean Score by Size of Town, 2009: Reading In points, size of town in ‘000
Percent Students Below Proficiency Level In %, size of town in ‘000
700
80
600
70
474
500 400
397
78 %
60
476
418
51 %
148
328
300
40
25 %
30
200
3x!
43 %
50
24 %
20
100
10
0
0 Village
Small Town
Town
City
Large City
Village
Small Town
Town
City
Large City
5%
18%
39%
23%
15%
5%
18%
39%
23%
15%
% of students in each town category
% of students in each town category
The percentage of students whose results put them below the minimum proficiency level is disturbingly high in villages and small towns Source: OECD. Pisa 2009 Results (2010). ЦКОКУО (2010). Teach For Bulgaria analysis
Note: data from y.e. 2009 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
27
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
The contrasting experience of Finland shows that being born in a village or a small town does not mean students should receive schooling of lower quality Bulgaria
Finland
In points, size of town in ‘000
In points, size of town in ‘000
700
700
600
600 525 474
500 397
400
476
538
532
543
18
500
418
148
400
328 300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
n.a.
<3
3 - 15
15 - 100
100 1 000
> 1 000
Source: PISA 2009. ЦКОКУО (2010). Teach For Bulgaria analysis
<3
3 - 15
15 - 100
100 1000
> 1 000
Note: data from y.e. 2009 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
28
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
Linguistic-minority students perform significantly worse than students who speak Bulgarian at home Importance of language for: Reading performance In points
Importance of language for: Math performance
Importance of language for: Sciences performance In points
In points
700
700
700
600
600
600
500
- 102
444
400
342
500
- 66
438 372
400
500 400
300
300
300
200
200
200
100
100
100
0
0
0
Bulgarian
Other
Bulgarian
Other
- 82
451 369
Bulgarian
Other
The difference is least pronounced in the case of mathematics, but it is still significant, equivalent of almost 2 years lag in academic progress Source: PISA 2009 . Teach For Bulgaria analysis
Note: data from y.e. 2009 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
29
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
The share of functionally illiterate students is two times higher among linguistic-minority students Language influence on PISA scores - Bulgaria In %
3%
0%
100%
25%
Finland
In points
In points
700
700
600
600
-61
538 500
64%
- 102
444
400
477
500 400
342
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
75%
34%
Bulgarian at home
Other at home
PISA Top Performers (5,6) Source: PISA 2009. Teach For Bulgaria analysis
Bulgarian at home
Other at home
PISA Mid performers (2,3,4)
Finnish at home
Other at home
PISA Bottom performers (< 1B, 1B and 1A)
Note: data from y.e. 2009 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
30
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
Student scores in Bulgaria vary significantly according to the occupation of parents Importance of parents’ profession for: Reading performance
Importance of parents’ profession for: Math performance
In points
Importance of parents’ profession for: Sciences performance In points
In points
700
700
700
600
600
600
400
BG:
481
500
101
380
300
OECD: 71
200
400
BG:
472
500
388
84
300
OECD:
200
71
400
100
0
0
0
Blue Collar
White Collar
OECD:
200
100
White Collar
92
396
300
100
Blue Collar
BG:
488
500
72
Blue Collar
White Collar
Furthermore, the performance gap between students of blue-collar and white-collar parents is consistently bigger in Bulgaria compared to the OECD Source: ЦКОКУО (2010)
Note: data from y.e. 2009 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
31
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
The absence of one parent affects academic performance negatively in all cases but the impact is much more pronounced in Bulgaria compared to Finland Bulgaria
Finland
In points
In points
700
700
600
600
538 500 400
500
446
444 363
394
-81
300
-52
300
yes
yes no
no
100
0
0
Father lives at home
Source: PISA 2009. Teach For Bulgaria analysis
526
yes
no
-14
no
200
100
Mother lives at home
540 -22
400
yes 200
516
Mother lives at home
Father lives at home
Note: data from y.e. 2009 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
32
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
By the age of 15, Bulgarian students with parents with primary education or less lag 4+ years behind their peers. In Finland, this lag is equivalent to 1-1,5 years of schooling Bulgaria
Finland
In points
In points
700
700
600
600
500
451
486
400
449
+168 318
500
4723
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
Primary or less
Secondary
504
Mother
Father Higher
515
544
552
+37
400
300
Mother
556
+ 52 + 163
309
541
Primary or less
Father Secondary
Higher
Source: PISA 2009 Note 1: data from y.e. 2009; Note 2: Primary - below level 1, 1, 2 on ISCED, Secondary - level 3 a, 3B, 3C, 4 on ISCED; Higher education level 5A, 5B, 6 on ISCED; Note 3: There is an illogical drop in performance for a student with a father with 6th ISCED level of education thus data point was ignored 33 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
The higher the economic, social and cultural status (ESCS) of students, the higher their scores Reading Performance Distribution Across ESCS quintiles, Bulgaria In %
0%
1%
1%
3%
6%
100%
PISA Top performers (5-6)
31%
PISA Mid performers (2,3,4) 53%
PISA Bottom performers (1A ,1B and Below Level 1B)
62% 70% 81%
69% 46% 37% 27% 13%
ESCS Quintile 1 - Lowest -
ESCS Quintile 2
ESCS Quintile 3
ESCS Quintile 4
ESCS Quintile 5 - Highest -
Source: PISA 2009. Teach For Bulgaria analysis Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
34
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
Only 37% of middle-class students perform at the world-class level, and fully a third of them perform below proficiency Reading Performance & Socio-Economic Background In %
ESCS 5 (highest)
ESCS 3, 4
How ESCS index is calculated
ESCS 1,2 (lowest) 100%
7% 28% 33%
52%
45%
59% 33%
37% 27%
59% PISA Bottom Performers PISA Mid Performers (Level 1A, 1B, Below 1B) (Level 2, 3, 4) Source: PISA 2009; Teach For Bulgaria analysis
11%
ESCS – is an index that measures the economic, social and cultural status of a pupil and was created on the basis of the following variables: – the International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status (ISEI) – the highest level of education of the student’s parents – the PISA index of family wealth – the PISA index of home educational resources – the PISA index of possessions related to “classical” culture in the family home For the purpose of this analysis, students were binned in five quintiles according to their ESCS
PISA Top Performers (Level 5, 6) Note: data from y.e. 2009 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
35
DRAFT 2.2 Internal Gap
Relatively more egalitarian educational systems also tend to have more top-performing students Reading Performance Distribution
The Story of Finland
In %
3%
4%
8%
100%
15%
56% 69% 74% 77%
41% 27%
Bulgaria
Benchmark countries
19% OECD
8% Finalnd
“Since the 1980s, the main driver of Finnish education policy has been the idea that every child should have exactly the same opportunity to learn, regardless of family background, income, or geographic location. Education has been seen first and foremost not as a way to produce star performers, but as an instrument to even out social inequality.” “In fact, since academic excellence wasn't a particular priority on the Finnish to-do list, when Finland's students scored so high on the first PISA survey in 2001, many Finns thought the results must be a mistake. But subsequent PISA tests confirmed that Finland -- unlike, say, very similar countries such as Norway -- was producing academic excellence through its particular policy focus on equity.” – Anu Partanen
Extending disadvantaged low achievers’ access to quality education has the positive effect of expanding the base of highly-gifted students (whose talents may otherwise remain unnoticed and uncultivated) and thus of increasing the proportion of top-performing students as a whole Source: OECD. Pisa 2009 results (2010). Table V.2.3 & V.3.3 2009. Quote from Partanen (2011) High (5th, 6th level)
Average (2nd, 3rd and 4th level)
Note: data from y.e. 2009
Below minimum (below level 2) Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
36
DRAFT
Contents
1
Introduction
2
The Challenge
3
The Consequences
4
Possible Solutions
5
Đ?uthors & Acknowledgements
6
Sources
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
37
DRAFT 3
Consequences
Achievement levels vary drastically by educational attainment level. The difference in quality by type of school helps explain some variation between people of seemingly equal attainment PISA average scores by type of school, Bulgaria 2009
In %
In points* Non-profiled
Profiled
Professional
100 %
Science Reading
70 %
Math
60 %
460
86,4 % 77,3 %
80 %
480
72 %
50 %
440
Science Math
420
380
+34,7%
90 %
500
400
Employment rates, by highest level of education attained, Bulgaria 2011
Science
Reading
Math Reading
360
40 %
37,3 % 31,9 %
30 % 20 % 10 % 0% Below Primary
Primary
Secondary Secondary + Professional Qualification
Higher
Source: ЦКОКУО (2010), Investor.bg (2012) * Maximum PISA score 700 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
38
DRAFT 3
Consequences
Employment rates in Bulgaria are lowest for pre-primary, primary and lower secondary education attained with an overwhelming difference of 16% compared to EU 27 averages Benchmarking employment rates, by highest level of education attained (2011, % of age group 20-64 years) In %
100 % 90 %
82 %
80 % 70 %
66 %
60 %
Benchmarking countries
73 %
EU 27 average Finland
62 %
53 % 54 %
50 % 40 %
70 %
78 %
Bulgaria
82 % 84 %
43 %
- 16%
37 %
30 % 20 % 10 % 0% Pre-primary, primary and lower secondary education
Upper secondary and post-secondary nontertiary education
First and second stage of tertiary education
Source: Eurostat, Sept 2012 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
39
DRAFT 3
Consequences
Achievement gaps can explain the high proportion of young people not in employment, education or training in Bulgaria relative to other countries Percentage NEET (Young People Not in Education, Employment or Training)* In %
28 %
28 %
28 % 24 %
24 % 22 % 20 % 19 %
20 %
16 %
12 %
15 % 14 %
17 % 16 %
17 %
13 %
13 %
17 %
12 %
10 %
8% 2009 EU 27 average
Source: Eurostat, June 2012
2010 Bulgaria
Benchmarking countries*
2011 Finland
* No data no Serbia available - benchmarking countries average is calculated with data from Romania, Slovak Republic, Hungary and Greece ** Age group 19 - 29 40 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
DRAFT 3
Consequences
Failure to embed learning attitudes, skills and motivation in school leads to low level of lifelong learning activities among the adult population in Bulgaria Percentage of 25-64 Year Olds Participating in Lifelong Learning (LLL) Activities In %
EU 15 Average
24 %
23,1 %
Bulgaria
22,1 %
Benchmarking countries* 23,0 %
Finland 23,8 %
22 % 20 % 18 % 16 % 14 % 12 % 10 % 8%
9,2 %
9,2 %
9,1 %
8,9 %
2,7 %
2,6 %
2,5 %
2,7 %
1,4 % 0% 2008
1,4 %
6% 4% 2%
Source: Eurostat, Sept 2012
2009
1,2 % 2010
1,2 % 2011
* No data on Serbia available - benchmarking countries average is calculated with data from Romania, the Slovak Republic, Hungary and Greece Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
41
DRAFT 3
Consequences
Not surprisingly, skilled non-manual (“white collar”) professionals in Bulgaria make up a smaller share of the workforce Percentage of skilled non-manual labor (by age group, EU-27 vs. BG) 15 – 24 years
25 – 29 years
20 %
25+ years 41 % 40.6%
41 % 38.7%
-11%
-12% -9%
30 %
29 %
11 %
EU 27
EU 27
EU 27 BG
BG
BG
2011
2011
2011
Businesses are less likely to undertake investments if they anticipate a shortage of qualified workers Source: Eurostat, EU-LFS Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
42
DRAFT 3
Consequences
More than half of Bulgarian employers report difficulty finding qualified candidates, putting them at a disadvantage relative to businesses in other Eastern European countries Bulgaria: Employers having difficulty filling jobs
Eastern Europe: Employers having difficulty filling jobs, 2012 In %
In % 100%
60 % 51 %
42%
51%
50 %
45 % 37 %
40 %
34 %
30 % 58%
49%
26 %
Ø 31 %
24 % 17 %
20 %
14 %
10 %
2011 Having Difficulty
2012
0%
BG
RO
PL
HG
SL
GR
SK
CR
Not Having Difficulty
“The overall lack of soft skills was most often named as a barrier to hiring by employers in Bulgaria (23%)”
“The most notable talent shortages (in EMEA) are reported in Bulgaria (51%) and Romania (45%)”
Source: Data and quotes from Manpower (2012) Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
43
DRAFT 3
Consequences
Employers face two challenges: an aging population and fewer qualified graduates
Demographic Structure of the Bulgarian Population, y.e. 2011 In ´000
Women
High school University
Active work force
32 136 156 152 174
231 236 251 267 254 238 256 272 286 243 199 184
Elderly
119 59 14 2 0,2
0 34 1- 4 5-9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 - 89 31 90 - 94 7 95 - 99 1 100 + 0,1
Men
144 166 161 184 245 255 270 284 269 246 254 253 243 191 141 120 71
Source: NSI, 2011 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
44
DRAFT Consequences
Closing the achievement gap will increase the long-term annual growth rate. The reform would add 3,5 billion BGN in present value terms to the economy by 2027 Impact of an Educational Reform on GDP In BGN
450
GDP with reform
400 350 GDP (million BGN 2011)
3
300
GDP no reform
250 200 150 100 50 0 2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
Year
“...the persistence of these educational achievement gaps imposes … the economic equivalent of a permanent national recession.” Source: Teach For Bulgaria (2012). Quote from McKinsey & Co (2009) Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
45
DRAFT 3
Consequences
There are clear economic benefits from investing in the education of disadvantaged students. Most research investigates the Roma attainment and employment gap Budgetary Benefits to Roma Education
Economic Gains from Roma Inclusion
“Investment in Roma education yields significant long-term benefits for the national budget” - EUR 82 000 per student (present value)
“Bridging the education gap is also the economically smart choice to make”
Benefits to budget come “in the form of more payments (social security contributions, personal income tax, indirect taxes) and less transfers from the budget to citizens (welfare payments, public employment programs, unemployment benefits and costs of incarceration” “In order to be successful, investments should take place in early childhood”
“The annual fiscal gains from bridging the employment gap are much higher than the total cost of investing in public education for all Roma children” – by a factor of 7.7 for Bulgaria “Equal labour participation among the Roma is essential to shoulder the nationally rising costs of pensions, health and other costs of ageing.” Lower bound estimate of annual productivity losses: EUR 526 million in Bulgaria Lower bound annual fiscal losses: EUR 370 million in Bulgaria
Analyses do not capture non-monetary benefits or positive externalities resulting from having more educated workforce and less inequality Source: IME (2007). World Bank (2010) Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
46
DRAFT 3
Consequences
The achievement gap further manifests itself in terms of gaps in civic literacy. This poses significant challenge for the consolidation of democracy in Bulgaria Education and democracy “…additional schooling, both at the secondary and postsecondary levels, had large and statistically significant effects on voter participation. … the additional secondary schooling significantly increased the frequency of newspaper readership as well as the amount of support for allowing most forms of possibly controversial free speech” – NBER (2003)
Bulgarian democracy under threat Enrollment of eligible students in high school has increased in Bulgaria over the last 10 years but enrollment in primary and middle school has declined or stayed the same - NSI Only 13% of working-age Roma had at least some secondary education or more, compared to over 80% of working-age Bulgarians in 2010 – World Bank (2010)
“…educational attainment, both at the post-secondary and the secondary levels, has large and independent effects on most measures of civic engagement and attitudes” – NBER (2003)
Bulgaria’s overall performance on ICCS civic literacy assessment declined between 1999 and 2009, the largest observed decline of any country (IEA 2009)
“77 percent correlation between education levels in 1960 and the subsequent 40-year average of the Polity IV democracy index” – Glaser (2009)
In Bulgaria there is the highest correlation between socioeconomic status and civic literacy level observed across all participating countries8) (ЦКОКУО 2009)
“Voting rate for high school dropouts (39 percent) is less than half the rate of those with advanced degrees.” – ETS (2012)
The proportion of students with low socio-economic status has increased between 2000 and 2009 9)(OECD. Overcoming Social Background (2010)
„…If the workforce issue is solved by importing qualified specialists, these will be people whose voices will be easily bought, who will be easily tempted by populist leaders and who will be xenophobes.” - Professor Petya Kabakchieva, capital.bg (2012)
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
47
DRAFT
Contents
1
Introduction
2
The Challenge
3
The Consequences
4
Possible Solutions
5
Đ?uthors & Acknowledgements
6
Sources
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
48
DRAFT 4
Possible Solutions
There is mounting empirical evidence that the achievement gap can ultimately be closed
“… the wide variation in performance among schools and school systems serving similar students suggests that the opportunity and output gaps related to today’s achievement gap can be substantially closed. Many teachers and schools across the country are proving that race and poverty are not destiny; many more are demonstrating that middle-class children can be educated to world-class levels of performance.” McKinsey & Co (2009)
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
49
DRAFT 4
Possible Solutions
Spending on education is not the key issue. There are countries that achieve the same results while spending less, as well as countries that achieve better results while spending the same Public Spending per Student, PPP USD In points 580 Shanghai
560 540 520
Ta誰wan
500
Polande
Slovakia Lithuania Russia
480
Singapore South Korea Australia
Hong Kong
Estonia
Macau China
Czech Republic
Portugal
Latvia Croatia
460 Tha誰land
420
380
Germany France Spain
Slovenia Italy
Finland Great Britain
Netherlands
Ireland
US Austria
Israel
440
400
Ontario Canada
Japan
Azerbaijan Indonesia
Kazakhstan Colombia Tunisia
Chile Romania Mexico
Serbia Bulgaria
Brazil Argentina
Panama
360 340 320
Kyrgyzstan
0 0-1,000
1,0002,000
2,0003,000
30004,000
4,0005,000
5,0006,000
6,0007,000
7,0008,000
8,0009,000
9,00010,000
10,000+
Source: Slide & analysis by McKinsey & Co (2012), using data from World Bank EdStats; IMF; UNESCO; PISA; TIMSS; PIRLS
Excellent
Very good
Good
Average
Weak
Very weakAchievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
50
DRAFT 4
Possible Solutions
The effectiveness and quality of teaching and school management are the key factors that drive student achievement beyond the limits imposed by socio-economic status
“Teacher effectiveness is a key predictor of student learning. In fact, it has been found to be the most important school-based predictor […], a finding that indicates the potential for teacher policies to improve student learning.” World Bank (2012)
“We found that students who had an HVA [high value-added] teacher — in the top 5 percent — for even a single year, not only earned more as an adult, but also were more likely to go to college or to go to a higher-ranked college, and to live in a better neighborhood. They were also less likely to become a teen parent. Across a broad spectrum of measures, they were doing considerably better as the result of having a HVA teacher in Massari (2012) elementary school.”
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
51
DRAFT 4
Possible Solutions
The effectiveness and quality of teaching and school management are the key factors that drive student achievement beyond the limits imposed by socio-economic status
“A principal in the top 16 percent of the quality distribution...will lead annually to student gains that are .05 standard deviations or more higher than average for all students in the school.“ NBER (2012)
“Nearly 60 percent of a school’s impact on student achievement is attributable to principal and teacher effectiveness. These are the most important in-school factors driving school success, with principals accounting for 25 percent and teachers 33 percent of a school’s total impact on achievement. Furthermore, even though a single teacher can have a profound impact on student learning over the course of a year, that effect generally fades quite quickly unless a student’s subsequent teachers are equally effective, with half the gains being lost the following year, and nearly all of the gains being lost within two years.” NLNS (2011) Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
52
DRAFT 4
Possible Solutions
Reforms need to be undertaken with an eye toward 1) learning outcomes expected and 2) quality of teaching and school leadership required to accomplish this goal
“The world’s best-performing school systems make great teaching their ‘north star.’ They have strategic and systematic approaches to attract, develop, retain, and ensure the efficacy of the most talented educators – and they make sure great teachers serve students of all socio-economic backgrounds” McKinsey & Co (2010)
“An education system is only as good as its teachers. Both developed and developing countries have increasingly become concerned with increasing the effectiveness of their teachers.” World Bank (2012)
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
53
DRAFT 4
Possible Solutions
An effort should be made to attract both high-achieving students to teaching programs and offer a path into teaching for top graduates from other majors Average high-school diploma grade of admitted students by major In grade points*
6
5,5
5,6
Law
Medicine
5,2 5
4,8
4,8
Pedagogy
Engineering
4
3
2 Economics
“… the world’s top performing school systems - Singapore, Finland, and South Korea - […] recruit 100% of their teacher corps from the top third of the academic cohort, and then screen for other important qualities as well.” Source: Teach For Bulgaria analysis; Bulgarian university ranking system, http://rsvu.mon.bg/ . Quote from McKinsey & Co (2010) *Highest grade in the Bulgarian educational system is 6,0, the lowest one (fail) is 2,0 Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
54
DRAFT 4
Possible Solutions
There is room to attract younger teachers in Bulgaria and offer rewarding career paths to experienced ones Age of Teachers Bulgaria
Years of Experience
OECD*
Bulgaria
50 %
50 %
40 %
40 % 28 % 24 %
30 %
33 % 33 % 30 %
48 %
36 % 30 %
29 %
30 %
26 %
25 %
20 %
OECD*
20 %
17 %
12 %
10 % 2%3%
10 %
5%
6%
3%4%
0%
8%
0% Under 25
25-29
30-39
40-49
50-59 Over 60
Over 20
11-20
2-10
Less than 2
Source: OECD 2009. ЦКОКУО 2009. Teach For Bulgaria analysis . *The 16 OECD countries participating in TALIS used to calculate all OECD averages: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Turkey, Hungary Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
55
DRAFT 4
Possible Solutions
Bulgarian teachers spend almost double the time in professional development courses compared to their OECD colleagues, while almost twice as many have a MA degree Degree
Post-Graduate Qualifications Av. days of professional development, all teachers
Bulgaria
Teachers who had some prof. dev. in the last 18 m.
OECD*
In days
In %
100 %
100 %
50 88,3 %
80 %
87,1 %
80 %
40
64 %
60 % 40 % 20 %
60 %
50 %
15 % 16 %
30 +11,2 days
40 %
34 % 19 %
27,2
16,0
20
20 %
10
0%
0
0%1%
0% Less than BA
BA
MA
PhD
Bulgaria
OECD*
Source: OECD (2009). ЦКОКУО (2009). Teach For Bulgaria analysis *The 16 OECD countries participating in TALIS used to calculate all OECD averages: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Turkey, Hungary Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
56
DRAFT Possible Solutions
There appears to be both a mindset gap and a skill gap in Bulgaria when it comes to teachers’ preparedness to work with students from disadvantaged background Country profiles of beliefs about the nature of teaching and learning (2007-08) Country mean of ipsative scores Ipsative means
Direct transmission beliefs
Constructivist beliefs
0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 -0,1 -0,2 -0,3
Italy
Malaysia
Bulgaria
Spain
Portugal
Brazil
Lithuania
Ireland
Mexico
Hungary
Turkey
Poland
Norway
Slovak Rep.
Slovenia
Korea
Malta
Belgium (Fl.)
Denmark
Australia
Austria
-0,4
Iceland
4
Direct transmission beliefs communicate knowledge in a clear and structured way; explain correct solutions; give students clear and resolvable problems; ensure calm and concentration in the classroom Constructivist beliefs facilitate student inquiry; give them the chance to develop own solutions to problems; allow them to play active role in class; stress the development of thinking and reasoning processes more than the acquisition of specific knowledge
“Nearly half of teachers (47%) say that Roma children are difficult to integrate, while a quarter of them (25,4%) believe that Roma students should be segregated. Nearly a fifth (19,5%) of them think that ethnic minority students have different abilities.” Source: OECD (2009). TALIS 2009. Teach For Bulgaria analysis. Quote from Committee on Discrimination (2012) Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
57
DRAFT 4
Possible Solutions
An explicit goal needs to be set – raising achievement for all students, regardless of background. Teachers and principals need to be incentivized to pursue this goal relentlessly
“For educational investments to translate into student learning, all the people involved in the education process have to face the right incentives that make them act in ways that advance student performance.” Hanushek and Woessmann (2008)
“If teachers were doctors, and this many children had physical injuries that were not being successfully treated, it would be a national disgrace, and we would move aggressively to correct the situation.” Frakas (2010)
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
58
DRAFT
Contents
1
Introduction
2
The Challenge
3
The Consequences
4
Possible Solutions
5
Đ?uthors & Acknowledgements
6
Sources
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
59
DRAFT 5
Authors & Acknowledgements
Authors and acknowledgements
Dobromira Boyadjieva Dobromira is a Business Analyst with Arthur D. Little in Vienna. She supports Teach For Bulgaria with research and analysis on a probono basis. Dobromira is based in Sofia and specializes in strategy development, transaction support and market opportunity evaluation in the telecommunications, IT, media, and electronics sectors. She has advised corporate clients in Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Dobromira holds a BSc in Management from Warwick Business School in the United Kingdom. Contact: d.boyadjieva@zaednovchas.bg
Trayan Trayanov Trayan is a Chief Impact Officer at Teach For Bulgaria. Prior to joining TFB, he worked as a management consultant with the Mitchell Madison Group in New York and London and Arthur D. Little in Prague. Trayan holds an AB in Social Studies from Harvard University and an MPhil in Sociology from University of Cambridge. Contact: t.trayanov@zaednovchas.bg
We would like to acknowledge the invaluable contribution or advice of the following people: Tsvetelin Bikov – undergraduate student , Political Science, Sofia University; intern at Teach For Bulgaria Peter Stoyanov – freelance economist and lecturer at Sofia University and City University of Seattle in Bulgaria Elena Kirtcheva – PhD student, Urban Education, Temple University and research associate at Research for Better Schools, Philadelphia Jeffery Warner – Peace Corps volunteer serving with Teach For Bulgaria Plamen Danchev – Education Specialist at the World Bank in Sofia We were inspired by and are intellectually obliged to the following two studies: “Училище за утрешния ден: Резултати от участието на България в програмата за международно оценяване на учениците PISA 2009” - Д-р Светла Петрова, Център за контрол и оценка на качеството в училищното образование (2010) “S'assurer une place parmi les meilleurs systèmes d’enseignement: Enseignement Obligatoire en Communauté française de Belgique” - Mr. Etienne Denoël, Director, McKinsey & Company (2012) Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
60
DRAFT
Contents
1
Introduction
2
The Challenge
3
The Consequences
4
Possible Solutions
5
Authors & Acknowledgements
6
Sources
Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
61
DRAFT 6
Sources
Sources Short Citation Committee against Discrimination (2012) ETS (2012) European Commission (2006) EU LFS (2011) Frakas (2010) Glaeser (2009) Hanushek & Woessmann (2008) Horanski (2010) IEA (2010)
IME (2009)
Full Citation Комисията за защита от дискриминация. 2012. „Стереотипи и предразсъдъци в учебници, учебни помагала и образователни програми и планове за подготвителното и основното образование”. www.kzdnondiscrimination.com/layout/images/stories/izsledwane_na_kzd/KZD-reshenie.doc Coley, R. & Sum, A. 2012. “Fault Lines in Our Democracy: Civic Knowledge, Voting Behavior, and Civic Engagement in the United States.” ETS. http://www.ets.org/s/research/19386/rsc/pdf/18719_fault_lines_report.pdf European Commission. 2006. “Key Competences for Life-Long Learning: European Reference Framework.” http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/education_culture/publ/pdf/ll-learning/keycomp_en.pdf European Commission. 2011. “The European Union Labour Force Survey “. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/microdata/lfs Frakas, George. 2000. “Teaching Low-Income Children to Read at Grade Level.” Contemporary Sociology 29(1): 53-62. Glaeser, E. 2009. “Want a Stronger Democracy? Invest in Educatoin.”New York Times. http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/want-a-stronger-democracy-invest-in-education/ Hanushek, Eric A. and Ludger Woessmann (2008), The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development, Journal of Economic Literature 2008, 46:3, 607–668, http:www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.3.607 Horanski, Christine. 2010. “The Cross-Over Effect: Education Can Be a Fault Line or the Bedrock for Development.” http://blogs.worldbank.org/education/the-cross-over-effect-education-can-be-a-fault-line-or-the-bedrock-for-development IEA. 2010. “ICCS 2009 International Report: Civic knowledge, attitudes, and engagement among lowersecondary school students in 38 countries.” http://www.iea.nl/fileadmin/user_upload/Publications/Electronic_versions/ICCS_2009_International_Report.pdf Chobanov:, D., Kostadinova, S., Angelov, G. 2007. “Expected Long-Term Budgetary Benefits to Roma Education in Bulgaria.” Institute for Market Economics. http://ime.bg/en/articles/expected-long-term-budgetary-benefits-to-roma-educationin-bulgaria/ Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
62
DRAFT 6
Sources
Sources Short Citation Investor.bg (2012)
ISBE (2009)
Full Citation Европейска, Е. 2012. «До няколко години цели отрасли може да останат без подготвени кадри.” http://www.investor.bg/ikonomika-i-politika/332/a/do-niakolko-godini-celi-otrasli-moje-da-ostanat-bez-podgotveni-kadri,136291/ Jones, O. 2011. “Entrepreneurial Potential: the Role of Human Capital”. Institute for Small Business & Entrepreneurship. Working Paper. www.isbe.org.uk/content/assets/Enterprise_Education_track-_Ossie_Jones.pdf
Manpower (2012)
Manpower. 2012. “Talent Shortage Survey Research Results 2012, Break the Crisis and Complacency Cycle.” http://www.manpowergroup.us/campaigns/talent-shortage-2012/
Massari (2012)
Massari, P. 2012. “Superstar Teachers: Top Educators Boost Students’ Earnings, Living Standards, Study Says.” Harvard Gazette. http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2012/02/superstar-teachers/
McKinsey & Co (2009)
McKinsey & Co. 2009. “The Economic Impact of the Achievement Gap in America’s schools.” http://mckinseyonsociety.com/the-economic-impact-of-the-achievement-gap-in-americas-schools/
McKinsey & Co (2010)
McKinsey & Co. 2010. “Closing the Talent Gap: Attaining and Retaining Top-third Graduates to Careers in Teaching.” http://mckinseyonsociety.com/closing-the-talent-gap/
NBER (2003)
Dee, T. 2003. “Are There Civic Returns to Education?” National Bureau of Economic Research. “NBER Working Paper No. 9588. http://www.nber.org/papers/w9588 Hanushek, E. &Woessmann, L. 2009. “Do Better Schools Lead to More Growth? Cognitive Skills, Economic Outcomes, and Causation.” NBER Working Paper No. 14633. http://www.nber.org/papers/w14633
NBER (2009) NBER (2012)
Branch, G., Hanushek, E. & Rivkin, S. 2012. “Estimating the Effect of Leaders on Public Sector Productivity: The Case of
NLNS (2011)
School Principals”. NBER Working Paper No. 17803. http://www.nber.org/papers/w17803 New Leaders for New Schools. 2011. “Principal Effectiveness : A New Principalship to Drive Student Achievement.” http://www.newleaders.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/princpal_effectiveness_executive_summary_nlns.pdf Achievement Gap Report, Teach For Bulgaria Sept 2012
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DRAFT 6
Sources
Sources Short Citation OECD (2000)
OECD (2001) OECD (2009) OECD. Education at a Glance (2011) OECD. Overcoming Social Background (2010) OECD. Pisa 2009 Results (2010) P21.org Partanen (2011)
Teach For Bulgaria (2012)
Full Citation McMahon, Walter. 2000. “The Impact of Human Capital on Non-Market Outcomes and Feedbacks on Economic Development.” OECD. http://www.oecd.org/innovation/researchandknowledgemanagement/1825169.pdf OECD. 2001. “The Well-Being of Nations: The Role of Human and Social Capital.” http://www.oecd.org/site/worldforum/33703702.pdf OECD. 2009. “Creating Effective Teaching and Learning Environments First Results from TALIS”. http://www.oecd.org/education/preschoolandschool/43023606.pdf ОECD. 2011. “Education at a Glance 2011: OECD Indicators.” http://www.oecd.org/education/preschoolandschool/educationataglance2011oecdindicators.htm OECD. 2010. PISA 2009 Results: Overcoming Social Background: Equity in Learning Opportunities and Outcomes (Volume II). http://www.oecd.org/pisa/pisaproducts/pisa2009/pisa2009resultsovercomingsocialbackgroundequityinlearningopportunitiesa ndoutcomesvolumeii.htm OECD. 2010. PISA 2009 Results: Learning Trends: Changes in Student Performance Since 2000 (Volume V). http://www.oecd.org/pisa/pisaproducts/pisa2009/pisa2009resultslearningtrendschangesinstudentperformancesince2000volu mev.htm “Framework for 21st Century Learning”. The Partnership for 21st Century Skills. http://www.p21.org/storage/documents/1.__p21_framework_2-pager.pdf Partanen, Anu. 2011. “What Americans Keep Ignoring About Finland's School Success.” The Atlantic Monthly. http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/12/what-americans-keep-ignoring-about-finlands-schoolsuccess/250564/?goback=%2Egde_3999541_member_145331530 Stoyanov P. 2012. “The Economic Benefits of Closing the Student Achievement Gap in Bulgaria”. Teach For Bulgaria. Unpublished Report.
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DRAFT 6
Sources
Sources Short Citation UNECE (2009) Wagner (2008) World Bank (2010)
World Bank (2012)
ЦКОКУО (2009)
ЦКОКУО (2010)
Full Citation Stevens, C. 2006. “OECD Work on competencies for education for sustainable Development (ESD).” UNECE. http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/env/esd/inf.meeting.docs/EGonInd/8mtg/ESDCompetenciesOECD.pdf Wagner, T. 2008. The Global Achievement Gap. Basic Books. The World Bank. 2010. “Economic Costs of Roma Exclusion.” http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/EXTROMA/0,,contentMDK:22526807~pagePK:64168 445~piPK:64168309~theSitePK:615987,00.html Vegas, E., Ganimian, A., Jaimovich, A. 2012. “Learning from the Best: Improving Learning Through Effective Teacher Policies.” http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/02/15940672/learning-best-improving-learning-through-effectiveteacher-policies ЦКОКУО. 2009. „Създаване на ефективна среда за преподаване и учене: Резултати от международното изследване за преподаване и учене TALIS на Организацията за икономическо сътрудничество и развитие” http://www.ckoko.bg/images/stories/TALIS/Doklad_TALIS_final.pdf Петрова, С. 2010. “Училище за утрешния ден: Резултати от участието на България в програмата за международно оценяване на учениците PISA 2009.” ЦКОКУО. http://www.ckoko.bg/images/stories/book-2010.pdf
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