Is the Midwest a Refuge for Climate Change?

BY JANICE K. MEANS

Increasingly frequent and more extreme weather events—exacerbated by global warming—may lead some folks to move to areas where they perceive that they will be safer. Recently, there have been assertions that the Midwest, and Michigan in particular, would be less affected by the worst climate change-related events. In March of 2017, Popular Science published a short video claiming Michigan will be ‘the’ climate refuge for the nation in 2100.1 The “online geography resource” website, worldatlas.com, also lists Michigan as the safest state in the nation with regard to national disasters, which includes some non-climate change-related events.2 Others are stating that there are no areas safe from climate change. A group of MSU scientists have pointed to some short-term advantages, but stress that no area will escape the worst effects of climate change.3

This article looks at the worst effects of climate change, which of these are affecting (or are predicted to affect) the Midwest, and what factors are thought to make a climate change refuge area. It makes sense to also look at additional natural disaster events not necessarily caused or exacerbated by climate change, as well as the availability of fresh water, when evaluating a refuge area.

Climate Hazard Risk

To begin, we will examine weather and climate hazard risk in the Midwest, as compared to the entire United States. The FEMA Weather and Climate Hazard Risk Map (shown in Fig. 1 and graded by county) uses darker pink shades to denote greater risk areas. The eight Midwest states, as defined by the 4th National Climate Assessment, are contained in the green ‘square’, added by the author on this and the additional maps in this article.

Note that for the Midwest, only areas around the large cities (Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City) show higher risks in the weather and climate hazard risk, while the higher- and highest-risk areas are more widespread in the states of California, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida and Texas.

Therefore, according to FEMA, the Midwest generally has less climate risk, at least when compared to the states just cited.

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) have collected data on the frequency and cost of extreme weather events in the United States but concentrates on events exceeding a minimum of one billion dollars each. These extreme weather events are based primarily on damage costs. The disasters followed are (1) drought (includes heat waves), (2) flooding, (3) crop freeze, (4) severe local storms (i.e., tornado, hail, straight-line wind damage), (5) tropical cyclones, (6) wildfires and (7) winter storms.

The United States has historically experienced all of these events, but with global warming, their effects have been amplified and are now happening more frequently.

Additionally, every state has experienced at least one category of these events. We will compare graphic data for the period of 1980 through October 11, 2022, to better understand the costs of each event category in the Midwest.4

The first map in the NCEI series (Fig. 2) shows the cost of combined billion-dollar extreme weather event categories by state. This and the following specific category maps show darkening colors as the weather disaster expense increases.

From this map, we can conclude that:

 The Midwest has not been free of extreme weather events.

 Michigan and Wisconsin sustained the least costs of the Midwest states for the extreme weather events in total.

 The states which have incurred the highest costs from extreme weather events (all outside the Midwest) are Texas, Florida and Louisiana.

Next, let’s examine how the Midwest states were rated on the individual extreme weather category maps shown (Figs. 3-9) with lowest costs in the lightest shades. For the billion-dollar extreme weather events compiled for the subject period, the states of Michigan and Wisconsin historically fare as the best Midwest candidates as potential refuge states at least for some types of extreme weather events, as summarized below:

 Michigan and Wisconsin have experienced relatively low or no billion-dollar events for wildfires, tropical cyclones and crop freeze events.

 Ohio, followed by Michigan and Wisconsin, incurred the least cost damage for flooding.

 Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa had the least costs for winter storms in the Midwest, followed by Michigan and Indiana

 Michigan and Wisconsin fared better than the other Midwest states for severe storm damage, but still incurred high damage costs. The NCEI site states that nearly 70% of Michigan’s billon-dollar weather events (32 out of 46) have been severe storms resulting in over 46% of the total costs incurred by the state for combined categories, as of October 11, 2022. Therefore, this is Michigan’s biggest climate change-related severe weather event category.

In addition to damage caused by extreme weather events, consider other factors when evaluating a refuge state, i.e., temperature and humidity changes, and water resources. Although not addressed here, cost of living, housing costs and availability, the job market and more should be considered. It is also critical that the state and local governments support efforts to adapt to hazards.

Temperature And Precipitation Changes

Per the map showing the rate of temperature change this century (Fig. 10), much of Minnesota and Michigan, and to a lesser degree parts of Wisconsin, have heated up faster than the rest of the Midwest. Their average temperature increases exceed those of the world’s average—especially in the northwestern section of Michigan’s lower peninsula and Northern Minnesota. This means more heat waves of longer duration. Whereas Missouri and parts of Iowa and Indiana show less extreme temperature increases.

The 4th National Climate Assessment Report, in agreement with the latest IPCC reports, predicts that temperatures, particularly in the Midwest, will continue to go up. 5 As temperatures increase, more moisture is absorbed into the atmosphere, raising the humidity, and thus aggravating the effects of storm activity. Generally, the Midwest is, and will be, also experiencing a rise in precipitation and humidity, as shown in the precipitation map (Fig. 11). Humidity levels are expected to be higher with wetter springs, but with drier conditions during the summer months, thus affecting crops adversely. This year parts of Michigan’s lower peninsula have technically been in drought since July 1, having received lower summer and fall precipitation than expected.

Michigan’s government predicts that the general increase in temperature and humidity will result in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths, waterborne diseases, respiratory diseases, vector-borne disease (from migrating mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, etc.), and more.6

Residents of cities, including those in the Midwest, are, and will continue to be, more adversely affected by heat waves since cities are Urban Heat Islands (UHI), where higher temperatures develop than in surrounding areas.7

Water Availability

On the positive side, Midwest states bordering one or more Great Lakes (Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois) benefit from being near the largest fresh water source in the nation. The Great Lakes make up 84% of the fresh water in the nation and about 21% of that in the world. 8 Plus the Mississippi, Missouri, Illinois and Ohio rivers contribute to the Midwest’s water resources. This abundant water source not only virtually guarantees fresh water supply for drinking and washing, but also provides for shipping, industrial uses, food, cooling for energy plants,

— Policy Statement from the American Meteorological Society

HTTPS://WWW.AMETSOC.ORG/INDEX.CFM/AMS/ABOUT-AMS/AMS-STATEMENTS/STATEMENTS-OF-THE-AMS-IN-FORCE/WATER-RESOURCES-IN-THE-21ST-CENTURY1 (ACCESSED 12/04/2022) and a 7 to 10 percent chance of a 7.5+ one at New Madrid within the next 50 years.10 However, there is little earthquake damage risk for the Midwest states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and even Iowa, which borders Missouri.

No Escape

No state will escape the negative effects of climate change. The best one can do is to select a state less affected by the most dangerous and destructive effects, but which is also making its communities safer and more resilient, along with reducing/ eliminating its CO2 emissions.

and irrigation, as well as a tourist draw for fishing and water-related recreation.

However, with increased precipitation and heavy rain from violent storms, some areas of the Great Lake states are experiencing flooding, erosion of soil along riverbanks and lake borders, and water quality issues, i.e., algae blooms, runoff associated with crop and lawn treatments. Warming temperatures are also reducing the time that lakes are frozen, which limits the ice fishing season.

Other Natural Disasters

The U.S. is one of the most volcanically active countries and has experienced nearly 30,000 earthquakes just in the last year.9 These types of natural disasters are concentrated in states primarily bordering the Pacific Ocean. Obviously, there are no volcanoes near any Midwest states. Earthquakes are another story. In early 1811, there were three major earthquakes of magnitude 7.5+ centered at New Madrid, Missouri. Per the U.S. Geological Survey there is a 25 to 40 percent chance of a magnitude 6.0 earthquake

The author’s article, Creating Building Resilience and Occupant Safety to Adapt to a Changing Climate, in the Fall 2022 issue of Tech Century outlined methods for making buildings safer and more resilient in view of climate change. However, more needs to be done than just addressing buildings. After specific hazards are clearly identified, actions can be developed, e.g., making changes to have more sustainable land use, locating/relocating communities to higher ground and farther from shorelines, burying distribution power lines, switching to site- and community-distributed alternative energies (i.e., solar energy, wind) and eliminating the need for much of the current infrastructure for storm water, and thus chemical pollution to waterways and drinking water sources by employing Low Impact Design (LID). LID involves installing bioswales, rain gardens, green roofs, pervious surfaces, and infiltration basins and trenches.

An excellent example of a community designed to be safer and more sustainable is located in one of the states most affected by extreme weather events—Florida. Babcock Ranch, located about 20 miles north of Ft. Meyers, has survived the Category 4 Hurricane Ian, in September of 2022, while the area surrounding the community was decimated. Babcock Ranch’s nearly 5,000 residents were able to continue normal activities and assist oth -

What’s predicted for you?

See what is predicted regarding climate change for your neighborhood by entering your address at the CMRA (Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation) site at https://resilience.climate.gov ers since they didn’t lose power nor Internet service and incurred only minimal structural damage with no flooding. The community was built on higher ground and about 20 miles inland to protect it from water surges and flooding. Power is supplied by a shared off-grid photovoltaic system using buried power distribution lines. Sites use native vegetation and carefully designed buildings with Low Impact Design (LID) for their storm water systems. 11

Conclusion

Both Michigan and Wisconsin meet the criteria of being the states least affected by the most damaging effects of extreme weather events and other natural disasters. Both also benefit from their proximity to the nation’s largest fresh water source. However, there is no escape from climate change: both states are experiencing, and will continue to experience, more frequent and higher temperature heat waves, frequent and damaging storms, and changes in humidity and precipitation which will affect crops and cause an increase in heat-related and vectorborne diseases and deaths.

Michigan and Wisconsin could be climate change refuge areas, but only if their communities first recognize their unique dangers from climate change and then systematically adapt their cities, buildings, storm water systems, transportation infrastructure, electrical sources and distribution networks, emergency systems and farming processes to address:

 Violent storms.

 Flooding in some areas.

 Intermittent power disruptions.

 Wet springs and dry summers.

 Ways to keep people cool during heat waves and safe from storms and flooding.

Particular attention must be paid to the largest cities, especially in areas where poor residents cannot afford air conditioning.

Is the Midwest a climate change refuge? Potentially yes, with Michigan and Wisconsin at the top of the list, but it depends on what steps they take now, and in the future, to adapt to a changing climate.

References

1. https://www.popsci.com/best-places-to-live-in-america-in2100-ad-0/ accessed 10/30/2022

2. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-10-states-safest-fromnatural-disasters.html accessed 10/30/2022

3. https://statenews.com/article/2022/10/will-michigan-becomea-refuge-for-the-climate-crisis-msu-experts-discuss accessed 10/30/2022

4. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2022) https:// www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/ accessed 11/01/22

5. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/21/) accessed 12/04/2022

6. https://www.michigan.gov/mdhhs/-/media/Project/Websites/ mdhhs/Safety-and-Injury-Prevention/Environmental-Health/ Climate/Documents/Climate_effects_on_health_extreme_heat_ and_HRI.pdf?rev=12dc48b8e1a742c3a95da9822fe72f9e&hash=C9 31C8936CD6E35F01E844C564877660 accessed 11/15/2022

7. Urban Heat Islands can be thought of as city areas experiencing higher temperatures than its surrounding suburban and rural areas due to more human activities, higher populations, and vegetation areas being replaced by pavement and buildings.

8. https://www.epa.gov/greatlakes/facts-and-figures-about-greatlakes accessed 11/30/2022

9. https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/2018-volcanic-threatassessment accessed 11/26/2022 and https://earthquaketrack. com/p/united-states/recent accessed 11/26/2022

10. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-greatmidwest-earthquake-of-1811-46342/ accessed 12/01/2022

11. http://time.com/6225970/climate-proof-towns-extreme-weather/ accessed 11/15/2022

An experienced engineer and educator, Janice K. Means, PE, LEED AP, FESD, FASHRAE , has consulted internationally for analyzing blasting effects to pipelines and energy sustainability and taught environmental and alternative energy courses at university level. She is Professor Emerita at Lawrence Technological University. A 2021 Engineering Society of Detroit Gold Awardee, she is also a member of the TechCentury Editorial Board and past recipient of the John G. Petty Image Award.