Rising Challenge, the impact of climate change on the Thames Estuary by Tenesha Caton

SYN City

Writings on contemporary urbanism

Tenesha Caton

RISING CHALLENGE

The impact of climate change on the Thames estuary

There is no question that climate change is happening; the only arguable point is what part humans are playing in it. David Attenborough

SYN City

Writings on contemporary urbanism MA Urban Design 2013/14 Tenesha Caton RISING CHALLENGE The impact of climate change on the Thames estuary Contents 06

Introduction

Cities and flooding

Sources of floods

Changing urban pattern

Climate Change

Geographical context of the Thames estuary

The tidal Thames floodplain

Floodhistory in the tidal Thames

Flood-risk management in the Thames estuary

The rising challenge

Conflicts in the Thames estuary

Flood-risk assesment

Ways of adapting

Adaptation options for the Thames estuary

Design solutions

86 Conclusion 88

Bibliography + Image credits

90 Webography 92 Colophon UCA university for the creative arts 2014

Introduction Sea levels are rising faster than scientists have predicted. The stability of the coastline over the coming centuries is under threat due to various factors such as climate change, rapid urbanisation, sinking land and ageing flood defences. This is causing a rethink in the way we design our cities. And raises the question of how one should build/adjust cities for the future in which we can allow metropolises to expand but also combat flooding and the effects of climate change. Timely developments in our climate have already led to several flooding concern in the United Kingdom. The recent storms of December 2013 and January 2014 that hit several parts of England are being described as the highest storm surges in England since 1953 and are prime examples of why flooding and future effects of climate change should be top priority in the UK and the rest of the world. This project speculates on the impact of rising sea levels will have on the Thames estuary. The Thames estuary is located in one of the most dangerous areas of sea around the British Islands and offers a remarkable case study for urban planning given the metropolitan expansion beyond existing sea defenses. Scenarios for a 1, 2 and 3 meter rise in sea level will be created, allowing for the visualisation of consequences. A risk assessment documenting the impact across different asset classes will be undertaken for a 1 meter sea level rise. The consequence of failing to implement any further coastal management will be explored visually. And possible adaption strategies will be outlined with the assistance of visualisations. Focus will be given to â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;soft infrastructureâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; as it tolerates varying sea levels to a greater extent than hard infrastructure if applied appropriately.

Fig.1 The Thames River and its floodplain

Cities & flooding the threat of floods to cities

Alongside other natural disasters, floods have always been an environmental threat to man kind from primitive times. Most mythologies include stories with and about floods. For example in the Bible Noah’s Ark is based on an event caused by flooding. Floods have the power to devastate a whole city. The concerns of the impact of floods starts when it causes a threat for the habitat on earth, this is why cities are so fragile when it comes to natural disasters because of the concentration of people in one big area. (Oppenheimer, 2011:34) refers to cities as “a virtue of cities is that they can accommodate large numbers of residents in close proximity to resources, such as harbors, where they can work efficiently, moving goods and services around the world. And so, many great rivers of the world have provided for cities to develop alongside and around them.” By doing so, by accommodating large number of residents all these good quality of cities impacted the way we started responding to our built environment. To complete the quotation above, (Oppenheimer, 2011:34) refers to qualities of cities as “but cities accomplish this task by taming the coastline, replacing beach and wetland with cement and building right up to the edge of the water”. There was a need to accommodate the large number of residents that settled close by these rivers. Residents needed shelter and space for the programs of everyday life. This required adjustments to the infrastructure. All these adjustments in the infrastructure of cities have had a big impact on the natural course of the sea and it’s rivers. By taming the sea and it’s rivers and making it part of the infrastructure of the cities, it made it possible for people to control where and how the water flows and to live near rivers. These human activities have increased the risk of rivers to flood. (BBC, 2009) Due to urbanization and the growth of urban centers, cities are expanding. The more people concentrated in one area, the more shelter is needed and the more 8

manmade structures are built. This means that an everincreasing area is being built on. The more surfaces get paved the less room there is for the water to continue its cycle. Rain and snow that fall onto cities from the sky normally makes its way into the ground which absorbs it all. As a result of to many areas getting paved the water has no choice but to stay on top of the ground. As a result of this it causes surface run off and sewers to flood. The more rivers and sea’s form a threat for people living in cities, the more man- made structures that are being built to protect cities from too much water making it way into the city. (Global Climate Change,?) Reasons for settling near a river Since ancient times people have enjoyed settling near or close by rivers for different reasons. The river is a unique natural resource that provided the necessities for daily life such as fresh water, energy, and the opportunity for agriculture that the rich soils next to the rivers made possible. People took advantage of these qualities and ever since have developed their lives around rivers. According to the (BBC,?) “People living on or near floodplains may rely upon regular flooding to help support their farming and therefore provide food.” These good qualities sustained a context for civilization but also for economic activity. Rivers started playing a big role for the economy in part by providing a means of transporting goods on water, which was often quicker and easier to move larger loads than by land. Changing urban pattern is estimated that by 2030 some 60 percent of the world’s population will live in urban areas and by 2050 this will have risen to 70 percent”. As a result of urbanization available land for development is decreasing and areas available for development have an ever-increasing price. The BBC describes a couple of reason why urbanization happened and refers to it as “a lack of employment opportunities in the country side and better paid jobs in the cities” (2011). The rapid urban expansion already is and definitely will continue to challenge cities in the future

with the design of their infrastructure to protect against flooding. A study by Hollis (1975) showed that “the occurrence of small floods might increase up to ten times with rapid urbanization, whilst more severe floods, with return periods 100 years or over, might double in size if 30 percent of roads were paved.” Next to the infrastructure there are many more problems associated with the rapid growth. The (BBC, 2011) describes these as “dealing with urban waste and pollution”. A combination of climate change, rising water levels and urbanization makes cities potentially at risk of being effected by floods. Impact of floods on cities Whenever a flood occurs, cities are heavily effected because of the settlements near the river and on the floodplains and the big concentration of people in one area. River floods impact cities directly and indirectly. The economy, the built environment and it’s population. It impacts the economy because of the damage to the infrastructure that can build up in millions and millions worth of damage. According to (BBC,?) “LEDCs (A Less Economically Developed Country) tend to be affected more than MEDCs (A More Economically Developed Country) by the effects of flooding.” A cause for this is that in LEDCs there is less or even no money for new technologies on a macro scale. This leads a lack of large infrastructures being built that prevent the country from being flooded. Another cause is that in LEDCs there are large agricultures. There are more farms and communities are drawn by to fertile ground. “These fertile grounds live next to rivers and on the floodplains which are very prone to flooding. As a result people are more and more effected by flood events.” The BBC also explains that “Less Economically Developed Countries do not have the recourses to prevent flooding or deal with the aftermath of flooding.” The aftermath of a flood event can result in lose of lives, buildings and food. In these countries it is hard for people to protect their self from such events when the agriculture is the source of income and plays a big role in the daily live of people.

Fig. 2 Porthcawl, UK: Collosal waves caused by a storm surge

Fig 3. New York, USA: after being after struck by hurricane Sandy (2011) which knocked out substation darkening the city below Midtown

Fig.4 Sweden: A house hangs over a rain-swollen creek

Fig.5 York, UK: geese take to the flooded streets after the river Ouse burst its banks

Fig.6 New Orleans After several levee failures

Fig.7 Australia: Inundated Queensland after being flooded

Sources of floods The six recognized sources of flooding

Tidal flooding Tidal flooding is, as described by RIBA as: “when both sea and river defenses may be overtopped or breached by a combination of low pressure weather systems and peak high tides...Storms with high wind speeds cause tall and powerful waves and low pressure fronts cause sea levels to rise above normal levels. The onset of flooding from the sea and tidal rivers is often sudden and the extreme forces driving it present a significant danger to life.” (2009) An example of a tidal flood event is the 1953 flood which is the most recent large coastal flood in Europe. The storm surge hit The Netherlands, the east coast of England, Belgium and Germany and had claimed over 2100 people’s lives of which more than 1800 in The Netherlands (Floodsite, 2008). According to Floodsite (2008) this flood event was caused by “a northwestern storm that was blowing and it was to be spring tide. Then the wind pushed the water up to rise even higher and the sea reached a record height of 4,5 meter above sea level”. This storm caused the dikes in The Netherlands to break which then caused sea water to cover large areas along the coast.

Fluvial flooding Fluvial Flooding is described by RIBA as “Fluvial flooding occurs in the floodplain of rivers when the capacity of water courses is exceeded as a result of rainfall or snow and ice melts within catchment areas further upstream.” (2009) An example of flooding from river in recent years is the flood event from the river Humber in 2007 in the United Kingdom in which, according to the BBC NEWS (2007) “torrential rain has caused severe flooding in parts of England: Sever Valley, Sheffield, and Hull leaving people trapped in cars and homes”. The BBC NEWS (2007)

also describes that “the city Hull has suffered some of the worst flooding damage in which 17000 properties have been effected.”

Pluvial flooding Pluvial flooding can be defined as a result of the effects of urban expansion and is described by RIBA as: “pluvial flooding is caused by rainwater run-off from urban and rural land with low absorbency. Increased intensity of development in urban areas has given rise to land with a larger proportion of non permeable surfaces, a problem of exacerbated by overloaded and outdated drainage infrastructure. These circumstances, combined with intense rainfall, can give rise to localized flooding.” (2009) An example of a flood event not directly caused by rivers but by surface water is the flood event in the summer of 2007 in Gloucestershire in the United Kingdom. According to Floodprobe (2007) “Gloucestershire suffered one of the worst emergencies ever seen in the county due to extensive flooding. The summer of 2007 was one of the wettest on record” in which “Heavy rainfall at the end of June led to flooding in some areas in Gloucestershire, both from surface water overloading the drainage systems and very high water levels in main river affecting 350.000 people.”

Ground water flooding Groundwater flooding happens when levels of water in the ground rise above the surface. It can affect property and structures above and below the ground. It is most likely to happen in areas where the ground contains aquifers. These are permeable rocks that water can soak into or pass through. Ground water flooding is described by RIBA as: “Low lying areas sitting over aquifers may periodically flood as ground water levels rise. This type of flooding is often seasonal and therefore can be forecasted with good accuracy. It is often slow in its onset.” (2009) A good example of a country that deals with low lying areas is the Netherlands. The Netherlands is a geographically low-lying country, with about 20% of its area and 21% of its population located below sea level. This makes one third of the Netherlands prone to flooding. (Central

Flooding from sewers RIBA (2009) describes flooding from sewers as: “Flooding from Sewers, can occur where there are combined storm and foul sewers and their capacity is exceeded due to large time. Poor cleaning and maintenance can lead to blockages that can also cause local flooding. This type of flooding is hard to predict, has significant sanitary consequences for those affected, and can occur very rapidly.” Flooding from man-made infrastructure Flooding from man-made infrastructure is described by RIBA as: “Flooding from man-made infrastructure such as canals, reservoirs and other man made structures can fail causing flooding to areas downstream.” (2009)

Flooding from man-made infrastructure Flooding from man-made infrastructure is described by RIBA as: “Flooding from man-made infrastructure such as canals, reservoirs and other man made structures can fail causing flooding to areas downstream.” (2009) An example of a flood event caused by a fail of manmade infrastructure is the flood event that took place in New Orleans. For The People (?) describes the event as “Heavy winds mixed with severe flooding caused the flood walls that supported canals and other bodies of water to collapse. These walls were not intended to withstand a hurricane that was more powerful than a Category 3, so Katrina easily destroyed them. This allowed much more water to escape into the city of New Orleans, leaving vast sections of the city under water”. An example of a flood event not directly caused by rivers but by surface water is the flood event in the summer of 2007 in Gloucestershire in the United Kingdom. According to Floodprobe (2007) “Gloucestershire suffered one of the worst emergencies ever seen in the county due to extensive flooding. The summer of 2007 was one of the wettest on record” in which “Heavy rainfall at the end of June led to flooding in some areas in Gloucestershire, both from surface water overloading the drainage systems and very high water levels in main river affecting 350.000 people.”)

temperatures have risen during the last 30 years, and that 2000 to 2009 was the warmest decade ever recorded (Global Climate Change, 2013). As a result of global warming, the climate change is causing changing precipitation patterns. Which results in an increase of sea water levels to rise and droughts. The rising sea water levels cause rivers to flood as they become more overwhelmed by the increase in volume, which exceeds their capacity. According to Global Climate Change (2013) “over the past 100 years, the average sea level around the world rose by nearly 7 inches”. All cities are potentially at risk of flooding because of rising water levels. It is predicted that for millions of people around the world, the consequences of climate change will become increasingly devastating (Rodin, 2011:9). It could be argued that this prediction is already becoming reality as the world experiences more catastrophic flood.

Climate change Next to these sources that can cause flooding as detailed in the above, climate change plays a crucial role and has a large influence on the Earth’s air, water and land which are related to one and other. Studies have proven that 17

Changing urban pattern growth, globally

The increase of people moving to cities have enormously grown over the past years. As a result of this, the urban pattern has and still is rapidly changing. As quoted by (UN HABITAT, 2009) “In 2008 for the first time in human history, half of the world’s population lived in urban areas”. Also quoted by (UN HABITAT, 2009) is that “it is estimated that by 2030 some 60 percent of the world’s population will live in urban areas and by 2050 this will have risen to 70 percent”. The world’s population has hit seven billion in 2011. After growing very slowly for most of human history, the number of people on Earth has more than doubled in the last 50 years. As a result of urbanization available land for development is decreasing and areas available for development have an ever-increasing price. Humans have modified the landscape and concreted over land. A good example where the result of the population growth is visible in areas being paved is Great Britain. According to the (BBC,?) in London alone, at least 2/3 of front gardens have been paved in the last twenty years. Elsewhere there have been new developments on floodplains, out of town shopping centers, and business parks have concreted over 1000 more acres of green land. This results in that suddenly there is nowhere for the rain to go. The BBC describes a couple of reasons why urbanization happened and refers to it as “a lack of employment opportunities in the country side and better paid jobs in the cities” (2011). The rapid urban expansion already is and definitely will continue to challenge cities in the future with the design of their infrastructure to protect against flooding. A study by Hollis (1975) showed that “the occurrence of small floods might increase up to ten times with rapid urbanization, whilst more severe floods, with return periods 100 years or over, might double in size if 30 percent of roads were paved.” Next to the infrastructure there are many more problems associated with the rapid growth. The (BBC, 2011) describes these as dealing with urban waste and pollution. 18

Fig.8 The world’s population grew to seven billion in 2011.

Climate Change the effect of climate change on coastal cities

Everywhere we turn, we hear the words “climate change” and “global warming”. Studies around the world have proven that temperatures have risen during the last 30 years, and that 2000 to 2009 was the warmest decade ever recorded (IPCC, 2013). The cause of global warming What causes temperatures to rise? According to the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC), the amount of greenhouse gasses in the Earth’s atmosphere is the cause of rising temperatures. The major components of greenhouse gases are fossil fuel burning, land clearing, waste disposal etc. The new released Fifth Assesment Report (AR5) in September 2013 confirms that human acctivities are increasing the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.

Fig. 9 An in depth look at sea level rise in the United States published by the New York times

The Greenhouse effect The greenhouse gasses have created, what is being called the green house effect. The green house effect creates an extra layer around the Earth’s atmosphere making it difficult for solar radiation that is being reflected on Earth through the sun to reflect back into space. The solar radiation that can not be reflected back into space is being absorbed and reflected in all directions, which warms the Earth’s atmosphere. In the Fifth Assesment Report (AR5), the IPCC confirms that carbon dioxide emmisions are responsible for over half the enhanced greenhouse effect, and that overall emmisions need to be reduced to about 40% of the current level to stabilize the composition of the atmosphere. The rise of sea levels With global warming comes effects. One major effect is the rise of sea level. Locally, sea level can rise because the land is sinking. Globally, it rises because the total volume of seawater is increasing. Global warming drives that in two basic ways: by warming the ocean and by melting ice on land, which adds more water (National Geographic, 2013). Oceans have an extremely slow response to air temperature and therefore the heat trapped in the sea will not cool down anytime soon. As the seawater warms, its

volume increases. This is called thermal expansion. Scientist say that even if the greenhouse gasses are reduced, the sea will continue to expand. Sea level rise could be described as the problem of the 21st century, since this is the first century that, next to flooding, we have to concern about an increasing risk of more intense storms due to sea level rise. On average, sea levels have risen at a speed of around 0.1 – 0.2 mm per year over the past 3000 years globally, but in the twentieth century this has increased to 1 – 2 mm per year and is accelerating (NASA, 1998). Further predictions of sea level rise An international panel of glaciologists and climate scientists said there is still huge uncertainty about how sea levels will change in the coming century as a result of climate change and its effect on polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers. Their best estimate is that the melting ice will contribute between 3.5 and 36.8 cm to mean sea levels, which would come on top of the rise in sea level due to other factors such as the thermal expansion of the warmer oceans (National Geographic, 2013). However, according to the Environment Agency (2004) there is a 1 in 20 risk of this being a wild underestimate and that melting polar ice and mountain glaciers alone would contribute more than 84 cm to the global sea level, which would lead to rises of about a metre around Britain. Consequences of further rise in sea water levels With the predicted rise in sea water levels, there will be an increase of extreme weather conditions such as floods, droughts, heat waves, hurricanes and tornados. This will make big and small coastal urban settlements more vulnerable. According to National Geographic (2013), coastal inundations by the sea pose perhaps the greatest threat of all to populations, especially knowing that sea levels will rise by the end of this century. And that at the moment 136 large coastal cities are now at risk from sea level rise and 40 million people are at risk in those cities. Today flooding has become synonymous with the impact of global sea level rise. It could be argued that temperatures are indeed rising as the world experiences more extreme weather events. 21

Geographical definition of the Thames estuary The Thames estuary is a natural sub region of the metropolis and has gradually become the engine room of London, handling its waste, power generation, and ports as well as being the frontline flood defence against rising sea levels. However, the Thames estuary is together with the rest of the South-East area of England located in one of the most dangerous areas of sea around the British Isles (TE2100, 2004). Between the southeast area of England and France, the extreme water height is higher than in any other stretch of British waters and therefore it makes the Thames estuary particularly vulnerable to flooding caused by storm surges.

Fig.10 The exisiting of a tidal storm surge entering the Thames Estuary

According to the MET office, a storm surge is possible one of the most dramatic weather events in the United Kingdom. Whenever a storm surge occurs, a low pressure of water moves eastwards across the Atlantic towards the British Isles and raises the level of seawater beneath it by up to a third of a metre. If this plateau of sea water passes north of Scotland and then down into the Thames Estuary, it can cause high surge tides in the Thames Estuary of up to four metres leading towards London. With the South-eastern corner of the British Isles slowly tilting downwards and the rise of sea levels, much of the British coastline will experience stormier weather and floods in the near future.

Fig.11 The Thames Estuary

The tidal Thames floodplain Assets and people at risk and the existing flood defences

Barking Creek Barrier

Tilbury Dock Floodgate

Thames Barrier

KGV Dock Floodgate

The blue on the map shows the floodplain of the river Thames and forms a large corridor from the West to the East of South-East England. This extent of the areas is likely to flood when a flood event occurs. To make sure this area does not suffer from tidal floods, the Thames tidal flood defence system has been constructed over a period of 30 years (TE2100, 2002) The flood defence sys 24

East Haven Barrier

Benfleet Barrier

Dartford Creek barrier

-tem is made up of the Thames Barrier (of which the devastating flood catastrophe in 1953 was the catalyst for the construction) and eight other major flood barriers owned and operated by the Environmental Agency. The Thames tidal flood defence also includes 36 industrial flood gates, more than 400 smaller moveable structures and over 330 km of walls and embankments which

Fobbing Horse Barrier

makes the Thamesriver the best defended river in the United Kingdom. According to the Environment Agency (TE2100 Plan, 2002) the assets and people at risk in the tidal Thames floodplain includes: 350 sq. km land area, 55 sq. km designated habitat sites, 1.25 million residents (plus commuters, tourists and other visitors), over 500.000 homes, 40.000 commercial and industrial prop

erties, 200 billion current property value, key Government buildings, over 3100 hectares of sensitive heritage sites, 400 schools, 16 hospitals, 8 power stations, more than 1000 electricity substations, 4 World Heritage sites, art galleries and historic buildings, 167 km of railway, 35 Tube stations, 51 Rail stations (25 mainline, 25 DLR, 1 international) and over 300 km of roads. 25

Flood history in the Thames estuary

This diagram shows selected examples of the history of flood events on the tidal Thames and focuses on the flood events that took place from the 19th century until present (source: Environment Agency).

1874

1879

1928

1954

1953

1930

1966

A flood, driven by gales and produced by a high tide that was said not to have been exceeded for more than 200 years submurged Whitehall

In 1874, the tide in the Thames rose 4 feet 3Â˝ inches above Trinity mark, and inundated the south bank of the river along Lambeth, Bankside, and Rotherhithe, and even as far as Woolwich, causing a considerable loss of property and at least one life.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms on 19 November and on many days thereafter the Thames flooded at Westminister and Lambeth

1968

A flood occurred, which may have been tidal in the lower reaches of the Thames, and carried away bridges at Eton, Deptford and Lewisham

1971

1974

Constructionof Thames Barrier and associated defences commence.

Immediate improvements to the defences were put in place before final works could be completed. This took the form of interim bank raising which began in April 1971 and was completed in December 1972. Down river of London similar interim improvements were carried out by the Essex River Authority and the Lee Conservancy Catchment Board to complete this standard of protection.

On 12th January 1928, numerous areas in London and the surrounding local authorities were flooded. In Lambeth, 14 people drowned in their basement flats.

Floods caused by a high storm surge tide in November drowned many people and a great number of cattle in the Woolwich area.

Floods caused by a high storm surge tide in November drowned many people and a great number of cattle in the Woolwich area

1982

1983

1984

Today

First use of Thames Barrier to protect London Official opening of the from flooding. Thames Barrier by HM The Queen

The Thames Barrier becomes operational

Since the barrier was officially opened it has been raised over 100 times to protect the capital from flooding. It will continue to protect to the same high standard until 2070. After 2070 the standard of protection will slowly decrease over time due to rising sea levels and a greater magnitude and frequency of surge conditions. Our Thames Estuary 2100 project has studied and recommended options for flood risk management in the Thames estuary up to 2100.

Due to the numerous floods in the 19th century, many of which occurring in London and up river in areas such as Eton and Windsor the Thames 1879 Flood Act was drafted.

Department for Environment, Flood and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) has overall national responsibility for policy on flood and coastal erosion risk management, and provides funding for flood risk management

DEFRA

authorities through grants to the Environment Agency and local authorities. The Environment Agency is responsible for taking a strategic overview of the management of all sources of flooding and coastal erosion. The Agency also has operational responsibility for managing the risk of flooding from main rivers,

ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY

reservoirs, estuaries and the sea, as well as being a coastal erosion risk management authority. Lead Local Flood Authorities are responsible for developing, maintaining and applying a strategy for local flood risk taining a register of flood risk assets. They

LLFA

the risk of flooding from surface water, groundwater and ordinary watercourses. Fig. 12 A jogger on Blackpoolâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s north shore braves high winds and big waves to go for a run along the coast during the high tide in Januari 2013

Flood-risk management in the Thames Estuary

District Councils are key partners in planning local flood risk management and can carry out flood risk management works on minor watercourses, working with LLFA and others, including through taking deci-

DISTRICT COUNCILS

sions on development in their area which

Flood Risk Management Authorities

also have lead responsibility for managing

Flood and Water Management Act 2010

management in their areas and for main-

ensure that risks are effectively managed. District and unitary councils in coastal ar-

The diagram on the next page describes what needs to be done by all organisations involved in flood and coastal erosion risk management in The United Kingdom. These include the Department for Environment, Flood and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) who has overall national responsibility for policy on flood and coastal erosion risk management and local authorities such as the Environment Agency, Lead Local Flood Authorities, District Councils, Highway Authorities, and Water and Sewage Companies. They all act under the Flood and Water Management Act 2010 which recognises the importance of all organisations working in partnership. One of the key areas of the Flood and Water Management Act 2010, required the Environment Agency to create a National Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy, which a number of organisations would have to follow. With the introduction of the Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) produced in 2002, the Environment have accomplished their most important task. The TE2100 is the first major flood risk project in the UK to have put climate change adaptation at its core. A primary purpose of the TE2100 project has been to plan proactively for the future rather than waiting for the next flood catastrophe to provoke society into action 28

eas also act as coastal erosion risk management authorities. Highway Authorities are responsible for providing and managing highway drainage and roadside ditches, and must ensure

HIGHWAY AUTHORITIES

that road projects do not increase flood risk. Water and Sewerage Companies are responsible for managing the risks of flooding from water and foul or combined sewer systems providing drainage from

WSC

buildings and yards.

The rising challenge

NORTH SEA

for the Thames estuary

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

The Thames estuary is surrounded by 3 regions, Greater London, Essex and Kent. Of which Essex and Kent faces the North Sea. As the sea level rises, different parts of low lying land on the Thames Estuary will become uninhabitable. According to the Environment Agency (2002), Sea level rise in the Thames over the next century due to thermal expansion of the oceans, melting glaciers and polar ice is likely to be between 20 and 90 cm. However, the Environment Agency has developed a worst case scenario for increases in maximum water levels of 2.7 meter over the next century. The following diagrams 2 - 7 unfolds the scenarios created for a 1, 2 and 3 meter rise in sea levels for the Thames estuary for the year 2100. It also visualises the areas that would become inundated by the sea and gives a indication of what the coastline could look like in the year 2100. A rise in sea level might not seem like a big problem in future defence of the Thames estuary, but the real problem comes when there is a combination of rise in sea water levels, high tide, and a storm surge. 30

Diagram 1: The existing East and South-East British coastline and the Thames estuary

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

Scenario 1: The year 2100 after 1 meter rise in sea level If predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPPC) are right then the East and South-East British coastline could look like diagram 2 (visualised above) . The black areas indicate all low lying land that will become inundated following a sea level rise of 1 meter.

Diagram 2: How 1 meter sea level rise would effect the coastline. Black on map indicates the land that would become inundated

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

Scenario 1: New coastline after 1 meter rise in sea level With the sea water having covered the vulnerable low lying land of the Thames estuary, this is what the new coastline could look like in year 2100 after 1 meter sea level rise.

Diagram 3: The new coastline with 1 meter in sea level rise after chunks of inundated land have disapeared from the map

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

Scenario 2: The year 2100 after 2 meter rise in sea level What if the sea levels rise above the predicted 1 meter? Diagram 4 indicates where the water will continue to reach further inland and inundate more vulnerable low lying land of the Thames estuary after a rise in sea level of 2 meter.

Diagram 4: How 2 meter sea level rise would effect the coastline. Black on map indicates the land that would become inundated.

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

Scenario 2: New coastline after 2 meter rise in sea level With the seas having covered even more of the vulnerable low lying land, this is what the new coastline could look like in year 2100 after 2 meter in sea level rise.

Diagram 5: The new coastline with 2 meter in sea level rise after chunks of inundated land have disapeared from the map

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

Scenario 3: The year 2100 after 3 meter rise in sea level Scenario 3 is the worst case scenario. It indicates where the water will continue to reach further inland and inundate more vulnerable low lying land after a rise in sea level of 3 meter.

Diagram 6: How 3 meter sea level rise would effect the coastline. Black on map indicates the land that would become inundated.

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

Scenario 3: New coastline after 3 meter rise in sea level With the seas having covered even more of the vulnerable low lying land, this is what the new coastline could look like in year 2100 after 3 meter in sea level rise.

Diagram 7: The new coastline with 3 meter in sea level rise after chunks of inundated land have disapeared from the map

Conflicts in the Thames estuary

The Thames estuary is very vulnerable to flooding and the future effects of rising sea levels. However, that does not stop the visions individuals have to further expand this sub region of the metropolis.

Existing

New proposed barrier

Thames Barrier

Environment Agency/ Foster and partners

The red on the map indicates where the low lying vulnerable areas in the Thames estuary are located. These areas are the first to be inundated by the sea with a rise in sea level waters and therefore to risky to further build on. However, the Thames Gateway argues that there is enough abandoned land in the Thames estuary to accommodate the growth of the expanding metropolis. The Thames Gateway (grey on map) will be adding 160 000 new homes by 2016, adding approx. another 0.5 million people to the existing 1.5 million people living and working on the floodplain that are at risk of flooding. Plans for a second barrier has been proposed both by the Environment Agency and Foster and partners. The new barrier will extend protected land by the existing barrier by 150% (dark blue on map) (Thames HUB). It seems that the plans to accommodate the growth of the metropolis in the Thames estuary has been anything but coherent. The Thames Gateway takes little account of the estuary and itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s vulnerability to flooding. And how this will increase this century due to climate change and rising sea water levels.

EXISTING FLOOD PROTECTED LAND

PROPOSED FLOOD PROTECTED LAND

COASTLINE EXPOSED TO THE NORTH SEA

Flood-risk assessment

Assets at risk from flooding in the Thames estuary

The Thames estuary is known as “The engine of London” (Terry Farrell, 2005) for it’s ports, power stations, sewage treatments, marshes, beaches and nature parks. With only 1 meter in sea level rise, storm surges will become more intense in the future, leaving assets and people at increasingly risk of flooding. The next maps 1 - 7 demonstrates the impact across different asset classes at risk at a rise in sea level waters of 1 meter. The following asset classes have been explored. Settlements / communities: There are a lot of small and large urban settlements along the Thames estuary that are at risk of being inundated by the rise of sea level and / or a combination of sea level rise and storm surges. With the predicted rise in sea water levels, storms will be more intense and urban settlements will be more exposed to the sea and will become extremely vulnerable. Sewage treatment plants: There are 10 sewage treatment plants in the Thames estuary at risk of being flooded. Power stations: There are major power stations in the Thames Estuary, together these provide almost 10% of the UK’s generation capacity and supply enough power for around 8 million homes (Thames estuary steering group). Flood defences: There are 8 major flood defences at risk of being overtopped by rising sea levels in the future. Ports: There are 8 main ports in the Thames estuary that together form the Port of London and stretches along the Thames. According to the Port of London Authority, the port of London adds 3.7 billion to the UK economy every year and provides almost 50.0000 jobs.

Fig.13 Waves overtopping the embankment in West England

Oil refineries: There are 5 major oil refineries at risk of flooding in the Thames Estuary Airports: There are 3 major airports at risk of flooding in the Thames Estuary 46

Flood risk assessment settlements / communities

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

settlements/communities

Flood risk assessment sewage treatment plants

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

settlements/communities

sewage treatment

Flood risk assessment powerstations

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

settlements/communities

sewage treatment

powerstations

Flood risk assessment flood defences

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

settlements/communities

sewage treatment

powerstations

flood defences

Flood risk assessment ports

NORTH SEA

SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

settlements/communities

sewage treatment

powerstations

flood defences

ports

Flood risk assessment NORTH SEA

oil refineries SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

settlements/communities

sewage treatment

powerstations

flood defences

ports

oil refineries

Flood risk assessment NORTH SEA

airports SOUTHMINSTER

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

FOULNESS ISLAND

GREATER LONDON

SOUTHENDON-SEA CANVEY ISLAND

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

RIVER THAMES DARTFORD

TILBURY

ISLE OF GRAIN

NORTHFLEET ROCHESTER

MARGATE

ISLE OF SHEPPY GILLINGHAM

IWADE

HERNE BAY

BROADSTAIRS

WHITSTABLE

CHATHAM

RAMSGATE

KENT

settlements/communities

sewage treatment

powerstations

flood defences

ports

oil refineries

airports

Ways of adapting Existing responses to floods available to cities

Hard infrastructure

Soft infrastructure

Embankment: an artificial barrier that is typically used to hold back water or to support a roadway, railway, or canal (BBC, 2009). There are various types of embankment construction techniques utilized all over the world. Embankments require large interventions in the infrastructure and can be up to kilometers long.

Natural preventions:

Flood control reservoir: a flood control reservoir collects water at times of very high rainfall. The rainfall is slowly released over the course of the following weeks or months(The British Dam Society, 2010).

Wetlands: naturally occurring vegetated zones and offer a buffer zone to existing shore lines, preventing erosion and accommodating tidal changes. Wetlands have their own ecosystem and foster diverse species of plants and animals. Wetlands may be useful as recreational zones or as storm surge and flooding protection.

Dikes: Environmental History Resources describes a dike as â&#x20AC;&#x153;a dike is a man made construction of soil and stone that is constructed away from the river in order to create a foreland that acted as a buffer to store floodwater. Levees: A levee is a ridge that holds water back and is always found naturally alongside a river or a stream. Designed as a sub-flow to the river to assist with drainage of water that the river cannot handle.

Barrier islands: sand based islands that form parallel to the coast. They are useful as a strategy to extend the coastline as well as provide effective storm surge protection.

Sand dunes: a natural barrier to the destructive forces of wind and waves. They absorb the impact of storm surge and high waves, preventing or delaying flooding of inland areas. They are also sand storage areas that supply sand to eroded beaches during storms.

Flood resilient buildings: Dam closure: These are large flood walls that prevent flooding. Dams also provide a host of other benefits, such as providing agricultural stimulation and the ability to generate hydroelectricity.

Fig.14 The largest surge barrier in the world that was designed for a 1 in 10 000 year storm. The Oosterseschelderkering in The Netherlands

For coastal cities around the world climate change and rising sea levels is requiring us to adapt. It demands that we reinvent the way we design our infrastructure so that we can meet the conditions our cities will face in the near future. (G. Lowry, Rising Currents) argues that climate change is a complex problem and it wants us to reconsider where and how we live as societies. He describes climate change as â&#x20AC;&#x153;one of the most urgent problems in design todayâ&#x20AC;?. This section presents a detailed overview of the different techniques available to cities for the protection of buildings and areas from flooding. The techniques can be divided in hard and soft infrastructure types. Hard infrastructure responses are those requiring large scale investments. These often have large impact on the landscape and affect multiple settlements. Soft infrastructure accepts a blurring of the edge between land and water and forms a more localised response to the threat of flooding, such as the design techniques used for an individual structure or the use of landscape design to absorb water. 62

Stilt houses: houses raised on piles over the surface of the soil or a body of water. Stilt houses are built primarily as a protection against flooding.

Storm Surge barriers: hard engineered structures with a primary function of preventing coastal flooding. Their secondary role is to shorten the required length of defences behind the barrier. Surge barriers are movable or fixed barriers or gates which are closed when an extreme water level is forecast in order to prevent flooding.

Breakwaters: structures designed to force waves to break offshore and reduce the impact of wave energy on protected portions of coastline. Breakwaters are often used to create harbors sheltered from wave/energy. Certain break water systems can also be used to expand beach area by reducing wave energy and causing suspended sediment to settle.

Buoyant foundation: a type of amphibious foundation that is specially designed to be retrofitted to an existing south Louisiana shotgun house. It allows the house to sit just above the ground like a normal elevated house under normal conditions, but to rise up and float safely on the water when there is a flood.

Floating buildings: is in direct contact with the water; residents feel the property rolling on any disturbance of the water and the sharp whipping noise of creaking ice can be very loud inside an icebound houseboat.

Groins + Jetties: structures built to norish eroding beaches by gradually capturing sand suspended in currents flowing parllel to the shore. 63

Adaptation options for the Thames Estuary

SOUTHMINSTER

An identification of design scenarios

BURNHAM-ON-CROUCH

ESSEX

GREATER LONDON

B B

ROYAL DOCKS

GREENWHICH

NORTH SEA

DARTFORD

TILBURY

SOUTHEND-

RIVER THAMES

ISLE OF GRAIN

ROCHESTER

B B

GILLINGHAM

IWADE

This map shows potential adaptation options for the Thames estuary. Option A shows the potential areas that could benefit from a 2nd or 3rd barrier to protect new land from the sea. The mouth of the estuary facing the North Sea could benefit from option B, soft infrastructure, as this is the area that is very vulnerable to storms coming from the Atlantic Ocean. With the mouth of the estuary being so wide where the Thames River meets the North Sea, it would be almost impossible to protect this part of the estuary with large coastal defenses, unless the government is willing to invest in such a large and costly barrier.

KENT

ISLE OF SHEPPY

CHATHAM

As seen in the flood risk assessment, leaving the current situation as it is will have big consequences across different asset classes within the UK. A simple rise in sea level of 1 meter in the Thames estuary, can lead to big chunks of land that will become inundated by the sea (turquoise on map), which will force people to leave their homes and relocate to higher grounds.

ON-SEA

CANVEY ISLAND

NORTHFLEET

FOULNESS ISLAND

HERNE BAY

WHITSTABLE

B C

MARGATE

BROADSTAIRS

RAMSGATE

PROTECTION

RETREAT

An identification of areas on the Thames Estuary that can benefit from hard-infrastructure.

An identification of areas on the Thames Estuary that can benefit from soft-infrastructure.

An identification of vulnerable areas that will become uninhabitable due to rising sea levels which might forse people to relocate to higher ground in the near future.

Option C shows the most vulnerable low-lying land in the Thames that will become most likely inundated by the sea, forcing people to relocate to higher ground by the rise of 1 meter in sea levels. The consequence of failing to implement any further coastal management will be explored visually in the following scenarios. 64

Scenario 1

Low lying land becoming inundated by the sea

Canvey Island is the best defended Island in the Thames Estuary with sea walls reaching a height of almost 3 meter. But with the rise of sea levels and more intense storms which will create higher waves the sea defence wall could be overtopped regularly in the near future.

Scenario 2

Coastal communities less desirable places to live

With the coast being constantly flooded communities would be forced to relocate and move to higher ground turning the seafronts across the Thames in abandoned cities with visible remains.

Scenario 3

Vital infrastructures inundated by the sea

Major power stations in the Thames Estuary provide together almost 10% of the UKâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s generation capacity. But with their location on the floodplain, could they cope with the rise of sea levels? With more extreme storms they could be put out of action in the future, depriving millions of homes of electricity.

Scenario 4 Agriculture

Most of the farmlands that are significant for the Thames estuary are located on vulnerable low lying land. These areas could experience regular floods in the near future causing a lot of damage to the agriculture in this part of England.

Design solutions

Adaptation methods for the Thames estuary

The British coast is already experiencing more intense storms. According to the Environment Agency, the recent storms of December 2013 and January 2014 are the highest storm surges in England since 1953. The edges of the British coastline are experiencing two high tides and two low tides each day. With the sea level waters rising, these tides will reach further into the main land. In the near future this will cause regularly flooding to different asset classes along the coast line. The design challenge and demands to be met for the Thames estuary are the following: - Rising sea levels and increasing storm intensity due to climate change - More robust storm surges and coastal flood potential - Better protection of the coastal communities - Storm water harvesting; - To develop an adaptive strategy to address sea level rise and a protective approach to flooding.

The soft edge

Barrier Islands

Resilient architecture

Super groins

The next images are a collection of soft infrastructure strategies that could be applied to the Thames estuary for adaptation to climate change and rising sea levels. These strategies operate at the merged surface of the land, and envision the water edge as a fluid and temporal limit between water and land. The opportunities that come with using soft infrastructure; are safer and greener cities that are more livable and healthier as green acts as a natural barrier to rising sea levels and a filter to air pollution.

The edge Existing situation

The existing edge of the East and South-East coastline is protected from the sea in quite a similar method like all coasts in England. With sea walls constructed along the coasts forming a barrier between land and water. The heights of these walls varies from 0.5 to up to 3 meter. With the effects of climate change, storm surges will be more intense in the future with worst case scenario of the sea walls being overtopped.

Fig.15 Existing sea walls at the coast of Canvey Island

The soft edge

The proposal proposes an extension of the coastline by using green design to provide effective storm surge and wave absorption. It accepts a blurring of the edge between land and water and exist of terraced naturally occurring vegetated zones that offers a buffer zone to the existing shore line, preventing erosion and accommodating tidal changes.

Barrier Islands

This scheme proposes sand based islands that are formed parallel to the coast. They are useful as a strategy to extend the coastline as well as provide effective storm surge protection.

Architecture

This proposal looks into adjusting the way we design architecture, and proposes methods that accepts that if we build on floodplains it will be regularly flooded. This example shows how an area can be adjusted to its surroundings by building on stilts allowing experiences of flooding during periods of high discharge.

Super groins

Super groins is a proposal that combines hard and soft infrastructure together and proposes large strips of wetland placed perpendicular to the coastline and hold together by wooden robust frames. The frames stretches up to 500 meters into the sea and are suitable for absorbing waves. This is mainly suitable for the areas in South-Essex that have the benefit of the intertidal zones being up to 2000 meters.

Conclusion I started this project because the recent changes in climate change has sparked concerns. Over the last years (coastal) cities have been impacted by flooding. This is the first century in which flooding has caused major concern and this is the first century in which climate change will have a real impact on how we build our cities of the future. However there is a challenge with growing metropolitan areas. It has sparked a debate on whether this is the time to start thinking contrarily about how we expand living areaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s as well as deal with the increasing risk of flooding. In this research I have asked the question: how will rising sea levels impact the Thames estuary? Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve studied documents from the environmental agency on climate change and looked at interactive maps produced by NASA in which they show how sea level rise up to 60 meters would effect the world. Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve used this as the platform for my research and have applied 1 to 3 meter rise in sea water levels to the United Kingdom to understand how it would effect the Thames estuary. In my research I found that the low lying areas at the mouth of the estuary to be the most vulnerable because of their immediate contact with the North sea. In my research I discovered that there is a large project to build 20,000 residents in the Thames estuary adding another half a million people to the existing 1.5 million people essentially living under high risk of flooding. This is an example of how Britain needs to change its approach towards expansion of metropolises and to design with the future in mind.

I have chosen to engage with the public through this installation I have created. It exists of 4 panels. Each panel is reserved for a different theme and together show multiply perspectives on the theme rising sea levels through projection. The installation will be showcased in the Herbert Gallery at the University for the Creative Arts from Monday 27 January 2014 - Saturday 1 February.

I argue that soft infrastructure which is a new concept in the way we build our cities; innovative green design, which gives a natural balance between land and water could help prepare cities for storms and further impact of climate change. With this project I hope to have raise awareness of the danger of flooding to Great Britain today and in the future. By using a different format of communicating the future impacts of climate change (see image on next page) and rising sea levels. I hope to have created awareness through integrating visuals, film footage, text and audio to unravel my research in a way that everyone can understand.

Bibliography

Image credits

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Fig.11. Thames estuary [Map] hhttp://bing.com (Accessed on 06.11.13) Fig.12. A jogger on Blackpool’s north shore braves high winds and big waves to go for a run along the coast during the high tide in Januari 2013 [Image] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/ news/article-2269000/What-difference-day-makesSatellite-pictures-dramatic-change-British-landscapeBig-Freeze-turns-Big-Thaw.html#ixzz2hdtN4AJf (Accessed on 06.10.13) Fig. 13. Waves overtopping the embankment in West England [Image] At: http://www.sepa.org.uk/images/image%20 for%20coastal%20flooding%20page%20kirkcaldy.jpg (Accessed on 09.02.13) Fig. 14.The largest surge barrier in the world [Image] https://beeldbank.rws.nl/Photos/2198/329799. jpg(Accessed on 15.01.14)

Fig. 5. Geese take to the flooded streets after the river Ouse burst its banks[Image] http://energy.korea.com/wp-content/ uploads/2012/07/134.jpg (Accessed on 17.10.13) Fig. 6. New Orleans After several levee failures [Image] http://discoverhistorictravel.com/wp-content/ uploads/2012/08/new-orleans-flooding.jpg (Accessed on 23.10.13) Fig. 7. Australia: Inundated Queensland after being flooded [Image] http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/ images/65568000/jpg/_65568241_65568240.jpg (Accessed on 23.12.13) Fig. 8. The world’s population grew to seven billion in 2011. [Image] http://www.un.org/News/dh/photos/ large/2011/October/491992-sevenbillion.jpg (Accessed on 04.01.14) Fig. 9. An in depth look at sea level rise in the United States [Image] hhttp://i.bnet.com/blogs/rising-sea-level1.jpg (Accessed on 10.11.13) Fig. 10. Great Brittain [Map] hhttp://bing.com (Accessed on 06.11.13)

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EXPRESS (2009) Climate change, not jobs will force migrants to Britain, warns MP At: http://www.express.co.uk/news/ uk/421545/Climate-change-not-jobs-will-force-migrants-to-Britain-warns-MP (Accessed: 03.09.13) Kosmograd Newsfeed (2013) Cities and floods At: http:// newsfeed.kosmograd.com/kosmograd/2008/06/citiesand-floo.html (Accessed: 18.12.2013) London Evening Standard (s.d) Population growth in London ‘double the rate in rest of UK’ At: http://www.standard. co.uk/news/london/population-growth-in-londondouble-the-rate-in-rest-of-uk-8889100.html (Accessed: 01.01.14) Mail Online (2013) The great flood of London: Experts warn risk to Capital from rising sea levels ‘worse than feared’ At:http:// www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2324741/ Risk-London-worse-feared-rising-sea-levels.html (Accessed: 05.11.13) Reporting Climate Science (2013) Sea levels will rise 70-120 by 2100 At: http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/sea-levelswill-rise-70-120cm-by-2100-due-to-global-warming.html (Accessed: 03.11.13) UN (2009) How-to Guide for Environmental Refugees At: http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/how-to-guide-for-environmental-refugees (Accessed: 09.12.13)

Southend On Sea Borough Council (s.d) Coastline - protection At: http://www.southend.gov.uk/info/848/coastline-protection (Accessed: 17.12.13) The Carbon Brief (2007) No corner of the ocean will escape climate change, say scientists At: http://www.carbonbrief. org/blog/2013/10/oceans-know-theres-no-escapingclimate-change/ (Accessed: 04.10.13) The Times (s.d) Flash Flood: Hurricane Katrina’s inundation of New Orleans At: http://www.nola.com/katrina/graphics/ flashflood.swf (Accessed: 08.09.13) The Telegraph (s.d) Postcards from the future: illustrators imagine how London could be affected by climate change At: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthpicturegalleries/8044199/Postcards-from-the-future-illustratorsimagine-how-London-could-be-affected-by-climatechange.html?image=14(Accessed: 12.12.13) World Health Organization (s.d) Climate change and human health - risks and responses. Summary. At: http://www.who. int/globalchange/summary/en/ (Accessed: 16.09.13) Water Briefing (s.d) Coastal communities urged to prepare for worst east coast tidal surge in 30 years. At: http://waterbriefing.org/home/flooding/item/8467-coastal-communities-urged-to-prepare-for-worst-east-coast-tidal-surge-in30-years (Accessed: 08.09.13)

Colophon

SYN City

Writings on contemporary urbanism

Published by

MA Urban Design

University for the Creative Arts

The MA Urban Design course at UCA Canterbury addresses contemporary issues in urbanism. Its research and design agenda aims to advance the understanding of the economic, ecological, social and political dynamics, which shape the built environment, and actively engages with the existing responsibilities and the emerging practices of urban design. Embracing critical and activist, formal and programmatic methodologies alike, students analyse the complex forces within the field of urban transformation processes and synthesise them into strategic, spatial and temporal design proposals. This includes established techniques for the analysis and understanding of spatial systems and socioeconomic milieus, as well as experimental and innovative forms of mapping and intervening within the urban condition. SYN City - Writings on contemporary urbanism edits and disseminates the outcome of these investigations in a series of publications and makes them accessible to a wider public audience.

Canterbury School of Architecture New Dover Road Canterbury Kent CT1 3AN United Kingdom

Gabor Stark Editor + Subject Area Leader MA Urban Design gstark@ucreative.ac.uk Author of this issue Tenesha Caton teneshacaton@gmail.com Canterbury, UK January 2014

www.ucreative.ac.uk www.cantarch.org http://architecture-studio-syn-city.tumblr.com

How would climate change effect coastal cities within the next 100 years? This project speculates on the impact of rising sea levels in the Thames estuary. It seeks for adaptation strategies that could be applied in England and other vulnerable areas in the world.