The 2011 US Open Preview First
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A N A
I V A N O V I C
TURNED PRO AT 15. WORLD CL A S S AT 16. R ANKED NO. 4 AT 19. AT 20, NO. 1, WITH A
2008 FRENCH OPEN WIN. STUNNING. ON AND OFF T HE COURT.
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5 Experts’ Picks
Tennis.com Senior Writers Peter Bodo and Stephen Tignor, and Online Editor Ed McGrogan break down both the men’s and women’s fields, offering up their predictions for US Open winners as well as players who may offer some surprises.
Nine to Watch
11
Andy Murray
7
Novak Djokovic
12
Caroline Wozniacki
8
Serena Williams
13
Mardy Fish
9
Roger Federer
14
Victoria Azarenka
Maria Sharapova
15
Rafael Nadal
10
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16 When It’s On . . .
Tennis Channel, ESPN2 and CBS deliver this year’s action to the comfort of your living room.
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MEN’S CHAMPION
MEN’S DARK HORSE
WOMEN’S CHAMPION
WOMEN’S DARK HORSE
Peter Bodo Senior Writer
Andy Murray Who knows what kind of shape Novak Djokovic’s shoulder really is in? Given the number of surprises we’ve witnessed this year, I’m adding a final one: Andy Murray, US Open men’s singles champion.
Roger Federer Given that nobody is talking about his chances at the US Open, I think it’s fair game to pick Federer as a “dark horse” to win it all. If he doesn’t, he will end the year without a major for the first time since 2003.
Serena Williams I’d like to think that you can’t just stroll in, pick up the US Open trophy, then head out to the Hamptons to attend a party thrown by P. Diddy or Kim Kardashian. But we know better, don’t we?
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova We saw a promising youngster mature when Petra Kvitova up and won Wimbledon a few months ago, and maybe we can see the same process work here at Flushing Meadows.
Stephen Tignor Senior Writer
Novak Djokovic He showed some signs of burnout both mental and physical, in the final of the Western & Southern in Cincinnati, but Djokovic’s head should be cleared and focused by the bright lights of New York. It’s still his year.
Andy Roddick The former American No. 1 has struggled mightily of late, with his game, his body and his attitude. But the fans won’t forget him in New York, and he finds himself out of Djokovic’s and Federer’s way in the draw.
Serena Williams It took her about five minutes to reassert her primacy on hard courts this summer, with wins over most of the WTA’s top challengers. She’ll have a bad day and a scare or two, but she’s got the taste and the knack for winning back.
Caroline Wozniacki Can a top seed also be a dark horse? In this case, yes; after her recent split with her father/coach, she’s certainly not among the favorites. We’ve seen other players play more freely after making a coaching change.
Novak Djokovic Who’s hitting the hardest right now? That’s the question that must be asked when considering Flushing Meadows’ fast surface. It has to be Djokovic, who should be at full strength and speed by next week.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Federer’s quarter of the draw is a minefield, with no one more explosive than Tsonga, who just beat the Swiss in Montreal. He also quit there against Djokovic, presumably to save himself for bigger tournaments like this one.
Serena Williams A potential thirdround match against Victoria Azarenka will be Serena’s first significant obstacle, but she should clear it, having beaten the No. 4 seed in straights in Toronto. It could possibly end up being her toughest match of all.
Kaia Kanepi Wozniacki is the top seed in number only, with her quarter ripe for the taking. Kanepi, who was ranked No. 16 in January, reached the US Open quarters last year with some of the heavier strokes in the WTA.
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Experts’ Picks
Ed McGrogan Online Editor
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GETTING YOU TO THE BALL FASTER IS IN THEIR DNA
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Novak Djokovic In the first half of this season, Novak Djokovic was a doomsday stroking machine, impervious to all frailty of the flesh—a condition he attributed to his training regimen and gluten-free diet. If ever a man had a right to be tired, it was Djokovic when he rolled into Madrid in May with a 33-0 record and then won the title over Rafael Nadal; if ever a man had a right to be dead, it was Djokovic the next week, as he blasted his way through the Rome draw, overcoming Nadal in the final. Djokovic had a well-earned rest of about three weeks after he suffered his first loss of 2011 (at the hands of Roger Federer) in the Roland Garros semifinals. But he won his next tournament, Wimbledon, and then had a break of about a month before his triumphant return in Montreal. Given the wall he hit in the final of Cincinnati, you have to wonder if that triumph in Canada wasn’t accomplished with smoke and mirrors, by a guy relying less on enthusiasm than muscle memory, confidence, and reputation. Is Djokovic back-back or just back? We’ll soon find out.
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Serena Williams In her final tune-up for the US Open two Sundays ago, Serena Williams won her second title in as many tournaments with a 6-4, 6-2 victory over Samantha Stosur in Toronto, ensuring she would be seeded for the US Open. That seed, as was revealed on Thursday, is No. 28. It doesn’t change the fact, however, that Serena is favored to win at Flushing Meadows. After just four tournaments back on tour, physically and mentally revitalized by her enforced break, Serena’s win over Stosur allowed her to reclaim her unofficial “best player in women’s tennis” title. The match against Stosur could’ve been billed as a serving duel between the two best servers in the women’s game. While both women produced a lackluster service display by their own high standards—serving at 54 and 56 percent, respectively—Serena did produce nine aces. The match was decided predominantly by first-strike accuracy, and despite a slow start, Serena was never about to lose that battle. And it’s hard to predict that she’ll lose any others over the next 15 days.
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Roger Federer There was a lot at stake for Roger Federer when he met Juan Martin del Potro in the second round of the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati on August 16. A Federer loss and the defending champion not only would have earned next to nothing in the rankings, he would have had just one match victory—over Canadian wild card Vasek Pospisil the previous week in Montreal—heading into the US Open. It turned out to be a clean performance by Federer—35 winners and 25 unforced errors, 11 of 13 points won at the net and sparkling 75 percent firstserve percentage—in what was a 6-3, 7-5 win. It’s difficult to say whether he was better or worse than in Montreal, when he lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but he’ll certainly need to play better at Flushing Meadows if he’s to make it eight straight years with at least one Grand Slam title. And he’ll certainly need to play much better than he did three nights later in a 6-2, 7-6 (3) loss to Tomas Berdych.
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Maria Sharapova Maria Sharapova arrives at Flushing Meadows looking sharp, with her spring momentum intact, but with her biggest question, her serve, unanswered and likely never to be answered. On Sharapova’s half of her quarter are youngsters Heather Watson and Melanie Oudin, who knocked her off here two years ago, China’s Shuai Peng, a veteran whose career year has earned her the 13th seed, and the woman occasionally known in England as Julia Gorgeous—make that Goerges—who has been struggling of late. Waiting for Sharapova in the quarterfinals may very well be Petra Kvitova, by whom Sharapova was smoked in the Wimbledon final. Kvitova has had a perhaps predictable let down in North America, but she does get up for the big events. She announced herself by beating Dinara Safina at the Open a few years ago, and she looked very strong through the first weeks in both Melbourne and Paris this season, before putting in two strong weeks at Wimbledon. It’s a rematch Sharapova probably hopes she can avoid.
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Andy Murray Andy Murray had talked before his final match in Cincinnati last Sunday about the need to keep points shorter than usual in the humid conditions, but seeing Novak Djokovic half a step slow at the other end of the court, he modified that tactic. Instead of flattening out his forehand and going for winners, Murray loaded it with topspin and repeatedly went down the line, aiming to draw errors from a fatigued Djokovic. It worked; at 30-40, the pair engaged in a marathon rally which should have been Djokovic’s, as he hit an approach shot which got Murray off-balance. But instead of his usual impeccable finishing, Djokovic then hit the volley straight back to Murray instead of the open court. Murray made the next shot difficult and set himself up for a winner. It’s the kind of tactical misstep at a crucial point that Djokovic seemingly forgot how to make over the last eight months, and it put Murray ahead for the rest of the match. We’ll soon find out whether the win gave him the confidence to make a run at the US Open title.
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Caroline Wozniazki Can a top seed be a dark horse as well? In Caroline Wozniacki’s case, the answer is yes—she’s certainly not one of the favorites. Her season is in free fall, and she demoted her coach last week to mere overbearing-father status. But if the recent examples of Andy Murray and Agnieszka Radwanska are evidence of anything, this could be a blessing in disguise. Each of those players won a tournament after splitting with a coach (in Radwanska’s case, her own overbearing father), and played more freely and easily doing it. Wozniacki’s draw doesn’t hurt. The second seed in her quarter is Li Na, and you never know what’s coming next for her. The French Open champ has never been a smash on Broadway, and she hasn’t been lighting up the courts in the U.S. this summer. Svetlana Kuznetsova is the most dangerous player—to her opponents, as well as herself—in the section, but after the season she’s had, it’s hard to see her putting together an extended run. Perhaps this will be the 2011 major at which Wozniacki will start living up to her No. 1 billing.
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Mardy Fish As Mardy Fish has climbed toward his career apex over the last few weeks, his most impressive performance was a 6-3, 6-4 win over Rafael Nadal in the Cincinnati quarterfinals. Fish came in as the man on the rise; Nadal came in as a man surrounded by intimations of decline. The result ratified suspicions about each of them, and gave Fish the kind of signature top-level win that has been the only thing missing from his résumé over the last year and a half. The most telling moment for Fish came when Nadal missed a forehand to hand Fish the break at 2-2 in the second set: When the ball landed wide, Fish let out a loud “Come on!” In the past, many have wondered how much Fish was willing to put himself on the line emotionally against the best guys. Even at Wimbledon against Nadal, he seemed tentative about playing his game, tentative about believing in himself, and he admitted afterward that Nadal’s presence had caused him to get out of his normal serving rhythm and go for too much. This time Fish wasn’t tentative, and he didn’t overhit; and there was no disbelief in that “Come on!”
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Victoria Azarenka The big question on the women’s side coming into the 2011 US Open, of course, was where Serena Williams (the best female player on the planet but a lowly No. 28 seed) would wind up. Those who habitually rue the way Roger Federer ends up on the same half of the draw as Novak Djokovic (the two are slotted for a semifinal meeting for the 14th time in the last 16 majors) will feel a pang of sympathy for Victoria Azarenka, the No. 4 seed who is destined on form to go up against Serena in the tournament’s third round. It’s not that Azarenka has always come opposite Williams, although the two did meet recently in Toronto (Serena won in straights) and on five other occasions (Serena leads the head-to-head, 5-1). It’s just that in two of the three previous majors, Azarenka has lost to the eventual champ (Li Na at the French Open and Petra Kvitova at Wimbledon). Azarenka also lost to Li in the round of 16 at the Australian Open. And let’s face it, the No. 28 seed is the odds-on favorite to win this final major of 2011.
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Rafael Nadal Rafael Nadal’s loss in the Cincinnati quarterfinals to Mardy Fish was, in many ways, similar to his loss to Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon final. Nadal allowed his opponent to dictate the points through the first set, and he didn’t do much to change that dynamic as the second set started—in the past, Rafa had always been good at not letting one bad set turn into two. And, as in the Wimbledon final, when Nadal finally did get revved up, at 3-4 in the second against Fish, it was his forehand that let him down. Nadal lost in the Cincy quarters last year, to Marcos Baghdatis, and went on to win the US Open. But a title defense in New York is looking unlikely. His shots lacked pop and conviction in his loss to Fish, and he seemed to be running in mud at times. He was also fooled on many occasions by the Fish serve. And at the moment when you would have expected Rafa to mount a furious comeback, his biggest weapon wasn’t there for him. Now there’s one more guy he’s going to have to deal with at the majors.
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TV Schedule
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DATE
ROUND
TIME (EST)
NETWORK
Monday, Aug. 29
Opening round Opening round
11 a.m. - 7 p.m. 1 p.m. - 7 p.m.
Tennis Channel ESPN2
Tuesday, Aug. 30
Opening round Opening round
11 a.m. - 7 p.m. 1 p.m. - 7 p.m.
Tennis Channel ESPN2
Wednesday, Aug. 31
Early-round play Early-round play
11 a.m. - 7 p.m. 1 p.m. - 7 p.m.
Tennis Channel ESPN2
Thursday, Sept. 1
Early-round play Early-round play
11 a.m. - 7 p.m. 1 p.m. - 7 p.m.
Tennis Channel ESPN2
Friday, Sept. 2
Early-round play Early-round play
11 a.m. - 7 p.m. 1 p.m. - 7 p.m.
Tennis Channel ESPN2
Saturday, Sept. 3
Early-round play Early-round play
11 a.m. - 6 p.m. 7 p.m. - 11 p.m.
CBS Tennis Channel
Sunday, Sept. 4
Early-round play Early-round play
11 a.m. - 6 p.m. 7 p.m. - 11 p.m.
CBS Tennis Channel
Monday, Sept. 5
Early-round play
11 a.m. - 6 p.m.
CBS
Tuesday, Sept. 6
Women’s quarterfinals 11 a.m. - 7 p.m. Men’s fourth round 11 a.m. - 7 p.m. Men’s fourth round 11 a.m. - 7 p.m.
ESPN2 ESPN2 Tennis Channel
Wednesday, Sept. 7
Quarterfinals Doubles/Wheelchair
11 a.m. - 7 p.m. 11 a.m. - 7 p.m.
ESPN2 Tennis Channel
Thursday, Sept. 8
Quarterfinals Doubles/Wheelchair
11 a.m. - 7 p.m. 11 a.m. - 7 p.m.
ESPN2 Tennis Channel
Friday, Sept. 9
Women’s Semifinals
12:30 p.m. - 6 p.m.
CBS
Saturday, Sept. 10
Men’s Semifinals Women’s Final
noon. - 6 p.m. 8 p.m. - 10 p.m.
CBS CBS
Sunday, Sept. 11
Men’s Final
4 p.m. - 7 p.m.
CBS
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