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In 1945 the streets of New York City were filled with cars, people, balloons and confetti. Everyone celebrating the end of World War II - and we won! After the war was over, twelve million soldiers came home from the war. And guess what! There were twelve million women and men waiting there for them and the party began. Nine months later, more than four million babies were born. Most people would have thought, once the party was over, the baby boom would be over. But 1947 saw no different when more than four millions babies were born and the trend continued until 1965 when just three and a half million babies were born. That signaled the end of the baby boom era and began the baby boom generation. Seventy eight million baby boomers created a lump in what would have been a gradual change in the rate of babies born in the United States and the lump moved through the years having their own babies. But what brought this phenomenon about? Well there were a number of things. One of them is the twelve million men and women coming home from the war and the willing partners waiting for them. That could explain the first year baby boom, 1946 but not the rest. Another thing is the war devastated the world's economies. The industry of every major country except United States was destroyed. And only the US had industrial capacity to rebuild the world's industry. We had the people and the resources. Another reason was the women that had run the factories and the farms while the men were away, didn't want to give that up. They enjoyed making their own money, buying their own things: clothes, makeup, cars, etc. There was one other major factor and that was those coming home from the war were given the opportunity for free education through the GI Bill, and many of them took advantage of the offer. The combination of these four factors and a number of others created an environment where the US economy flourished - if not boomed. The fact that the economy was booming, gave rise to larger families, people with cars, houses, a good job and a family. They felt they could support a larger family and they did. Why the boom ended in 1964 is any one's guess but the baby boom generation was eighteen years strong and
would have an enormous impact on the American and the world's economies. Now, let's project the baby boomers ahead thirty-five years. Why thirty-five years? Well, the age thirty-five is an accepted age when a person has reached his peak productivity, he has a family, a good job, a car and a home - and the chances are that he will remain that way the rest of his or her life. What does all this mean? Where am I going with this? Well take a look at a linear graph of the New York Stock Exchange, The Dow Jones Industrial Average. Upon inspection, what you see is basically a flat graph up until about the year 1981. And that is the year the 1946 baby boomers turn thirty-five. But it doesn't end there. The trend continues as the baby boomers reach thirty-five years of age and are added to the previous years baby boomers. Thirty-five added to 1964, the last year of the baby boomers, puts the total of all the baby boomers at or near the year 2000, a time when all the baby boomers are thirty-five years old or older. Those seventy eight million baby boomers have good jobs, they are educated and they make a lot of money, and they are placing their money in the stock market. They are investing in their company's 401K's retirement plans, IRA's, CD, etc. What does all this mean? Huh! It might not mean anything...other than there are seventy-eight million people plus their children that might not have been here if the war had not happened. But here is one scenario. If you place the baby boom generation and the generations they have produced under the curve of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1981 to 2000 the curves appear similar. Could the baby boom generation be fueling the stock market phenomenal growth? If that were so then there is a down side and that is the baby boomers are going to start to retire in a couple of years and those born in 1946 will be removed from the work force. The next year, those born in 1947 will retire until all the baby boomers have retire in eighteen years, those born from 1946 to 1964. What then? Will the stock market began to decline, a mirror image of the rise? I will leave that question to the general public and the historian to decide.
Benjamin J Cox is an author, novelist, poet, speaker, writer and humorist. He has written a book, Insider Dreams, a 911 Novel. He was born on a dirt street in a Waldron, Arkansas, in 1943. He graduated from the University of Tulsa with a degree in Electrical Engineering. He is married with three children, five grandchildren. He is the President of Mayes County Writers Club, the Treasurer of Pryor Creek Investment Club and a member of Will Rogers Toastmasters Club. He is retired and lives with his wife in Pryor, Oklahoma. He like to run, enjoys big band dancing, Speaking before groups, and writes every day.
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