Floating solar: The next big thing in clean energy?

The next big thing

in clean energy?

Floating solar is a relatively new concept that is catching on fast in some regions, says EIC Research Analyst Nabil Ahmed

FIVE COUNTRIES TO WATCH

The global market for fl oating solar photovoltaic (FPV) has grown in recent years, fuelled by falling prices, decarbonisation targets and the need to conserve land and water. The outlook is positive, with signifi cant growth projected in the short-to-long term. Some expect it to become a ‘third pillar’ of solar power, after rooftop and ground deployment.

The market, estimated at 1.6GW in 2021, is expected to reach 4.8 GW by 2026, led by Asia Pacifi c, which is forecasted to account for 2.7GW of this. While Japan pioneered the idea at research scale over 10 years ago and has the most projects in operation, China leads the way in installations, with India and South Korea close behind. Off ering fi nancial and technology support, the Asian Development Bank is instrumental in expanding FPV in the region.

EICDataStream is tracking 58 active fl oating solar projects, totalling 19GW of capacity.

By Nabil Ahmed, Research Analyst, EIC

India

14 FPV projects under development +4.2GW capacity

India’s FPV journey began in 2014. Although high costs and design challenges have held back the deployment of the new technology, interest is now growing, evidenced by the recent fl urry of FPV activity in the country. EICDataStream is currently tracking 14 under development fl oating solar projects; if all constructed, this could see a combined capacity of 4.2GW added to the grid.

Projects to note since August 2021 include three projects for the state-run National Thermal Power Corporation – a 25MW FPV plant at Simhadri in Andhra Pradesh, a 92MW FPV plant Kayamkulam in Kerala and a 100MW FPV project at Ramagundam. Tata Power Solar Systems commissioned India’s largest fl oating solar project, at 101.6MW, during 2022, and India’s state-owned National Hydroelectric Power Corporation formed a joint venture with the Green Energy Development Corporation of Odisha for the development of 500MW of fl oating solar projects in the state of Odisha.

India could potentially build 280GW of FPV capacity by utilising around 30% (nearly 1,800 km2) of its medium and large water reservoirs.

To attract more players and boost the subsector, the industry has called for more government support in the form of funding and opportunities to work with technology and science institutions, as well as asking the government to bring fl oating structure manufacture under the production-linked incentive programme

Projects to watch • 1,726 MW Maithon, Tilaya, Konar

Dams FPV Farms • 600MW Omkareshwar Dam FPV

Farm • 500MW Odisha FPV Farm

Greece

3 FPV projects under development +815MW

Three FPV projects are being tracked on EICDataStream, with total capacity of 815MW and a total value of US$747m.

Greek renewables company Terna Energy is realising the country’s fi rst FPV plant – a 103 MW project on Lake Pournariou in the Arta region. It also has plans for FPV plants on Lake Kastrakiou (120MW) and Lake Stratou (42MW). The three projects have a combined value of US$207m.

PPC Renewables is another Greek player interested in FPV. It has received permits for 1.9GW, of which 50MW are fl oating projects; the fi rst is to be built on Lake Polyfytos on the Haliacmon river.

German SINN Power plans to showcase the prototype of an FPV plant and a hybrid system using wind and wave energy in Crete, while another German company, BayWa, is looking at projects for the technology in Greece.

Greece aims to install 5GW of solar by 2030, so more policies and subsidies are needed for it to have an impact. The Greek parliament recently approved a new law that reduces the average time needed to license large-scale renewable energy projects from fi ve years to 14 months. It also makes special provision allowing development of 10 FPV pilots (capacity 0.5-1MW) under a fast-track licensing process that excludes fl oating projects from participating in competitive tenders.

Projects to watch • 265MW FPV Artifi cial Reservoirs

Complex (Kastraki Dam, Pournari

Dam, Army Reservoir) • 500MW FPV Complex Polyfytos

Artifi cial Reservoir • 50MW FPV Greece Complex

(Below) Aerial view of fl oating solar farm in the dam in Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand

Indonesia

14 FPV projects under development +7.5GW

With land scarce on the archipelago, it comes as no surprise that Indonesia is a signifi cant emerging market for FPV. It is set to form a large part of the country’s wider, technology-agnostic push into renewables, as the world’s largest coal exporter seeks to expand its generation fl eet to meet the growing electricity needs for its large population.

Currently EICDataStream is tracking 14 fl oating solar projects across Indonesia, with a total capacity of 7.5GW. State-owned utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara began construction on a 145 MW fl oating solar facility in August 2021, which is set to be the one of the largest fl oating solar farms in the world when it commences operation in Q4 of 2022. Its innovative design will provide power in association with an existing hydropower facility in West Java.

Indonesia plans to develop a further 60 FPV installations to contribute to its target of 23% of power generation from renewables by 2025.

Projects to watch • 145MW Cirata Reservoir FPV

Plant • 2.2GW Batam FPV Project • 3.5GW Riau FPV Project

Portugal

4 FPV projects under development +183MW

Portugal is pushing FPV to advance the energy transition. Its fi rst FPV auction, in April 2022, proved to be a success, with Portugal breaking a new record by setting the lowest energy price in the world for the technology (US$4.4/MWh).

The government awarded the rights to develop 183MW, of which around 103MW is backed by Contracts for Diff erence. EDP Renováveis (EDPR), a subsidiary of Portugal’s main utility EDP, secured lots for a combined 70MW at the southern Alqueva dam, while the country’s second-largest renewable energy producer, Finerge, won three lots with a combined 38MW of capacity. French renewable developer Voltalia won 33MW of capacity development rights and Spanish utility Endesa won the right to develop 42MW of FPV capacity on the Alto do Rabagão reservoir by 2026, where it plans to invest US$117m. EDPR also won an additional 14MW of solar over-capacity and 70MW of hybrid wind capacity.

Following the auction, EDP’s 5MW FPV plant in Alqueva was inaugurated in July 2022.

Projects to watch • 33MW Cabril FPV Plant • 100MW Alqueva Dam FPV Plant

Vietnam

1 FPV project under development +500MW

As Vietnam looks to diversify its energy mix and increase its volume of non-hydro renewable energy projects, the potential for FPV in Vietnam is quite promising, and the market is expected to grow rapidly within the next decade.

EICDataStream is tracking the development of a 500MW fl oating solar project in Dong Hai Province, which will be operated by Blueleaf Energy. Many more projects are expected as ADB’s ‘quick look’ satellite imagery surveys of Vietnam’s hydropower reservoirs have found that they could easily support several gigawatts of fl oating solar.

The country is well placed for growth due to its local supply chain. The latest draft version of its eighth power development plan, drawn up in March 2021, contains a target for 8.7GW of new solar additions, including FPV, between 2021 and 2030.

Projects to watch • 500MW Dong Nai FPV Project

The way forward

One of the challenges faced by the global fl oating solar sector is lack of technical knowledge: there are only a handful of developers in fl oating solar. The higher project cost is another challenge; as with any new technology, it will take time for it to become as economical as ground solar. Given this, fi nancial incentives and government support are still crucial in most markets.

The supply chain needs to be extended to account for the new designs and technologies needed. For UK companies with expertise and a comprehensive understanding of the off shore renewables industry, the market off ers signifi cant opportunities.