Fairfax County needs a lockdown

LOCK DOWN FAIRFAX COUNTY

Managing spread of COVID-19 requires more serious measures

OMAR KAYALI REPORTER

COVID-19 has ravaged America for close to a year, and most people are eagerly awaiting the end of the pandemic. Sharing this sentiment, Fairfax County has implemented serious changes to try and stop the spread of the virus, such as schools going online and mandating masks in public places.

Still, more drastic measures should be taken to help end the pandemic. A full lockdown of Fairfax County would be one of the most efficient ways to help mitigate COVID-19’s spread in the area.

A lockdown would mean that all nonessential shops and services must close, and schools and workplaces would operate remotely. Cafes, restaurants and grocery stores would be limited to delivery and pickup, masks would be mandatory in any public place and travel would be shut down.

“The virus that causes COVID-19 appears to spread more efficiently than influenza,” the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said on their website.

Since COVID-19 spreads via close contact and air transmission in closed areas, non-essential services become a petri dish for the virus.

Currently, precautions are in place to help reduce the virus’s spread, but these are not enough to successfully bring the end of the pandemic.

According to the CDC, “Wearing masks and social distancing help reduce your chance of being exposed to the virus or spreading it to others, but these measures are not enough.”

The best course of action for preventing further spread of the pandemic would be to enforce a lockdown, which would greatly reduce the spread of the virus until a vaccine is more available to the general public.

The lockdown would be efficient regardless of the amount of time vaccine production would take. Any amount of time in lockdown would provide a period in which the spread is mitigated, which would allow more research to be done into vaccines. Additional research into the virus and its variants will make existing vaccines all the more efficient.

Long lockdowns have already been successfully enforced in other countries. In Melbourne, Australia, a lockdown of 112 days was enforced, the capital being the epicenter of Australia’s cases. The lockdown began July 7 and ended Oct. 27, spanning almost four full months. Since then, new cases in the country have remained in the single and double digits, never breaking 50 new cases in a day. Even though its results may not be immediate, a lockdown is very effective.

As for economic concerns, the economy will take a hit whether or not Fairfax County institutes a lockdown.

“Regardless of lockdown or no lockdown, certain firms like restaurants, the concert industry and more are going to be receiving less revenue because their business models rely on large crowds in close proximity to each other,” AP Economics teacher Joseph Dwyer said. “Also, consumer confidence may be lower as people potentially worry about losing their jobs, so they might be more likely to save their money for emergency situations instead of spending it, thus having a negative impact on the macroeconomy.”

Due to the variability of the pandemic, economic conditions are unpredictable and unstable. The best way to bring stability back to the economy would be to take steps to end the pandemic, which a lockdown would certainly do.

“There are so many variables with infection rates and potential mutations of the virus that we just cannot predict,” Dwyer said.

While a vaccine is currently available to certain groups of essential workers, this is not enough to justify keeping non-essential services open. As of Feb. 12, six cases of the U.K. variant and two cases of the South African variant have been identified in Virginia. These variants are more infectious than the current strain of coronavirus, and it is still unknown how effective the vaccine will be against the new strains.

In response to the more contagious variants, Germany announced on Feb. 10 that they will be extending the country’s lockdown for the next month, and Fairfax County should follow their lead.

COVID-19 numbers are still on the rise, with a record-setting spike in Fairfax County of 1,485 new cases on Jan. 17. As of Feb. 13, Fairfax County has had more than 63,000 confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19, the most of any county in Virginia. The best way to tackle these rising numbers would be a lockdown.

SERIOUS SPIKING — This graph shows the number of new COVID-19 cases in Fairfax County over the course of January 2021. The largest spike was on Jan. 17, with 1,485 new cases. A lockdown will help get

these numbers under control. (Data obtained via Virginia Health Department)