Why the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict isn't Just About Them

by Yaj Jhajhria

Edited by Kavya Gurunath, Harvi Karatha, & Shivanshi Sharma, Layout by Aathmika Radhachandran

Amongst most of our readers, the nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan are not likely to have received a lot of attention. Chances are that some of you might not have known one or both of them even existed. Even more so goes for Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous piece of terrain in the South Caucasus roughly the size and shape of Delaware. Yet, after all of this year’s tension and conflict, the first armed conflict to begin in 2020 is not over natural resources, not in the Middle East or Europe, and not involving any great powers: instead, it is between these two Caucasian nations over this small area of land.

On September 27, Armenia alleged that Azerbaijan’s military bombed civilian settlements in Nagorno- Karabakh and claimed to have retaliated by shooting down Azerbaijani aircraft. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan asserts that they launched a “counteroffensive to suppress Armenia’s combat activity and ensure the safety of the population”. [1] There have been many casualties and fatalities on both sides, including soldiers and civilians. Leaders from both nations have only increased tensions with their nationalistic promises to win at any cost.Yet, to understand the cause of this violence and why these countries even care about the land in the first place, we must rewind to the establishment of these countries. While this may seem like an ethnic conflict between two small nations on paper, reality indicates that there may be larger powers at play here.

How a Valley Became a Hot Spot

This conflict stems from the difference between the predominantly Christian Armenian ethnic group and the mostly Muslim Azerbaijanis in the region.

In the 1920s, when all of the land in the region was part of the Soviet Union and governed by Stalin from faraway Moscow, he made a mistake. [2] Most of the land in the South Caucasus was split according to ethnic populations, but Nagorno- Karabakh, with an Armenian population, was inexplicably marked as Azerbaijani territory. However, this never proved to be an issue due to the total Soviet control over the area. It was only in 1988, during the breakup of the USSR, that tensions arose when the people of Nagorno-Karabakh passed a legislature outlining its wish to leave Azerbaijan and become part of Armenia. After this wish was ignored, they declared independence a few years later, triggering a full-scale war between the two now-sovereign states trying to take control of their land. [3]

This turned out to be extremely destructive, killing thirty thousand over the course of six years and causing a massive refugee crisis, but it resulted in an Armenian military victory. It also resulted in the creation of the mostly unrecognized Republic of Artsakh that still maintains de facto control over Nagorno-Karabakh and some surrounding areas as essentially a puppet state of Armenia. [4]

While Russia (an ever-present force in the region even after the USSR’s collapse) mediated a ceasefire agreement with both nations to end the war, skirmishes have continued over the land. Armenia sees it as the land of its people being occupied by a hostile force; while Azerbaijan sees Armenia’s desire to occupy the land as a threat to their national security, and the region’s relative autonomy and Armenian control as a threat to their sovereignty.

Since the war, diplomatic efforts from the United States, France, and Russia have kept the situation from intensifying, but also have failed to de-escalate the existing tensions between the nations. The populations of both are extremely passionate about this issue, so much so that in 1997, when Armenia’s then-president intended to partially retreat troops from the land surrounding Nagorno- Karabakh, his own government overthrew him. With the exception of a four-day skirmish in 2016 that killed 350 people, however, things have mostly remained calm in the region. [5] That is, until last month.

How this Valley Became a War Zone

Though the incident made headlines in late September, this year's fighting begins in July and featured Armenia's killing of seven Azerbaijani soldiers, including one well-known military general [6].

Perhaps most interestingly, however, is how Turkey followed this up by conducting two weeks of military training with Azerbaijan, seemingly as a display of power and solidarity with Azerbaijan. This was confirmed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a statement earlier this month, after the conflict flared up and received international attention. [7] The facts show that Turkey is going all-in for supporting Azerbaijan during this time. They have been using Turkish drones in airstrikes and allegedly are providing Syrian fighters to fight on the Azerbaijani side of the war, recruited as “contractors”.

The justification for Turkey’s seemingly unreasonable decision to support Azerbaijan in a conflict like this could be because of closer ethnic ties with the Azerbaijanis or the beneficial weapons-gas trade between the two countries, but the ulterior motive here is likely neither.Erdoğan is a far-right nationalist, and he has expressed a great desire to make Turkey claim its rightful spot as one of the greatest powers in the world. In order for this to happen, it would need to expand its sphere of influence.

The South Caucuses have generally been considered Russia’s backyard since the breakup of the Soviet Union, but Turkey is currently taking advantage of Russia’s decision to act as a neutral third party.

Erdoğan knows that involvement leads to influence at the negotiating tables later on, and he sees this as an opportunity to have greater leverage in a valuable area of the world.

Yet as Turkey makes these calculated moves, it in no way gives a second thought to the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. By promoting a military rather than a diplomatic solution, Erdoğan puts many more civilians in the line of gunfire, tearing families apart and creating a greater refugee problem for Eurasia.

Even though another Russianmediated ceasefire came into effect on October 10, all involved parties have essentially ignored it, and every day it looks more and more like this may definitively become a war. Already thousands of people have died in just three weeks, and nobody knows what the results of a multi-year conflict might be. But right now, what each side fails to see while blinded by their rage, arrogance, and greed is there is no benefit to be gained from fueling the fire, especially right now. Because if this is to end as it did 26 years ago, then I fear to see what is to come 26 years from now.