No Golden Visa, No Problem

It’s the end of a golden era in Europe.

Spain, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus in the past two years have all scrapped or added major restrictions to their “golden visa” proposals, which grant residency rights to foreigners making real estate purchases over a certain amount in those countries.

But even as the residency programs wind down, agents in some of the most sought-after markets expect little change in home prices.

“The impact on the market is highly overrated,” says Ayres Neto, Managing Partner of The Agency Portugal.

That’s counter to what politicians in the European Union are saying—that the withdrawal from the program would reduce upward pressure on housing prices from foreign nationals and free up more units for locals.

“Housing is a constitutional right and not a mere speculative business,” said Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in announcing the country’s decision to end the program in April.

“The government is trying to say, ‘Look, we know there are issues regarding the supply of housing and high prices in general, and we don’t think we should be making it easier for wealthy foreigners to acquire properties,’” says Josep Turro, Managing Director of The Agency in Barcelona. “It’s more a message than anything.”

The programs started up in the wake of the eurozone’s debt crisis in 2012, as countries sought a way to stimulate their economies and in particular their stagnating housing markets. The programs typically set an investment floor of around €500,000— and sometimes less for regions with less foreign real estate demand.

Since Spain launched the program in 2013, it has issued 14,576 visas to real estate investors making cash purchases of more than €500,000. Chinese investors topped the list of those awarded the visa, by nationality, followed by Russians.

Portugal has issued 12,718 visas between 2013 and 2023, generating around €6.5 billion in real estate investment. As in Spain, the Chinese are the largest nationality represented in the program, with

5,407 of the total visas going to them, according to statistics from Portugal’s Foreigners and Borders Service. Brazilians and Americans make up the next largest share, with 1,256 and 781 visas awarded, respectively.

But the number of homes transacting through the program made up less than 1% of the overall market in both countries.

“It is very much a drop in the ocean,” Turro says.

Agents don’t expect prices across most markets to change as a result of these programs winding down.

In Portugal, the golden visa program will still exist, but in a different form—though real estate investment will no longer be applicable, investors will have other options, such as a venture capital fund investment or science and research contribution of €500,000 or more, or incorporating a company creating at least 10 jobs.

Other options also exist for foreigners looking to get residency in Portugal. The D7 visa, known as the “passive income” visa, allows non-EU citizens with a minimum yearly income of €8,640 per year to legally reside in Portugal. Visa holders must spend at least six months out of the year residing in Portugal.

“If you live in Portugal for six months or more of the year and have passive income from pretty much any country on the planet, you can still have pretty much the same benefits that the golden visa gives,” Neto says. “The only condition is that you need to live here half of the year, whereas the golden visa was seven days.”

Other Countries Rush In With Their Own Golden Visas

While Spain and Portugal might be ending their real estate investment program, it hasn’t meant the death of such programs in Europe entirely.

As of August 2024, Greece’s program requires a higher minimum investment of €800,000 in its most popular regions, like Attica (which includes Athens), Thessaloniki, Mykonos and Santorini.

Meanwhile, other areas in Greece have a more attainable entry level — €400,000. That’s a 60% increase from the previous minimum of €250,000.

Hungary, meanwhile, is relaunching its real estate investment program as of January 2025, providing a 10-year residency permit for the purchase of a residential property with a minimum price of €500,000. Prices there are among some of the lowest in the European Union.