change

for Harrisonburg, Shenandoah Valley

By GRETCHEN NAGLE contributing writer

Abnormally high temperatures have been recorded so far for the 2023 winter season in Virginia and across the East Coast — especially in February when temperatures were at an all time high so far for the season, according to The Washington Post.

Though the JMU community has been out on the Quad enjoying the warm weather, the real causes and effects may actually be altering for the future of Harrisonburg and the Shenandoah Valley’s climate, according to the Community Climate Outlook.

Harrisonburg reached unusual highs in the 80-degree range on Feb. 23. These increased warm temperatures are more typical for late spring and early summer rather than late February for the area, according to National Weather Service temperature trends.

Bill Lukens, paleoclimatology specialist and JMU professor in the department of geology and environmental science, told The Breeze that this isn’t the first year Harrisonburg and the East Coast have had an abnormally warmer winter, and certainly not the last.

“What is abnormal,” Lukens said, “is that these unusually warm years keep on happening more recently and recurring. The last few years have all been unusually warm, which is a fingerprint of climate change.”

Lukens said Harrisonburg and the Shenandoah Valley are already seeing evidence of the future effects that climate change will have on the area. While this winter’s pattern aligns with La Niña — meaning winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North — Lukens said this is uncharted territory, seeing that La Niña typically only lasts 1-2 years. But Lukens said that this year is the third time in recorded history that there’s a third La Niña year in a row. Climatologists don’t know the cause for this phenomenon but are pointing to signs that climate change could be a contributing factor, Lukens said.

“When people think of climate change,” Lukens said, “they tend to think, ‘Oh it’s getting hotter,’ but we are actually expected to experience extreme rain events — generally in this part of Virginia [and] in the Appalachian region — which is a threat to the Shenandoah Valley, causing big implications on infrastructure, roads, bridges [and] drainage.”

While these effects won’t be experienced locally for a while, Lukens said, they’re still something to keep in the back of our minds to protect the future community.

“We know that it’s greenhouse gasses [and] fossil fuel emissions primarily that are causing climate change,” Lukens said. “Right now, the biggest emission of CO2 is transportation, driving big trucks and cars, and that’s one thing that JMU students don’t do a lot of in town. We’ve got great buses, a walkable campus [and] a lot of JMU students are doing what they need to do to not be a part of the problem.” see CLIMATE CHANGE, page 6