Eating-out market growing

With restrictions ending in July, focus turned to market recovery, says Bonnie Whist, Head of Insight, Lumina Intelligence

There’s no denying that the pandemic has had a pretty catastrophic effect on eating-out operators, with the UK eating-out market declining by -47.8% to £47.7 billion in 2020, not helped by there only being 11.3 weeks of normal trading last year.

GOOD NEWS

The good news is the market is expected to grow +33.4% in 2021 to £63.6bn, and to make a full recovery and exceed its pre-pandemic value by the end of 2022. It’s set to be worth £91.9bn by that time. The growth would have increased further had it not been for closures at the start of this year for mainly dine-in outlets.

The outlook is most positive for the retail, travel and leisure sub-segment of the total market as it’s expected to have the quickest turnover recovery. In addition, on-the-go and low-ticket channels are considered to be well-placed for takeaway and recessionary trading.

Did you know?

THE TOP THREE ACTIVITIES PEOPLE HAVE MISSED DOING ARE: 69% MEETING OTHERS; 67% EATING OUT AT A RESTAURANT; 66% HOLIDAYS

SALES BOOM

For those working in hotels, pubs and restaurants – the largest sub-segment of the total eating-out market by value and by outlets – recovery to two thirds of its 2019 value is expected this year (+32.1% to £44.8bn). However, prolonged restrictions on indoor dining and travel will limit further recovery. That said, those venues in popular tourist areas around the UK are likely to see sales boom as people opt for a staycation this summer.

Blonnie Whist, Insight Director at Lumina Intelligence, says: “With all restrictions on the hospitality sector ending in July, attention now turns to market recovery.

“In the interim, we will see slight polarisation between channels, with on-the-go and relatively low-ticket solutions well placed to continue to capitalise on demand for takeaway, as well as combat any recessionary trading.

“Hotels, pubs and restaurants are set for a slower recovery, as prolonged restrictions on indoor dining and limited travel hamper 2021 trading.

“However, between 2022 and 2024 there is a £3.1bn growth prize for operators to target.”

Source: Lumina Intelligence UK Eating Out Market Report 2021