Hydrogen Outlook Continues: The Rise of the Hydrogen ICE

In the first part of this series on hydrogen we explored some of the key trends surrounding the topic. In this second part, we will consider the outlook for H2-ICE (hydrogen internal combustion engine) based on the latest announcements from major OEMs in the commercial vehicle and non-road segments. We will also discuss what this might mean for technology and provide a market outlook.

Engine Developments

At Bauma in November of last year, we witnessed the unveiling of several hydrogen engines, including Liebherr’s H964 XL four-cylinder and H966 six-cylinder engines. In March’s Conexpo in Las Vegas, the number of engines on display was even greater and included those from suppliers who were absent at Bauma.

The engine-dominant hall at ConExpo featured JCB’s 4.8-litre AB H2 engine and Cummins Fuel Agnostic X15H 15-litre engine (unfortunately not named the Chimera engine), which boasts three heads for diesel, natural gas, and hydrogen variants. The other two engine OEMs not present at Bauma, Deutz and the newly renamed HD Hyundai Engine (formerly Doosan), displayed their 7.8-litre and 11-litre hydrogen engines respectively. Kubota's 3.8-litre engine was also showcased, with the company announcing that it would not be limited to PowerGen applications as previously stated at Bauma.

Both Cummins and JCB are heavily investing in these new engines, as well as test and development facilities in the UK. Therefore, it will be crucial for hydrogen burnt in ICEs to be considered a Net Zero fuel in future UK legislation for both non-road and commercial vehicle applications. With the European Commission now including H2-ICE in its new heavy-duty CO2 proposals, the technology is expected to play a key role in reducing carbon emissions in heavier applications. The US EPA also announced that H2-ICE, with "neat" hydrogen (not including diesel pre-injection), will be counted as zero emissions. Recent work being completed by the Advanced Propulsion Centre and Cenex for DESNZ will likely recommend H2-ICE as a major pathway for low carbon for NRMM (non-road mobile machinery).

JCB Engine Cummins X15 Fuel Agnostic

The debate between early IDI (in-direct injection) and DI (direct injection) fuel systems for these engines will play out by segment. Early engine models are expected to use IDI port fuel injection, for which the technology and manufacturing readiness is higher. These engines may have lower specific power and lower overall efficiency but will cost less. For these smaller engines, the lower demands may offer an acceptable trade off between performance and cost. For larger engines, the adoption of DI may come a couple of years later. With larger engines having higher durability requirements, the longer lead time will allow for more demanding development and testing.

Development continues to accelerate, driven in part by commercial vehicle applications. Recent symposiums in Vienna and Gothenburg have featured presentations on the future of hydrogen, particularly in relation to aftertreatment for on-road legislation, following the announcement of Euro 7 earlier this year. Under European legislation, hydrogen engines will likely be considered net-zero if they produce less than 5g CO2 per t/km at a vehicle level, with the residual largely comprised of burnt lubrication oil. However, in California, the most stringent emissions region for NRMM by 2030, the ban on heavy-duty trucks will not allow for hydrogen internal combustion engines (ICE). It remains to be seen whether this ban will be adopted for California’s non-road zero-emission rules that are currently under development.

While fuel cells are widely adopted across the commercial vehicle segment, their adoption is likely to be more limited in NRMM. Many OEMs have stated that the H2-ICE is a more durable approach for the demanding NRMM duty cycles. However, fuel cells could still be interesting for smaller applications, such as materials handling and small construction applications. For larger applications, the fuel cell is being tested in port handling, articulated and rigid dump trucks for mining and quarrying.

Due to the pace of investment and legislators' zeroemission approach, it is expected that all major OEMs across the commercial and NRMM segments will have at least one hydrogen engine in their portfolio and available for sale commercially between 2025 and 2028. The first low volume products are expected to come to market in 2024. By 2030, multiple models will be available across OEMs and segments.

In KGP’s latest xEV forecasts for the CV and non-road segment, over 70,000 new vehicles and machines could use H2-ICE, increasing to over 1 million by 2050. However, because these will be higher fuel-use applications, greater than 10% of new machine demand could be H2-ICE based. In all scenarios, a shortfall will still need to be met by using low carbon diesel, such as HVO in the short term and potentially E-Diesel/ Fischer-Tropsch-Diesel (FTD) in the longer term.

The major challenge for hydrogen remains the availability of green hydrogen, which will be necessary for net-zero emissions. However, the infrastructure and supply are still under development, and initially, less carbon-intensive forms of hydrogen may supplement green hydrogen. The cost of hydrogen is also an issue, as TCO models suggest that less than £4/kg will be needed to make it cost-competitive, and this largely depends on renewable energy and curtailed electricity to produce green hydrogen. The ongoing analysis at KGP will assess the fuel mix for both new machines and the existing population (aka parc) of machines in use.

Future challenges will include meeting the demand for hydrogen and finding solutions to get it to the site. Part three of this series in July will consider the hydrogen demand outlook and the solutions being considered to get it to the site.