The Explorer Islamabad: Journal of Social Sciences ISSN: 2411-0132(E), 2411-5487(P) Vol-2, Issue (1): 27-33 www.theexplorerpak.org
POPULATION GROWTH AND INCREASE IN DOMESTIC ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN PAKISTAN: A CASE STUDY OF BAHAWALPUR CITY Lubna Hameed, Dr. Asad Ali Khan Department of Earth Sciences, The Govt Sadiq College Women University Bahawalpur, Department of Geography, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur Corresponding Author; Lubna Hameed The Govt Sadiq College Women University Bahawalpur lubnahameed74@gmail.com Abstract; The massive use of the electrical energy in the world is for domestic purposes and Bahawalpur region of Pakistan is not an exception. Population growth and rising standard of living have boosted the rate of domestic electricity consumption to higher levels. This piece of research work examines the impact of population growth on electricity consumption focusing on to Bahawalpur City of the Punjab province of Pakistan. It is based on primary as well as secondary data. For the collection of primary data entire Bahawalpur city was divided in to five zones and secondary data was gathered from various concerning departments. For the analysis purpose, regression model has been used. The values showed significant positive relationship between population growth and massive increase in electronic appliances that have caused drastic change in domestic electricity consumption. It is suggested ways of improving electricity conservation through concerns of Government and users. Keywords: Population growth, domestic electricity consumption, Bahawalpur, electronic appliances, electricity conservation, Regression model.
INTRODUCTION It may not be erroneous to state that in this modern era of electronics, among energy resources that serve as the backbone of a country, electricity is at the top of hierarchy. Globally electricity is the major source of power that is produced from natural and physical form of energies. The role of electricity is crucial for development and prosperity of any nation. Technological enrichment is taking place promptly over time increasing the usage of electricity. Electricity has vital importance in various fields of life like domestic, commercial, industrial and agricultural sectors. It needs no explanation to mention that socio-economic progress is highly dependent on it. Electricity infrastructure in Pakistan has passed through several stages since its birth in 1947. Although, the production capacity has increased significantly but not relative to the shooting demand in residential, industrial, commercial and agriculture sectors. Pakistan has total area of 796,095km2. According to world population data sheet 2013, it stands sixth in the world
with a population size of 199.0 million.The growing population will use the increasing number of daily appliances like telecommunication appliances, computers, domestic appliances, transport vehicles, and medical devices. But in less developed countries like Pakistan, production is not coping with the demands. Almost similar trends have been noted in Bahawalpur City. To investigate the trends of growing population, increasing number of electronic appliances, and upward shooting demand for electricity in Bahawalpur, this study is mainly aimed at following objectives; 1. To investigate the impact of population growth on the consumption of electricity in Bahawalpur. 2. To highlight the increasing use of electronic appliances and electricity demand. At present, the share of direct electricity user households in Pakistan is about 42.15 % of the total.
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In Pakistan energy sector is producing electricity chiefly from hydel and thermal power projects controlled by Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) for all of Pakistan except for Karachi where Karachi Electric (K- Electric) previously known as Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC) supplies electricity for the City of Karachi and its neighbouring areas. A large proportion of household energy consumption in Pakistan is used for stationary purposes such as heating, washing, lighting, cooking and other household uses(Dalen and Larsen 2013). The residential sector in Pakistan consists of over 24 million households that account for 20% of the total commercial energy consumption in the country. Electricity is available to about 70% of the households, and accounts for 34% of the total energy consumption in the residential sector. Thus domestic sector is the largest consumer of electricity. With the load shedding of 16 to 18 hours, summers became worst for people. Similarly winters have also not been luxurious as 8 to 10 hours of load shedding is seen. In this research the focused area is Bahawalpur City. The purpose of study is to understand how residential energy consumption affected economic growth in the region. The rapid increase in electricity consumption is one of the most alarming factors in current urban societies. For this purpose regression model is used to know about population growth and increasing electricity consumption in Bahawalpur City. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Population growth is defined as the increase in population over a period. It depends on the balance of births, deaths and migration (Robinson 2007). An economic crisis occurred in Spanish provinces due to high residential electricity consumption(Blázquez, et al. 2013). Similarly Pakistan is facing shortfall of electricity in domestic, commercial and industrial sector. Electricity infrastructure in Pakistan. He discussed different phases of production and demand since independence in 1947 (Ullah 2013). Electricity generation increased radically but demand exceeded in all sectors i.e. in residential, industrial, commercial and agriculture sectors.
A multiple linear regression model and analyzed characteristics of domestic electricity consumption patterns in different households (McLoughlin, et al. 2012). Population growth along with increasing use of household appliances, results in high consumption of electricity at domestic level. The multivariate electricity consumption in Pakistan and population growth for 36 years between 1976-2010.They discussed determinants of electricity consumption as a function of direct foreign investment, income and population growth and showed that all these factors have positive relationship with electricity consumption in Pakistan (Zaman, et al. 2012). Domestic demand of electricity in Pakistan is shooting up. They pointed out that electricity crises is associated with the widening gap between production and ever increasing demand and linked to the increasing number of consumers and per household consumption. the effect of electricity use, feedback on residential consumption with Smart Meters in Milton, Ontario. Due to electricity crisis, the provincial government of Ontario adopts a culture of conservation and is planning to provide all residential dwellings with new metering infrastructure known as “smart meters” (Robinson 2007). MATERIALS AND METHODS The methodological frame work of this research is focused on the population growth and domestic electricity consumption in Bahawalpur City. This paper presents an analysis of residential sector in Bahawalpur City and over all increasing trend in the consumption of electricity. Three types of data are used in this research through questionnaire, secondary data of different offices and field interviews. Entire city was divided into five zones and 400 households were selected for interviews. technique for selection used was method of equal allocation, as it was also used by (Collomb 2004) population growth and land use pattern in Bahawalpur also collected the sample by using equal allocation method. From each of the following zones 80 samples were randomly taken. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS Bahawalpur City is divided into following zones
Tibbah Badar Sher & Shahdra Inside Fareed gate (Inside City area)
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Model Town A, B and Hashmi Garden
Satellite Town Millat, Trust & Officer colony
Map1: Zones of Study Area in Bahawalpur City
Source: Author, 2015 Absolute growth is the difference in numbers between populations over time. Population at the end of the period - population at the beginning of the period Population at the beginning of the period PGR = PGR = Population growth rate Focal area of this research is Bahawalpur City as it shows rapid increase in population growth with current estimates of 795,244. High increase in urban population had been correlated with natural increase and migration from rural to urban areas (Robinson 2007). Bahawalpur City has faced high rate of urbanization.
Table1: Population (x1000's) of Bahawalpur City Population Year of Census (x1000’s) 1951 527 1961 735 1972 1071 1981 1453 1998 2433 2007est 3005 2012est 3337 Source: District Census Report 1998. MEPCO came into existence in the year 2001 after unbundling of WAPDA system. Earlier, it was known as Multan Area Electricity Board (AEB). Its distribution network in the year 2001 comprised of seventy one, 132 kV and thirty four, 66 kV sub-stations and by the year 2012-
Bahawalpur is twelfth biggest city of Pakistan. Rapid increase in population showed that the pull factors of migration are very strong in this area especially education. People of adjoining rural areas come to reside here for better educational facilities. Bahawalpur is peaceful city with healthy environmental condition. Due to this reason city expand day by day and showing high population growth.
Growth rate …. 3.4 3.3 3.67 3.07 2.61 2.20
Inter census Growth Rate 35.8 39.5 45.7 35.7 67.4 33.5 22.09
13, sixty eight, 132 kV and twenty seven, 66 kV Sub sub-stations have started functioning in the area. MEPCO consumers include 87.6% domestic consumers. It is a large proportion and depicts that major electricity consumption occurs at domestic site. 9.72 % is used on
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commercial basis, for agriculture and tube wells 1.58%, 0.01, 0.03 for industry and bulk supply respectively. Historical record of number of consumers within MEPCO Bahawalpur jurisdiction is given below. In 2008, 473176 domestic electricity connections were installed, these domestic users consumed 1294 million units of electricity and 12911 million rupees of revenue was collected by MEPCO. In 2009, number of consumers increased by 7.03% and consumed units growth rate was 2.86. During 2010, there was decline in electricity connections and reached at 4.75% and growth rate of unit
consumed also decreased to -6.83. During this period load shedding crises came in entire country which also affected Bahawalpur. In 2011, there was significant increase in electricity connections, it was observed that 17.71 and growth rate of consumed units was 9.79. Revenue collected this year was 14684 million of 8.92%. In 2012-2014, number of electricity connections increased from 647421 to 714043. This also changed amount of unit consumed from 14421 to 16128, thus increasing load shedding for approximately 1218 hours and price per unit also increases which tends to less use of electricity.
Table 2: Number of Connections of Electricity in Bahawalpur Number of Growth Units Growth Years Connections Rate (%) (Millions) Rate (%) 2008 473176 --1294 --2009 506421 7.03 1311 2.86 2010 530471 4.75 1221.4 -6.83 2011 624421 17.71 1341.01 9.79 2012 647421 3.86 1289.48 -3.84 2013 680800 5.16 1481.08 14.86 2014 714043 4.88 1481.4 0.03 Source: Regional WAPDA Office Bahawalpur
Tariff (Millions) 12911 13984 13481 14684 14421 15418 16128
Growth Rate (%) --8.31 -3.6 8.92 -1.79 6.91 4.61
In this study, target population is socio economically divided into three income groups that are high class, Middle class and low class. This section analyzes effects of the household’s size, income, use of appliances, behaviors on domestic electricity consumption. Electric appliances play an important role in our everyday life. Appliances are categorized in five groups Lighting devices, Lighting devices, domestic use Lighting devices entertainment and informative appliances, Domestic use entertainment and informative appliances, All types of lighting domestic use entertainment and informative appliances. Figure 1: Comparison of Use of Appliances in Study Zones of BWP 40
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35
32
32
Lightening Devices
33
32
28
30
26
Domestic, Lightening Devices
25 20
19
18
20
18
17
15 10 5
10
9
7
7 4
11
8
12
6
5 3
4
Millat, Trust & Officer colony
Tibbah Badar Sher & Shahdra
2
0 Inside Fareed gate Model Town A, B & Hashami Garden
Lightening, Entertainment, informative Devices
Domestic, Lightening and Entertainment, Informative Devices
Satellite Town Lightening, Domestic, Entertainment, Informative, Hot & Cold
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Source: Author, 2015 The sample consist of 80 residents from each of the zone and from the data observed that people living inside Fareed gate use domestic lighting devices, 32% mostly and 28% informative and entertainment appliances. Modal Town A, B and Hashami garden residents use all types of home appliances and mostly use hot & cold devices including entertainment and informative appliances. Millat, Trust and Officers colony residents use all appliances and hot & cold devices, residents of Tibbah Badar Sher use lighting devices mostly, and residents of Satellite town use all types of devices including hot & cold devices household electricity use and he also argued about use of appliances and electricity consumption has positive relationship (Sovandara 2002). Electricity consumption increases in Pakistan and lead to the havoc of energy crises it become first originated in 2005-06 due to extensive use of electronic appliances and use of air conditioner is increasing in middle and high income class. The fiscal year of 2005-06, approximately 2,250 MW electricity is required to run 7.7 million electric appliances in Pakistan. The main cause of electricity crises in Pakistan is due to industrial
growth and massive use of appliances in household sector Due to economic growth, urban areas are facing rapid increase in living standards. Urbanization demands comfortable and high standard life style use of high end electrical appliances compliment the urban living style. Earlier, electric fans, tape recorders and monochrome (black and white) TV sets were icon of luxury but these days sophisticated, modern and high electricity consuming devices are in use. Use of appliances like mobiles, computers, laptops, tablets has increased consumption of electricity at personal level. Electricity use has grown continuously as the income of resident increases. IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON DOMESTIC ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN BAHAWALPUR CITY Measurement of dependence of one variable on another variable is called regression and the process of finding the regression is termed as regression analysis. Value of regression coefficient may be positive or negative according to the relationship of dependent variable with independent variable. The formula used for the regression coefficient is as under,
Let “Y” is the dependent variable depends on “X” then the linear regression line will be Y=a+bX Where “a” is called regression constant and “b” is called regression coefficient.
Where “a” is called regression constant and “b” is called regression coefficient. Linear regression models were used in study by assessing the statistically significant variances associated with electricity consumption.(Laicane, et al. 2014). Table3: Regression Analysis for Electricity Consumption /Electricity Expenses Dependent Std. Error of Regression R R Square T-Score Sig. Variables Estimate Coefficient Electricity 0.353 0.125 Consumption Electricity 0.547 0.299 Expenses Predictors: (Constant) = Monthly Income The influence of income on electricity consumption and amount paid for the electricity
172.06
0.353
7.524
0.000
3903.31
0.547
5.089
0.000
bills. It showed the relationship between the incomes and other variables. Regression analysis
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is used to check the dependence of electricity consumption in units and electricity expenses in rupees on income level of target population. Value of R-Square shows the variation in dependence variables due to income of respondents. Same as the regression coefficients for both variables shows the positive relationship. Significance level (P-value) shows that regression coefficients are significant at 1 % level of significance. Where R is the correlation coefficient and it measures the interdependence between the variables. Electricity consumption / income is positively correlated that if one value is increasing other value also shows the same trend. Electricity expenses / income also show
the positive correlation that if one variable increases / decreases other shows the same trend. St. Error of Estimate is actually the standard deviation which shows the dispersion of electricity consumption for different income levels around the average income. Value of regression coefficient for electricity shows that a change of one unit in income increases the electricity consumption by the rate of 0.353. Value of regression coefficient for electricity also shows that a change of one unit in income in different income groups increases electricity consumption by the rate of 0.547.
Table4: Regression Analysis for Electricity Connections/consumption/ Expenses Dependent Std. Error of Regression R R Square Variables Estimate Coefficient Connections 0.882 0.779 Electricity 0.863 0.745 Consumption Electricity 0.918 0.843 Expenses Predictors: (Constant) = Population The influence of population on number of electricity connections, electricity consumption in units, and amount paid for the electricity bills. RSquare and Regression coefficients are calculated to check the dependence of connections, electricity consumption and electricity expenses on population. Value of R-Square shows the variation in dependent variables due to population and regression coefficients show the positive relationship among the concerned variables. Significance level (P-value) shows that regression coefficients are significant at 1 % level of significance. Value of regression coefficient for electricity shows that a change of one unit in population increases the electricity connections / consumption by the rate of 0.882 / 0.863. Value of regression coefficient of electricity shows that, change of one unit population in different income group’s increases electricity expenses at rate of 0.918. Aforesaid discussion proves that population growth influences consumption of electricity and has direct relation in case of electricity
T-Score
Sig.
47969
0.882
4.19
0.009
55.00
0.863
3.820
0.012
480.36
0.918
5.174
0.004
connection, billing amount and unit consumed every year(Dalen and Larsen 2013) studied residential end-use electricity demand development over time. Their analysis also proved that population growth has significant impact on electricity consumption. In Bahawalpur increasing population and comforting living standard of majority of population highlights direct and positive relation upon consumption of electricity. An energy crisis is in the dangerous limit in Pakistan. For the development of country its very urgent need to overcome this issue (Alahdad 2012). CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS In this study impact of population growth on the domestic electricity consumption in Bahawalpur City has been investigated. Results have been formulated by critically analyzing collected data. It is also helpful in predicting futuristic needs in case of consumption of electricity in Bahawalpur. Obtained positive values of regression coefficients for all corresponding dependent variables, indicate that there is positive
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dependence of all variables on population growth. It is concluded and analyzed that in the coming years there will be positive relationship of dependent variables on population growth on the basis of present and previous years collected data. There is a need to shift country’s policy from good Government to good Governance. REFERENCES Alahdad, Ziad 2012 Pakistan's Energy Sector: From Crisis to Crisis: Breaking the Chain: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Blazquez, Leticia, Fabian Heimsch, and Massimo Filippini 2013 The Economic Crisis and Residential Electricity Consumption in Spanish Provinces: A Spatial Econometric Analysis: Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule Zürich, CER-ETH-Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich. Collomb, Alexis 2004 Dynamic Asset Allocation by Stochastic Programming Methods. Stanford University.
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