The Explorer Islamabad: Journal of Social Sciences ISSN: 2411-0132(E), 2411-5487(P) Vol-1, Issue (12): 449-456 www.theexplorerpak.org
VOTING BEHAVIOR AND ELECTIONS IN PAKISTAN (A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTANI ELECTION METHODS AND METHODOLOGY) Jamil Ahmed Sheikh, Syeda Samar Shahid Bokhari, Mrs. Riffat Naseer Corresponding Author: Syeda Samar Shahid Bokhari samar.bokhari@uow.edu.pk
Abstract: This research paper explores some of the criteria set for elections and the conditions in which the respondents participate. Moreover, the voters’mindset was investigated by drawing the illustrations from newspapers, television, religious, social and particular political condition in the midst of elections as well as its impact on their voting behavior.The study consisted of male and female groups of registered voters, who belonged to urban and rural (sub-urban) areas of Taxila and Wah Cantt, the two major cities of Punjab that make significant difference in the final results of the elections. Our test group consisted of 600 respondents from the area, 383 male voters and 217 female voters. The study proved the variables to be highly significant in light of the demographics. The findings revealed casting of votes was not mostly by the free will of respondents, rather it was imposed by the structure of the society by providing a strict guidelines for voting criteria. The political behavior contains special directions and instructions in both rural and urban areas in terms of authoritarian personalities (feudal system), shaping public opinion, manipulated mass communication, religious manifesto, Eastern Politics, illiterate masses and so on. The paper further analyzes and reveals that the decision and behavior of the voters, to some extent can be resultant of the external factors contributing to the overall political system. Key Words: Political Parties, Voting Behavior, Traditional, Cultural factors INTRODUCTION Man is a communal being, and hence he is a fundamental element of all social life. His involvement in the social structure is unwavering. Thus the whole social structure is based upon the decisions and actions of man. However, the strength and modes of participation are pertinent variable in political scrutiny. Humans’ voting conduct is an essential feature and a gateway of understanding the willingness of respondents. In democratic and egalitarian societies, voting is a significant instrument providing opportunities to the respondents to become vibrant citizens instead of inactive subjects. The core element of political advertisement and promotion is disbursement of money by the candidates so that they may be endorsed at that final moment i.e. the elections. Therefore, it is of paramount importance to comprehend why voters behave in a particular way with a particular mindset, rather than simply casting
votes on the basis of merit. To recognize on what grounds one candidate wins or loses an election; can only be understood by identifying voting conduct, which may make the candidate capable of spending time and money efficiently. Sociologists have long focused on the affiliation of individuals with their own ethnic group, social background as the key determinants of voting behavior while political scientist in the past have argued on the influence of party membership and voting conduct. Masses generally in Pakistan are unfamiliar with the system and the true spirit of elections. In the early 23 years, from Independence 1947, there were no elections in Pakistan. From 1970 to 2010 nation went through four consecutive regimes of dictatorship. Recurrent military intervention stops the progression of any country and Pakistan suffered from such blockade continuously. Another dilemma has been constant changes in election system since independence.
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Consequently the political structure of Pakistan is still at its stage of infancy. Central to any political system is its political behavior and mindset. It is not only an ingredient of political existence but communal life as well (Ahmed 2007). Any citizen of Pakistan, not less than 18 years of age on the first day of the January of the year in which the listings of voters are prepared or revised, if not declared by a competent court to be of unsound mind and is deemed to be the resident of an electoral area, can get himself enrolled as a potential voter in the electoral area. Only the citizens registered on the electoral roll are eligible to cast their vote. (Gallup Pakistan 2008). Sheth 1975 and Bruce I. Newman and Jagdish N. Sheth 1985 described the fundamental criterion of voting behavior to contain seven distinctive and individual cognitive realms that instruct, shape and compel the behavior of respondents. There are four dimensions of issues and policies, which are as follows: Overall Economic policy, Foreign policy, Social policy, Leadership characteristics First and second aspects refer to all pertinent major and minor reference groups who will support the candidates and their strength should be considered. Support and strength associated with demographic features (age, sex, religion), Socio-economic factors (wages, profession), cultural/ethnic (race, lifestyle) or political and social ideology (democratic, social, Marxist or Islamic). Third dimension refers to emotional feelings which signify the emotional dimension of responding future trust to be very effective such as hope, responsibility, sympathy and patriotism. Fourth image of candidate refers to the personality traits. Fifth, existing proceedings indicate towards questions, strategies and shortcomings of earlier or conflicting government and candidate correspondingly build up and exploited route to their campaign. 6thly, events personal to one’s life that that motivates or modify the mind of the voters. Last are epistemic problems that indicate changes in socio-political hierarchy based on knowledge and seeming contentment of curiosity.
Mass communication is one of the most powerful and influential source which shapes reshapes and clothes the inclinations of the masses. It includes television, radio, news papers and internet, and they are enough to control the mind and body of mass in everyday life particularly during election days. If we analyze the contents of different political programs and advertisement on media, they are key to influencing and providing controlled and desirable information: political information such as future policy, credibility of opposition leaders. It served two purposes; at one level political candidatesdismissed desire and restrictedto information at mass media and at other level media owners are protecting their own interests. So media is protecting the interest of elite, which (Herman and Chomsky 1988) discussed in propaganda model. A number of studies have been conducted on the power of media and different result are revealed in different parts of the world because of their experiences. witness only a partial number of people clothing the concept of the voters from mass media. Later studies suggested that political communication had special effects on the audience by modifying the ideas of people. According to the political scientists voting behavior is subjective to the social class-system with some more factors e.g. religion, village political ideals and city political ideals, the ethnicity, and the specific regions. In the villages, the awareness is limited hence feudalism is more to be seen. But even worse so, in the cities there is ethnicity. Some divide their politics on the lines of religion and secularism. This imbalance of attitude towards voting is due to slackness of the prevailing governing bodies. They can set new values for the voting system, but unfortunately same British voting procedure is still there in a more organized way. They reserved separate seats for the villagers and for the city areas in the early 19th century. Just the feudal or landlords were allowed to stand in contestant list, only they were selected. So the lower class was always to give votes to their own landlords and none else, and were punished if failed to do so.
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METHODOLOGY In order to authenticate our research we have employed methodology of focused group discussions, as well as scheduled questionnaire related to the research. All of our 600 respondents, 383 males and 217 females, were given full scope of expression, personal communiquĂŠ, and true to thoughts statements; Judgment of their voting behavior being the basis of our cross-communication. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION It is generally believed that democratic system emerges out of popular vote. Voting behavior is imperativesince it helps in knowingthe will of the respondents. The total turnout (rural and urban) and wining candidate provides a great opportunity to understand and analyze the democratic system and voting behavior. The socio-political settings also shape and reshape Table. 1: Sample size of respondents Age Youth(18-30) Middle age(30-50) Older(above50) Total Grand Total
Males Frequency 142 153 88 383 600
Percentage 37% 40% 23% 100%
This table illustrates the sample size and age composition of the respondents. The sample size was 600 respondents: out of 600 respondents 383 were males and 217 were females. Further the age composition of males, 142/383 are the young, 153/383 are the middle aged, 88/383 are the older, among these 37% of the young males cast their votes, 40%of the middle agedrespondents cast their votes and 23% of the older males cast their votes, while the females are 217/600 in which 65/217 are the young, 96/217 are the middle aged females and 56/217 are the older. Among these 30% of the young females cast their votes and 44% of the middle aged cast their votes where as 26% of old aged females cast their votes. This sample was drawn in order to conclude the opinion of both male and female and also of different ages. Table. 2:Education of the Respondents Age Youth(18-30) Middle age(31-50) Older(above50)
Literate 80-85% 70-75% 40-45%
Illiterate 15-20% 25-30% 55-60 %
the voting behavior and at the end “democratic� power comes into existence. The voting behavior is shaped and reshaped at two levels. At first level it emphasizes on the socio-cultural settings particularly which affects on the voting behavior such as religion, social group (caste and ethnicity), feudal structure, seat adjustment and power and authority. At the second level it emphasizesupon the other techniques such as deception, spreading rumors, believing conspiracy theories and hyper projection of candidate at print and electronic media. As a result, respondentsdo not even have choice to cast vote appropriately. Another reason which matters a lot is that of information regarding the potential candidates. In majority of the cases, respondents knew very little about the number of candidates, who participate in election Females Frequency 65 96 56 217
Percentage 30% 44% 26% 100%
If we observe the participation of respondents in elections and their voting in terms of educational level, we find out more educated respondents showed less interest in previous elections but less educated respondents were more interested in casting of votes. Now in present situation after 5 years of completion of PPP government, many educated respondents showed interest in voting. This depicts that youngest groups and old strata of the population voted more, married voted less than single people, and very importantly it fails when associations in terms of economic, ethnicity and social classes are attached with politics. Table. 3:Voting Behavior on the Basis of Class Classes
Voting average in %age
Lower
95%
Middle
70%
Upper
45%
This illustrates the participation rate of respondents according toincome level. The majority of the respondents cast votes and participate belongs to lower strata of the class. The reason behind this behavior includes ethnic
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solidarity, religious configurations, master and slave structure, Duakhair (coalition/ unity among locale leader) and peerimuridi (spirituality and believer)and old coalition party base etc. Whereas middle class has some different approaches towards voting behavior. Almost 40% population does notcast their votes: with a straight away comment, “the election is a drama and his/her vote will not bring change. The voting ratio of rural population outnumber the city votes making it quite difficult to cast vote to a deserving person. All the incompetent candidates contest with each other. So, it is useless activity and wastage of time”. Some respondents looked into another approach and still have some hope. They are of the view, “At least cast your vote and evaluate the candidates according to their previous performance. In this regard media spread awareness for general public regarding candidates, so hopefully our efforts may bring change”. Among them there are respondents who cast vote on the basis of ethnicity and peerimuridi (loyalty to the feudal lords). On the other hand, theupper class of the locale showed lessinterest in casting votes. Only a small Table. 4: Previous Experience of Voting Sr. No
Respondents
Cast vote Party
1
Male
2
Female Total
to
number of respondents cast their votes. They assert casting vote as useless and frivolous activity. According to the Election Commission of Pakistan the total turnout in 2008 elections was about 42%, which is not even the half of the total population but in district Rawalpindi voters showed more interest than the other districts of Pakistan. The turnout showed a great diversity on different basis such as personality, religious affiliation of the political leaders/representatives, and their affiliation to different political parties based on their caste, family affiliation, tribal/ethnic affiliation etc. The participation in voting is meaningless particularly in a traditional society if the head of the family is religious person; the head of the economic institute, government or political office is prominent, then the output of elections will be totally biased.So, one cannot connect and correlate social participation of a voter in different areas or spheres of participation (financial status, family, peer group, political, cultural or religious) those will cause to change in social behavior during election.
Previous
Cast vote to new party As Previously
Cast no Vote
92
168
40
66
67
44
158
235
84
This table illustrates the voting pattern of the respondents, whom they are going to cast vote. About 158 males and females repeated the same experience as of previous election. While on the other hand, about 235 do not follow their previous behavior. 84 respondents are not interested to cast votes. About 123 respondents are going to cast their votes for the first time. This depicts that the women vote less in comparison to men, youngest groups and oldstrata of the population vote more, married vote less than single people, and the very importantly it fails when economic and ethnicity and social classes are attached with the politics. The turnout figures out with age, sex, urbanrural, occupation and the voting system. Lower
turnout is the result of less women participation rate, service workers, non participation of the same ethnic group, no confidence on political and democratic system, religious, cultural factors, media reports previous policies etc. whereas, increase in turnout includes authoritarian, ethnicity, religious media information and economic factors, middle class. While factors affecting voting turnout are media information, government policies, access to information, group pressures. So, people don’t vote rationally, rather their decision are influenced by the economic, authoritarian, religious and something else, other than rationality.
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Table. 5: Reasons for not Casting Votes S# 1 2 3 4 5
Reason behind not casting of votes Lack of access to polling stations No change bring through ballot box Migrants Unavailability of the same bridari or ethnic group No reason Total
Frequency 02 39 03 21 18 84
%age 2.38 46.43 3.57 25 21.42 100
This table illustrates the reasons for not casting votes. 02 respondents depict that polling station was not in their range. 39 respondents showed that no change will come through ballot. 03 respondents were migrants and their votes are not registered in the new constituency. 21 voters claimed that representative of their bridari(family group) or ethnic group was not contesting in that constituency. 18 respondents had no reason but still they were not interested to cast votes. Table.6:Political Stratification with Time and economic trouble in the country. Some Space respondents were in favor of PML(N) because Political Party Voters they thought that party had proved itself by No of % bringing a lot of development into the province of respondents Punjab and they would like to vote due to Old Political Party 158 26.33 successful experiment of Atomic Bomb in the era New Political Party 235 39.2 of PML(N), with the hope that they would do the Martial Law 73 12.2 same development in whole country as they had Religious Party 50 8.33 done in Punjab. 39.2% respondents were in favor No vote 84 14 of new political parties (PTI and independent Total 600 100 candidates) because they arefed up by the Old political party includes the (PML N, PML Q, performance of previousparties. 12.2% PPPP etc) respondents were in support of Martial Law. They New Political party (TehreekInsaf, Independent thought that more development took place in the Candidates) era of Martial Law and everyone was bound to do Martial Law ( Supporting Pakistan Army) work without creating disorder and Religious Party (Jamat-e-Islami, JamiyatUlmae disturbance.8.33% respondents were in favor of Islam (F)) JI and JUI as they thought that those religious Among the sample study of 600 respondents, parties would govern the country according to 26.33% were in favor to vote old political parties. the injunctions of Islam. While 14% respondents We observed that they votedfor PPPPout of did not cast their votes because they thought sympathy because of the murder of Zulfiqar Ali that whoever came in the governance would Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto, but mostly endeavor for their own interests disregarding the respondents thought that their 5 years national interests. governance was very poor and they brought Table.7:Political Stratification No of respondents %age Party Base 68 13.2 Personality Base 108 20.1 Religion Base 22 4.3 Cultural/Ethnic Group Base 184 35.6 Developmental Base 97 18.8 Other Reasons 37 7.2 V. O. Key (1961) introduced concept of "political classes have anelevated level of participation stratification". Alone with the general level of than upper class. Data of different field surveys participation in election and political involvement show lower levels of participation from business is a subject matter of social and structural class but higher level of participation in rural stratification. For instance, middle and lower areas among masses. In this study, political
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polarization is highly associated with class structure; the major population of the workingclass participation can be observed in politics. So, in this area, where class-based polarization do exist. Above table illustrates the reasons for casting votes on the basis of several affiliations mentioned in above table. Among male voters party affiliation is the major factor of one sided mind set. Another important factor related to voting behavior is friends’ affiliation, 13.2% respondents showed party affiliation for casting votes. Although the party has no clear vision of progress still people want to elect them due to family terms and relative involvement.20.1% respondents were in favor of the personality of representative. They think that charismatic and self-motivated personalityis the key to success.Here in this case the personality represents the face, style & fashion followed by that leader. It is unfortunate to know how voter decide to cast vote when he/she has to differentiate between personality and parties. In case of party based voting, respondent cast vote according to his/her perception, ideology about party interest or position of his/her party's candidate. He/she has to decide how to cast vote, what choice one should make particularly when candidates are offering different programs and projects and highlighting probems of day to day matters. So, parties can be explained as higher level of ideological polarization of Pakistani society. Another dilemma is the good or bad identification of the party on the basis of ethnicity or group and subgroup. In case of personality based voting, respondent is more interested in manifesto of the party, addressing the real issues of masses, influential, honest and track record. 4.3% respondents portray the religious attachments.35.6% respondents give their support to cultural and ethnic groups. These powerful groups keep the respondents under Table. 8:Role of Media S# 1 2 3 4
Reason behind not casting of votes Printed material like newspapers Electronic media Don’t Read or watch anything Other (Religion, Feudal, Ethnicity) Total
their influence and authority. One can also differentiate in religious and sub-cultural involvement. When sub-cultural and religious factors penetrate in politics, it divides population on the basis of structural stratification. As MQM in Pakistan, distinguished itself from other parties and played a political trump card on the basis of ethnicity. The leader of JUI(F) is famous religious and political leader still he used a political card on the basis of religion. Voting on the basis of religious affiliationis higher in females than the males. Here also media plays a major role. As the person who is more liked by females population, appears to be having religious affiliation. 18.8% respondents wanted to elect the representatives on the basis of their previous performance. Mostly respondents decided to vote on the basis of developmental activities done by the candidates. For example, PML(Q) in Musharaf era, PML(N) in PPP era brought about a lot of developmental activities in Punjab. So, respondents see their interests in development and decided to vote.Here some other factors are also involved in voting behavior of respondents, such as sympathy and personality, language, race, area, any type of resemblance with the candidate etc. Here the comparison of both sexes showed another diverse approach as males have more exposure to real world or outside house world. But females have exposure is just through media. So, their voting behavior has colors of manipulation & conspiracy advertisement done by some political rivals through media. The major factors for their voting a particular person are the personality of that candidate. A good looking & attractive candidate has more chances to attain maximum woman vote. In the same way more attractive female candidates/ political leaders are more likely to attract males and attain more votes from them. Frequency 102 157 121 220
%age 17% 26.16% 20.16% 36.6%
600
100%
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Media plays a very important role in the inferences of the voting behavior as well as make up the mind of the voters. In other words the selection of right candidate is sometimes made easy through the media, either print like newpapers, magazines, or the electronic media T.V internet etc. As the research proceeded we find that 17% of all the respondents make up their mind in favor or against the contestents individually, 26.16% watch electronic media, the most pathetic of all 20.16% don’t read or watch anything. These can be the ones who either don’t want to change their mindset about the political contestants or they are least interested. A big part of our respondents 36.6% showed several other interests which play important role in their decision for voting, it includes religion, feudal impressions, ethnicity etc. This group also includes the family loyal people who whatever the outcome never change their opinion and always go with the crowd. CONCLUSION Hence, by the above discussion we come to the conclusion that the respondents have different perceptions about different political parties.They cast their vote with the hope that the government would sincerely and dedicatedly make efforts for the development of the country but unfortunatelythis is not the case.We found during the research that in males the major two factorsinfluenced the voting patterns: Party Affiliation Ethnicity & Caste Affiliation and family trends to any particular group. Venomenous to the free political judgement is the party affiliation. Throughout the research males voters seemed more prone to the loyalty towards their party. Their enthusiasm runs unhindered whatever the results of their previous choice could be, once they pledged their loyalty it runs like blood into their veins. Here the free judgement and free will ceases to be. In comparison women are less prone to the political loyalty. Married women tend to follow their husbands in the middle and lower class strata of society. Unmarried are either least interested in politics or follow the trend at family elders. The data showed that the only factor that has a great influence over the voting behavior of both the sexes is the ethnicity and caste affiliation or family political mindset. If the elders
of the family have announced to give votes to a particular candidate then it is decided for everyone of the family member The data showed that the voting behavior of all the respondents in Wah Cantt (100% education) is still based on different social factors instead of being based on rationality. This is the root cause of the similar faces coming to the government and doing what they did before.This is the reason why new faces and new system has become difficult to be implemented by the government of Pakistan. Ifin an educated city this system persists then the areas where the literacy is not even 30% it looks like impossible to eliminate that vicious system. Until & unless that traditional voting behavior based on different alliances or affiliation or sympathy factors is not substituted with a rational approach towards voting, the authority cannot possibly be transferred to sincere representatives who could lead Pakistan towards the ultimate goal i.eprogress. Hence the most important aspect has been unearthed through this paper and that is the enchained voting behavior. The slavery of attitudes and limited considered choice not only hurdles the practice of a system free of all such influencing aspects. A system which upholds the supremacy of honesty and free will. The system which sprouts out of such clean and authentic practice of discretion by the voters can only be the first step towards the prosperity of the country. Once the voters realize the good out of bad even the same political system can unveil marvels, an example of which would hardly be found anywhere in the world. The foundation of truthful system can only be laid if the voters have an eye to judge the truth, by their free will. Indeed, the process of politics is the progression of decision making for a better setup of a society. Politics is a community – system. A community as a whole select, exercising their decision power, a leader who in return works for the common objectives within the community. The success is made only if all the people of that community use their power of decision in a right way. They should look into the reality coming out of the feudalism and cast their vote with awareness of the decision and with ultimate consciousness. REFERENCES
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Ahmad, Mughees 2007 Legitimacy Crises in Pakistan (A Comparative Study of Political Behaviour). Journal of Political Studies:1-14. Gallup Pakistan 2008 Exit poll – Election Day Survey. Election. 2008. Gallup Pakistan in collaboration with PILDAT exclusively for the Daily Business Recorder and Aaj TV. Herman, Edward, Noam Chomsky 1988 Manufacturing The Political Economy Mass Media. New York: books.
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Publication Date: Dec-31 -2015 © 2015“The Explorer Islamabad” Journal of Social Sciences-Pakistan
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