Avocado Industry - The avocado express

Massive investment in avocado orchards will double production within the next few years. But who will buy the all the excess fruit come harvest?

Words IAN LLOYD NEUBAUER

One generation ago, the humble avocado was a slap-dash breakfast spread used when the Vegemite had run out. That changed at the turn of the last century when the global health-food craze and our abundance of fresh produce gave birth to modern Australian cuisine – a whimsical fusion of simple foods cooked and presented exceptionally well. Yet no dish in the repartee was simpler or more whimsical than smashed avocado on toast.

The upmarket sandwich filling is the signature dish at Flinders Lane and a wave of Australian-themed cafes that are the toast of the town in New York. And it made global headlines in 2017 when Australian property tycoon Tim Gurner told 60 Minutes: “When I was trying to buy my first home, I wasn’t buying smashed avocado for $19”.

Over the next few days, Gurner received more than 1,000 interview requests from reporters as far away as Russia and Brazil. Such was the craze that when Gurner refused to comment, the paparazzi tracked down his wife and kids. What started as a throwaway remark on housing affordability in Australia became part of the storied history of a creamy green fruit and a new-age superfood that is technically a berry.

BUMPER CROPS

The global avocado market is worth of whopping $20 billion and still has room to grow, according to TMR. By 2026, the market researcher predicts the industry will be worth $31.5 billion.

Mexico, the birthplace of the avocado, produced nearly 40 per cent of global supply last year, up 6 per cent from 2018. Peru and Chile export most of their avocados to the US, while the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Indonesia export avocados, too.

In Australia production has increased 60% in the past decade to reach 86,000 tonnes a year according to data collected by peak industry body Avocados Australia. But very little of the harvest is exported – only 3.7%, because Australia has the most expensive avocados in the word. Farmers can get more for them here.

Queensland and Western Australia are the largest avocado-growing states; only 14per cent of the harvest is grown in NSW. Production has more than doubled in the past decade hitting 12,000 tonnes in 2019 – while January's rain event is promising an even bigger crop in 2020.

“Without a doubt, it has been a really good industry to be in on the back of hard work and good marketing,” says Tom Silver, a second-generation avocado farmer in northern NSW and chair of Avocados Australia’s Export Committee. “Whenever an industry does well you get new people jumping into it and there's a lot of that happening now in the state, mainly on the mid-north coast.

“There is plenty of room for new players but to plant an avocado orchard you need a big farm with really good, well-drained soil, and there is only so much of that kind of land in NSW. So most of the growth in avocado farming will continue to be in Far North Queensland and Western Australia where the really big avocado farms are getting even bigger.”

The event-prone weather in Australia's south-east will also continue to pose a challenge for avocado growers in NSW, Silver says: “If the last 12 months have taught us anything, it's that weather affects everything we do. There will be frost, there will be floods and there will be more drought.”

THE ROAD AHEAD

The avocado industry was not meaningfully affected by COVID-19. Losses in sales to the foodservice sector were reconciled by higher grocery store sales, especially during the panic buying of March when YouTube videos on how to freeze an avocado went viral, attracting millions of views.

But the industry will soon face a far more difficult challenge. Right now, Australia produces about 20 million avocados per year. But if Avocado Australia's projections prove accurate, that number will double within a few short years.

“Two-thirds of the avocado trees in Australian ground are not even in production. They are still maturing,” says second-generation Western Australian avocado farmer Jennie Franceschi. “The south-west of WA now looks like the Barossa Valley but instead of vineyards, they're all avocado trees. Like the wine industry, a lot of farmers jumped on the avocado bandwagon and soon we'll go into oversupply.”

Avocado Australia CEO John Hess says his organisation is working on the problem. “We are trying to increase domestic consumption with a lot of marketing and promotional activity,” he says. “At the moment, 73% of Australian households consume avocados. That indicates that there is room for growth.”

But even if household penetration reaches 100%, the market will move far into oversupply.

“We know domestic consumption won't be sufficient so we're going to have to ramp up export activities,” Hess says. “Currently we export to Singapore, Malaysia and a little to Hong Kong, but we really need to access the larger markets in Asia – India and China. Last year we managed to get access to the Japanese market but only with avocados from fruit fly-free zones in WA and the Riverland of South Australia. We still have a lot of work to do.”

Franceschi, whose father was one of three pioneering avocado farmers in the 1970s who invested in the legal framework that gave WA its fruit fly-free status, agrees.

“It was an example of how early adopters invested time and money to grow a strong industry that benefitted everyone – not just themselves,” she says. “Now the industry has to do the same again by committing to long-term contracts at global prices,” Franceschi says. “Growers need to band together and put long-term viability ahead of short-term gains.”

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Strange avocado products

Avocado honey: Made in Finland from avocado blossom nectar. Has a syrupy taste with notes of licorice.

Cubed avocado: A no-mess, no-fuss prepackaged solution sold frozen at supermarkets in Sweden.

Avocado herbal tea: Made from avocado leaves in Indonesia. Inhibits the formation of kidney stones.

Avocado oil mayonnaise: More expensive than other edible oils with a high smoke point. Great for salads and dips. Popular in Russia.

Dr Chung’s Food Vegemil Kiwi Avocado Soy Milk: Made in South Korea. Described as “delicious, nutritious and fun”.