Mielke Market Weekly

Prices labored to show movement in holiday-shortened week

This column was written for the marketforecast, but up 11.1 bushels from last is forecast at 9.01 million acres, down 3 percent ing week ending Sept. 11. year. Area harvested for grain was forefrom the previous forecast and 22 percent below Higher milk prices are — and will — fuel more milk output. The U.S. Department of Agriculture again raised cast at 83.5 million acres, down 1 percent from the previous forecast, but up 3 percent from a year ago. 2019. All cotton planted area totaled 12.1 million acres, down 1 percent from the August forecast and 12 percent below 2019. its 2020 and 2021 milk production foreCorn used for ethanol was lowered 100 The latest Crop Progress report showed 97 percast from last month’s estimate in the million bushels based on the continued cent of U.S. corn was in the dough stage as of the latest World Agriculture Supply and slow recovery in motor gasoline demand week ending Sept. 6. This is up from 87 percent a Demand Estimates report issued Sept. 11. The department cited higher expected growth in milk per cow on both forecasts. MIELKE MARKET WEEKLY as a result of Covid-19. Exports were raised 100 million bushels reflecting reduced supplies in competitor countries. year ago and 3 percent ahead of the five-year average. Seventy-nine percent is dented, up from 51 percent a year ago and 8 percent ahead of the five-year With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks were lowered 253 million bushels from last month. The corn price was raised 40 cents to $3.50 per bushel. 2020 production and marketings were estimated at 222 and 221 billion pounds respectively, up 200 million pounds on production from their July estimate and up 300 million pounds on marBy Lee Mielke MARKETING average. Sixty-one percent was rated good to excellent, up from 55 percent a year ago. The report shows 20 percent of U.S. soybeans are dropping leaves, up from 7 percent a year ago and 4 percent ahead of the five-year average. Sixty-five ketings. If realized, 2020 production would be up 3.6 U.S. soybean supply and use changes included lower percent were rated good to excellent, up from 55 billion pounds or 1.6 percent from 2019. beginning stocks, production and ending stocks. percent a year ago. 2021 production and marketings were estimated at 225.4 and 224.4 billion pounds respectively, up 100 million pounds on both. If realized, 2021 production would be up 3.4 billion pounds or 1.5 percent from 2020. The 2020 fat basis import forecast was lowered, primarily on recent trade data and the expectation of slower butterfat imports. The fat basis export forecast was raised on stronger global import demand for cheese, butter and whey products. The skim-solids basis import forecast was unchanged from the previous month, while the export forecast was raised on expectations of robust exports of nonfat dry milk and whey products. Cheese, butter, and Lower beginning stocks reflect increases in exports and crush for 2019-20, according to the WASDE. The Crop Production report shows soybean production at 4.31 billion bushels, down 3 percent from last month’s forecast but up 21 percent from last year. Yields were expected to average a record high 51.9 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.4 bushels from the previous forecast but 4.5 bushels above 2019. Area harvested for beans was forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from a month ago, but 11 percent higher than 2019. Soybean and product prices were projected higher for 2020-21. The U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast at $9.25 per bushel, up 90 cents from n Prices were mixed in the Labor Day holiday-shortened week. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange cheddar blocks marched to $2.1575 per pound on Sept. 9, slipped back, but rallied to a Sept. 11 close at $2.1650. This is up 4 cents on the week, but 4 cents below a year ago when they jumped almost 21 cents. The barrels got to $1.7150 on Sept. 8, but reversed the next day and finished Sept. 11 at $1.5950. This is down 10.5 cents on the week, 32.50 cents below a year ago, and 57 cents below the blocks, third highest spread ever, at the close of trading. Thirteen cars of block exchanged hands on the week and 19 of barrel. whey price forecasts were reduced from last month, last month. The soybean meal price was projected at n but the forecast for nonfat dry milk was unchanged. $315 per short ton, up $25. The soybean oil price Lots of eyes are on California where scorching

The Class III milk price forecast was reduced on forecast was 32.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents. high temperatures and wild fires have taken their lower cheese and whey price forecasts. Look for the Cotton production was forecast at 17.1 million toll on man and beast. We shall see if Golden State 2020 Class III average to hit $17.25 per hundred480-pound bales, down 6 percent from last month’s milk output may be impacted. Parts of Oregon and weight . This would be down 15 cents from last estimate and 14 percent below a year ago. Yields Washington State have also seen their share of month’s forecast and compares to a $16.96 average are expected to average a record 910 pounds per fires, smoke and devastation. The glorious view of in 2019 and $14.61 in 2018. The 2021 average is harvested acre, down 28 pounds from last month’s Mt. Baker from my home office was clouded in projected at $16.00, down a dime from what was forecast but 87 pounds above 2019. Harvested area See MIELKE, pg. 18 anticipated a month ago. The Class IV price forecast was reduced on the lower butter price. The Class IV is expected to averFunds to update livestock operations age $13.40 per cwt., down 15 cents from last month’s estimate, and compares to a $16.30 average in 2019 and $14.23 in 2018. The 2021 Class IV average was projected at $13.60, down a nickel from a month ago ST. PAUL — Minnesota livestock farmers and ranchers seeking to improve their livestock operation are encouraged to apply for the Agricultural Growth, Research and Innovation (AGRI) Livestock Investment Grant program. The Minnesota project’s total cost. Grant awards can range in size from $400 to $25,000. Each livestock operation is eligible to receive a lifetime maximum of $50,000 from this grant program. To be eligible for reimbursement by this grant, you must be invoiced and pay for

This month’s 2020-21 U.S. corn outlook is for Department of Agriculture anticipates awarding up all project materials and services between Jan. 1, reduced production, lower corn used for ethanol, to $789,000 using a competitive review process. 2021 and Dec. 31, 2022. larger exports, and smaller ending stocks, according to the WASDE. The AGRI program’s Livestock Improvement Grants encourage long-term industry development Proposals must be received no later than Nov. 4. 4 p.m. on The Crop Production report shows U.S. corn output at 14.9 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last month’s forecast but up 9 percent from 2019. in Minnesota’s $7 billion livestock industry through investment in facilities, infrastructure and equipment. The program encourages new farmers and Applications are available online at mda.state.mn.us/. https://www. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average a record 178.5 bushels per hargenerational transitions in order to sustain the live stock industry in the state. This article was submitted by the Minnesota Department of Agriculture. v vested acre, down 3.3 bushels from last month’s Applicants may apply for up to 10 percent of their