THE LAND — FEBRUARY 5/FEBRUARY 12, 2021
www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
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U.S. soybean ending stocks saw big drop in January NYSTROM, from pg. 16 Wire services reported that Farm Futures conducted a farmer survey for U.S. planting intentions in January. Corn acreage was estimated at 94.7 million, up 3.9 million acres from last year’s 90.8 million planted corn acres. For soybeans, acres came in at a minimal 84.5 million acres, an increase of only 1.4 million from last year’s 83.1 million planted acres. The soybean number particularly seems low considering the amount of prevented plant acres in 2020 and the current corn-to-soybean new crop ratio. Outlook: Old crop prices this week consolidated after setting new contract highs in the March contract. The upcoming WASDE report, demand, and how Brazil’s safrinha corn planting progresses will be factors to watch. Fundamentals remain friendly. The new crop was firm this week as we need acres this spring. For the week, March corn was up 1.5 cents at $5.48.5, while the July contract fell a quarter-cent to $5.36.25, and the December corn rallied 6.5 cents to $4.51.75 per bushel. SOYBEANS — Additional rain in Argentina has likely halted any yield decline, but rain in Brazil has gotten soybean harvest off to a slow start as well as delaying the safrinha corn planting. Rumors that China was switching February soybean purchases to the United States on concern of execution in Brazil lent support to the soybean market this week. There have been a few suggestions that China’s pig herd expansion may slow down with an increase in African swine fever cases. We didn’t have any daily export sales flashes for soybeans this week. Brazil’s trucker strike began this week but has not had a big impact on shipments since the pace of the soybean harvest has been the slowest in 10 years. Argentina’s trucker strike has been moving from southern ports to northern ports and reportedly has had a bigger impact on markets than the one in Brazil. Trucks arriving at the Rosario export hub
where 80 percent of agricultural exports move through was seeing reduced traffic. The BAGE showed Argentina’s soybean rating in the poor/very category rose from 10 percent to 13 percent. Last week, the BAGE lowered their Argentine soybean production .5 mmt to 46 mmt. The Argentina government this week stated they had not ruled out increasing export taxes on food products. As of Feb. 2, the Brazilian soybean harvest was pegged at 2 percent complete vs. 7 percent on average. In the high producing Mato Grosso province harvest was 5 percent complete vs. 27 percent on average. Their safrinha corn planting was 3 percent complete vs. 14 percent on average with Mato Grosso 6 percent complete vs. 22 percent on average. Weekly soybean export sales were 30.3 million bushels bringing total commitments to 2.155 billion bushels. This is 96.6 percent of the USDA’s 2.23 billion bushel export forecast. We need to average 3.1 million bushels per week of sales to meet the forecast. We have shipped 78 percent of the USDA’s total export projection in the first five months of the marketing year. China has just 110 million bushels of unshipped U.S. soybeans remaining on the books for this marketing year after buying a total of 1.3 billion bushels. This should curtail ideas that they won’t take all they’ve bought. New crop sales this week were 23.3 million bushels with 19.4 million bushels of the total to China. Last year China had not bought any new crop soybeans by this date. Total new crop soybean sales are 156 million bushels compared to just 11 million bushels last year by this date. A December record-setting National Agricultural Statistics Service Oilseed Crush of 193.8 million bushels was also the second-highest for any month. This did little to impress the market but keeps the pace of demand top of mind. Soyoil stocks were at an eight-year high at 2.2 billion pounds.
China has been reporting cases of a new mutation of African swine fever. They believe it originated from illegal vaccines. It is thought to be less deadly than the original ASF, but it may slow down the rebuilding of pig herds. China missed the $36.5 billion Phase 1 trade deal target in 2020 for agricultural products. China bought $28.75 billion worth of ag commodities which was still a record. The average trade estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks is 123 million bushels compared to 140 million bushels last month. World ending stocks were expected to be 83.30 mmt compared to 84.31 mmt last month. Argentina’s soybean production was pegged at 47.6 mmt vs. 48 mmt in January and Brazil’s production at 132.46 mmt vs. 133 mmt previously. The Chinese New Year public holiday celebration begins Feb. 11 and lasts until Feb. 17. We would normally expect business to be slow during this time. Outlook: The rollercoaster market has not come to a complete stop, but nearby futures coiled around the 20-day moving average throughout the week. The 20-day moving average at the close on Feb. 5 was $13.75 per bushel. The February WASDE report will be published on Feb. 9. How fast or slow Brazil’s soybean pace proceeds, as well as corn planting progress, and any new export demand will be key issues to monitor. For the week, March beans were down 3.25 cents at $13.66.75, July declined a penny to $13.47.75, while the November contract jumped 18 cents to $11.61 per bushel. We’ll need acres this spring to avoid another tight year. Nystrom’s notes: Contract changes for the week as of the close on Feb. 5: Chicago wheat tumbled 21.75 cents to $6.41.25, Kansas City declined 12.75 cents to $6.25.25, and Minneapolis lost 12 cents to close at $6.26 per bushel. There is uncertainty about how Russia’s wheat export tax situation plays out. v
Noxious weeds spread to nine new Minnesota counties ST. PAUL — The Minnesota Department of Agriculture recently confirmed six species of weeds on the state’s noxious weed prohibited eradicate list have been found for the first time in nine counties in 2020. Weeds categorized as “prohibited eradicate” are the worst types of weeds. The law requires species on this list to have all above- and below-ground plant parts destroyed because the weeds may be harmful to public health, the environment, public roads, crops, livestock or other property. The new finds were: Common teasel (Dipsacus fullonum) in Dakota and Olmsted counties; Cutleaf teasel (Dipsacus laciniatus) in Martin County; Dalmatian toadflax (Linaria dalamtica) in Cass County; Meadow knapweed (Cenaurea x moncktonii) in Norman County; Palmer amaranth (Amaranthus
palmeri) in Winona County; and Poison hemlock (Conium maculatum) in Steele, Watonwan and Waseca counties. Common and cutleaf teasels are closely related, short-lived perennials which have spiny, stiff flowers and seed heads. They prefer sunny, open habitats such as roadsides or pastures. Dalmatian toadflax is a perennial with yellow flowers which grows in sandy or gravelly soils. Meadow knapweed is a deep-rooted perennial with pink flowers that grows in sunny, wet conditions. Palmer amaranth is a high-profile noxious weed of row crops. Poison hemlock is a highly-toxic plant which looks similar to wild carrot and grows in moist areas and along rights of way.
Collaboration with multiple agencies and organizations throughout the state, including county agricultural inspectors, township supervisors, and city mayors, helps the MDA successfully detect noxious weeds on the eradicate list and confirm unrecognized species. The MDA verifies the reports and, when possible, collects samples for the official University of Minnesota herbarium records. As the regulatory agency for managing noxious weeds, the MDA also helps local governments with weed management and enforcement of the Minnesota Noxious Weed Law. To report a noxious weed, contact the MDA’s “Arrest the Pest” line at arrest.the.pest@state.mn.us or (888) 545-6684. This article was submitted by the Minnesota Department of Agriculture. v
