Mielke Market Weekly

This column was written for the mar- food prices are inflated in China helps to keting week ending March 26. project upcoming demand and points to China was the proverbial “bull in the china shop” when it came to the latest import data. Reminiscent of its buying in 2014, data was released this week for both January and February, which was the case last year. But HighGround Dairy says January marked the highest volumes on record for any month. MIELKE MARKET WEEKLY “food shortages due to disease and weather, alongside rising needs and a growing middle class. China does not have enough productive farmland, keeping food imports critical. If a pandemic could not stop China from recording record dairy imports in 2020, consumption trends throughout this year will be strong as well. The country is turning to Whole milk powder imports in the two months totaled 530.4 million pounds, up By Lee Mielke protein of any sort, including dairy, driving global values higher in recent weeks 7.4 percent from 2020. Skim milk powder totaled 192.5 million pounds, up 35.9 percent. Butter, at 46.2 milMARKETING where they will stay until Chinese buyers are satisfied with inventory levels.” lion pounds, was down 18.8 percent, but cheese totaled 67.7 million pounds, up 33.7 percent year-todate. Whey product imports amounted to 277.1 million pounds, up 49.2 percent from the same period a year ago. New Zealand exports are faring well, thanks to China, and continue to break records. February data was similar to January, says HighGround Dairy, with growth primarily in whole milk powder and fluid milk and cream. Cheese exports started the

The biggest leap was in whole milk powder from year at five year highs as exports to China accountNew Zealand, according to HighGround Dairy, and ed for 25.5 percent market share for the first two fluid milk and cream from the EU-27. China front- months of 2021. loaded both whole and skim milk powder in January, as they typically do, “but it came at an even stronger pace than usual given global shipping uncertainty.” Back in the United States, February butter stocks climbed to 352.7 million pounds, up 20.8 million pounds or 6.3 percent from the January level, which was revised 3.5 million pounds higher than what

New Zealand, Germany and Poland recorded fresh was reported a month ago. Butter stocks are a highs to start a calendar year, according to whopping 50.9 million pounds or 16.8 percent above HighGround Dairy, and while imports from the Feb. 2020. United States were also strong, whey demand was slightly below that of 2018. China brought in more product from Belarus, EU and Turkey, says HighGround Dairy, blaming shipping issues for the decline. February was the 20th consecutive month butter stocks topped those a year ago. However, the build was smaller than many expected. That is a positive; but butter output remains strong and we’ll get more details in the February Dairy Products report

HighGround Dairy says that remembering why issued April 1.

American-type cheese stocks hit 816 million pounds, up 6.9 million pounds or 0.9 percent from January, which was revised up 8.3 million pounds, and is 37.7 million or 4.8 percent above a year ago.

The ”other” cheese category jumped to 597.5 million pounds, up 19.6 million pounds or 3.4 percent from January and 37.8 million or 6.8 percent above a year ago.

The total cheese inventory stood at 1.44 billion pounds, up 27.8 million pounds or 2 percent from January and 74.1 million pounds or 5.4 percent above a year ago.

February was the fourth month in a row that

See MIELKE, pg. 18

30 COLORS 26-29 GAUGE Standard all around durability

30 COLORS 26-29 GAUGE Standing seam architecture look for half the price

Ryberg optimistic for 2021 season

RYBERG, from pg. 15

so we’re very pleased with the Haney test scores we’re seeing each year.”

Ryberg also employs variable nitrogen application rates for his crops. “Our fields are mapped and we collect yield data on a field-by-field basis. So we do some ‘spoon feeding’ our corn — especially those fields on continuous corn which get upwards of 220 pounds actual nitrogen. We’ve proven we can raise 225-230 bushel yields, so we try to feed according to appetite. On soybeans we’ve cut back to about 160 pounds.

Commodity prices are strong. China continues a major buyer of U.S. farm production — be that corn, soybeans, soybean oil, now ethanol fuels and even pork and beef are getting lots of China buyers too. I asked Ryberg for his predictions for the upcoming crop year.

“Right now we’re pretty optimistic,” he said. “Soil moistures are looking good. We’re hoping to get an early start. If Mother Nature cooperates with us throughout the growing season, 2021 could be a good one.”

With your increasing soil health, are you also considering boosting planting rates of corn, and even soybeans? “We’ve done a little with both crops,” explained Ryberg. “We don’t have much variability in our soils … pretty much flat and black on all our crop land. On seed genetics, we get at least a couple years data before making changes in our corn genetics, even our soybeans. In fact, with good genetics, it’s usually three to four years before a significant change to new pedigrees.”

So the bottom line for Ryberg Farms: Over the past six years they’re averaging $70 to $80 per acre reductions in total production costs. In simple farm jargon, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!” v

30 COLORS 26-29 GAUGE Residential and round roof applications

30 COLORS 26 GAUGE Commercial and Perlin applications

MIELKE, from pg. 17

total cheese stocks grew. Revisions for January amounted to 10 million pounds, which HighGround Dairy says is “a report-to-report build of 38 million pounds, a more bearish number than the initial February data would suggest.” And, with the spring flush upon us, cheese output will no doubt rise and that could push cheese stocks to new record highs.

“Are we dealing with a lack of demand or really strong production?” asks StoneX. “We side with stronger cheese production. Demand was on solid footing back in February and it likely got better in March thanks to improving foodservice sales. But supply of milk is also very good and with programs like Food Box continuing through April (at least), we presume that manufacturers have begun to shift away from constrained production practices of last year. Additionally, we expect some export cheese was sitting in coolers stateside unable to find passage to its final destination.”

The stuck cargo ship in the Suez Canal was not helping matters.

n

Speaking of the Food Box program, the muchawaited 12-hour U.S. Department of Agriculture call to help determine the program’s fate took place March 22. Speakers were given three minutes to address the call and StoneX says “The key takeaway seems to be resounding support to establish a permanent food box program. Beyond that, participants want the USDA to consider more than the lowest price bids, verify what is in the boxes, lighten the weight of the boxes (probably by removing the halfgallon of milk), give longer lead time between awards and delivery, and build out long-term contracts to allow better planning. The takeaway for the markets is that a better organized and executed Food Box program is better handled by participants and less shocking to market prices.”

National Milk called for federal officials to “effectively allocate dairy products as a source of highquality, cost-effective nutrition” in any successor program.

Meanwhile, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says USDA is establishing new programs and efforts to bring financial assistance to farmers,

Prepare for unexpected power outages with a Generac home standby generator

REQUEST A FREE QUOTE! 877-228-5789

ranchers and producers who felt the impact of Covid-19 market disruptions.

“The new initiative, USDA Pandemic Assistance for Producers, will reach a broader set of producers than in previous Covid-19 aid programs,” according to a USDA press release. “USDA is dedicating at least $6 billion toward the new programs. The Department will also develop rules for new programs that will put a greater emphasis on outreach to small and socially disadvantaged producers, specialty crop and organic producers, timber harvesters, as well as provide support for the food supply chain and producers of renewable fuel, among others. Existing programs like the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) will fall within the new initiative and, where statutory authority allows, will be refined to better address the needs of producers.” n

Dairy cow culling was down in February and slightly below February 2020. The latest Livestock Slaughter report shows an estimated 265,200 head were sent to slaughter under federal inspection, down 12,100 head from January and 900 or 0.3 percent below February 2020. Culling in the first two months of 2021 totaled 542,500 head, down 22,100 head or 3.9 percent from the same period a year ago.

In the week ending March 13, 68,800 dairy cows were sent to slaughter, down 1,600 from the previous week but 3,100 or 4.7 percent more than that week a year ago.

While slaughter is below that of a year ago, StoneX points out, “We’re killing them at about the same pace we can replace them which matches up with the slowdown in herd growth the USDA reported for February.”

n

Cheese prices continued to weaken in the first part of the last full week of March but then rallied. The cheddar blocks fell to $1.67 per pound on March 24, the lowest since March 3. They closed March 26 at $1.72, down 7 cents on the week but 13 cents above a year ago when the Covid factor began hitting the markets. The blocks tumbled 24.75 cents that week and the barrels were down 9 cents.

The barrels slumped to $1.4375 on March 21, but finished March 26 at $1.4625. This is up a penny on the week, 12.25 cents above a year ago, but 25.75 cents below the blocks. Sales for the week included four cars of block and three of barrel.

Dairy Market News reports that some Midwestern cheese producers are and have been running full schedules while others are picking up. Food service cheese demand is not at pre-pandemic levels but has picked up quite a bit in the late winter/early spring season. Cheese availability reports were similar to those of production and vary plant to plant. Some producers are moving cheese out the door while others have available loads here and there. Market tones are mixed.

Food service demand for western cheese continues

See MIELKE, pg. 21

Walk-In Access enrollment underway

Enrollment is now open for Minnesota’s Walk-In Access program, which pays private landowners to allow public hunting on their lands. This year, landowners can receive $18 per acre enrolled. And the program is expanding to include more counties.

“We’re excited to see the program grow,” said Troy Dale, interim program supervisor. “Enrollment in the Walk-In Access program will be available for landowners in more than 50 Minnesota counties.”

Landowners who are interested in enrolling their land must meet the following criteria:

Parcels must be at least 40 acres in size or it must be contiguous with another WIA parcel that is 40 acres or more in size.

Priority is given to lands enrolled in a conservation program such as the federal Conservation Reserve Program or the state Reinvest in Minnesota Reserve Program, or other state and federal conservation programs. Lands not enrolled in a conservation program may be eligible if high quality natural cover exists and is maintained by the landowner.

Lands within 500 feet of a home or corral occupied by livestock cannot be enrolled, unless they are occupied by the cooperator or his/her livestock.

The enrolled parcel must be accessible from a public road.

The habitat must be maintained through the enrollment period.

Landowners, or the state, may terminate the contract at any time (effective 30 days after written notice of termination received).

Hunters must purchase a $3 permit with a hunting license to access enrolled land. Walk-In Access parcels are marked with highly visible signs posted by DNR staff.

Participating hunters can access Walk-In Access land Sept. 1 through May 31. Hunting laws are enforced by DNR conservation officers. Landowners are not required to purchase additional liability insurance.

Landowners can sign up for the program at their local soil and water conservation district office or by contacting Troy Dale, program coordinator, at (507) 537-6616.

More information is available at mndnr.gov/walkin.

This article was submitted by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. v